EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[bnm]

Totally agree re. foreign workers. Eastern Europeans have a stronger work ethic than us brits, why? Because they come from an environment where if you don’t work you get nothing in terms of welfare payments.

Every EU country has a welfare system, covering unemployment, disability and pensions. Nearly all provide some form of child benefit, and many provide housing costs for low incomes.

Eligibilty, amounts paid, and proportion of spending on welfare as a percentage of GDP vary wildly.

Stating that you get nothing if you don't work in certain EU countries is wholly inaccurate.

Incidentally, as a percentage of GDP, the UK spends the least on unemployment benefits in the EU.

https://bit.ly/2CzfVlw (.pdf "Unemployment Benefits in EU Member States")

 

[greyman42]

Incidentally, as a percentage of GDP, the UK spends the least on unemployment benefits in the EU.

Is that because we have a low level if unemployment?

 

[fowler9]

Is that because we have a low level if unemployment?

I doubt it.

 

[Groningen]

The Sunday Times:

The British police is working on a plan to limit social unrest. Military to uphold the law. All police on standby end March 2018 if there is a hard brexit. Reason could be lack of medicine or/and higher prices for consumergoods.

Volkskrant (dutch newspaper):

The Brexit part of the Tories have called in the help of Maco Customs Service, Roermond, the Netherlands to find a solution of the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The thought is that in advance to someone (bordercontrol) a kind of list is given.

 

[nidave]

No problem with a vote on the final deal.

A vote that says we leave WITH the deal or we leave WITHOUT the deal.

The issue of leaving has already has already been voted on and decided.

So no one is ever allowed to change their mind or opinion on anything ever then...

Also
Hedge funds wager £3bn on the pound plunging this year amid no deal Brexit fears in the City
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...-3bn-pound-plunging-year-amid-no-deal-brexit/

 

[pt_mad]

I have a feeling a second vote goodness forbid would result in a leave vote again anyway. Many remain voters have come to accept the majority opinion now anyway.

The bulk of leave voters I know were very strong anti EU to the point that they were happy with WTO rules to get sovereignty back. None I know say they have changed their minds. They fear leave in name only via the Checkers deal, but would rather have a Canada plus plus or a WTO arrangement.

 

[furnessvale]

So no one is ever allowed to change their mind or opinion on anything ever then...

Of course we can have another vote...........in say......40 years time.

Even general elections only come along every five years or so.

 

[VauxhallandI]

So no one is ever allowed to change their mind or opinion on anything ever then...

Also
Hedge funds wager £3bn on the pound plunging this year amid no deal Brexit fears in the City
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...-3bn-pound-plunging-year-amid-no-deal-brexit/

Yes it's strange isn't it. It's such a good idea and it's been so easy and all the promises have been met yet there is a reluctance to let people have the option to say no........

 

[pt_mad]

We aren't likely to be able to have any referendum before March now anyway. We'd have to have it arranged now for November wouldn't we? And we never seem to have any elections in December or January.

 

[Tim R-T-C]

So, by today the Brexit division of the Tories was supposed to have published their alternative to Chequers, with details of how they would deal with the last 9 months of negotiations.

And we have gotten nothing.

Well over a year into proceedings and Boris and Mogg and the most ardent Brexiteers have done nothing but criticise the Government's handling of affairs, without coming up with their own viable alternative.

Ditto Jeremy in the opposition.

The only people who actually have a plan are those saying let's scrap the whole thing....

 

[nidave]

No one in Wistminster cares about N. Ireland, there is a supprise - Even hard line Brexiters like Rees-Mogg is willing to allow EU officals to do customs checks in UK ports - I thought this was all about taking back control of things

I wonder if Rees-Mogg is looking at how he can amass more money from the situation.

"While Theresa May opposes EU checks in British ports, recent reports suggest there is a loosening of opposition among Brexiters. The Brexit-supporting European Research Group, chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg, will reportedly support the proposal in a Brexit blueprint due to be published this week, believing it will break “the logjam” and show willingness to Brussels.

