ATW - Threat to WSMR and Evergreen 3?

[Chafford1]

DB Regio UK are objecting strongly to ATW's proposals for Aberystwyth - Marylebone services, threatening to withdraw the WSMR services and stating that the the new services would have a serious impact on the Evergreen 3 upgrade.

http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/s22-atw-38sa-chiltern-191009.pdf

http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/s22-atw-38sa-chiltern-app1.pdf

 

[The Planner]

Id love to give to give some answers to that as it has made me laugh, a lot. Talk about sour grapes !! Sadly enjoying the job I do, I have to keep my gob shut.

 

[Chafford1]

Strange how a couple of tatty 2 car 158s can put an entire £200 upgrade programme in jeopardy!!

So DB Regio would (a) immediately put WSMR into liquidation and (b) pull out of Evergreen 3 (including the Oxford upgrade), thus reducing the length of the Chiltern franchise??

A great way of generating bad publicity for your company!

 

[seventh-heaven]

I don't see them saying that they will pull out of Evergreen 3? It seems to me that they are making the point that Chiltern are having to put a significant investment in and are not keen for others to come along and use up the capacity that they have paid dearly to create.

 

[bengley]

Don't be pathetic, chiltern. If you don't want ATW to run the service, do it yourself then I would understand.

 

[paul1609]

Strange how a couple of tatty 2 car 158s can put an entire £200 upgrade programme in jeopardy!!

So DB Regio would (a) immediately put WSMR into liquidation and (b) pull out of Evergreen 3 (including the Oxford upgrade), thus reducing the length of the Chiltern franchise??

A great way of generating bad publicity for your company!

It was strongly rumoured that DB were going to put WSMR in to administration in mid september. This was apparently avoided by the merger with Chiltern. Its not really been announced publically what this will entail but I reckon that the majority of Wrexham services will be 168 dmus sometime next year. Realistically if someone comes along and takes say 33% of the Shrewsbury/ Telford to london revenue WSMR is a dead duck so Yes I reckon they would pull the plug.

 

[tbtc]

You really have to admire their chutzpah - if they can complain about "revenue abstraction" and keep a straight face then... gosh. Chiltern have invested and invested well on the southern side of things - but I can't see a couple of 158s from the Cambrian line affecting that majorly. The marginal WMSR traffic may be another story - expect to see the Chiltern BUbble Car rebranded accordingly for when even a 168 is too big

 

[merlodlliw]

Good Morning.

In my opinion, The ORR will grant the Manchester Airport application by ATW
which as WAG Ministerial support.
but refuse the Aber to Marylebone application which as no WAG support,only
deep questions about the use of the All Wales franchise rolling stock being used out of area.

As for tit for tat, I recall ATW putting in a 17 page letter to the ORR against W/S start up two years ago, so no surprise DB object.

 

[steve099]

I was in support of any future services running via Shrewsbury but having now sampled Wrexham & Shropshire's new stock, I don't see how anyone in their right mind would choose to use an ATW 158, albeit refurbished, all the way from Aber to London. Infact, 3 hours is long enough aboard one train as it is. And considering that WSMR appear to have proven to some extent that their model is based on revenue/passanger abstraction rather than of generation, I can only disagree with what is proposed.

 

[tbtc]

In my opinion, The ORR will grant the Manchester Airport application by ATW which as WAG Ministerial support. but refuse the Aber to Marylebone application which as no WAG support,only deep questions about the use of the All Wales franchise rolling stock being used out of area

Questions about why the All Wales franchise rolling stock is being used out of area from Manchester to Manchester Airport?

 

[TDK]

Don't be pathetic, chiltern. If you don't want ATW to run the service, do it yourself then I would understand.

That is a pathetic comment as ATW hold the rights to the Aber line and also have the stock that houses RETB, WSMR are already running services from North Wales to London, maybe ATW could retime their services to connect with the WSMR services and that way they will be giving their customers a service without the cost of running their own, don't you think ATW should put the money into giving the people of Wales a better more comfortable service anstead of wasting money on the sour grapes application?

