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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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Basher

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The trouble is the remainders are like little children, they are crying because they cant have it their way. Adults have to accept that it was a vote to leave DEMOCRATICALLY. I voted not to join the EU all those years ago but we were more adult and accepted DEMOCRACY.
 
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EM2

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The trouble is the remainders are like little children, they are crying because they cant have it their way. Adults have to accept that it was a vote to leave DEMOCRATICALLY. I voted not to join the EU all those years ago but we were more adult and accepted DEMOCRACY.
No, we're happy for the result of the vote to go through. But there has to be an arrangement that works for everyone. The PM's deal is not it, and No Deal is definitely not it.
 

Basher

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So you are calling the business owners liars when they say No deal is going to destroy UK businesses (or decimate I think the word that was used)


Name one of those things we could not do while in the EU? Do we have to leave the EU to do things we already do?
Import cheaper beef, oranges etc.
 

87 027

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An interesting and sobering view on the current state of the Brexit situation from our former ambassador to the EU. He argues that both sides have been rather dishonest with us and there are serious choices and realities to be confronted whichever way things turn out.

Headlines:
First Lesson: It has of course to be that “Brexit means Brexit”. I do not mean this facetiously
Second lesson: Other people have sovereignty too. And they too may choose to “take back control” of things you would rather they didn’t
Third lesson: Brexit is a process not an event. And the EU, while strategically myopic, is formidably good at process against negotiating opponents. We have to be equally so, or we will get hammered. Repeatedly
Fourth lesson: it is not possible or democratic to argue that only one Brexit destination is true, legitimate and represents the revealed “Will of the People” and that all other potential destinations outside the EU are “Brexit in Name Only”
Fifth lesson: If WTO terms or existing EU preferential deals are not good enough for the UK in major third country markets, they can’t be good enough for trade with our largest market
Sixth lesson: the huge problem for the UK with either reversion to WTO terms or with a standard free trade deal with the EU is in services
Seventh lesson: Beware all supposed deals bearing “pluses”
Eighth lesson: you cannot, and should not want to, conduct such a huge negotiation as untransparently as the U.K. has
Ninth lesson: real honesty with the public is the best – the only – policy if we are to get to the other side of Brexit with a healthy democracy, a reasonably unified country and a healthy economy

Full speech at the link below
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

I note he doesn't address the argument that over time trade with the rest of the world will increase in importance relative to the EU27. Although he does say this on free trade generally:
"It is equally legitimate to argue, as I mentioned earlier, that you only want free trade deals which stop well short of the intrusion on national sovereignty which Single Market harmonisation and mutual recognition via supranational legislation, adjudication and enforcement entails. As long as one also recognises that all trade deals inevitably erode and trammel one’s sovereignty to some degree – often to a significant degree. Binding international commitments to opening each other’s markets – on goods, services, government procurement, whatever – seriously limit one’s capacity to regulate sectors of the economy as one might ideally see fit. Genuinely free global trade actually seriously trammels national sovereignty. Hold the front page. Indeed, the greatest reason to be a passionate free trader – which I am – is surely precisely that: it curtails the ability of myopic politicians to erect barriers to commerce in the name of sovereignty and national preference against non-national producers."

Some concluding remarks:
"Too much of our political debate just insults people’s intelligence and just suggests that every facet of Brexit you don’t like is purely a feature of only the Prime Minister’s version of it, rather than intrinsic to leaving. I dislike plenty of the Prime Minister’s deal. It’s obviously a bad deal. But given her own views and preferences, her bitterly divided Party and the negotiating realities with the other side of the table, I can at least understand that she is on pretty much the only landing zone she could ever reach. Those aspiring to a radically different one owe us honest accounts, not pipedreams, of how they propose to get there, and the timescale over which they will."
 

EM2

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I'm beginning to think that How To Brexit is like The Ultimate Question Of Life, The Universe, and Everything.
For the former, we know that the answer is 'not being in the EU', for the latter it's '42'.
But how do we get to the answer?
 

mmh

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Oh, yes, because *no* countries in Europe are famous for wine making, are they? <eye roll emoticon>

It's painful to know that my referendum vote was worth exactly the same as yours.

Yeah, democracy is an awkward thing.

Mr Wetherspoon must buy and sell a sell a lot more wine than any of us, and he doesn't seem to be bothered.
 

Esker-pades

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The trouble is the remainders are like little children, they are crying because they cant have it their way. Adults have to accept that it was a vote to leave DEMOCRATICALLY. I voted not to join the EU all those years ago but we were more adult and accepted DEMOCRACY.
1: Leave.EU's breaking of electoral finance laws is not democratic.
2: The campaign was based on a combination of fantasy and lies. Now that we know what leaving the EU is like, the country as a whole is more educated. If the country still wants to leave, then that is fine.
3: Having more democracy is not against democracy.
 

