Your suggestions for the next Southeastern franchise

[hwl]

If you take that literally, then the new franchise winner better fix up or replace the 376s very quickly

You could argue 100% of cl.376 toilets work

 

[Mikey C]

Woolwich/Charlton to Blackheath/Lewisham is a popular connection, after all it is connecting two major centres Lewisham and Woolwich. Plus you access the Victoria trains from Lewisham as well. Having to use the DLR via Greenwich would definitely be a retrograde step for many users.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Just because the trains may not necessarily be full and standing the entire way doesn’t mean that the services won’t be both much busier between, say, Gravesend and Abbey Wood as they are used to feed the new behemoth that is Crossrail. Indeed, the provision of something akin to 4tph from Gravesend to Cannon all stops via Greenwich and 2tph from each of Barnehurst and Crayford (starting back from wherever) will be extremely important.

I believe you are correct that east of Abbey Wood, the services will become busier after Crossrail opens. However, the context is that - in my experience - the trains currently tend to be very lightly loaded beyond Abbey Wood, so there's plenty of space for more people on that part of the route without worrying about increasing the frequency. Besides, if I've understood you correctly, you're basically arguing for removing the 2tph via Lewisham and adding 2tph via Greenwich... that wouldn't actually increase the frequency at all east of Charlton.

It does, however, make the prospect of 8 car Ops every 7-8 mins as a clockface service via Greenwich all stops vastly more attractive as people seek to connect with trains running every 5-8 mins depending on the time of day. Moreover, a lesser number of people on trains east of Charlton through to London freeing up capacity for people in the Westcombe / Greenwich / Deptford corridor makes that service indeed more attractive;

I'm not convinced that a train every 7-8 minutes is actually much more attractive than a train every 10 minutes: While notionally more frequent, it also makes it harder for people to remember the times the trains go at. I think the only real justification for doing that would be if it turned out that trains were massively overcrowded around Greenwich after Crossrail, and you could find paths at Cannon Street. I doubt that either of those will be the case (other than the usual crowding in peak flows).

and passengers who seriously need Blackheath can use the 53/54 from Woolwich or the 108 from Westcombe Park or those going to Lewisham can get the DLR.

Whaaaat? You're seriously arguing that, in order to reduce the maximum wait time by 2 minutes - from 10 minutes to 8 minutes - at some stations, passengers on another very well used route should be forced onto slow (and often already crowded) buses? Do you really think that's a good example of good public transport planning? Besides, the via Lewisham train doesn't only cater for passengers from Woolwich. For example I sometimes travel from Abbey Wood to Blackheath. How's your bus proposal going to help me? The 53 and 54 buses don't go anywhere near Abbey Wood!

Any notion after Crossrail opens (serving, for example, Liverpool Street / Farringdon / TCR / Bond Street / Paddington) that people seriously want to go from Erith or Belvedere to Charing Cross on a direct train is bogus. They will all want to get on the vastly quicker Crossrail to the heart of the West End or indeed to the City. Even those who want St Pancras will use it to Farringdon!

Actually I'm fairly sure that the CHX-Lewisham-Woolwich trains will be diverted to Cannon Street anyway with the new franchise. That was certainly in the franchise spec that was released earlier in the year. So I don't think this is really about direct trains to CHX - those will probably disappear anyway (somewhat to my regret as I quite value the direct service). I think it's really more about that those trains provide a very useful direct link between Lewisham, Blackheath and the Woolwich line - and it would inconvenience a lot of people if that link disappeared.

I do by the way agree with you about the need for a regular clockface and fixed-interval frequency. The current timetable is sadly lacking in that regard at many stations, but I don't think the solution is to remove a well used link to Lewisham.

 

[HH]

In an Abellio-win scenario (or Govia, I hope not), would the new Metro fleet likely consist of the Hitachi AT100 model (that has been mentioned on this thread before)?

Reading the Hitachi page about the proposed stock, it would be a very suitable fit I think, given the car no. configuration options, top speed and all-round versatility, the latter emphasised by the need to have 465s on outer suburban services still, where 375s alone are not enough.

As new as the 707s are, the nature of the SE franchise is multiples of 4, not 5, let alone there only being 30 units, so I think their best use is with pantographs up north. As for 458s they'd better not come this way, again given the wrong car configurations, but more so I think it would be ironic if, given their history, the Networkers low reliability caused them to be replaced with a fleet whose reliability record maybe considered even worse.

1. I don't believe that any bidders are proposing Hitachis. Hitachi might have their hands full supplying the existing order book?