 

[merlodlliw]

Questions about why the All Wales franchise rolling stock is being used out of area from Manchester to Manchester Airport?

No of course not, the service to Ringway is using the all Wales Franchise stock
that lies idle for over an hour with its engines running, not a pie in the sky idea
that takes the All Wales Franchise stock out of area for over 6 hours.
ATWs predecessor FNW ran to Ringway from Chester , so nothing new about the service.

 

[Pumbaa]

It was strongly rumoured that DB were going to put WSMR in to administration in mid september. This was apparently avoided by the merger with Chiltern. Its not really been announced publically what this will entail but I reckon that the majority of Wrexham services will be 168 dmus sometime next year. Realistically if someone comes along and takes say 33% of the Shrewsbury/ Telford to london revenue WSMR is a dead duck so Yes I reckon they would pull the plug.

I agree - and it won't be long I don't think. Shame, but it is business after all.

Edit - The Fact Compiler has also picked up on this.

 

[tbtc]

No of course not, the service to Ringway is using the all Wales Franchise stock
that lies idle for over an hour with its engines running, not a pie in the sky idea
that takes the All Wales Franchise stock out of area for over 6 hours.
ATWs predecessor FNW ran to Ringway from Chester , so nothing new about the service.

Nothing new about an Aberyswyth to London service either...

Truth is that WMSR should have gone for an Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury - London service in the first place - it's a much bigger "draw".

However, if they are so scared about six trains per week, things must be looking bad...

 

[Chafford1]

Nothing new about an Aberyswyth to London service either...

Truth is that WMSR should have gone for an Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury - London service in the first place - it's a much bigger "draw".

However, if they are so scared about six trains per week, things must be looking bad...

WSMR trains aren't ERTMS compatible - so they can't operate on the Cambrian line.

 

[Daimler]

It was strongly rumoured that DB were going to put WSMR in to administration in mid september. This was apparently avoided by the merger with Chiltern. Its not really been announced publically what this will entail but I reckon that the majority of Wrexham services will be 168 dmus sometime next year. Realistically if someone comes along and takes say 33% of the Shrewsbury/ Telford to london revenue WSMR is a dead duck so Yes I reckon they would pull the plug.

Not according to Modern Railways Magazine - at least, not according to their Chiltern/WSMR sources, which say that the 168s will not be used for normal trains owing to their lack of facilities.

 

[gingerheid]

And in other news: Arriva threaten to withdraw their local bus services across the UK and to cancel orders for any new buses across Europe if someone is allowed to start a competing bus service between Aberystwyth and Porthmadog.

I don't think so. :roll:

 

[merlodlliw]

Nothing new about an Aberyswyth to London service either...

Truth is that WMSR should have gone for an Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury - London service in the first place - it's a much bigger "draw".



1. When did Aber trains ever go to Marylebone?

2.Explain bigger draw?

 

[The Planner]

WSMR trains aren't ERTMS compatible - so they can't operate on the Cambrian line.

Stick a 97 on the front and they could. Wouldnt be allowed to go as quick as a 158 under ERTMS, but it was an option....
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

1. When did Aber trains ever go to Marylebone?

2.Explain bigger draw?

1. I dont think they did, but there were certainly Euston Abers in days gone by. The terminus isnt important though really.
2. Aber is a bigger catch in terms of customer numbers, especially students and people who wish to connect with the Cambrian coast. I think its been fairly well proved that Wrexham and Shrewsbury dont have enough to sustain a significant service seeing as a coach was knocked off and some services which havent been re-instated.

 

[merlodlliw]

1. I dont think they did, but there were certainly Euston Abers in days gone by. The terminus isnt important though really.
2. Aber is a bigger catch in terms of customer numbers, especially students and people who wish to connect with the Cambrian coast. I think its been fairly well proved that Wrexham and Shrewsbury dont have enough to sustain a significant service seeing as a coach was knocked off and some services which havent been re-instated.[/QUOTE]

1.In fact they used to use Paddington then Euston, the last Euston/Aber service was withdrawn due to lack of passengers using the service.

