EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[nidave]

Well done you two. I fully expect your next response will be to call me a racist, then one of you to claim I'll be responsible for the IRAs actions, then lastly to get sanctioned by your tame Mod seeing as you can't win the argument.

If the shoe fits

 

[nidave]

You can't have it both ways. On the one hand saying that the economy is going to nosedive with many people out of work, but on the other hand claim immigration will be vital due to "almost full employment".

We currently have full employment companies will make lots redundant if we have no deal but people will not do things like seasonal work and jobs like cleaning as a lot of UK Nationals think its beneath them.
How many people want to work in the care industry from the UK - considering we already have a chronic shortage of staff to do a lot of the work. Considering the government decides on the amount of money available for social care (and the argument is we just need to pay them more for UK nationals to want to the jobs) how do you do this without increasing tax which I am pretty sure you have already said you don’t want to do.

 

[mmh]

Lamb:- New Zealand

Wales, please!

 

[mmh]

We currently have full employment companies will make lots redundant if we have no deal but people will not do things like seasonal work and jobs like cleaning as a lot of UK Nationals think its beneath them.

Ah, the "lazy workshy Brit" myth, sigh.

How many people want to work in the care industry from the UK - considering we already have a chronic shortage of staff to do a lot of the work. Considering the government decides on the amount of money available for social care (and the argument is we just need to pay them more for UK nationals to want to the jobs) how do you do this without increasing tax which I am pretty sure you have already said you don’t want to do.

The Royal College of Nursing disagrees with you, people are willing to do the job, we're not willing to train them.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nh...-thirds-of-local-applicants-are-rejected.html

The NHS is spending “ludicrous” sums poaching foreign nurses while rejecting two thirds of British applicants for training, the head of the nursing union has warned.

Dr Peter Carter claimed staff shortages across the UK had reached “crisis” levels, with almost every NHS hospital trawling the globe for staff.

The head of the Royal College of Nursing said attempts to procure nurses from countries that can ill afford to lose them were ethically dubious and “hugely expensive”.


Despite shortages that have left trusts paying agencies up to £2,200 per nursing shift and soaring numbers of foreign nurses, most Britons who try to join the profession are turned away, he said.

Last year, 57,000 applicants tried to train as a nurse, but 37,000 were rejected. Dr Carter said not all of those turned away “would have been appropriate” but he added: “I can’t believe the majority of them wouldn’t have been fit.” Meanwhile, the number of foreign nurses registering to work in Britain rose by one third, as did the amount spent on agency nurses – reaching a record £3.3 billion.

 

[nidave]

Ok so we have nurses and the fact the goverment wont sort it out is a diffent issue- what about carers and non nursing staff (I should have been clearer). I suspect nothing is going to make the slightest bit of diffrence to your view and ignorance of the way the EU works. You might want to try for a job in the Daily Express they must be crying out for people who jsut ignore facts.

 

[Puffing Devil]

I fully expect your next response will be to call me a racist, then one of you to claim I'll be responsible for the IRAs actions, then lastly to get sanctioned by your tame Mod seeing as you can't win the argument.

Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.

I'll leave you in your own paradigm.

 

[Muttley]

I'll leave you in your own paradigm.

And yet you still can't win the argument.

 

[EM2]

And yet Greece, Croatia, and 20 other nations manage to take out of the kitty.

You can't have a system where everyone takes out more than they put in, basic maths should tell you that.
What you can do though, is have a system where those that have more can assist that have less.

 

[birchesgreen]

I wonder if those against this sort of thing are also against poor families being helped by richer people?

 

[AM9]

You can't have a system where everyone takes out more than they put in, basic maths should tell you that.
What you can do though, is have a system where those that have more can assist that have less.

I presume that the majority of leavers posting in this thread are in comfortable jobs or on reasonable pensions. If that is true, it would seem to account for the rather selfish attitude towards those less fortunate then them who may well suffer greatly if the expected crashing out of the EU takes place. Many of those unfortunates will have been leave voters as well, but those of them who are members of this forum may well be considering their position rather than recycling the lies they heard 30 months ago and continually spouting about winning and losing. Nobody will win if the economy dives, - except the speculators of course, and there are quite a few of them starring in the pantomime in Parliament doing everything to create the environment in which they hope to make a lot of fast personal gains.

