West Coast Franchise speculation

[Bletchleyite]

Milton Keynes is suburbia, not a city out in the regions, like Coventry or Stoke.

It's not. Look at a map.

In any case, the benefits are to do with long distance services, not London.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well of course you wouldn't, you live in Milton Keynes and think HS2 is to get rid of pesky long distance trains getting in the way.

That is precisely what it is for - 6 tracking the south WCML, basically.

 

[Carlisle]

The 110mph 350s aren't actually that much slower than the Pendolinos north of Preston, considering they make more stops. Substitute a higher-performance 125mph unit and selective increases to non-EPS speeds and I think the difference will be in the single digits of minutes between Preston and Scotland.

It doesn’t sound like the best possible solution given Pendilinos can often reach their Scottish destinations 10+ mins early under present schedules, alongside the possibility of 140 mph running if ETRMS is ever installed, but I’d agree right now it appears to be most likley compromse that we’ll eventually end up with

 

[The Planner]

It doesn’t sound like the best possible solution given Pendilinos can often reach their Scottish destinations 10+ mins early under present schedules

Got anything to back that one up? Would love to see where they are making 10 minutes up.

 

[AndrewE]

Got anything to back that one up? Would love to see where they are making 10 minutes up.

It is noticeable that most of the class 9 Edinburgh trains wait around at Gorgie (approaching Haymarket East Jn ) with about 5 mins in the schedule, and a Glasgow picked at random (http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y82472/2019/01/08/advanced) has an 10 extra minutes in its schedule between Carstairs and Glasgow Cen.

 

[Aictos]

Milton Keynes is suburbia, not a city out in the regions, like Coventry or Stoke.

That is one of the stupidest things I've seen here, Milton Keynes is a large town not a city!

So by that, do you regard St Albans, Cambridge, Peterborough etc as suburbia or a city in the regions?

 

[The Ham]

That is one of the stupidest things I've seen here, Milton Keynes is a large town not a city!

So by that, do you regard St Albans, Cambridge, Peterborough etc as suburbia or a city in the regions?

Given that all three of them have city status, unlike Milton Keynes, the answer you are provided with should be obvious.

However given that MK had a population of about double that of Cambridge and more than that of the combined population of St Albans and Peterborough, you can never be sure what people will say.

 

[Meerkat]

The key bit is “suburbia”. If their main market is commuting then I would regard them as suburbia, and services would be less speed sensitive.

 

[Class 170101]

and a Glasgow picked at random (http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y82472/2019/01/08/advanced) has an 10 extra minutes in its schedule between Carstairs and Glasgow Cen.

3 minutes and maybe the performance minute would be mandatory as part of Timetable Planning Rules. Only the pathing time is extra and that will be because its following a slower train in front.

 

[dk1]

It is noticeable that most of the class 9 Edinburgh trains wait around at Gorgie (approaching Haymarket East Jn ) with about 5 mins in the schedule, and a Glasgow picked at random (http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y82472/2019/01/08/advanced) has an 10 extra minutes in its schedule between Carstairs and Glasgow Cen.

For some reason the preceding 14:30 ex-Eus has always been given additional time & has been booked into Central around 19:15 whereas most arrive XX:59 throughout the day.

 

[Aictos]

The key bit is “suburbia”. If their main market is commuting then I would regard them as suburbia, and services would be less speed sensitive.

 

[adrock1976]

Regarding the traditional Intercity services post-HS2, could something like below be suitable?

London Euston - Birmingham New Street every 30 minutes calling Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Coventry, Birmingham International (maybe re-named Bickenhill Parkway - see previous threads regarding International and the HS station), and Birmingham NS. One of these trains could continue every 60 minutes to Shrewsbury (subject to wires going up between Oxley Depot and Shrewsbury, or using bi-modes) calling at Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton, Telford Central, Wellington Telford West, and Shrewsbury.

London Euston - Manchester Piccadilly every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 60 minutes alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 60 minutes alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, and Manchester Piccadilly. The first and last trains of the day could be extended to run to and from Bolton (southbound AM, northbound PM) and/or Preston.

London Euston - Liverpool Lime Street every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton (every 60 minutes alternating), Lichfield Trent Valley (every 60 minutes alternating), Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, and Liverpool LS.

London Euston - Chester and Holyhead every 60 minutes calling at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, and Chester, with 2 hourly extensions to Holyhead calling Llandudno Junction, Bangor, and Holyhead.

London Euston - Blackpool North every 60 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 2 hours alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 2 hours alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, Hartford, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Kirkham & Wesham, Poulton-le-Fylde, and Blackpool North.

I have based the above on the assumption that the present day London Euston - Glasgow Central via the former Trent Valley Railway that runs non-stop between London and Warrington will transfer to HS2 metals between London and Preston (when it eventually reaches that far north).