2,Aber is nothing of the size of Wrexham area,which as its own University
and Yale the largest college in North Wales, Aber in no way is a bigger catch
in passenger numbers the population of Mid Wales & Aber is just not there.

 

[tbtc]

1. When did Aber trains ever go to Marylebone?

1. I said Aberyswyth to London... (didn't specify a terminus)

2.Explain bigger draw?

2. Students travel a long way to get to Aberyswyth, as do tourists. Wrexham may be a bigger place, but there's not the same demand for people to go there. Size of place isn't necessarily linked to how popular a rail destination it is, after all

 

[merlodlliw]

1. I said Aberyswyth to London... (didn't specify a terminus)



2. Students travel a long way to get to Aberyswyth, as do tourists. Wrexham may be a bigger place, but there's not the same demand for people to go there. Size of place isn't necessarily linked to how popular a rail destination it is, after all

Hang on Wrexham also has students that travel from around the world,when you say not the same demand for people to go there,that is lost to me. also the holiday season in Aber is ended in sept until
May, unlike all year round holiday resorts we have up here,Llangollen for example.

 

[thefab444]

tbtc, I wouldn't bother if I were you - Merlod is impossible to beat on any argument when it comes to Andy Hamilton/WSMR/Wrexham area.

It'll be no major loss if WSMR do give up, sure it'll be a bit disappointing, and a complete farce for those in Andy Hamilton's employ, but not the end of the world.

 

[tbtc]

Hang on Wrexham also has students that travel from around the world,when you say not the same demand for people to go there,that is lost to me. also the holiday season in Aber is ended in sept until
May, unlike all year round holiday resorts we have up here,Llangollen for example.

...but that's the beauty of Aberystwyth, dear chap. During the summer, you have all the tourism, during the winter months there's the thousands of students. WMSR should have invested in ERTMS technology in the first place, and then they'd not be worrying about cutting services/ 168s etc

 

[87015]

Doubt they'd have been allowed many paths on the Cambrian though. There is also a distinct lack of potential stock for Aber's - I don't really think they'd have been let loose with refurbished tractors...

 

[Oliver]

Nothing new about an Aberyswyth to London service either...

Truth is that WMSR should have gone for an Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury - London service in the first place - it's a much bigger "draw".

However, if they are so scared about six trains per week, things must be looking bad...

Neither Aberystwyth or Wrexham is much of a draw. The money is to be made between Shrewsbury and London. Aberystwyth is a smaller town than Wrexham and it's at the end of an 82 mile single track branch with limited capacity for more trains.

 

[merlodlliw]

...but that's the beauty of Aberystwyth, dear chap. During the summer, you have all the tourism, during the winter months there's the thousands of students. WMSR should have invested in ERTMS technology in the first place, and then they'd not be worrying about cutting services/ 168s etc

What percentage of students travel by rail to Aber, if you come from the
South, the car is three hours quicker, having spent time in Aber, the majority use the car, either their own or parents pick up & drop off,
unless ATW give away free tickets, it will stay that way,

 

[The Planner]

Where do mean by the "South" ?? Wales or England ?? You are assuming that students dont come to Aber Uni from all of the UK.
The roads to Aber are awful and if you were coming from Shrewsbury direction Id be suprised if a car could beat the train.

 

[paul1609]

I reckon you'd be surprised then except- during the Summer school holidays I reckon the journey by car is around 20 mins faster and Im a fairly tame driver. Realistically though the rail schedule of nearly 2 hours for around 75 miles isnt that exciting.

 

[Drsatan]

What Arriva should concentrate on doing for now is lengthening the Birmingham-Aberystwyth services from two to four or even six cars. Though I've never travelled on the Cambrian line I read in RAIL that occasionally services leaving Aberystwyth are so full passengers can't physically squeeze on. Having trains which people have to stand for 2+ hours (or can't get on at all) will give the press a field day and encourage the locals to use their cars instead.