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What is your controversial railway opinion/idea?

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Pigeon

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"useful" is a fairly meaningless word, in the context of "if they'd kept the line from x to y open, it'd have been useful".

It seems to be a useful word on the Forum, able to be deployed to justify benefits that are otherwise unquantifiable - ignoring the fact that lots of things are "useful" but these things would cost money and we can spend that money on other things.

It'd be "useful" if I had a pair of shoes for that activity that I only do every couple of years (insert sport here). It'd be "useful" if I had a spare room to accommodate those relatives who are only in the UK a couple of times a decade. It'd be "useful" if I had kept various things that ended up being donated to a charity shop. But there's Opportunity Cost, there's better use of resources and these things don't happen often enough to warrant having such "luxuries" the rest of the time. Just like it isn't worth keeping your favourite abandoned line open for the sake of a couple of weekends a year when it'd have been "useful" to have a diversionary alternative.

It's often a more useful way of describing benefits than by forcing them into some mould of quantification based around the false assumption that everything can validly be rated in units of pounds and pence, that produces results with the spurious authority conferred by numerical precision while concealing their fundamental uselessness deriving from basically having been pulled out of someone's arse.

This is a large part of why I despise the modern obsession with "BCR" assessments and the accompanying attitude that "report X gives a BCR of Y" is a cast-iron argument for or against whatever the report is about. A large proportion of the "costs", and well-nigh all of the "benefits", are either just plain made up or are equally meaningless numbers attempting to describe the colour of the sky in terms of money. Since the whole thing is 90% fudge to begin with, not only is it irredeemably meaningless anyway, but it is also trivial to make the conclusion support whatever outcome the people commissioning the report want it to support, and it would make far more sense to just not bother with the report at all.

People seem to have got the idea that because there are essentially no railway projects that don't attract the argument against them that you'll never even come close to getting your money back, the appropriate way to counter that argument is to make up amounts of money and assign them to various useful outcomes of the project to derive a figure that argues that actually you do get your money back. Of course what then happens is that other people can also make up amounts of money and assign them to other aspects of the project to argue the other way. The end result is that much time and money is wasted on making up figures and giving them to graphic designers to make fancy PDFs with, which not only doesn't get things any forrarder, but in practical terms moves them backwards - further discussion is hampered by the need to convert worshippers of the meaningless figures, and during the time wasted messing about the non-made-up costs have increased so much you pretty well end up starting all over again.

A more appropriate counter would be to point out that nearly everything cannot be meaningfully described in terms of money, therefore attempting to evaluate any project the overwhelming majority of whose consequences cannot be so described - which includes all railway projects, and indeed nearly all projects apart from the internal machinations of a financial institution - cannot be valid and it makes more sense to consider how useful it is.

This is especially the case when considering two projects that are interrelated - such as "providing a through route Plymouth-Tavistock-Okehampton-Exeter" and "providing a diversionary route avoiding Dawlish". The way the money approach is carried out means it pretty well has to consider them as purely isolated projects and ignore the interrelation, whereas with the usefulness approach the merits of a solution that satisfies both provisions with a single construction cannot be sensibly ignored.
 
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Bald Rick

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It's often a more useful way of describing benefits than by forcing them into some mould of quantification based around the false assumption that everything can validly be rated in units of pounds and pence, that produces results with the spurious authority conferred by numerical precision while concealing their fundamental uselessness deriving from basically having been pulled out of someone's arse.

This is a large part of why I despise the modern obsession with "BCR" assessments and the accompanying attitude that "report X gives a BCR of Y" is a cast-iron argument for or against whatever the report is about. A large proportion of the "costs", and well-nigh all of the "benefits", are either just plain made up or are equally meaningless numbers attempting to describe the colour of the sky in terms of money. Since the whole thing is 90% fudge to begin with, not only is it irredeemably meaningless anyway, but it is also trivial to make the conclusion support whatever outcome the people commissioning the report want it to support, and it would make far more sense to just not bother with the report at all.