 

[sufian123]

Regarding the traditional Intercity services post-HS2, could something like below be suitable?

London Euston - Birmingham New Street every 30 minutes calling Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Coventry, Birmingham International (maybe re-named Bickenhill Parkway - see previous threads regarding International and the HS station), and Birmingham NS. One of these trains could continue every 60 minutes to Shrewsbury (subject to wires going up between Oxley Depot and Shrewsbury, or using bi-modes) calling at Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton, Telford Central, Wellington Telford West, and Shrewsbury.

London Euston - Manchester Piccadilly every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 60 minutes alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 60 minutes alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, and Manchester Piccadilly. The first and last trains of the day could be extended to run to and from Bolton (southbound AM, northbound PM) and/or Preston.

London Euston - Liverpool Lime Street every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton (every 60 minutes alternating), Lichfield Trent Valley (every 60 minutes alternating), Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, and Liverpool LS.

London Euston - Chester and Holyhead every 60 minutes calling at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, and Chester, with 2 hourly extensions to Holyhead calling Llandudno Junction, Bangor, and Holyhead.

London Euston - Blackpool North every 60 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 2 hours alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 2 hours alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, Hartford, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Kirkham & Wesham, Poulton-le-Fylde, and Blackpool North.

I have based the above on the assumption that the present day London Euston - Glasgow Central via the former Trent Valley Railway that runs non-stop between London and Warrington will transfer to HS2 metals between London and Preston (when it eventually reaches that far north).

Blackpool north services to call at aterijns after Preston would require platform extensions as a 390 won’t fit into the platform and so at Hartford.

 

[The Ham]

Regarding the traditional Intercity services post-HS2, could something like below be suitable?

London Euston - Birmingham New Street every 30 minutes calling Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Coventry, Birmingham International (maybe re-named Bickenhill Parkway - see previous threads regarding International and the HS station), and Birmingham NS. One of these trains could continue every 60 minutes to Shrewsbury (subject to wires going up between Oxley Depot and Shrewsbury, or using bi-modes) calling at Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton, Telford Central, Wellington Telford West, and Shrewsbury.

London Euston - Manchester Piccadilly every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 60 minutes alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 60 minutes alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, and Manchester Piccadilly. The first and last trains of the day could be extended to run to and from Bolton (southbound AM, northbound PM) and/or Preston.

London Euston - Liverpool Lime Street every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton (every 60 minutes alternating), Lichfield Trent Valley (every 60 minutes alternating), Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, and Liverpool LS.

London Euston - Chester and Holyhead every 60 minutes calling at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, and Chester, with 2 hourly extensions to Holyhead calling Llandudno Junction, Bangor, and Holyhead.

London Euston - Blackpool North every 60 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 2 hours alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 2 hours alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, Hartford, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Kirkham & Wesham, Poulton-le-Fylde, and Blackpool North.

I have based the above on the assumption that the present day London Euston - Glasgow Central via the former Trent Valley Railway that runs non-stop between London and Warrington will transfer to HS2 metals between London and Preston (when it eventually reaches that far north).

Wouldn't you start to run into capacity problems getting to Liverpool with the above services as well as HS2 services as well?

Which leads to the question are the other services not going to run into the same problem.

I would also question why you are skipping stops at MK from some of those services given the level of rail usage. For instance in the Blackpool service I'd put the skip at Nuneaton which seems to do very well out of the above suggestions, probably more so than it probably should.

 

[hwl]

Wouldn't you start to run into capacity problems getting to Liverpool with the above services as well as HS2 services as well?

Which leads to the question are the other services not going to run into the same problem.

I would also question why you are skipping stops at MK from some of those services given the level of rail usage. For instance in the Blackpool service I'd put the skip at Nuneaton which seems to do very well out of the above suggestions, probably more so than it probably should.

To maximise WCML capacity it is best to assume everything will stop at MK in the future.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Regarding the traditional Intercity services post-HS2, could something like below be suitable?

You want 4tph Euston-Liverpool instead of the current 1tph (2xHS2, 2xclassic)?
HS2 will get all the premium services, leaving stoppers on the classic line.
Maybe some faster services to places not well served by HS2 (eg Stoke, Chester), but not your 8tph classics.
Maybe 2tph with alternating destinations?
I'd expect to see more "LNWR"-type regional services instead.
All fast trains into Euston (HS2 and WCML) will be run by the same TOC (WCP), and I don't believe they are going to compete against themselves.
Having said that, there will probably be an interim phase while the service patterns on both routes bed down, which is what WCP is for really.

