EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[SteveP29]

Get this, study economics I did. Supply and demand. SUPPLY IS LIKELY TO GO UP, from the rest of the world and may be cheaper .
Europe will have a shrunken market if we buy from others. Remember what I said sometime ago. Hugh traffis are put on food outside the EU ie beef.

You realise that tariffs will be charged on anything we import until a trade deal is sorted out, don't you? so then how will it possibly be cheaper than what we import now? Of course there'll be more supply, because anyone in any country will be clamouring to charge the import tariff, making more from their products, knowing we are desperate for the produce.

I can't see consumers being too keen on paying more to have fruit and veg all year round that the importers will have to pay, passed on through the chain of consumers, so get set for only being able to buy and eat in season fruit and veg, strawberries only in the summer months etc.

Do you still subscribe to the theory that Europe needs us more than we need them when you say Europe will have a shrunken market? The Germans still need to sell cars in the UK etc.

Just think of the new free trade deals they've just done with Japan and Singapore, there's two massive markets, one of them bigger than the UK itself, that will more than make up for the loss of the UK, plus, they'll diversify, change with the changing times and markets, all I hear from those who voted leave is make Great Britain great AGAIN, completely forgetting that our past 'greatness' was forged by exploitation and subjugation, living in the past with the same old tired ideas. I don't know if you've ever noticed, but there's no country on this planet that's now part of an empire, except with the exception of the Crimea, so we won't be building our prosperity or feeding our population on that.

We're on our own and we're ripe for exploitation, I hope you're prepared.

 

[JonasB]

By road and ship or tunnel, though I doubt if it'll actually happen as there's already overcapacity in mainland Europe.

And it will be more expensive, and hence give the german and french plants an advantage.

I don't mean to derail the thread any further, but it's hardly the EU's fault that the british manufacturers were not able to compete with the other European ones.

 

[ainsworth74]

They can deliver their vehicles to most of Europe quite easy. How do you deliver a vehicle built for German or Dutch loading gauge from a factory in Derby?

So not a fault with the EU then? More to do with decisions made by private businesses and UK government policy?

 

[nidave]

Your do not believe what they say, look who did not sign the letter ie Morrisons. They probably looking for an excuse to justify raising prices.
PS Morrisons have their own horticultural unit in Europe.

It's all a big conspiracy. The fact that everyone works hard to stop it from becoming a reality doesn't seem to matter. Did you think the y2k bug was project fear as well.???

 

[ainsworth74]

And it will be more expensive, and hence give the german and french plants an advantage.

I don't mean to derail the thread any further, but it's hardly the EU's fault that the british manufacturers were not able to compete with the other European ones.

Aha, I see we agree!

 

[nidave]

Theresa May now whipping against her own backstop, her own idea that she spent two years negotiating, whilst still insisting the public shouldn’t have a chance to change their minds.

 

[Senex]

Theresa May now whipping against her own backstop, her own idea that she spent two years negotiating, whilst still insisting the public shouldn’t have a chance to change their minds.

Crazy, isn't it? Is one of the biggest losers from all this Brexit chaos the credibility of the Westminster system of government? The two-party system seems to have broken down completely. May's government seems to be an attempt at a dictatorship by a cabal whose sole mantra is to deliver on a decision taken 2½ years ago whilst ignoring all that has happened since then. We have an Opposition that has simply failed to oppose and question and whose leadership rather appears to be out of tune with the views of a substantial majority of the party membership (having promised to give a greater voice to grass-roots members whilst in leadership-campaigning mode). And there is no strong and coherent body to give a voice to the 16.1 million who were on the losing side. The Westminster hatred of political compromise is letting us all down very badly here. And in my opinion a broken system is made even worse by everything coming to a head at a time when we have very unimpressive senior politicians on both sides (and perhaps the worst PM of all time?).

 

[Cowley]

Crazy, isn't it? Is one of the biggest losers from all this Brexit chaos the credibility of the Westminster system of government? The two-party system seems to have broken down completely. May's government seems to be an attempt at a dictatorship by a cabal whose sole mantra is to deliver on a decision taken 2½ years ago whilst ignoring all that has happened since then. We have an Opposition that has simply failed to oppose and question and whose leadership rather appears to be out of tune with the views of a substantial majority of the party membership (having promised to give a greater voice to grass-roots members whilst in leadership-campaigning mode). And there is no strong and coherent body to give a voice to the 16.1 million who were on the losing side. The Westminster hatred of political compromise is letting us all down very badly here. And in my opinion a broken system is made even worse by everything coming to a head at a time when we have very unimpressive senior politicians on both sides (and perhaps the worst PM of all time?).