People seem to have got the idea that because there are essentially no railway projects that don't attract the argument against them that you'll never even come close to getting your money back, the appropriate way to counter that argument is to make up amounts of money and assign them to various useful outcomes of the project to derive a figure that argues that actually you do get your money back. Of course what then happens is that other people can also make up amounts of money and assign them to other aspects of the project to argue the other way. The end result is that much time and money is wasted on making up figures and giving them to graphic designers to make fancy PDFs with, which not only doesn't get things any forrarder, but in practical terms moves them backwards - further discussion is hampered by the need to convert worshippers of the meaningless figures, and during the time wasted messing about the non-made-up costs have increased so much you pretty well end up starting all over again.

A more appropriate counter would be to point out that nearly everything cannot be meaningfully described in terms of money, therefore attempting to evaluate any project the overwhelming majority of whose consequences cannot be so described - which includes all railway projects, and indeed nearly all projects apart from the internal machinations of a financial institution - cannot be valid and it makes more sense to consider how useful it is.

This is especially the case when considering two projects that are interrelated - such as "providing a through route Plymouth-Tavistock-Okehampton-Exeter" and "providing a diversionary route avoiding Dawlish". The way the money approach is carried out means it pretty well has to consider them as purely isolated projects and ignore the interrelation, whereas with the usefulness approach the merits of a solution that satisfies both provisions with a single construction cannot be sensibly ignored.

Perhaps, then:

1) devise a new and better assessment method, back up by detailed research and application
2) get a job at the DfT, and make it happen
 

gingertom

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Perhaps, then:

1) devise a new and better assessment method, back up by detailed research and application
2) get a job at the DfT, and make it happen

needs somebody rail-friendly at the treasury, as they hold the purse strings.
 

yorksrob

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It's often a more useful way of describing benefits than by forcing them into some mould of quantification based around the false assumption that everything can validly be rated in units of pounds and pence, that produces results with the spurious authority conferred by numerical precision while concealing their fundamental uselessness deriving from basically having been pulled out of someone's arse.

This is a large part of why I despise the modern obsession with "BCR" assessments and the accompanying attitude that "report X gives a BCR of Y" is a cast-iron argument for or against whatever the report is about. A large proportion of the "costs", and well-nigh all of the "benefits", are either just plain made up or are equally meaningless numbers attempting to describe the colour of the sky in terms of money. Since the whole thing is 90% fudge to begin with, not only is it irredeemably meaningless anyway, but it is also trivial to make the conclusion support whatever outcome the people commissioning the report want it to support, and it would make far more sense to just not bother with the report at all.

People seem to have got the idea that because there are essentially no railway projects that don't attract the argument against them that you'll never even come close to getting your money back, the appropriate way to counter that argument is to make up amounts of money and assign them to various useful outcomes of the project to derive a figure that argues that actually you do get your money back. Of course what then happens is that other people can also make up amounts of money and assign them to other aspects of the project to argue the other way. The end result is that much time and money is wasted on making up figures and giving them to graphic designers to make fancy PDFs with, which not only doesn't get things any forrarder, but in practical terms moves them backwards - further discussion is hampered by the need to convert worshippers of the meaningless figures, and during the time wasted messing about the non-made-up costs have increased so much you pretty well end up starting all over again.

A more appropriate counter would be to point out that nearly everything cannot be meaningfully described in terms of money, therefore attempting to evaluate any project the overwhelming majority of whose consequences cannot be so described - which includes all railway projects, and indeed nearly all projects apart from the internal machinations of a financial institution - cannot be valid and it makes more sense to consider how useful it is.

This is especially the case when considering two projects that are interrelated - such as "providing a through route Plymouth-Tavistock-Okehampton-Exeter" and "providing a diversionary route avoiding Dawlish". The way the money approach is carried out means it pretty well has to consider them as purely isolated projects and ignore the interrelation, whereas with the usefulness approach the merits of a solution that satisfies both provisions with a single construction cannot be sensibly ignored.

Precisely.

It seems bizarre that the BCR methodology can apportion value to time savings, or calculate loss of fuel VAT, yet no one seems to have found a way to quantify increased access to employment, educational or leisure activities afforded by public transport, let alone (heaven forfend) add it to the benefit of being able to divert a train around disruption.
 