2. Have you forgotten the 377s from GTR? There's now 100 vehicles.

3. SE is not just multiples of 4; they have 2-, 3- and 4-car trains; some peak services run 10-car and guess what 2x5 is... Besides as has been shown in the past, units can be re-configured - when that is the only option. The 707s can fill a hole, early, if extra capacity is needed and they're possibly cheaper than 377s.

 

[brad465]

1. I don't believe that any bidders are proposing Hitachis. Hitachi might have their hands full supplying the existing order book?

2. Have you forgotten the 377s from GTR? There's now 100 vehicles.

3. SE is not just multiples of 4; they have 2-, 3- and 4-car trains; some peak services run 10-car and guess what 2x5 is... Besides as has been shown in the past, units can be re-configured - when that is the only option. The 707s can fill a hole, early, if extra capacity is needed and they're possibly cheaper than 377s.

Yes I did forget the 377s, I'll give you that , but from experience and other thread posts, I don't believe they've gone far enough to get the number of 12 car services on the metro routes to where it's needed. For example, as much as I enjoy a Networker ride on a Tunbridge Wells train, if it was possible for all the units involved to run metro services more, the metro issue maybe at least almost solved. I hope the new operator gets the 377s refurbished ASAP, as their interior is low-grade relative to 375s at the moment, but that's another story.

As for the multiples thing, I forgot the 3 factor, but I didn't include the 466s being 2 car as I do not foresee any new stock, given the unit configurations of recent rolling stock built for other operators, being that specific length. I must admit though, as has been floated as an idea earlier in this thread, if the 707s were extended to 6 car length, then I think there is a better fit for them here.

 

[Mikey C]

If the 707s have flaws which made them unsuitable for SW services, I don't see why they would be any more suitable for SE services. Charing Cross IS a problem, but otherwise the SE Metro services are set up to run 12 car services.

I believe that Stagecoach were partnered with Alstom for this bid, while the other operators were bidding with Hitachi.

 

[HH]

If the 707s have flaws which made them unsuitable for SW services, I don't see why they would be any more suitable for SE services. Charing Cross IS a problem, but otherwise the SE Metro services are set up to run 12 car services.

The SE Network is a lot slower than the SW one, even after all the money that has been spent. The 707s might be seeing an upgrade. For the ROSCO, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, without spending money to convert to AC (still with no buyer in sight).

 

[ComUtoR]

Charing Cross IS a problem, but otherwise the SE Metro services are set up to run 12 car services.

Victoria is a problem and services via the Chatham Main are limited to 8-Cars. The Catford Loop is also limited to 8. You also have stabling issues with 12 Car units. You also have problems with 5/10 as your either too big or too small :/

 

[Geogregor]

I don't think any of the bidders plan their bids around possible passenger growth/decline (depending on route and station) after Crossrail. At this stage it would be extremely difficult to reliably predict the flows. The new railway will need months of full service (unlikely in 2019) for commuter's pasterns to be established. Initially a lot of people will experiment, eventually some strange patterns might appear.

 

[hwl]

I don't think any of the bidders plan their bids around possible passenger growth/decline (depending on route and station) after Crossrail. At this stage it would be extremely difficult to reliably predict the flows. The new railway will need months of full service (unlikely in 2019) for commuter's pasterns to be established. Initially a lot of people will experiment, eventually some strange patterns might appear.

Actually I think 2 of the bidders probably have and also remember the transfer of some service to Thameslink too, even a SE franchise growing on each route will have fewer passengers in total for quite while as they lose routes etc..

 

[urpert]

The SE Network is a lot slower than the SW one, even after all the money that has been spent. The 707s might be seeing an upgrade. For the ROSCO, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, without spending money to convert to AC (still with no buyer in sight).

Clearly there aren’t enough of them for Networker replacement - are you suggesting a mix of re-configure and new build?

 

[Ronnie268]

I don't think any of the bidders plan their bids around possible passenger growth/decline (depending on route and station) after Crossrail. At this stage it would be extremely difficult to reliably predict the flows. The new railway will need months of full service (unlikely in 2019) for commuter's pasterns to be established. Initially a lot of people will experiment, eventually some strange patterns might appear.

I think you'd get hammered if you didn't plan around the passenger reduction due to Crossrail, so I'd be extremely surprised if bidders didn't come up with some assumptions around the timetable. Then the standard timetabling software (MOIRA) will give a good estimate of the revenue loss.

 

[BluePenguin]

The SE Network is a lot slower than the SW one, even after all the money that has been spent. The 707s might be seeing an upgrade. For the ROSCO, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, without spending money to convert to AC (still with no buyer in sight).

Why is it slower? I suppose the stops heading towards kent are all very close together compared to the ones towards Surrey.