Ianno87

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I'm not a wine drinker, so unable to comment on quality, but I am told other world wines are equally as good, and in many cases better than French.

Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy perhaps?

Oh wait....
 

nidave

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Import cheaper beef, oranges etc.
Over 70% of oranges imported from outside the EU come from South Africa or Egypt
The Netherlands (548 000 tonnes, 17%), France (506 000 tonnes, 16%) and Germany (490 000 tonnes, 16%) were the Member States that imported the most oranges in 2016.
949 500 tonnes of oranges, worth €585 million, were imported from non-EU countries. These oranges mainly came from South Africa (404 000 tonnes, or 43% of the total extra-EU imports of oranges in 2016) and Egypt (266 000 tonnes, 28%). They were followed at a distance by Morocco (67 400 tonnes, 7%), Argentina (49 200 tonnes, 5%), Turkey (32 000 tonnes, 3%), Zimbabwe (28 100 tonnes, 3%), Uruguay (27 800 tonnes, 3%) and Brazil (23 300 tonnes, 2%).
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20171221-1

the EU has a tariff quota for high quality beef, nicknamed the “Hilton quota”. The EU’s current official commitment is 37,800 tonnes (see disclaimer below) charged 20% import duty. Outside the quota, the duty is much higher: €2,700–€4,700 per tonne.

The Hilton quota is only one of the EU’s tariff quotas. It has been the subject of complicated negotiations over the years as have most of the others.

These tariff quotas were included in the lists of legally binding commitments that each WTO member agreed. They are known as “schedules” — as well as listing the new commitments, they provided a timetable for introducing them.
https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/08/10/hilton-beef-quota/

So what about UK Beef producers? Do we reduce the cost of British beef?
Is that all you can come up with?
 

Howardh

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I'm not a wine drinker, so unable to comment on quality, but I am told other world wines are equally as good, and in many cases better than French.
Just to prove that I'm not totally eu-blinkered, I would put chilian wine above Spanish, save for that produced on Formentera!
 

nidave

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The trouble is the remainders are like little children, they are crying because they cant have it their way. Adults have to accept that it was a vote to leave DEMOCRATICALLY. I voted not to join the EU all those years ago but we were more adult and accepted DEMOCRACY.
So are you suggesting we never have another general election - why stop there- why did we have any more elections after 1802. The fact you have to refer to sound bites like an editor of the express is telling.
 

Howardh

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Oh, yes, because *no* countries in Europe are famous for wine making, are they? <eye roll emoticon>

It's painful to know that my referendum vote was worth exactly the same as yours.
Or port, beer, cognac, hierbas.,....not that I like a tipple or owt!!
 

nidave

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Have a little read of this, then explain why you think it's either a good idea or possible.

(Link to Edwin Heyward's brilliant analysis of a No Deal Brexit and WTO implications)
But... But... But we have to have belief and anyone talking down this mighty country is a traitor and is to blame for any and all the problems /s (that's sarcasm by the way)
Thats an interesting read have seen it before (cant remember where though)
 

nidave

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Have you seen how big California is? We buy huge amounts of American wine. And Trump likes us!
We all know why
Former US Treasury official, who told BI: "Agriculture punches well above its commercial weight in trade negotiations. The prospect of agricultural exports to the UK would be a major US objective in FTA talks."
US officials have been clear that the UK would need to change many of its rules and standards in order to sign an expansive free trade agreement with Washington, particularly in areas of sanitary and phytosanitary.

President Trump has previously criticised EU "barriers" to US farmers and manufacturers and Wilbur Ross, Trump's Secretary of Commerce, said last October that scrapping strict EU standards in areas like food hygiene and agriculture would be a "critical component" to any post-Brexit UK-UK free trade deal.
https://www.businessinsider.com/rat...ity-of-us-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10?r=UK&IR=T

and
The US is offering Britain a worse “open skies” deal after Brexit than it had as an EU member, in a negotiating stance that would badly hit the transatlantic operating rights of British Airways and Virgin Atlantic. British and American negotiators met secretly in January for the first formal talks on a new air services deal, aiming to fill the gap created when Britain falls out of the EU-US open skies treaty after Brexit, say people familiar with talks.
https://www.ft.com/content/9461157c-1f97-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80

and
A post-Brexit trade deal with the US could signal bad news for the scotch whisky industry, with distillers warned the number of American imports could soar if trade barriers come down once the UK exits the EU.

