EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[nidave]

Ah but this is about politicians voting for other politicians. Quite a different matter to think about giving the general public a vote if you can possibly avoid it.

The voting public are not allowed to reconsider thier position apparently only MP's

 

[Howardh]

if they are not changing thier stance (or minds) why didnt they submit the letters a few weeks ago - could it be that curcamstances have changed?

The clever money is that after the vote was pulled a few Tory remainers submitted a letter, maybe to force a leadership vote and REINSTATE May so she could take on the headbangers and maybe relent on her red lines. If they have, they must have done their homework that (a) enough Tories are frightened by the thought of an ERG take-over and (b) May would use her new-found power to stamp them down.

 

[Senex]

MPs have not necessarily changed their mind. It's just that more have now formally expressed no confidence in their leader. Some would have been holding counsel after the last flurry of discontent led by the loathsome Mogglodyte, some would have been dismayed at the delaying of the meaningful vote on the EU Withdrawal Bill, and some would have realised that Theresa May had weakened her position further by going back to Europe yesterday with a begging bowl.

I think she'll win the simple majority she requires tonight. However, her position as party leader really rests on how big the win is. If she wins comfortably then she'll have the mandate to continue as party leader. If her win is only marginal then she may have to seriously consider her position.

Remember that Margaret Thatcher won the initial vote in the challenge to her leadership in 1990 (by nearly 15%, admittedly under different rules then), but it wasn't enough for to remain party leader. Enough discontent was expressed and she had no choice but to resign. Theresa May could face a similar dilemma. Winning the simple majority but not by enough of a margin to give her a mandate to continue.

Well know later tonight...

Margaret Thatcher recognised when she had to go. But surely everything that we've seen of May shews that she is extremely stubborn, extremely blinkered, and extremely rigid in her thinking (and the little speech in Downing Street this morning was no exception to the pattern). Does it not seem most likely that even if she does get a majority of only one she will claim that the parliamentary party has spoken and shewn that it is the will of the whole party that she should carry on (just as the whole of the British people want her Brexit)?

 

[Howardh]

Margaret Thatcher recognised when she had to go. But surely everything that we've seen of May shews that she is extremely stubborn, extremely blinkered, and extremely rigid in her thinking (and the little speech in Downing Street this morning was no exception to the pattern). Does it not seem most likely that even if she does get a majority of only one she will claim that the parliamentary party has spoken and shewn that it is the will of the whole party that she should carry on (just as the whole of the British people want her Brexit)?

Seems to me now that it's either May's deal or we have the cliff-edge Brexit (which Parliament doesn't want....so how does that play??) - but if May loses we are leaderless until the new year so A50 - even the ERG admits - may have to be extended.

In that case the EU could insist that there be an election or referendum; which could be binary cliff-edge or deal. Of course if May wins she could soften her stance to get the deal through.

 

[dosxuk]

A binary deal/no-deal referendum might just set a new record for number of votes spoilt in a referendum, not now even the government are admitting they could cancel the whole thing.

 

[Howardh]

A binary deal/no-deal referendum might just set a new record for number of votes spoilt in a referendum, .

Yes, I think I'd hand in soiled bog paper.

 

[EM2]

The detail difference is that they enacted the result of the first vote unlike the dreams of remainers.

They haven't had a chance to enact the result of the referendum yet.

 

[furnessvale]

They haven't had a chance to enact the result of the referendum yet.

Exactly. The result of the referendum must be enacted before the remainers dreams of a second vote can even be looked at.

 

[EM2]

What really annoys me is that there is a fixed two-year timeframe after the A50 notification to sort everything out. Yet the Government waste time on unneeded General Elections and leadership contests.

 

[EM2]

Exactly. The result of the referendum must be enacted before the remainers dreams of a second vote can even be looked at.

The result of the referendum was to leave. The UK is leaving.
It's the manner of that leaving that needs to be resolved.

 

[furnessvale]

The result of the referendum was to leave. The UK is leaving.
It's the manner of that leaving that needs to be resolved.

No problem then! We leave, no silly votes on staying in.

 

[EM2]

No problem then! We leave, no silly votes on staying in.

So why are we negotiating at all?

 

[furnessvale]

So why are we negotiating at all?

I have no idea. We have had 2 years+ to TELL the EU we are leaving, and prepare for a no deal brexit, but remainer May decided to let the EU set the agenda and make no preparations.

 

[dosxuk]

I have no idea. We have had 2 years+ to TELL the EU we are leaving, and prepare for a no deal brexit, but remainer May decided to let the EU set the agenda and make no preparations.

It's almost like leaving in a no-deal situation would be a very silly thing to do. Still, it would have the upsides of condemning this government to the history books, and stopping all the comments about "Project Fear" as even the hysterical bits would very quickly become seen to be true.

 

[nidave]

I have no idea. We have had 2 years+ to TELL the EU we are leaving, and prepare for a no deal brexit, but remainer May decided to let the EU set the agenda and make no preparations.