 

[Bletchleyite]

They won't compete with themselves, but they may well price differentiate in the manner Stagecoach does with Magic Bus, or VTWC with the slow Scotland via Brum trains.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Regarding the traditional Intercity services post-HS2, could something like below be suitable?

London Euston - Birmingham New Street every 30 minutes calling Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Coventry, Birmingham International (maybe re-named Bickenhill Parkway - see previous threads regarding International and the HS station), and Birmingham NS. One of these trains could continue every 60 minutes to Shrewsbury (subject to wires going up between Oxley Depot and Shrewsbury, or using bi-modes) calling at Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton, Telford Central, Wellington Telford West, and Shrewsbury.

London Euston - Manchester Piccadilly every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 60 minutes alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 60 minutes alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, and Manchester Piccadilly. The first and last trains of the day could be extended to run to and from Bolton (southbound AM, northbound PM) and/or Preston.

London Euston - Liverpool Lime Street every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton (every 60 minutes alternating), Lichfield Trent Valley (every 60 minutes alternating), Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, and Liverpool LS.

London Euston - Chester and Holyhead every 60 minutes calling at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, and Chester, with 2 hourly extensions to Holyhead calling Llandudno Junction, Bangor, and Holyhead.

London Euston - Blackpool North every 60 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 2 hours alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 2 hours alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, Hartford, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Kirkham & Wesham, Poulton-le-Fylde, and Blackpool North.

I have based the above on the assumption that the present day London Euston - Glasgow Central via the former Trent Valley Railway that runs non-stop between London and Warrington will transfer to HS2 metals between London and Preston (when it eventually reaches that far north).

Problems are that there are no services to Holyhead or Wrexham, no direct service serving Oxenholme, Penrith, Lockerbie and Motherwell which all are currently served and won’t be by HS2.

I would extend the other Birmingham New Street services to Holyhead. You could extend the Shrewsbury service to Wrexham a couple of times a day. As for the stations between Lancaster and Glasgow (except Carlisle) you could provide a direct service from Glasgow/Edinburgh to London Euston Via Birmingham New Street every hour with a two hourly to Glasgow and Edinburgh?

EDIT:

My assumption was that one service would run from Preston to London serving Warrington and Wigan and Glasgow/Edinburgh (both to be served twice an hour) to London serving Lancaster and Carlisle. But with a split of the second Liverpool service you could extend another service to Glasgow via Lockerbie, Penrith, Oxenholme , Motherwell? Which would facilitate WCP not serving Glasgow/Edinburgh.

 

[krus_aragon]

Problems are that there are no services to Holyhead or Wrexham, no direct service serving Oxenholme, Penrith, Lockerbie and Motherwell which all are currently served and won’t be by HS2.

They did mention:

London Euston - Chester and Holyhead every 60 minutes calling at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, and Chester, with 2 hourly extensions to Holyhead calling Llandudno Junction, Bangor, and Holyhead.

The current Wrexham service could continue as part of the above, or be modified (perhaps in the way you suggested. The issues for Oxenholme and further north would still stand, though.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

They did mention:

The current Wrexham service could continue as part of the above, or be modified (perhaps in the way you suggested. The issues for Oxenholme and further north would still stand, though.

Sorry must of missed that! Solved the issue with Oxenholme and Penrith I have edited the previous post! See what you think?

 

[Class 170101]

Regarding the traditional Intercity services post-HS2, could something like below be suitable?

London Euston - Birmingham New Street every 30 minutes calling Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Coventry, Birmingham International (maybe re-named Bickenhill Parkway - see previous threads regarding International and the HS station), and Birmingham NS. One of these trains could continue every 60 minutes to Shrewsbury (subject to wires going up between Oxley Depot and Shrewsbury, or using bi-modes) calling at Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton, Telford Central, Wellington Telford West, and Shrewsbury.

I'd remove Watford Jn from one and replace it with Rugby. The second 60 minute path (not Shrewsbury) I'd still run to Glasgow / Edinburgh calling at the intermediate stations as now. For Shrewsbury I would use the Voyagers rather than Bi-modes to start with until the Voyagers have reached the end of their lives.

London Euston - Manchester Piccadilly every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 60 minutes alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 60 minutes alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, and Manchester Piccadilly. The first and last trains of the day could be extended to run to and from Bolton (southbound AM, northbound PM) and/or Preston.

London Euston - Liverpool Lime Street every 30 minutes calling at Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton (every 60 minutes alternating), Lichfield Trent Valley (every 60 minutes alternating), Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, and Liverpool LS.

Not sure I would call at Lichfield to be honest (maybe one or two peak services) and I would reduce Watford to a 60 minute frequency shared with Nuneaton instead.

