HS2: Have we passed the point of no return?

[DerekC]

G
But all this is entirely hypothetical. The act authorising the work has passed into UK law. What would be needed to cancel it legally? Possibly another act of parliament (anyone able to confirm?)

More importantly, there is no political incentive to stop the work. It's a tiny fraction of overall government spending. There is no significant political impetus to stop the project. All the main parties support it, and most of the blocks within those parties as well, so even if the Tories or Labour were to see a more significant split than at present, the new parties would still support it. Perhaps the ERG would not be in favour, but then they would be under massive pressure to show some investment in the Midlands and North and cancelling HS2 would completely go against that.

Remember that all the Act does is authorise the work. That's not the same as commit - so I doubt if another act would be required to cancel it.

It's all very well to say that there is no political incentive to stop the work, but with the current very fluid party situation it would only require some group (Nigel Farage and UKIP2?) to come up with a vote-winning bandwagon which includes cancellation of HS2 to panic this government into cancellation - the calculation will be "does this help us win the next election?" That is, after all, how Brexit happened.

 

[sprunt]

it would be far less hassle to simply delay other expensive and controversial projects that aren't yet under construction (for example Stonehenge tunnel, lower Thames Crossing, Transpennine road tunnel). There is no significant political impetus to stop the project.

I'd be surprised if there was more political impetus to cancel big road projects than a big rail project. There seem to be far more people that can be wheeled onto the evening news to make the case for road than for rail./

 

[LLivery]

I am puzzled by people's suggestion (assuming such a suggestion has seriously been made) that a committed project of national importance would be cancelled. Am I correct in assuming this is a result in the difficulties faced by California's High Speed programme?

If the latter, with the current disfunction of the US government (and California especially - thanks to their referendum system of government, never works, that!*) in mind I see no desire in aping their decision making process. Although California, to be fair, does have some nuggets of enlightenment to be mined, this is not one of them.

* Well maybe in Switzerland?

Nothing to do with California. I don't compare any European transport project with the US; you might as well compare an apple with a brick. I'm just pessimistic at the moment. I always believed HS2 should've been planned as a 320km/h railway, emulating French LGVs from the outset instead of overdoing it with 400km/h. I still believe that and it seems now they do too. I also believe building the Manchester and Leeds branches at the same time is asking for trouble.

But let's look at the wider picture. Three Nuclear Power Stations have been cancelled; rail electrification has been cancelled / is over budget; Heathrow has been a never ending saga which won't end anytime soon, Crossrail 1 is late and over budget and Crossrail 2 has gone rather quiet. In the coming years, Government finances aren't going to get much (if at all) better, likewise for the economy. I can't help but feel like it's just one thing after another and HS2 will have to cut a bit more than the line speed.

 

[underbank]

I'd be surprised if there was more political impetus to cancel big road projects than a big rail project. There seem to be far more people that can be wheeled onto the evening news to make the case for road than for rail./

More people use roads than rail. Labour lost a lot of support during their self-imposed period of having no new roads nor improvement projects.

 

[mmh]

Which is already full!

On the other HS2 thread I've asked multiple times where the additional HS2 services will go north of Birmingham / Crewe, given there'll be years before any extensions, even if they are built.

I was told it doesn't matter there'll be no additional track capacity to the north as it's not full.

That's a big reason I'm so cynical about HS2, even its supporters don't seem to agree what it's actually for.

 

[MarkyT]

More people use roads than rail. Labour lost a lot of support during their self-imposed period of having no new roads nor improvement projects.

They were incumbent during and immediately following the huge worldwide financial meltdown and recession. They had no chance surviving after that as would have been the fate of any party in power. Even given that, they didn't lose THAT badly in 2010 and a hung parliament resulted in the CON-LD coalition. It had absolutely nothing to do with road building or transport generally which is not usually a major deciding factor in voting intentions. Populism, especially as potentially exploited by the right wing free market libertarian wing of the Tories, is the biggest threat to HS2 with both Rees Mogg and Johnson taking an anti position. What I can't understand is the Green Party's stance on HS2. I guess they'd rather people continued to fly in large numbers on longer distance domestic routes!

 

[yorkie]

What I can't understand is the Green Party's stance on HS2. I guess they'd rather people continued to fly in large numbers on longer distance domestic routes!