Assume you mean leave everything including the CU and SM. If so how do you stop the GFA being rendered invalid and a hard border in N. Ireland and ROI.

How are you going to keep the lights on in n. Ireland as when the GFA becomes invalid the electricity supply gets cut until a deal is made. N. Ireland does not have enough local generating capacity and the link to gb can't take up the slack.

 

[bramling]

I have no idea. We have had 2 years+ to TELL the EU we are leaving, and prepare for a no deal brexit, but remainer May decided to let the EU set the agenda and make no preparations.

I think this sums it up. For me, I’ve always been quite comfortable with the idea of no deal. However equally I’ve been comfortable with the idea of a deal *if we could get one* and it keeps more people happy. However it was reckless in the extreme to say “no deal is better than a bad deal” but not underpin that with actions.

The default position should have been we leave on 29th March with no deal, but in the meantime we will do best endeavours to get something.

The more the EU keep saying no I suspect the more likelihood there is of leave winning any second referendum.

 

[EM2]

I have no idea. We have had 2 years+ to TELL the EU we are leaving, and prepare for a no deal brexit, but remainer May decided to let the EU set the agenda and make no preparations.

There was no need to tell the EU, they already knew. So do you trust a Government that has put in place no structure at all for a possible cataclysm to actually deliver an outcome that will be good for the country?
'Cos I don't.

 

[Howardh]

This vote tonight gives May a huge opportunity to win; stuff the ERG into the dustbin and go ahead with a more moderate Brexit, she could even ditch her red lines and get that through Parliament.
If I were May tomorrow I'd sack the hard-liners from the cabinet.
Could be a win-win for soft-Brexit remainers and brexiters if she plays her cards right.

 

[bramling]

This vote tonight gives May a huge opportunity to win; stuff the ERG into the dustbin and go ahead with a more moderate Brexit, she could even ditch her red lines and get that through Parliament.
If I were May tomorrow I'd sack the hard-liners from the cabinet.
Could be a win-win for soft-Brexit remainers and brexiters if she plays her cards right.

I'm not sure winning the vote will strengthen May - unless she wins a really solid result (which I'd say is unlikely). Neither does it help her get her deal through the commons, so we're still in the situation of May's deal or no deal. I'd say it all really depends on what, if anything, she secures from the EU. The leadership situation is a bit of a distraction.

 

[Howardh]

I'm not sure winning the vote will strengthen May - unless she wins a really solid result (which I'd say is unlikely). Neither does it help her get her deal through the commons, so we're still in the situation of May's deal or no deal. I'd say it all really depends on what, if anything, she secures from the EU. The leadership situation is a bit of a distraction.

The point being she would be able to reach across to the opposition without worring about her own backside - she's in the clear for 12 months. She could get a more moderate Brexit through, we sail pass B-day with, I dunno, EFTA arrangement? EEA?? Norway +???, but after we leave she can resign, job done.
There's a feeling she may be twlling her MP's that if she wins tonight she will stand down before the next election. That, though, is dangerous as if Labour call a confidence motion, the ERG could vote no-confidence and see if May is true to her word.
But would the country as a whole want an ERG leader? Frankly they should either form their own party or join UKIP.
Anyhow, that's all academic, it's looking good for May at the moment.

 

[HH]

The vote is an irrelevance if she can't get her deal approved and that looks about as likely as the second coming happening next week.

What will she do when it's rejected by parliament?

 

[bramling]

The point being she would be able to reach across to the opposition without worring about her own backside - she's in the clear for 12 months. She could get a more moderate Brexit through, we sail pass B-day with, I dunno, EFTA arrangement? EEA?? Norway +???, but after we leave she can resign, job done.
There's a feeling she may be twlling her MP's that if she wins tonight she will stand down before the next election. That, though, is dangerous as if Labour call a confidence motion, the ERG could vote no-confidence and see if May is true to her word.
But would the country as a whole want an ERG leader? Frankly they should either form their own party or join UKIP.
Anyhow, that's all academic, it's looking good for May at the moment.

I wouldn't say it looks "good" for May. I suspect she'll survive tonight, but it certainly leaves her exposed. Everyone knew she wasn't going to be fighting the next election already - there's no way in a million years she was going to fight another election after what happened last time, the only exception perhaps being if she called a snap one.

None of this helps her get her deal through parliament, which is the real problem here. She may be able to water things down further without worrying about another challenge, however I don't think that will cut it.

 

[Howardh]

I wouldn't say it looks "good" for May. I suspect she'll survive tonight, but it certainly leaves her exposed. Everyone knew she wasn't going to be fighting the next election already - there's no way in a million years she was going to fight another election after what happened last time, the only exception perhaps being if she called a snap one.

None of this helps her get her deal through parliament, which is the real problem here. She may be able to water things down further without worrying about another challenge, however I don't think that will cut it.