 

[HH]

Clearly there aren’t enough of them for Networker replacement - are you suggesting a mix of re-configure and new build?

They will not replace anything fully, but I know that two bidders were looking to make use of them - in different ways.

Why is it slower? I suppose the stops heading towards kent are all very close together compared to the ones towards Surrey.

There are numerous infrastructure issues that reduce speed; it's a pretty complex network compared to SW.

 

[Class 170101]

I think you'd get hammered if you didn't plan around the passenger reduction due to Crossrail, so I'd be extremely surprised if bidders didn't come up with some assumptions around the timetable. Then the standard timetabling software (MOIRA) will give a good estimate of the revenue loss.

MOIRA is not great at predicting revenue growth so I've heard.

However I would be more interested in whether people think there is supressed demand due to insufficient capacity currently and whether Crossrail will create demand rather than reduce it.

 

[Mikey C]

A LOT of new houses are being built along the Thames at the moment, and for the next few years. There will certainly be no shortage of new potential rail users, even if Crossrail removes some of those from Woolwich eastwards

 

[HH]

MOIRA is not great at predicting revenue growth so I've heard.

Not surprising, since that isn't its function. MOIRA is solely a tool for predicting the effect of changes to the timetable (all things else being equal). It's generally regarded as being pretty good at that.

 

[ScotGG]

A LOT of new houses are being built along the Thames at the moment, and for the next few years. There will certainly be no shortage of new potential rail users, even if Crossrail removes some of those from Woolwich eastwards

Yep. Whilst Ebbsfleet hogs the headlines (and government mentions) at 15k homes, areas within London dwarf it when added together and in areas closer to SE than the tube etc. Charlton alone will see more than half Ebbsfleet's total at 8k homes. Deptford about 5k+. Plumstead around 4k and closer to SE than Crossrail. Bexley Council also want 20k on an arc along the SE line. Even if people use Crossrail they'll probably transfer at Abbey Wood to and from SE metro. Could go on with 10+ more examples of very large development sites within the M25.

I'm far from convinced the DfT "get" this, and just think the tube/crossrail/buses suffice and they focus out of London. Tfl DO get it to a greater extent as they know rail is the main transport method for many potential commuters.

 

[hwl]

Yep. Whilst Ebbsfleet hogs the headlines (and government mentions) at 15k homes, areas within London dwarf it when added together and in areas closer to SE than the tube etc. Charlton alone will see more than half Ebbsfleet's total at 8k homes. Deptford about 5k+. Plumstead around 4k and closer to SE than Crossrail. Bexley Council also want 20k on an arc along the SE line. Even if people use Crossrail they'll probably transfer at Abbey Wood to and from SE metro. Could go on with 10+ more examples of very large development sites within the M25.

I'm far from convinced the DfT "get" this, and just think the tube/crossrail/buses suffice and they focus out of London. Tfl DO get it to a greater extent as they know rail is the main transport method for many potential commuters.

Largely agreed, Crossrail trains at Abbey Wood would be less than a third full if everyone changed from SE so plenty of room to absorb local users from Abbey Wood and Woolwich. TfL will pick a fairly valuable portion of the ticket revenue from those changing to Crossrail at Abbey Wood as the step into Zone 1 is the big prize, hence it isn't just about passenger numbers but who get what part of the value

 

[Barn]

Do we think there are enough trains from Kent to deposit people at Abbey Wood?

Only 2tph in the South Eastern ITT link Dartford with Abbey Wood, and those trains also call at Woolwich Dockyard thus making 12-car operation tricky without SDO and a risk assessment.

Presumably the 1-2tph Thameslink service will continue, although that hasn't been confirmed yet. That is itself 8-car only.

 

[cle]

It's pretty poor for a feeder.

Until Crossrail heads east, they need to consider other things like swapping some loop services to other lines (e.g. 4tph via Bexley and via Barnehurst) to extend out to Dartford and beyond via Greenwich. The Blackheath route also helps, either as a loop option or for another service. Ideally Abbey Wood could have had a bay or third SE platform built - even if for a supplementary shuttle service not continuing to London.

 

[hwl]

Do we think there are enough trains from Kent to deposit people at Abbey Wood?

Only 2tph in the South Eastern ITT link Dartford with Abbey Wood, and those trains also call at Woolwich Dockyard thus making 12-car operation tricky without SDO and a risk assessment.

Presumably the 1-2tph Thameslink service will continue, although that hasn't been confirmed yet. That is itself 8-car only.

No and that will really frustrate TfL as they want /need the money!