One source said: “The ERG don’t care enough about Northern Ireland. But they are now very worried about a ‘no deal’ and time running out. They don’t want Ireland scuppering everything.” (My Bold)

This gives me the idea that even Jacob Rees-Mogg thinks a no deal brexit is going to be a total cluster.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-consider-eu-staff-british-ports-irish-border

 

[Howardh]

This gives me the idea that even Jacob Rees-Mogg thinks a no deal brexit is going to be a total cluster.

Don't know the ins and outs of this; seems a fast-moving day - but I read (via twitter, so take that with a pinch of pepper) that Mogg has turned up at a TV studio (5 I believe) to explain his proposals. He left his paper behind on the desk and the interviewer tries to have a look and Mogg immediately snatched it away, and since then he has gone elsewhere to "launch" his plans and then announced he'd changed his mind.
Jacob Rees Eggonhisface?

Oh, latest news, apparantly he's launched them and seems to think there's little difference between WTO rules and trade deals. Oh, shame then that countries spend years trying to get trade deals with each other when they are little better off....

You couldn't make this stuff up.

 

[EM2]

Don't know the ins and outs of this; seems a fast-moving day - but I read (via twitter, so take that with a pinch of pepper) that Mogg has turned up at a TV studio (5 I believe) to explain his proposals. He left his paper behind on the desk and the interviewer tries to have a look and Mogg immediately snatched it away, and since then he has gone elsewhere to "launch" his plans and then announced he'd changed his mind.
Jacob Rees Eggonhisface?

I watched Jeremy Vine on C5 this morning. JR-M did have a pamphlet but quite clearly said that the plan would be unveiled and discussed tomorrow.

 

[Howardh]

I watched Jeremy Vine on C5 this morning. JR-M did have a pamphlet but quite clearly said that the plan would be unveiled and discussed tomorrow.

Yes, I've just added to my post above, there is a press conference today and apparently it's just finished. No mention of Ireland to my knowledge. Been trying to follow it on the Guardian's live feed.

 

[nidave]

Conservative Eurosceptics have abandoned their plan to publish an alternative Chequers blueprint.

"Tory members of the European Research Group had been due to put their names to a single document setting out their own proposals for a limited Brexit deal with the European Union.

The plan was shelved amid divisions over strategy and fears among some MPs that it would provide ammunition for Downing Street and pro-European groups to attack their proposals."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eurosceptics-shelve-their-rival-brexit-blueprint-5rxnblpql

It seems the alternitive plan is to crash out of the EU and go with WTO rules.

 

[pt_mad]

I'm not being funny, but did anyone vote to leave the EU based on hope they'd want to negotiate some kind of generous deal with us? Would have thought voting Brexit would mean wanting to be as far out of their controls as possible. All the talk during the campaigning was of Cameron supposedly being prepared to hand in article 50 the day after a potential leave vote and being left with WTO rules.

When you leave an organisation you don't expect to have to barter and beg to them 'please let us leave or we won't leave'. You leave. They were never going to want is to leave and when did we ever expect they'd cooperate?

 

[nidave]

So what are the benefits from leaving the EU and moving to WTO rules considering very few (if any) countruies trade under WTO rules?

 

[WelshBluebird]

I'm not being funny, but did anyone vote to leave the EU based on hope they'd want to negotiate some kind of generous deal with us? Would have thought voting Brexit would mean wanting to be as far out of their controls as possible. All the talk during the campaigning was of Cameron supposedly being prepared to hand in article 50 the day after a potential leave vote and being left with WTO rules.

When you leave an organisation you don't expect to have to barter and beg to them 'please let us leave or we won't leave'. You leave. They were never going to want is to leave and when did we ever expect they'd cooperate?

So I just imagined the leave supporters trying to claim we could negotiate a favourable deal then?
That we could potentially follow other examples such as Norway or Switzerland in their relationship with the EU?
I imagined that several prominent leavers said publicly that we could stay in the Single market and customs union?

 

[bramling]

I'm not being funny, but did anyone vote to leave the EU based on hope they'd want to negotiate some kind of generous deal with us? Would have thought voting Brexit would mean wanting to be as far out of their controls as possible. All the talk during the campaigning was of Cameron supposedly being prepared to hand in article 50 the day after a potential leave vote and being left with WTO rules.