Trade groups in the US want any deal signed between the two countries to scrap current EU guidelines centred on the ageing of whisky, which would allow American producers to promote their younger spirits as “whiskey”.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/secret-post-brexit-trade-deal-could-threaten-scotch-whisky-1-4742164

It all seems rather one sided don't you think (im trying to find the quote where they say we have to reduce our standards in employment, sell the NHS, reduce environmental and food standards) No wonder trump loves the UK

Even some of the Conservatives want the same thing
The authors argue for a free trade agreement that would loosen government controls on capital and data flows and be “more liberalising than any other free trade agreement in the world”. They say that it could become a model for future deals post-Brexit. It would remove tariffs and throw out the precautionary principle that has guided much EU regulation on GM foods, chlorine-washed chicken, hormones in meat, pesticides and chemicals in cosmetics.

The same US thinktanks have been behind developing off-the-shelf policies favoured by big business that were adopted by the Trump administration when it took office. Several policies and staff from the Heritage Foundation were taken into the Trump transition team.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs

Edit: Got some of it
Washington has told Britain to avoid signing up to “hindrances” to trade in its Brexit negotiations, putting London on notice that a deal with the US will require lower tariffs and compromise on long-held EU practices in areas such as food regulation.


One thing I find rather amazing is the USA upset that it cant set the rules for the EU
“Key hindrances” to transatlantic trade cited by Mr Ross included the US’s limited or non-existent access to the EU’s standard-setting process; a lack of transparency and a lack of ability to participate in the EU’s regulatory process; potential barriers to trade and investment “in the digital space” and, finally, the “limited role of science in assessing risk especially in sanitary and phytosanitary matters”.
https://www.ft.com/content/92ad2ee0-c309-11e7-a1d2-6786f39ef675
 
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DarloRich

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I didn't respond because the experiences you described weren't really relevant: You were talking about Spanish citizens in Abbey National, who clearly, being EU citizens, have not had to go through the Home Office's immigration processes or been subject to immigration control - they are protected by EU rules, so they are not going to be able to tell you much about the UK Government's treatment of immigrants who don't have EU protection.

How we not treat migrants as human beings? Well I still remember the time some years ago when my then (non-EU) fiancee applied to remain in the UK so she could remain living with me, and the Home Office's response was not only to decline the application, but to then confiscate her passport, preventing her from returning home, and then tell her that, because she hadn't returned home (because she couldn't leave without her passport), she probably might not be allowed back in the country for 10 years. I spent about a month having to comfort her every day when she was basically stuck in limbo, unable to do anything about her status except wait until more than a month later the Home Office wrote to tell her to go to a certain office and queue for a couple of hours to get her passport back - but they'd only give it to her if she could show them a pre-paid for one-way flight ticket out of the UK. My fiancee whom I'd been living with for quite a few months, remember. So please don't tell me that wanting to treat people like human beings is 'student debating society': I've seen first hand what happens when you allow an attitude that immigrants are just things to be exploited economically to infect the entire immigration system - which, frankly, is what has happened, and is the attitude that the Tories are continuing to encourage. And I've had enough contact with other non-EU migrants to be very confident that what I and my then fiancee encountered is not at all atypical.

Because of my experiences, I spent quite a bit of time talking to other people who were going through the immigration system, as well as going through it myself. And believe me, unless you have experienced it for yourself, you wouldn't believe what it's like. You pay a fee of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of pounds, basically for a home office clerk to spend 15 minutes or so looking to see if there's some minor flaw with your documentation that they can use to justify denying your application for a visa. No matter that for you, this could mean, whether or not you're going to be allowed to finally meet your 6 month old daughter whom - because of immigration rules, you've not yet met - or finally see your husband for the first time in a year. In most cases, if they deny your visa application, whether it's because of a serious problem or just because of a technicality, there is no right of appeal. Even if they have clearly made a mistake, the only thing you can really do is accept the loss of what you've paid and pay the Home Office some more hundreds of pounds to apply again.

Imagine if you went to a shop to buy a laptop, and AFTER you've paid the shop for your laptop, the shop will decide whether they will let you have the laptop you've paid for, or whether they'll just keep your money. (Oh, and to add to this: Imagine that the shop waits for anything up to 6 months before it tells you of its decision, and during that time they will tell you absolutely nothing). Well that's what the UK's immigration system is like. The fees go up by way more than inflation, year after year, completely out of proportion to what it actually costs to process a visa application. The Home Office also appear to have had wheeze (this was a couple of years ago, I don't know if it's still the case) whereby they would insist on payment in the currency of the applicant's home country, but then use an exchange rate that bore very little relationship to the actual exchange rate, thus effectively making people pay substantially above the visa fees that the Home Office were publicly advertising.

During their time in office, the Conservatives have repeatedly changed the rules in ways that give the impression of allowing certain categories of people into the country, while in practice making it almost impossible (Example: Specifying that if you want your husband/wife to come to the UK to live with you, you have to be earning at least a certain amount of money, but then in the 'small print' specifically excluding lots of sources of income from consideration, so that many people who actually earn more than enough still fall foul of the rules and therefore are not allowed to have their husbands/wives with them).