 

[AM9]

I wonder if those against this sort of thing are also against poor families being helped by richer people?

Well it is typical right-wing politics so probably yes.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Nobody will win if the economy dives, - except the speculators of course, and there are quite a few of them starring in the pantomime in Parliament doing everything to create the environment in which they hope to make a lot of fast personal gains.

Care to substantiate that allegation?

 

[furnessvale]

So, given the new free-trade agreement between Japan and the EU, at what stage does it become better for the Japanese to ship cars from Japan rather than make them in factories in a Britain outside the EU?

Or indeed any other country outside the EU,

 

[Puffing Devil]

And yet you still can't win the argument.

I've learned that when you're up against a fool, you're the fool to keep going back. So I'm out.

 

[AM9]

You can't have a system where everyone takes out more than they put in, basic maths should tell you that.
What you can do though, is have a system where those that have more can assist that have less.

In practice, if the poorer nations weren't given some support, it would severely limit the trading gains of the richer ones. That's something that the germans learnt some time ago but the UK seems to be heading towards a Tump-like society where the elitist politicians and their rich paymasters pay lip-service to the 'proles' just enough to secure their votes, yet line their own coffers at the expense of those poor unfortunates.

 

[furnessvale]

Well done for bending the facts.

France, Spain, Italy etc. (where fruit comes from) are not "the far side of the EU"; that would be Greece, Cyprus, etc.

Spain and Italy are quite far enough to demonstrate the effect of transport costs.

 

[AM9]

I've learned that when you're up against a fool, you're the fool to keep going back. So I'm out.

Isn't the saying something like: 'never take on an idiot in a stupid argument as they will beat you on experience'?

 

[furnessvale]

If the UK can source cheap foods and goods - doesn't that undercut our own farmers and manufacturers, meaning they go out of business? Many farms, for example, can't diversify due to their geography and climate restricting them. Is that what Brexit wants??

Remainers really want it both ways. If it is possible to buy goods cheaper outside of the protectionist EU why is that converted into a bad thing.

Will food be more expensive in the UK after we leave the EU or not?

 

[EM2]

Remainers really want it both ways. If it is possible to buy goods cheaper outside of the protectionist EU why is that converted into a bad thing.

Because buying cheaper goods at the expense of your own products erodes your industrial base (such as what happened with car manufacture and shipbuilding in the UK), and leaves you vulnerable to supply chain issues outside of your control (such as industrial unrest), price rises and lack of supply.

Will food be more expensive in the UK after we leave the EU or not?

Yes. Unless we reach a deal with the EU.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Will food be more expensive in the UK after we leave the EU or not?

Food is already more expensive than it would've been if the referendum vote had gone the other way, largely because of the fall in the £. Most people tend not to notice because the way it becomes more expensive is with shops gradually putting up prices on individual goods a bit at a time, and the connection with Brexit isn't readily apparent, but the causal effect is definitely there. If we leave without a deal, then the value of the £ is likely to fall even more, and prices will correspondingly go up more, albeit - unless shortages cause a sudden spike - there may be a time lag of a few months because of competition pressures on supermarkets: No company likes to suddenly jack up all its prices at the same time. Any sudden imposition of tariffs will have a big impact too.

If on the other hand we leave with the May deal (very unlikely but possible) then I suspect prices won't rise much more than they already have, at least in the short term, because the expectation of the UK leaving with some sort of deal would have already been accounted for in the exchange rates to some extent.

People, especially on the leave side, are making an assumption that we'll suddenly be able to import food more cheaply from other countries. In the long run that might be possible, but it brings up issues of food safety and for other free trade deals to be approved - which takes years. Also, although people are talking about importing stuff by ship across the oceans, a lot of food is too perishable for that anyway.

Besides, another thing that noone here seems to have keyed into is that the EU already has arrangements to allow many of the poorest countries (including for example, much of Africa) to export to the EU tariff-free. The purpose of those arrangements tends to be for the EU to play good citizen and help the very poorest countries, but undoubtedly that helps the prices of some raw commodities (for example, sugar) within the EU too. And obviously, if we leave the EU without a deal, we lose that.