Bald Rick

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Precisely.

It seems bizarre that the BCR methodology can apportion value to time savings, or calculate loss of fuel VAT, yet no one seems to have found a way to quantify increased access to employment, educational or leisure activities afforded by public transport, let alone (heaven forfend) add it to the benefit of being able to divert a train around disruption.

Well come up with a viable alternative then!

Nevertheless, the value of being able to divert a train around disruption is calculated, that is easy. And improved accessibility is also captured in Level 2 / 3 of BCR calculations. Treasury is less keen on L2 / L3 benefits, as they are notoriously difficult to estimate to any reasonable degree of accuracy, whereas the L1 benefits generally are.
 

Bald Rick

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needs somebody rail-friendly at the treasury, as they hold the purse strings.

There’s plenty of them that are rail friendly, I can assure you. If there weren’t, there are an awful lot of projects that have happened in the last 15 years that would still be in a filing cabinet, and there would be a thread on here titled ‘Reopening the branch lines of Lincolnshire’.
 

yorksrob

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Well come up with a viable alternative then!

Nevertheless, the value of being able to divert a train around disruption is calculated, that is easy. And improved accessibility is also captured in Level 2 / 3 of BCR calculations. Treasury is less keen on L2 / L3 benefits, as they are notoriously difficult to estimate to any reasonable degree of accuracy, whereas the L1 benefits generally are.

I think there is a good case for a proper academic review of this methodology, to better quantify those benefits.
 

Indigo Soup

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On the contrary, my house came with the spare room that my friend stays in twice a year, and it is far more cost effective to maintain that room under a reduced maintenance (hoovering) regime, rather than closing (demolishing) it and damaging the overall structure of my house, and potentially having to go through the much greater expense of rebuilding it, should my friend move jobs and have to lodge here.
If you were having trouble paying the mortgage, would that useful spare room still look like such a good idea? Or might you look at moving to a smaller, cheaper house?
 

yorksrob

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If you were having trouble paying the mortgage, would that useful spare room still look like such a good idea? Or might you look at moving to a smaller, cheaper house?

If we're continuing with the railway analogy, moving to another house would be like taking over SNCF instead, so no, not a meaningful proposition.

Remember, we're stuck with the house the Victorians provided to us. We have the options to demolish, extend and refurbish.
 

Bald Rick

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I think there is a good case for a proper academic review of this methodology, to better quantify those benefits.

It is been continually updated through academic research, impirical data collected from a range of sources, and reviews post project completion.
 

yorksrob

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It is been continually updated through academic research, impirical data collected from a range of sources, and reviews post project completion.

But alas we're still awaiting those vital L2/L3 benefits to be accepted by the treasury.
 

Bald Rick

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But alas we're still awaiting those vital L2/L3 benefits to be accepted by the treasury.

Well, yes, but if they were, it would have to apply to everything, including road schemes. And Road schemes do very well on L2 L3 benefits.
 

yorksrob

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Well, yes, but if they were, it would have to apply to everything, including road schemes. And Road schemes do very well on L2 L3 benefits.

True.

That said, accessibility for those who are potentially disadvantaged (which must surely include those who can't physically, or economically) and who can't run a car, should hold an uplift in the calculation.
 

Indigo Soup

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If we're continuing with the railway analogy, moving to another house would be like taking over SNCF instead, so no, not a meaningful proposition.

Remember, we're stuck with the house the Victorians provided to us. We have the options to demolish, extend and refurbish.
It's a poor analogy because railways aren't houses. You can move houses, you can't move railways.

Though if you're going with the Victorian family estate as an analogy, a third of the estate may well turn out to be unproductive waste ground and derelict cottages. Far better to sell it off to housing developers than to let the expense of keeping it run the estate to ruin.
 

tasky

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- Cost-benefit analyses are mostly total garbage that are based on unsound guesses and assumptions and ignore other important factors, and we have a much more limited railway network because of it

- If you build any half-sensible railway line between any two points in Greater London it will be full to capacity and paying its way almost immediately

EDIT: didn't even read to the end of the thread, glad someone has already got to CBA before me
 
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