From all my experience and from others I've spoken to with experience of the system, I am very confident this kind of thing is not a series of coincidences. It's precisely because there really is no consideration in the immigration rules or in their implementation that foreigners are actually human beings. It's all about, how can the Home Office extract the maximum amount of money from potential immigrants before discarding them (unless they are sufficiently useful to the economy to be allowed in). That's simply morally wrong and it's leading to immense human suffering. And dismissing concerns about this or the desire for a more humane approach to immigration as 'student debating society' seems utterly appalling to me.

I will not respond to this post in detail. My response would only upset you further which is not my intention.

Unlike you I try to keep emotion out of these types of debates as that very quickly turns discussion into a personal matter.

I will say I agree entirely that the immigration system doesn't work. I will further say you are not the only person to have some experience of that system. I know of two people close to me that have experienced similar issues. One almost identical to the situation you describe. They may not he my wife but they are my friends. I hope they are acceptable examples upon which to base my opinion

However, the new rules released today will not impact on the issues you describe. They are the symptom of a lack of funding, a lack of personal, poor and ineffective management, culture and leadership and a system that can't communicate internally! Obviously that comes from the top but the rules for deciding who comes in are separate from the administration of those rules.

Finally I maintain the vast majority of migrants come here for economic reasons.
 
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Howardh

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Have you seen how big California is? We buy huge amounts of American wine. And Trump likes us!
Have you seen how big the EU is? And they like us. Note, by population the EU - without us - is twice that of the US, never mind California. But, hey.
 

mmh

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...by importing it over a greater distance rather counties on our doorstep? Logical.

If the glorious European Union either won't let their colonies, sorry members, sell to us, or won't let them sell on competitive terms, then of course we'll buy from elsewhere.

That's in the hands of the EU.

Surely it wouldn't be so ideologically belligerent as to harm itself though? Well not if it was sane. I wouldn't put any money on it.
 

DynamicSpirit

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If the glorious European Union either won't let their colonies, sorry members,

When you describe EU countries with that kind of language, in a context that suggests you are at least half serious, that kinda suggests that your grip on reality, as far as the EU is concerned, may be a little tenuous. That in turn could lead to people (at least, those people who are reasonably well informed about the EU) not taking the rest of what you say as seriously as they otherwise might have.

sell to us, or won't let them sell on competitive terms, then of course we'll buy from elsewhere.

That's in the hands of the EU.

Surely it wouldn't be so ideologically belligerent as to harm itself though? Well not if it was sane. I wouldn't put any money on it.

Ummm. Yes. Because of course, there's no country in the EU that might be so ideologically belligerent as to harm its own economy for the sake of some nationalistic ideas about going it alone and no deal is better than a bad deal and so on, is there...

PS. Subtle hint: If you want to get some idea of how little damage EU members as a whole [1] are likely to suffer from trade barriers with the UK, check out the relative populations of the EU and the UK, and the relative sizes of the combined EU economy and the UK economy.

[1] With the exception of Ireland, which will unavoidably be in a very unfortunate geographical position if Brexit happens, almost no matter what the EU does.
 
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DynamicSpirit

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Have you seen how big the EU is? And they like us. Note, by population the EU - without us - is twice that of the US, never mind California. But, hey.

Umm, the EU is big, but not that big! A little Googling shows EU population = 510 million. If we leave, that will go down to about 445 million. USA = 330 million. I've rounded all figures to the nearest 5 million to avoid arguments about different sources giving very slightly different figures.
 

Ianno87

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Which is the answer to a totally different question.


I don't understand how buying from countries much, much further away (with considerably higher transport costs, never mind the environmental costs - not that Leavers care much for that of course) helps with buying cheaper fruit and veg, when we can currently freely trade with the EU anyway for produce right on our doorstep.

Totally relevant to the question, sorry.
 

nidave

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I don't understand how buying from countries much, much further away (with considerably higher transport costs, never mind the environmental costs - not that Leavers care much for that of course) helps with buying cheaper fruit and veg, when we can currently freely trade with the EU anyway for produce right on our doorstep.

Totally relevant to the question, sorry.
The other side is - what more can we sell lto the USA (as we do already) and other countries thats going to make up for the stuff we (or drop in the stuff) we sell to the EU.
I find it amusing (but tragicly so) that some people seem to think we do no trade with the USA at the moment - Under any new trade deal we get we not only have to maintain our current trade but find extra to sell to the USA.. funny I would have thought if we had anything to offer (other than the NHS) then we would ahve done it by now. Other EU countries manage to increase trade without having to self destruct.
 
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