Feel free to post this at Why are people opposed to HS2?

 

[Ianno87]

On the other HS2 thread I've asked multiple times where the additional HS2 services will go north of Birmingham / Crewe, given there'll be years before any extensions, even if they are built.

I was told it doesn't matter there'll be no additional track capacity to the north as it's not full.

Because, for Phases 1 and 2a, HS2 is likely to be (give or take) a direct replacement of the current Pendolino service. e.g 3tph Manchester-Euston will be replaced by 3tph Manchester-HS2-Euston.

 

[6Gman]

On the other HS2 thread I've asked multiple times where the additional HS2 services will go north of Birmingham / Crewe, given there'll be years before any extensions, even if they are built.

I was told it doesn't matter there'll be no additional track capacity to the north as it's not full.

That's a big reason I'm so cynical about HS2, even its supporters don't seem to agree what it's actually for.

Well, you'll never hear me say that!

From 2027 to 2033 (on current plans) it's going to be very tight.

 

[trebor79]

Remember that all the Act does is authorise the work. That's not the same as commit - so I doubt if another act would be required to cancel it.

I'm not sure that's correct actually.
Wasn't the Midland Railway more or less forced to build the Settle and Carlisle line despite the fact that they no longer needed or wanted to, having settled their differences with the LNWR whilst the Act was going through parliament?
ISTR they applied for another act to reverse it but parliament had got fed up with various railway schemes wasting their time in this way and said no.

 

[The Ham]

View media item 3340
Given that we've passed (and for some regions by quite some margin) the point at which HS2 phase 1 was justified on passenger growth (IIRC circa 52%) and we're still several years out from phase one opening it would take a fairly brave politician to scrap phase 1.

Phase 2 to Manchester is also fairly safe in passenger number terms in that between the North West and London growth is up 70% and phase 2 was justified at about 95% and we are still a long way out from that opening.

Phase 2 to the East (or Phase 3), the numbers aren't quite so clear, but still generally higher than the model suggested for the time passed. I'd expect to see a bit of a jump once the 80x's become the norm on the ECML due to the extra seats and split services serving more locations.

However I'd have thought that once Manchester starts to see the benefits from the released platform capacity by no longer having long distance trains blocking platforms and allowing more longer length services then Leeds will start to push harder for HS2 to be extended to it.

There are 2 trains which arrive into Manchester in the morning peak, and chances are they would still be needed, however there's 3 which leave which could be scaled back.

Let's assume that one is removed getting up a 11*23m platform that could allow two services which are 3 coaches long to become 5 coaches (6 if 20m coaches) to use this platform. These in turn are removed from other platforms, which allow those platforms to be used by longer trains, this could then allow a further two services to be extended to 5 coaches.

That's then 4 services which benefit from the released capacity. However if the long distance trains have a 40 minute turn around and the local services are 20 minutes then that's 8 services which benefit. That's quite a significant improvement, even if there's no extra paths for trains.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Half built bridges or tunnels won't happen but equally completed bridges or tunnels to nowhere will be politically unacceptable, so these things if cancelled end up in negotiation phase with the contractors around how much they'll get paid to not do something.

You mean like that railway bridge over the WCML in Bletchley?

 

[Andrew1395]

Surely the point of no return is when there is a national consensus (I mean the politicians and senior advisors) that the scheme is Definately worth spending the money on. It's not just the capital but also the impact on the industries revenue. At the moment I think the scheme is vulnerable because of economic uncertainty; uncertainty about how much it will cost to build and fit out with rolling stock, systems and staff and what the revenue impact willl be. All no doubt worked out in economic models. But the context is not good. One is BREXIt impacts on the costs, the broader economy and political situation in the next 36 months, all very uncertain. Crosrail is not helping the cause. It is such a big investment it's easy to list lots of things you could do instead, which could swing that concensus against proceeding. Hit critical weight and the project gets scrappped. Already there are murmurings HS2 will do less to increase national productivity than schemes in Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds etc to increase mobility within those cities. Once they start laying track beyond Old Oak Common, the new London & Birmingham railway will happen.

 

[jfowkes]

Given that we've passed (and for some regions by quite some margin) the point at which HS2 phase 1 was justified on passenger growth (IIRC circa 52%) and we're still several years out from phase one opening it would take a fairly brave politician to scrap phase 1.