Pretty well summed up. We are an absolute laughing stock at the moment.

 

[nlogax]

Get this, study economics I did.

Really? Because I'm somewhat skeptical.

Supply and demand. SUPPLY IS LIKELY TO GO UP, from the rest of the world and may be cheaper .
Europe will have a shrunken market if we buy from others. Remember what I said sometime ago. Hugh traffis are put on food outside the EU ie beef.

You really are the Flat Earther of Brexiteers.

 

[Muttley]

Really? Because I'm somewhat skeptical.



You really are the Flat Earther of Brexiteers.

If you're so superior it should be easy to pull his argument to pieces.
Seeing as all you can do is issue personal insults it appears that you can't.

 

[HH]

I'm waiting to find out who Hugh Traffis is.

 

[nlogax]

If you're so superior it should be easy to pull his argument to pieces.
Seeing as all you can do is issue personal insults it appears that you can't.

Muttley, the research has already been done and presented. By our own House of Lords committee, amongst other bodies and organisations. If you can be bothered to read;

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/129/129.pdf

The UK Trade Policy Observatory’s modelling predicts price increases of 5.8% for meat, 8.1% for dairy products, 4% for vegetables, 3.1% for fruit, 1.8% for bread and cereals and 1.5% for fish.20 Dairy UK, in evidence to the EU Select Committee’s inquiry into ‘Brexit: deal or no deal’, stated their modelling showed “a WTO schedule would push up the wholesale price of cheese by one third with retail prices rising by 20%”.

Or you may want to try Barclays' "Scale, Disruption and Brexit" report, a summary of which can be found at https://www.barclayscorporate.com/c...xpertise/grocery-sector-executive-summary.pdf

What would be the impact of a hard, or no-deal, Brexit? The outcome of a hard, or no-deal Brexit (where the UK and EU apply their standard tariffs to each other’s trade) would impose the highest quantum of new costs. Based on import statistics in the 12 months leading up to May 2018, this would amount to new tariffs of £9.3bn per year on food and drink imports from the EU.21 Food and drink tariff rates will be higher than those in any other supply chain. All stages within the food supply chain will experience increased costs, with retailers hit disproportionately as processed goods attract higher duties than raw materials and semi-processed goods. Wholesalers will also experience significant cost increases, but to a lesser degree. Non food Cars Apparel Food and drink Source: WTO, HMRC, Retail Economics analysis. Meanwhile, discounters at the lower end of the market, trading in meat, dairy, cereals and wine, will experience a heavier tariff burden compared with companies operating at the upper end of the market. In essence, a large proportion of the tariff burden is based on the weight of the imported produce, meaning it does not discriminate against quality.

41% of our current food supply is imported either directly from the EU or from countries with whom the EU has a trade agreement. Maybe @Basher in his infinite wisdom can explain to me how, in a no-deal scenario, food is going to be cheaper with a background of the following;

- Throttled supply chains
- An average 23% tariff rise on food and drink
- Ever tighter margins in the supermarket sector
- A further reduction in the value of Sterling

The problem I have is the out and out refusal (of some) to listen to and acknowledge facts collated and presented by people who know what they're talking about. Some Leavers are absolutely intent on belief in a financial model that will never exist in the real world post no-deal Brexit. It absolutely beggars belief. What is it that drives this behavior? No different than Flat Earthers.

 

[Muttley]

This'll be the same HoP that said there'd have to be emergency (punishment) budget the day after a Leave vote ?
The same Barclays that had to go cap in hand to the Abu Dhabi govt because they couldn't see the biggest financial crash since Wall St coming ?

 

[AM9]

... The problem I have is the out and out refusal (of some) to listen to and acknowledge facts collated and presented by people who know what they're talking about. Some Leavers are absolutely intent on belief in a financial model that will never exist in the real world post no-deal Brexit. It absolutely beggars belief. What is it that drives this behavior? No different than Flat Earthers.

About the only explanation I can see for some of the comments is that they are trolls.
Most of them don't seem capable of changing the record either.

 

[nlogax]

About the only explanation for some of the comments is that they are trolls.