The UK by the way is nowhere near self-sufficient in food production, so there's no way we can avoid having to import large amounts of food for many years into the future. Brexit or no Brexit.

In conclusion: No-deal Brexit = substantial increases in food prices over time. May-deal Brexit = maybe some increases but not too much. No Brexit = food prices drop back to roughly what they were a couple of years ago.

 

[VioletEclipse]

Food is already more expensive than it would've been if the referendum vote had gone the other way, largely because of the fall in the £. Most people tend not to notice because the way it becomes more expensive is with shops gradually putting up prices on individual goods a bit at a time, and the connection with Brexit isn't readily apparent, but the causal effect is definitely there. If we leave without a deal, then the value of the £ is likely to fall even more, and prices will correspondingly go up more, albeit - unless shortages cause a sudden spike - there may be a time lag of a few months because of competition pressures on supermarkets: No company likes to suddenly jack up all its prices at the same time. Any sudden imposition of tariffs will have a big impact too.

If on the other hand we leave with the May deal (very unlikely but possible) then I suspect prices won't rise much more than they already have, at least in the short term, because the expectation of the UK leaving with some sort of deal would have already been accounted for in the exchange rates to some extent.

People, especially on the leave side, are making an assumption that we'll suddenly be able to import food more cheaply from other countries. In the long run that might be possible, but it brings up issues of food safety and for other free trade deals to be approved - which takes years. Also, although people are talking about importing stuff by ship across the oceans, a lot of food is too perishable for that anyway.

Besides, another thing that noone here seems to have keyed into is that the EU already has arrangements to allow many of the poorest countries (including for example, much of Africa) to export to the EU tariff-free. The purpose of those arrangements tends to be for the EU to play good citizen and help the very poorest countries, but undoubtedly that helps the prices of some raw commodities (for example, sugar) within the EU too. And obviously, if we leave the EU without a deal, we lose that.

The UK by the way is nowhere near self-sufficient in food production, so there's no way we can avoid having to import large amounts of food for many years into the future. Brexit or no Brexit.

In conclusion: No-deal Brexit = substantial increases in food prices over time. May-deal Brexit = maybe some increases but not too much. No Brexit = food prices drop back to roughly what they were a couple of years ago.

hadn't noticed the food prices/brexit correlation yet, but now I do, and I completely agree, it's scarily true.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Remainers really want it both ways. If it is possible to buy goods cheaper outside of the protectionist EU why is that converted into a bad thing.

It's a mixture really. The problem that - to my mind - most Brexiters - don't seem to understand - is that if you allow completely free trade between countries that have very different standard of livings, that can quickly become a race to the bottom, in which goods exported from the poorer countries are cheaper primarily because they are made with - for example, exploited or child labour or with minimal environmental protection or safety conditions. That both brings up obvious moral issues, and makes it impossible for (ethical) companies in the richer countries to compete. Hence the richer countries get cheaper goods but also companies going out of business and unemployment etc., or they are dragged into much cheaper wages and poorer working conditions to compete. The risk is that's what is likely to happen to us with many of these free trade deals that Brexiters keep telling us will be negotiated.

By contrast the EU provides a free trade area across all its members, AND mitigates the risk by enforcing common regulations and safety standards etc. across all its members, as well as by seeking to raise the standard of living of its poorer members. We therefore get many of the benefits of the free trade, but also get protections against the race-to-the-bottom thing. A best of both worlds really. Unfortunately, a lot of the Brexit campaign during the referendum seemed to consist of Farage et al complaining about the EU making regulations that (supposedly, for nationalistic reasons) we should be making in the UK, while completely failing to grasp the point of those regulations being agreed across the entire EU and their value in preventing a race-to-the-bottom in all the EU economies.

Of course, nothing is completely black and white. Pretty much any policy will have some upsides and some downsides. And undoubtedly, free movement has caused some issues with wages (although not nearly as much as most Brexiters tend to make out). But overall, I'd say we're much better off within the EU-style free trade area than we would be in any non-EU free trade deal that the likes of Boris and Rees-Mogg would be wanting to negotiate.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

hadn't noticed the food prices/brexit correlation yet, but now I do, and I completely agree, it's scarily true.