This assumes that the public at large understand that capacity is the problem that HS2 aims to solve. But a lot of people seem to think it's about pure speed between Birmingham and London (and so do most of the media) and through that lens it seems like a complete waste of money.

A brave politician might cancel HS2 because it's a short-term vote winner. The fact that it's a bad decision for the country in the medium to long term is mostly irrelevant.

 

[Andrew1395]

I'm not sure that's correct actually.
Wasn't the Midland Railway more or less forced to build the Settle and Carlisle line despite the fact that they no longer needed or wanted to, having settled their differences with the LNWR whilst the Act was going through parliament?
ISTR they applied for another act to reverse it but parliament had got fed up with various railway schemes wasting their time in this way and said no.

I am not sure, but isn't passing the budget an act of Parliament. And if the budget pulls the plug on funding and gets passed. Isn't that the equivalent of an act of parliament scrapping the scheme!

 

[quantinghome]

More people use roads than rail. Labour lost a lot of support during their self-imposed period of having no new roads nor improvement projects.

Labour only cut the roads budget in their first term (1997-2001) and got re-elected in another landslide. After that they turned on the taps on again, and even kept going after the financial crash. The Conservative/Lib-Dem coalition then cut a lot of road schemes in 2010.

Ultimately I don't think there are many votes in road schemes. It's just not that high on most people's agendas.

 

[al78]

More people use roads than rail. Labour lost a lot of support during their self-imposed period of having no new roads nor improvement projects.

Really, I thought Tony Blair and the Iraq war was what cost labour a lot of support, not road projects. Whenever I have heard people criticise political parties, not once can I remember transport being mentioned.

 

[quantinghome]

Remember that all the Act does is authorise the work. That's not the same as commit - so I doubt if another act would be required to cancel it.

It's all very well to say that there is no political incentive to stop the work, but with the current very fluid party situation it would only require some group (Nigel Farage and UKIP2?) to come up with a vote-winning bandwagon which includes cancellation of HS2 to panic this government into cancellation - the calculation will be "does this help us win the next election?" That is, after all, how Brexit happened.

Any calculation of that sort would conclude that there is no political gain from cancelling HS2. People may have an opinion on it, but the issue is not a vote-swinger. The only constituencies where the issue has had any discernible electoral impact are those on the route through the Chilterns. Even there it's not much of an issue, and it's even less noticeable in the Midlands and North.

 

[dangie]

....A brave politician might cancel HS2 because it's a short-term vote winner. The fact that it's a bad decision for the country in the medium to long term is mostly irrelevant.

Correct. Governments only think towards the next General Election. A long term benefit for the country can't compete with a short term vote winner. Politicians aren't going to put themselves out of a job. Be like turkeys voting for Christmas.

 

[Journeyman]

Really, I thought Tony Blair and the Iraq war was what cost labour a lot of support, not road projects. Whenever I have heard people criticise political parties, not once can I remember transport being mentioned.

It tends to be very low down the list of what makes people vote for particular parties, although that said renationalisation of the railways is a popular Labour policy at the moment. Shame they're completely incapable of getting anything else right, though. I won't touch them with a bargepole until they stop supporting Brexit. I will never, ever vote for a Brexit-supporting party or candidate again.

 

[The Ham]

Correct. Governments only think towards the next General Election. A long term benefit for the country can't compete with a short term vote winner. Politicians aren't going to put themselves out of a job. Be like turkeys voting for Christmas.

Toy may get some MP's along the route may say that they are against HS2, however if someone else standing opposite them suggested that to provide the required capacity for long distance services local services needed to be cut (as an example local stops on a Chiltern service would be skipped to accommodate those going to Birmingham) public opinion may quickly swing back the opposite direction.

The often cited "lengthen and electrify of Chiltern" alternitve would only gain circa 15% extra seats between London and Birmingham. When this is viewed against the 70% increase between London and the West Midlands in the last 9 years, it's not going to last that long before something else is needed, such as more Birmingham services potentially at the expense of local services.

 

[matacaster]

HS2 will only get as far as Birmingham. The likelihood of massive projects like Phase 2A/B actually occurring is proportional to their distance from London and their cost. Take a look at some of the recent expensive electrification projects

Great Western electrification peters out somewhere in Wales. MML electrification peters out at (now) Market Harborough. HS2 never even seriously considered north of Manchester or York.