London Euston - Chester and Holyhead every 60 minutes calling at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, and Chester, with 2 hourly extensions to Holyhead calling Llandudno Junction, Bangor, and Holyhead.

Wrexham service every two hours here maybe? Opposite the Holyhead service.

London Euston - Blackpool North every 60 minutes calling at Watford Junction (every 2 hours alternating), Milton Keynes Central (every 2 hours alternating), Rugby, Nuneaton, Stafford, Crewe, Hartford, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Kirkham & Wesham, Poulton-le-Fylde, and Blackpool North.

I have based the above on the assumption that the present day London Euston - Glasgow Central via the former Trent Valley Railway that runs non-stop between London and Warrington will transfer to HS2 metals between London and Preston (when it eventually reaches that far north).

Either a semi fast via the WCML and Trent Valley or via Birmingham New Street as I have noted above would still be needed for Dlasgow / Edinburgh. Or perhaps the Birmingham to Edinburgh / Glasgow portion could be handed back to XC?

 

[EE Andy b1]

For Shrewsbury I would use the Voyagers rather than Bi-modes to start with until the Voyagers have reached the end of their lives.

No they need to remove Voyagers from running under West Coast wires and pass them onto XC to lengthen there trains, so some sort of Bi-mode is required as more electrification is not going to happen. Don't want 4 lots of traction on WC/WCP services.

Either a semi fast via the WCML and Trent Valley or via Birmingham New Street as I have noted above would still be needed for Dlasgow / Edinburgh. Or perhaps the Birmingham to Edinburgh / Glasgow portion could be handed back to XC?

Do not give these services back to XC. Worst trains and overcrowding and Arriva involved!

 

[Class 170101]

No they need to remove Voyagers from running under West Coast wires and pass them onto XC to lengthen there trains, so some sort of Bi-mode is required as more electrification is not going to happen. Don't want 4 lots of traction on WC/WCP services.

The Voyagers would better on West Coast as they are the only tilting trains available (and in the case of the XC ones able to be re-instated). I would imagine some IEPs would be built for XC to strengthen services. Tilting not being a factor in the franchise unlike the West Coast franchise.

Do not give these services back to XC. Worst trains and overcrowding and Arriva involved!

Arriva may well not be running the franchise by then. Even with the Williams review I'd like to think the XC franchise would have been awarded by then - perhaps twice. Personally I would prefer Brimingham to Scotland via WCML to be part of XC rather than changing at New Street which frankly isn't a nice station to change at in spite of the refurbishment there.

 

[jyte]

No they need to remove Voyagers from running under West Coast wires and pass them onto XC to lengthen there trains

Why not reverse this strategy?

More voyagers on the WCML and a brand new bi-mode fleet for XC?

 

[Mathew S]

Why not reverse this strategy?

More voyagers on the WCML and a brand new bi-mode fleet for XC?

Actually... that's not a bad idea
Saves on ordering new units for the wcml that may or may not still be needed when HS2 comes online. Eek the last dregs of life out of the 220/221/390 fleets and then replace everything once all the HS2 changes are less of an unknown quantity.

 

[driver_m]

The way financing seems to be at the moment for new trains, wouldn't both TOC's be better off getting new fleets and binning Voyagers across the board?!

I was being sarky, but the more I think about it, it probably would actually be what happens. The railway is a bit of a mad place at the moment.

 

[AndrewE]

Why not reverse this strategy? More voyagers on the WCML and a brand new bi-mode fleet for XC?

Why not? Because it means more diesel running under the wires, when we should be reducing it at every opportunity.
We need something like an electric HST, with extra traction motors under the coach adjacent to the power cars, including bi-modes designed so that the diesel ends can be easily converted to full electrics as the wires spread.

 

[VT 390]

No they need to remove Voyagers from running under West Coast wires and pass them onto XC to lengthen there trains, so some sort of Bi-mode is required as more electrification is not going to happen. Don't want 4 lots of traction on WC/WCP services.



Do not give these services back to XC. Worst trains and overcrowding and Arriva involved!

Instead of Bi-Modes could batteries be fitted to the Pendolinos

 

[AndrewE]

Instead of Bi-Modes could batteries be fitted to the Pendolinos

There's no point. There aren't enough of them now, and something is going to be needed to run all the services remaining on the classic line.
I suppose that if we only get a half-hearted token offering beyond HS2 there might be some displaced, but it will be a challenge to fit in the number of batteries that you would need to give sufficient megaWatt hours.

 

[dk1]

To be fair I'm not that bothered about diesel under the wires. To me it's more important to be able to tilt & therefore maintain the flight of higher speed trains.

On the subject of adding batteries to Pendolinos, aren't they very heavy trains already? This additional weight would affect their TASS ability on the WCML & where would they actually fit below the sole bar?