Could LO take over Hertford East services from GA?

[Scottychoo]

Lots of talk today amongst LO staff of LO taking over GA Hertford East services from May 19.
Makes sense as they now have all the other former GA local routes.

 

[matt_world2004]

Lots of talk today amongst LO staff of LO taking over GA Hertford East services from May 19.
Makes sense as they now have all the other former GA local routes.

No there is no plan for LO to take over heartford East services. There is however a plan for them to take over great Northern services out of Moorgate in fact the DfT are quietly lobbying tfl to do this instead of the usual other way round.

 

[plcd1]

No there is no plan for LO to take over heartford East services. There is however a plan for them to take over great Northern services out of Moorgate in fact the DfT are quietly lobbying tfl to do this instead of the usual other way round.

Are they? DfT actively trying to dump stuff on TfL? I'm amazed. I know there are "suggestions" of a possible transfer come 2021/2 as it would help in restructuring the GTR franchise for retender (ditto re the WLL service to Milton Keynes) but I am surprised at it being at DfT's behest. I thought TfL were making the running on this.

As things stand with TfL and its likely finances come 2021 then there's no money for them to take any more national rail services. There's no budget for the preparatory work, no budget for the required station upgrades and rebranding and it's questionable if the GN Inners are notionally profitable. TfL's staffing regime for London Overground would put the cost of running the GN inners up (as it did for West Anglia) which would require operational subsidy. I can't see DfT and the Treasury agreeing to provide that *unless* there is real desperation at the DfT to get rid of what they may view as "peripheral" services. It was DfT who decided to withdraw the Overground grant support thus forcing another operation to be profitable or TfL to find cross subsidy from elsewhere in its empire.

 

[plcd1]

Lots of talk today amongst LO staff of LO taking over GA Hertford East services from May 19.
Makes sense as they now have all the other former GA local routes.

I think that's a lot of gossip. There is no indication from TfL that this is on the cards and why would DfT have left the Greater Anglia franchise in its same form when it was retendered a couple of years ago if there was any desire to transfer services? The only possible transfer option was for the extra STAR service due May 2019 and DfT have not opted to do that. The work to prepare for that would have had to have started long ago and TfL would have needed to up their incremental order for extra 710s to cover that route. They didn't do that. As things stand TfL will be lucky to have any 710s in service on West Anglia come next May.

 

[jopsuk]

At this point I can only see TfL taking over Herford East (and STAR, which may or may or may not be combined) as part of the preparation for the start of Crossrail 2 services, some time in the late 2020s or early 2030s.

 

[matt_world2004]

Are they? DfT actively trying to dump stuff on TfL? I'm amazed. I know there are "suggestions" of a possible transfer come 2021/2 as it would help in restructuring the GTR franchise for retender (ditto re the WLL service to Milton Keynes) but I am surprised at it being at DfT's behest. I thought TfL were making the running on this.

As things stand with TfL and its likely finances come 2021 then there's no money for them to take any more national rail services. There's no budget for the preparatory work, no budget for the required station upgrades and rebranding and it's questionable if the GN Inners are notionally profitable. TfL's staffing regime for London Overground would put the cost of running the GN inners up (as it did for West Anglia) which would require operational subsidy. I can't see DfT and the Treasury agreeing to provide that *unless* there is real desperation at the DfT to get rid of what they may view as "peripheral" services. It was DfT who decided to withdraw the Overground grant support thus forcing another operation to be profitable or TfL to find cross subsidy from elsewhere in its empire.

TfL do want the Southern wll services and the great Northern services out of Moorgate but as a bundle with other lines because then they can rationalise the operation across these lines to create fixed calling patterns and fixed terninuses. There is no point them just getting the Great Northern and Southern WLL services because they would be rather limited with what they can do with them.

The impression I get is that the DfT want Tfl to take over the Great Northern Moorgate services because it will allow for Tfl to shoulder the costs of the structural repair costs to these stations and the cost of step free access to the Great Northern Platforms at Moorgate.

 

[47421]

Seems unlikely, didn’t happen when WA inners were transferred few years ago, suggested then too difficult to change diagrams as Hert East inter worked with Camb and Stratford/Stortford services.

However, might now make more sense. Hertford East, Ware, St Margaret’s and Enfield Lock all 8 car max currently. GA required under franchise agreement to extend for 10 car 720 operation by Sept 2018. No work done, and neither GA nor Network Rail have confirmed work will be done. If not only 5 car 720s to Hert East unless 317s or other units retained. Some 317s having PRM mods done but who knows if enough will be done in time. 379s to Hert East? Perhaps but not really suited long term.

4/8 car 710s might make a lot of sense if are enough to go round. They would also be better suited to STAR all of which is 8 car platforms, although l *think* 10 car 720s will fit and use SDO. Is that right re platform 11 at Stratford? STAR bit of mystery no info on timetables yet and as discussed on other thread if not inter worked with Lea Valley services will need 2 units with long layovers at Stratford . Perhaps some Hert East services could be diverted to Stratford and units inter work with STAR?

 

[Helvellyn]

The impression I get is that the DfT want Tfl to take over the Great Northern Moorgate services because it will allow for Tfl to shoulder the costs of the structural repair costs to these stations and the cost of step free access to the Great Northern Platforms at Moorgate.

It would also allow DfT to put the remaining Great Northern services out of King's Cross (King's Lynn, Cambridge Express and Peterborough peak services) with LNER to remove a small operator and give LNER a bigger commuter base to underpin a franchise that is very heavy on leisure travel and ad hoc business travel.

That also helps Thameslink and Southern/Gatwick Express to be cleanly split at the end of the current GTR management contract.

 

[Gooner18]

The trains are fallen apart on that line , always breaking down , stations from Drayton park through to Moorgate and in very bad condition.

 

[MarkyT]

It would also allow DfT to put the remaining Great Northern services out of King's Cross (King's Lynn, Cambridge Express and Peterborough peak services) with LNER to remove a small operator and give LNER a bigger commuter base to underpin a franchise that is very heavy on leisure travel and ad hoc business travel.

That also helps Thameslink and Southern/Gatwick Express to be cleanly split at the end of the current GTR management contract.

I can't see why these services can't stay with Thameslink. While splitting the Thameslink operation off south of the Thames makes a lot of sense, north of London they will still operate all the suburbans on the MML. A few into Kings Cross, bound for a largely independent part of the terminus makes very little difference, simplifies fares and revenue split at a number of the suburban stations to Peterborough. Perhaps the Cambridge/Kings Lynn Expresses could sit well with LNER as a profitable add-on as these would not run into the revenue split and fares problem so much at intermediate stations from Cambridge. They don't stop at any!

 

[jon0844]

Wasn't there talk of spinning off the Cambridge to King's Lynn services back in the FCC days (2006)? Yet it didn't happen when the TSGN super franchise came along.

I assume there are many logistical issues, from ticketing issues, branding at stations, route knowledge for different drivers (maybe LNER drivers have this for diversions?), messroom and stabling facilities, how you'd manage the diagrams etc.

I assume it was looked at ages ago and discounted.

 

[Ianno87]

. Perhaps the Cambridge/Kings Lynn Expresses could sit well with LNER as a profitable add-on as these would not run into the revenue split and fares problem so much at intermediate stations from Cambridge. They don't stop at any!

Peak services stop at (sometimes) Letchworth plus Ashwell & Morden/Royston.