Transpennine has already been descoped to only include partial electrification, no W12 freight improvements between east and west ports. Its oop north so why worry!

If these had been anywhere near London, then they would have happened, with NO pairing back - eg Crossrail. With HS2 extensive and expensive HS2 tunnelling (because everything near London is of special scientific interest / beautiful / too near where important constituents or the MP lives) when in Yorkshire they would just use a bulldozer.

Quite simply, if its too far from London to be of interest (excepting bits wholly within Scotland), it ain't likely to happen.

 

[J-Rod]

I agree. Defence of the country is far more important than getting from A to B ten minutes quicker. Didn't stop the new government scrapping the project though.

About the TSR2 project cancellation being similar to this... the two aren't comparable. That's like comparing apples with... a large hadron collider.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If these had been anywhere near London, then they would have happened, with NO pairing back - eg Crossrail. With HS2 extensive and expensive HS2 tunnelling (because everything near London is of special scientific interest / beautiful / too near where important constituents or the MP lives) when in Yorkshire they would just use a bulldozer.

Not responding to most of your points as they are off-topic for this thread. But as a matter of factual clarification, Crossrail DID get pared back.

 

[camflyer]

Not responding to most of your points as they are off-topic for this thread. But as a matter of factual clarification, Crossrail DID get pared back.

Plus, of course, the HS2-HS1 link *in London* was scrapped in order to reduce the overall budget. The plans for the redevelopment of Euston have also been scaled back. The original plan was to totally replace the station but there is now going be be a more limited upgrade.

 

[squizzler]

I'm not sure what his handle is on this forum but rail photographer Paul Bigland often does a summary on the state of HS2 opposition on his blog. The latest gen is here and suggests they attract very little following in the real world:

Edit: I have been reminded that forum rules require the gist of a link to be quoted in-post. You'll have to follow the link for the relevant tables, but as always please support enthusiast rail sites by clicking through the page itself whee you can.

https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/53911337/posts/11920

Yep, it’s that time of month again, as February morphs into March I’ve manfully ploughed my way through hours of rubbish to ignore the hyperventilating and crunch the actual numbers. There’s been more mush than usual in February as Hs2 antis were cock a hoop at the fact Hs2 would be featured in Channel 4’s Dispatches. Once again, they hyped it as the ‘smoking gun’ that would finally kill off Hs2! How many times have we heard that now? Allied to Dispatches were efforts by the same small group of right-wing Journo’s associated with the residents of 55 Tufton St to spin as many negative articles as they could in the media. We were (un)reliably informed that Teresa May’s Cabinet couldn’t wait to kill off Hs2 and that it was only a matter of time now. How many times have we heard that one too? Needless to say, February came and went – and so did Liam Halligans lazy and badly researched Dispatches programme (filleted here). Despite all the froth, Hs2’s still here. Informed sources who’ve been talking to members of the Tory party have told me this was always a non-story, that it was posturing by individuals who privately admit there’s no chance of Hs2 being killed off at this late hour. To say that the Cabinet are rather more concerned about an issue beginning with B would be an understatement.

So, what’s all this hoo-ha done for StopHs2 on social media? The answer is – very little. Here’s their Twitter statistics over 2019.

 

[JamesT]

I'm not sure what his handle is on this forum but rail photographer Paul Bigland often does a summary on the state of HS2 opposition on his blog. The latest gen is here and suggests they attract very little following in the real world: https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/53911337/posts/11920

I believe he's @Snapper here.

 

[The Ham]

I believe he's @Snapper here.

Indeed

 

[Ianno87]

If these had been anywhere near London, then they would have happened, with NO pairing back - eg Crossrail. With HS2 extensive and expensive HS2 tunnelling (because everything near London is of special scientific interest / beautiful / too near where important constituents or the MP lives) when in Yorkshire they would just use a bulldozer.

.

Last time I checked, the proposal to get HS2 into central Manchester was... a 9 mile long tunnel.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Last time I checked, the proposal to get HS2 into central Manchester was... a 9 mile long tunnel.

...along with a rebuilding of Piccadilly on a scale similar to that of London Bridge.