When you leave an organisation you don't expect to have to barter and beg to them 'please let us leave or we won't leave'. You leave. They were never going to want is to leave and when did we ever expect they'd cooperate?

This is largely my view. I’ve always been comfortable with leaving with no deal if it gets us out. May and co have had plenty of time to find something better and thus far haven’t. Just leave next March, and don’t pay the EU a penny.

 

[pt_mad]

So I just imagined the leave supporters trying to claim we could negotiate a favourable deal then?
That we could potentially follow other examples such as Norway or Switzerland in their relationship with the EU?
I imagined that several prominent leavers said publicly that we could stay in the Single market and customs union?

Well I don't remember the Government and the leaflets which came through my door saying anything about getting a deal. They all told us it'd be a huge mistake if we left with severe consequences. The chancellor claimed there would almost certainly be an immediate recession. And we voted for it anyway. Because that's how much the majority want it I'm afraid.

Even hard remainders such as Caroline Flint of labour is now behind leaving and isn't backing a second referendum, which I thought I'd never see. As seen on Politics Live at lunchtime.

I think hard remainders would be quite disappointed if there was a second vote as I feel many remainders have now accepted the leave vote and want Brexit sorted asap.

This situation isnt going to go away if a second referendum was forced, and by some fluke it came back remain. We'd need best of three then. There may be unrest, due to trying to fiddle our democracy and deny the result of the first vote. Many of the communities who voted first time around hadnt voted on anything for years. I also feel some hard remainers still wouldn't accept a leave vote even if we voted again and it came back leave for a second time.

When people call it 'the divorce bill', that seems about right. If you wanted to leave your husband or wife, but you thought they might not give you a good deal, if you didn't love them anymore you'd want to leave anyway. That's about the state of it. People leave their partners and not even their kids stop them, so I don't think the EU not wanting to strike a deal with us is going to change the minds of those who don't like this particular marriage.
If you want to leave the club because the majority no longer like it, you shouldn't be frightened of leaving because the club is going to want to prevent you from leaving. That was always inevitable and quite obvious. And don't we teach our children not to give in to bullies?

 

[bnm]

So what are the benefits from leaving the EU and moving to WTO rules considering very few (if any) countruies trade under WTO rules?

Blue passports?

 

[pt_mad]

So what are the benefits from leaving the EU and moving to WTO rules considering very few (if any) countruies trade under WTO rules?

That we'd be out of the EU .Like our democracy voted for...

 

[Howardh]

So what are the benefits from leaving the EU and moving to WTO rules considering very few (if any) countruies trade under WTO rules?

Mauritania. The only one, single country operating only under WTO rules. Think even North Korea has trade links with China.

So the net effect of leaving without a deal and being under WTO rules is we'd turn into Mauritania. Do they grow bananas? Straight ones or bendy?? Oh, the other good news is the pound would tank meaning those "betting" on it tanking will be £m's of quids in, and it would help our export industry.

Except we won't have anyone to export too tariff-free as we wouldn't have any free trade deals. Hey ho, off to the WTO we go (cap in hand). Luckily Parliament will have other ideas - I hope (wake up, Labour...WAKE UP)

 

[eotw]

I'm not being funny, but did anyone vote to leave the EU based on hope they'd want to negotiate some kind of generous deal with us? Would have thought voting Brexit would mean wanting to be as far out of their controls as possible. All the talk during the campaigning was of Cameron supposedly being prepared to hand in article 50 the day after a potential leave vote and being left with WTO rules.

When you leave an organisation you don't expect to have to barter and beg to them 'please let us leave or we won't leave'. You leave. They were never going to want is to leave and when did we ever expect they'd cooperate?

It is not the EU who are stopping us leaving. It is the warring Tory party. The EU will happily give us a Canada deal as long as we honour the Good Friday Agreement and put no barriers on the NI border.

Problem is Tories want incompatible things.

Soft Leavers and Remainers want too leave CU and Single Market and freedom from ECJ but have have seamless trade with EU like we were in the CU and Single Market with no oversight from ECJ.