 

[Geogregor]

Yep. Whilst Ebbsfleet hogs the headlines (and government mentions) at 15k homes, areas within London dwarf it when added together and in areas closer to SE than the tube etc. Charlton alone will see more than half Ebbsfleet's total at 8k homes. Deptford about 5k+. Plumstead around 4k and closer to SE than Crossrail. Bexley Council also want 20k on an arc along the SE line. Even if people use Crossrail they'll probably transfer at Abbey Wood to and from SE metro. Could go on with 10+ more examples of very large development sites within the M25.

Sure, that's a lot of potential customers. The question is how many of those homes will be occupied in the life of the new franchise. It would make quite a difference into SE revenue if they mostly occupied in 3-4 years from now rather than in 5-7. Charlton developments are years away.
Actually, I forgot, how long will the new franchise last.

As for Crossrail they obviously have to model for it but there are still a lot of unknowns. How many people switch from SE to Crossrail at Abbey Wood? How many extra passengers east of Abbey Wood will Crossrail bring? It is incredibly difficult to predict and model. It is easy to overbid by making the most optimistic assumptions (smallest possible shift to Crossrail and at the same time largest extra revenue east of Abbey Wood).

 

[NorthKent1989]

Do we think there are enough trains from Kent to deposit people at Abbey Wood?

Only 2tph in the South Eastern ITT link Dartford with Abbey Wood, and those trains also call at Woolwich Dockyard thus making 12-car operation tricky without SDO and a risk assessment.

Presumably the 1-2tph Thameslink service will continue, although that hasn't been confirmed yet. That is itself 8-car only.

Not sure if it was on here or a SE London related news blog but weren’t they looking to review the ITT and run it local
authorities,due to unsatisfactory elements to the ITT and something to do with franchise stuff?

And that’s an interesting point if the Gillingham/Rainham service is no longer ran by Thameslink in 2022 (praying to the rail gods this comes to pass) then how will the new franchise go about this issue? I’ve not really thought about that

 

[Barn]

And that’s an interesting point if the Gillingham/Rainham service is no longer ran by Thameslink in 2022 (praying to the rail gods this comes to pass) then how will the new franchise go about this issue? I’ve not really thought about that

Losing the Thameslink service is only a good thing if it is replaced by something better, and we already have details of what the Southeastern services will be for the next several years.

 

[londonteacher]

Losing the Thameslink service is only a good thing if it is replaced by something better, and we already have details of what the Southeastern services will be for the next several years.

And as someone who lives on this route it has been nice to gain reliable (this route is pretty reliable) Thameslink route. If all of the SE trains became clockface to Cannon Street there is no reason as to why a service to Blackfriars and further north couldn't become part of this.

The Thameslink could go via Lewisham and avoid crossing over the lines into London Bridge (I think so anyway but i am no expert.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

The whole thing is pointless. It would be better on routes where it would be both useful and also where the franchisee only provides a limited service. Ashford via Maidstone East and Gillingham via Longfield are both arguably the prime candidates due to their 8 car length; and their ability to take over from Victoria trains and operate either via Herne Hill or Denmark Hill.

 

[ScotGG]

Sure, that's a lot of potential customers. The question is how many of those homes will be occupied in the life of the new franchise. It would make quite a difference into SE revenue if they mostly occupied in 3-4 years from now rather than in 5-7. Charlton developments are years away.
Actually, I forgot, how long will the new franchise last.

The franchise 9 or 10 years this time so a bit longer than previous. Much of it will be underway in that time, though of course when is a big question.

I think a lot of big schemes are already in advanced stages of planning. Charlton has a few totalling 3k homes approved, in planning or going to appeal. Plumstead has 1,500 I think it is at advanced stage. Woolwich has tons but I expect most will use Crossrail solely. Deptford loads too at various stages. Convoys Wharf will be massive and stage 1 now in for planning.

 

[NorthKent1989]

And as someone who lives on this route it has been nice to gain reliable (this route is pretty reliable) Thameslink route. If all of the SE trains became clockface to Cannon Street there is no reason as to why a service to Blackfriars and further north couldn't become part of this.

The Thameslink could go via Lewisham and avoid crossing over the lines into London Bridge (I think so anyway but i am no expert.

1tph isn’t reliable considering it replaced a previous service which was 2tph, up to now we have yet to see this run the full 2tph.

The Lewisham route is better since no NKE Junction issue, so far there’s been no issue I know that, but if issues do arise then the Thameslink network will be fouled up.

If CX are set to go from 2022 then this change may as well happen.

 

[Barn]

The Lewisham route is better since no NKE Junction issue, so far there’s been no issue I know that, but if issues do arise then the Thameslink network will be fouled up.
.

That means only 4tph through Greenwich though.