I disagree, it means she's safe for 12 months. Not sure which is better though, being safe agaist those against you in your own party..or being safe against the opposition!
It's the old saying, the opposition is just the opposition, your own party is the enemy!

 

[bramling]

I disagree, it means she's safe for 12 months. Not sure which is better though, being safe agaist those against you in your own party..or being safe against the opposition!
It's the old saying, the opposition is just the opposition, your own party is the enemy!

I guess it depends on how comfortable her win is, and I'd say that is harder to call. She may well win comfortably, in which case she's probably strengthened (for now). However the more marginal the result the worse her position is.

I agree her position is probably going to be "back me now and I'll go ASAP".

However I don't think a leadership challenge has been her biggest problem. If anything by far her biggest headache has always been the integrity of the DUP arrangement, and I think that's still the case.

From conversations I'm hearing today, albeit not really a representative sample, the feeling I'm getting is people are warming to the no deal scenario.

 

[Howardh]

If anything by far her biggest headache has always been the integrity of the DUP arrangement, and I think that's still the case.

Well I think we can all agree whose fault THAT is!!

NB, £1b doesn't go very far, does it

 

[nidave]

The DUP are just like the Tories - they would stab you in the back if it got them what they wanted. Arlene Foster will burn bridges quicker than fuel in an RHI boiler.
I also love the fact that no one is able to come up with a hard brexit that solves the issue of the GFA - it keeps getting ignored. Its almost as if its hard to hammer the square peg into the round hole (and to steal from newsthump) the answer seems to be "change the hammer"

 

[bramling]

Well I think we can all agree whose fault THAT is!!

NB, £1b doesn't go very far, does it

Absolutely. She ballsed up the election which she shouldn't have called in the first place.

 

[fowler9]

I have no idea. We have had 2 years+ to TELL the EU we are leaving, and prepare for a no deal brexit, but remainer May decided to let the EU set the agenda and make no preparations.

The vote was never "do you want to bomb out of the EU with no agreement" hence why people saying every leave voter knew what they were voting for was a lie. If that was the case why didn't we just drop out? Why did the leave campaigners say we could stay in the single market and all of the other bobbins they came out with. What have we actually been negotiating? No leave voters knew what they voted for. You won. Get over it.

 

[3141]

Yet the Government waste time on unneeded General Elections and leadership contests.

No, it isn't the Government that is wasting time on a General Election. It's the Labour Party that wants one. It isn't the Government which is having a leadership election - it's the Conservative Party, because 15% or more of its MP want a different leader. You ought to know the difference.

None of this helps her get her deal through parliament, which is the real problem here. She may be able to water things down further without worrying about another challenge,

From conversations I'm hearing today, albeit not really a representative sample, the feeling I'm getting is people are warming to the no deal scenario.

​

For the moment at least, it really is either the deal TM has negotiated or no deal. Too many people are unwilling to accept the necessary compromises. That situation is inherent in the dilemmas which voting Leave in 2016 has created.

The Labour Party are so confident that they will win an election they are making no attempt to resolve the real issues, which are sorting out Brexit in a way that is least damaging. But I'm not surprised, because I certainly don't know how to do it! Perhaps their plan is that, once in power, they will claim that of course they would have tried but the Conservatives had left too much of a mess.

I can believe that people may be warming to the no deal scenario - in exasperation because the problems remain insoluble. "Cutting off your nose to spite your face" would be a suitable proverb. Anyone who advocates jumping off that particular cliff because they won't accept a somewhat less awful alternative would afterwards blame other people for not warning them.

 

[Howardh]

No, it isn't the Government that is wasting time on a General Election. It's the Labour Party that wants one. It isn't the Government which is having a leadership election - it's the Conservative Party, because 15% or more of its MP want a different leader. You ought to know the difference.

​

For the moment at least, it really is either the deal TM has negotiated or no deal. Too many people are unwilling to accept the necessary compromises. That situation is inherent in the dilemmas which voting Leave in 2016 has created.

The Labour Party are so confident that they will win an election they are making no attempt to resolve the real issues, which are sorting out Brexit in a way that is least damaging. But I'm not surprised, because I certainly don't know how to do it! Perhaps their plan is that, once in power, they will claim that of course they would have tried but the Conservatives had left too much of a mess.

I can believe that people may be warming to the no deal scenario - in exasperation because the problems remain insoluble. "Cutting off your nose to spite your face" would be a suitable proverb. Anyone who advocates jumping off that particular cliff because they won't accept a somewhat less awful alternative would afterwards blame other people for not warning them.

If (emboldened) the biggest issue is "freedom of movement" - if we actually stayed in the EU, if it's such an issue for one then it probably is for some other members, and there's a chance the UK and those could bang their heads together to come up with some kind of solution. I thought, like others - we have an "emergency brake" but never used it.

But it's all rather academic as it isn't EU's who are "flooding" into the country, it's people from elsewhere who we have "control" over. That won't change one jot if we leave, might even get more "flooding" in. Ah, well, that's £40bn well spent then.