Hard Leavers want a Canada style deal and too put up an electronic border (not invented yet) with RoI.

Brexit has always been about an internal war in the Tory party.

 

[pt_mad]

If WTO is so bad, why did the government put the referendum in their 2015 manifesto to begin with?

 

[Howardh]

Of WTO is so bad, why did the government put the referendum in their 2015 manifesto to begin with?

To avoid UKIP. They thought having the referendum, in which they expected it to be rejected, would be preferable to having to form a coalition with them.

Tory Party Before Country, always has been, always will be - and that applies at all the times I have voted for them. Never again - I'd rather not vote than give those slimy money-grabbing toerags power again.

This is worth a read as well -
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2018/09...ho-would-make-millions-from-a-no-deal-brexit/

Home secretary, Sajid Javid refused to rule out “civil disorder leading to widespread unrest” following a no-deal Brexit. But there’s another possible outcome too. Because it’s also emerged that rich hedge fund bosses could make billions if we leave the EU with no deal. And one person who stands make a vast profit is a key ally of arch-Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg.

If so, it's no wonder they are begging and preying for a no-deal Brexit. Hope people enjoyed voting for their financial rewards while we console ourselves with "adequate supplies of food".

 

[bramling]

To avoid UKIP. They thought having the referendum, in which they expected it to be rejected, would be preferable to having to form a coalition with them.

Tory Party Before Country, always has been, always will be - and that applies at all the times I have voted for them. Never again - I'd rather not vote than give those slimy money-grabbing toerags power again.

This is worth a read as well -
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2018/09...ho-would-make-millions-from-a-no-deal-brexit/

If so, it's no wonder they are begging and preying for a no-deal Brexit. Hope people enjoyed voting for their financial rewards while we console ourselves with "adequate supplies of food".

It’s all very well saying it was to avoid UKIP. Yes that may be true, but the reason why UKIP might have needed to be avoided was because people were voting for them, and in quite large numbers! Where it was silly was that Cameron clearly believed he could cajole the country into voting remain, which seems to have been a misjudgement of public mood. Had the two main parties been more reflective of this mood over the last two to three decades then we possibly wouldn’t be where we are now.

 

[Howardh]

It’s all very well saying it was to avoid UKIP. Yes that may be true, but the reason why UKIP might have needed to be avoided was because people were voting for them, and in quite large numbers! Where it was silly was that Cameron clearly believed he could cajole the country into voting remain, which seems to have been a misjudgement of public mood. Had the two main parties been more reflective of this mood over the last two to three decades then we possibly wouldn’t be where we are now.

Possibly. However the difference between UKIP and the Tories was UKIP had few seats, if any (?) and in 2015 may well only have reached single figures*, so the threat was splitting the Tory vote and letting Labour/SNP in who were treated as "Project Fear" by the right wing media, so by giving UKIP the referendum avoided that.
Could anyone argue against that it was the "threat" of the SNP that - ironically - brought the referendum?
As for the public mood, I blame Cameron for not shouting loudly enough about the concessions he got (or the media for not reporting them) which may have pacified the waverers. As for our relations with the EU, aren't we the country with the most opt-outs, vetos etc? If we are, witht he £b's we pay in so we should be.
Anyhow, we are where we are and it's nice to know a few at the top will be well-off after Brexit at our expense. Just don't tell the Jaguar/Land Rover staff.
When all settles down, I'm thoroughly looking forward to reading the book. If i can afford it.

*"few" seats mainly/wholly due to our electoral system (??)

 

[pt_mad]

Where it was silly was that Cameron clearly believed he could cajole the country into voting remain, which seems to have been a misjudgement of public mood. Had the two main parties been more reflective of this mood over the last two to three decades then we possibly wouldn’t be where we are now.

Not forgetting the supposed 'renegotiation' where he promised he'd negotiate a relationship worth staying in for.

 

[nidave]

That we'd be out of the EU .Like our democracy voted for...

And what benefit to me does that bring? Name 3 things please.

I get the impression the UK goverment are sure we will end up with no deal from the EU as we are going behind the EU's back now... how trustworthy does that make the UK in any future talks.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-closest-ally-after-brexit-may-tells-cabinet