Yep, as one very anecdotal example, I recall one frozen pizza I used to like buying from Sainsburys. Around the time of the referendum, Sainsburys had been selling it for £1 and had just reduced it to 90p as part of their 'we're lowering prices' (or whatever their slogan then was) price drive. And yes, it wasn't exactly the highest quality pizza, but I like it. Within a year of the referendum it was selling for £1.25, and since then the price has hovered around the £1.25 to £1.35 range. That's really very big % price increase within a fairly short time. Obviously that's anecdotal, and just one product, you'd need a lot more data about a lot more products to make a statistically sound argument. But the point is, that's the kind of thing that is slowly happening across the board - precisely because of the referendum result - but because of the time lag, most people won't consciously realise the connection with the referendum or with Brexit.

 

[NSEFAN]

It's a mixture really. The problem that - to my mind - most Brexiters - don't seem to understand - is that if you allow completely free trade between countries that have very different standard of livings, that can quickly become a race to the bottom, in which goods exported from the poorer countries are cheaper primarily because they are made with - for example, exploited or child labour or with minimal environmental protection or safety conditions. That both brings up obvious moral issues, and makes it impossible for (ethical) companies in the richer countries to compete. Hence the richer countries get cheaper goods but also companies going out of business and unemployment etc., or they are dragged into much cheaper wages and poorer working conditions to compete. The risk is that's what is likely to happen to us with many of these free trade deals that Brexiters keep telling us will be negotiated.

By contrast the EU provides a free trade area across all its members, AND mitigates the risk by enforcing common regulations and safety standards etc. across all its members, as well as by seeking to raise the standard of living of its poorer members. We therefore get many of the benefits of the free trade, but also get protections against the race-to-the-bottom thing. A best of both worlds really. Unfortunately, a lot of the Brexit campaign during the referendum seemed to consist of Farage et al complaining about the EU making regulations that (supposedly, for nationalistic reasons) we should be making in the UK, while completely failing to grasp the point of those regulations being agreed across the entire EU and their value in preventing a race-to-the-bottom in all the EU economies.

Of course, nothing is completely black and white. Pretty much any policy will have some upsides and some downsides. And undoubtedly, free movement has caused some issues with wages (although not nearly as much as most Brexiters tend to make out). But overall, I'd say we're much better off within the EU-style free trade area than we would be in any non-EU free trade deal that the likes of Boris and Rees-Mogg would be wanting to negotiate.

This. The trade on its own is not enough. High standards need to be enforced. Countries can only be inside the trade arrangements if they are prepared to follow the standards. We will still be expected to follow these standards, even if not a member.

 

[Howardh]

Remainers really want it both ways. If it is possible to buy goods cheaper outside of the protectionist EU why is that converted into a bad thing.

Will food be more expensive in the UK after we leave the EU or not?

Bound to be as the £ collapses. Whether the food is from the EU, rest of the world....
Allowing for inflation and seasonal variations (not to mention the value of the £), I'd rather like the price food to stay as it is (the consumer has the choice of decent stuff or Morrison's "value" if they want it cheap and nasty) and staying inside the EU is one way of ensuring a steady inflow of tarrif-free foodstuffs from europe.

 

[Ken H]

Bound to be as the £ collapses. Whether the food is from the EU, rest of the world....
Allowing for inflation and seasonal variations (not to mention the value of the £), I'd rather like the price food to stay as it is (the consumer has the choice of decent stuff or Morrison's "value" if they want it cheap and nasty) and staying inside the EU is one way of ensuring a steady inflow of tarrif-free foodstuffs from europe.

why would the £ collapse?

 

[birchesgreen]

The value of the pound reflects other people's confidence in the currency and the economy that backs it up, thats why its dropped a lot over the last couple of years

 

[HH]

Never mind folks. Putin will be our friend if we leave.

And I don't want to hear anyone saying, "With friends like that..."

 

[Ken H]

The value of the pound reflects other people's confidence in the currency and the economy that backs it up, thats why its dropped a lot over the last couple of years

was over valued anyway. Having a too high value £ makes exporting harder.

 

[AM9]

was over valued anyway. Having a too high value £ makes exporting harder.

... and a low pound makes importing harder, import tariffs or not. Great for rich speculators though - especially those who promptly moved their money overseas soon after the referendum. Shame about the great unwashed though.