That they are. It's pretty evident.

 

[nidave]

This'll be the same HoP that said there'd have to be emergency (punishment) budget the day after a Leave vote ?
The same Barclays that had to go cap in hand to the Abu Dhabi govt because they couldn't see the biggest financial crash since Wall St coming ?

Again you seen to be forgetting the work done by places like the Bank of England to ensure these predictions were mitigated.

Mitigation work is going on right now for a few weeks of no deal. Stockpiling parts, food and medicine. Are you saying that this all not nessescary as you know better?

 

[thenorthern]

Coal?! Coal?!? Try steel, chemicals and shipbuilding! We had nowt to do with coal round these parts. That was County Durham and Yorkshire that got down and dirty. The closest we came to mining is potash and anhydrite none of that dirty coal!



It could have given state aid (and in the case of Port Talbot did) and indeed a report from one think tank has suggested that we could give triple the amount of state aid than we do currently!



You'll forgive me but the blame lies with government ideology not with EU rules. You will notice that steel plants do still exist on the continent. I wonder if that isn't because their governments decided to provide more aid than ours?



EU rules require open competition. If Bombardier had been able to better the bid made by Siemens they would have won the order. It's also worth recalling that whilst they weren't built here there was still a reasonable amount of UK content and Siemens Rail employ more people in the UK than Bombardier.



How many factories are there in Germany? France? Italy? How many vehicles do they produce per year? Why are they more competative than UK producers were? The EU didn't require us to close down factories. If they'd been profitable and winning orders they'd still be open.



I am under the impression that there's nothing in the rules that prevents your tender specifiying either "home" country manufacture or "x percentage" of production in your "home" country. However, of course, if the Government choose not to take advantage of this how is it then the EUs fault?

I stand corrected on Coal in Teesside.

With the other things though a lot of it is down to interpretation as EU policy doesn't/does allow certain things depending on who you speak to and what that person's views on the EU are.

 

[Muttley]

Again you seen to be forgetting the work done by places like the Bank of England to ensure these predictions were mitigated.

Mitigation work is going on right now for a few weeks of no deal. Stockpiling parts, food and medicine. Are you saying that this all not nessescary as you know better?

Not at all Dave.
What I'm saying is we've had 2.5yrs of no planning at all, and now we're in the final weeks the govt has suddenly realised how much work needs doing. And if we let the date slip that work won't get done until we get into the final weeks again.
Nothing bites like a deadline.
Also the BoE is now highly politicised, which is a shame after Labour have them their independence.

 

[Esker-pades]

This'll be the same HoP that said there'd have to be emergency (punishment) budget the day after a Leave vote ?
The same Barclays that had to go cap in hand to the Abu Dhabi govt because they couldn't see the biggest financial crash since Wall St coming ?

"They got something wrong in the past therefore they can never get anything right ever."
If there is evidence that the UK will be better off under a no-deal scenario, please share it with us. It would be so much simpler if no-deal wasn't bad.

Not at all Dave.
What I'm saying is we've had 2.5yrs of no planning at all...

The Department for Exiting the EU was working on it (according to David Davis, so this is obviously true) whilst he was the secretary of state for that department.

...and now we're in the final weeks the govt has suddenly realised how much work needs doing.

The government is useless. True.

And if we let the date slip that work won't get done until we get into the final weeks again.
Nothing bites like a deadline.

Perhaps trying to get ourselves out of 40 years worth of complicated trade, economic and legal union takes longer than 2 years? Perhaps it requires proper thought rather than this massive piss-up of a government? Maybe the civil service could help? Oh no, they're apparently a bunch of remoaners.

I'd rather rely on something more concrete than the "staying up all night in the library before deadline day" student option. It honestly doesn't work.

Also the BoE is now highly politicised, which is a shame after Labour have them their independence.

Taken straight from the mouth of Mr J Rees-Mogg. Could you provide some evidence for that please?

 

[Senex]

I'd rather rely on something more concrete than the "staying up all night in the library before deadline day" student option. It honestly doesn't work.

But that's so British, isn't it?

 

[Esker-pades]

But that's so British, isn't it?

Pretty much. This entire response from the Leave campaign seems to be the same as when my grandmother is trying to make me less worried: "It'll all work out in the end".

 

[Clip]

Based on import statistics in the 12 months leading up to May 2018, this would amount to new tariffs of £9.3bn per year on food and drink imports from the EU

Although the latest figures on how much we pay to the EU yearly is about £9 Billion per year so if the government so wished it could use that to balance out the tarrifs leaving only £0.3billion to be spread over the year.. which then doesnt seem too much does it?

 

[Senex]

Nice near-juxtaposition on R4 PM programme just after five this afternoon when they played May speaking today on why she would now ask for negotiations on the "deal" to be re-opened and then no more than a couple of minutes later May a fortnight ago saying why her deal could not be re-opened. What a disgrace this woman is, clinging to office though totally out of her depth and shewing all the time ever more clearly the degree to which she is in thrall to the Hard Brexit wing of her party and wants their Brexit, not the Brexit "for the British people" of which she so often speaks. (A little later on we heard Anne-Marie Trevelyan trying to tell us how stubborn those dreadful EU people are ...)

 

[nlogax]

She is dire. The government's approach is dire. The opposition is dire.

And now I read that if - as the EU has insisted all along and which should be of no surprise to anyone - the deal cannot be renegotiated regardless of what's decided this evening in the HoC, then the hardened Leavers will be putting the blame at the door of Brussels.

Pass the single malt.

 

[Senex]

She is dire. The government's approach is dire. The opposition is dire.

And now I read that if - as the EU has insisted all along and which should be of no surprise to anyone - the deal cannot be renegotiated regardless of what's decided this evening in the HoC, then the hardened Leavers will be putting the blame at the door of Brussels.

Pass the single malt.

We’re going to need a good few bottles ....

 

[nidave]

In a truly epic display of collective ignorance and stupidity, a petition to UK parliament has gained almost 350k signatures, requesting that Ireland adopts both Sterling and the Euro as dual currencies to resolve Britain’s Brexit woes. It seems no other sovereign country matters any more.
This isn’t just dumb, it’s hugely disrespectful to Ireland, building on John Humphrys’ ludicrous suggestion that RoI join the UK in leaving the EU.

Farage is now telling Ireland they should leave the eu and join the UK and was rightly knocked back on RTE
https://twitter.com/ClaireByrneLive/status/1090020771399852032

 

[Ianno87]

In a truly epic display of collective ignorance and stupidity, a petition to UK parliament has gained almost 350k signatures, requesting that Ireland adopts both Sterling and the Euro as dual currencies to resolve Britain’s Brexit woes. It seems no other sovereign country matters any more.
This isn’t just dumb, it’s hugely disrespectful to Ireland, building on John Humphrys’ ludicrous suggestion that RoI join the UK in leaving the EU.

Farage is now telling Ireland they should leave the eu and join the UK and was rightly knocked back on RTE
https://twitter.com/ClaireByrneLive/status/1090020771399852032

The mind boggles.

Then again, I wonder how many people clicked to sign without reading the whole text...

 

[Basher]

Watched the BBC2 Europe in crisis last night.
Poor David Cameron if got nothing but embarrassment from the EU, the EU just do not want any changes to systems, policy.
I felt embarrassed at what went on, the same is happening to May. She just put up two fingers to them and walkaway, she is not going to get anything.
The second episode is on next Monday.

 

[Groningen]

What understand Britons with a short space of time. About 2,5 years is not time enough. Do i also understand that in Ireland and Northern Ireland both euro and pound are used according to the petition?

 

[nidave]

What understand Britons with a short space of time. About 2,5 years is not time enough. Do i also understand that in Ireland and Northern Ireland both euro and pound are used according to the petition?

A lot of N. Ireland shops take the euro anyway with a conversion based on the current rate - a lot of places on both sides of the border take both as well - so its happening but wont stop the issues of having a hard border which the good Friday agreement sates cant be there - lots of contracts for businesses in N. Ireland will pretty much be null and void until renegotiated with whatever ruled the UK decide on or if no rules - therefore things like 9% of electricity generating capacity from the RoI used in N. Ireland becomes void and lights go out. No one can re negotiate these sorts of contracts as no one knows what the final state of play is going to be.

Everyone seems to focus on the people but there is a LOT more to it like goods (despite this mythical technological system which no other country uses as a counter to that) and services. Before people replay - well the companies wont just stop - hahahah If a contract becomes void you dont just continue as is until its sorted. Remember these are private businesses. some will as a show of good will but lots wont if they may not get paid.

of course what I am saying is just project fear.