Economic Case for the Far North Line

[AndrewE]

The vast majority of cruise passengers are generally doing prebooked shore excursions to places like Urquhart Castle, Culloden, Eilean Donan Castle* and Fort William. They require a very high degree of reliability in being able to return folk to the ship at the right time. Neither of these characteristics make the railway a particularly suitable medium for transporting cruise passengers...

...on top of which cruise ships disgorge an enormous number of people quite infrequently and very erratically. There are already problems in S Queensferry due to ships anchoring in the Firth and sending passengers ashore in tenders: All parking is banned in the town to accommodate the coaches needed and the local area gets a complete vacuum in visitors for the whole day as those who land are whisked off into Edinburgh.
In a railway context there is almost no spare rolling stock anyway, and on top of that in the more remote parts of the network we have reduced the infrastructure to the point where we probably couldn't run more trains anyway. I suppose that if DRS were running "their" freight on a line they could juggle the days run so that a tourist train could use the same path, but the timings would probably not fit.

 

[philthetube]

All above comments true, however if it were possible to hire a Steam loco and rake to take people to Edinburgh the Cruise companies wold probably be very interested

 

[Esker-pades]

All above comments true, however if it were possible to hire a Steam loco and rake to take people to Edinburgh the Cruise companies wold probably be very interested

As long as it doesn't get in the way of the express Highland Main Line services, that could work. The journey times would be too much for a day trip though.

 

[BRX]

All above comments true, however if it were possible to hire a Steam loco and rake to take people to Edinburgh the Cruise companies wold probably be very interested

That's more the sort of thing I was thinking of. To Kyle of Lochalsh would be another option, maybe tied in with Eilean Donan and so on.

I hadn't appreciated until recently how frequently the cruise ships are coming in now. And they are bringing literally thousands of passengers.

http://www.visitinvergordon.com/schedule.html

 

[6Gman]

That's more the sort of thing I was thinking of. To Kyle of Lochalsh would be another option, maybe tied in with Eilean Donan and so on.

I hadn't appreciated until recently how frequently the cruise ships are coming in now. And they are bringing literally thousands of passengers.

http://www.visitinvergordon.com/schedule.html

That's a very impressive list, but really don't see how the railway could make it work. Timetable; Stock; Traincrew. All a nightmare.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

That's a very impressive list, but really don't see how the railway could make it work. Timetable; Stock; Traincrew. All a nightmare.

Let alone costs , or dare I say it , charges to the cruise passengers. Not exactly a regular flow is it which can be resourced. (though the localised economic benefits are no doubt welcome..)

 

[BRX]

The Fort William/Mallaig steam train seems to work, and I assume runs a profit?

I think it's previously been suggested that something similar could be tried Kyle/Inverness.

If something like that were established, then cruise ship passengers are a potential and significant market that could feed into it.

I know it wouldn't be straightforward. But to say that working out issues relating to timetables, stock and traincrew are a 'nightmare' for the railway seems a bit no-can-do. Do the cruise ships give up and say they'll not bother coming to Scotland because water, weather and tides are a nightmare and they can't see how they can make this idea of floating 4000 people across the sea work?

 

[route:oxford]

The Fort William/Mallaig steam train seems to work, and I assume runs a profit?

Whilst the UK's longest running Open Access Service is definitely popular, and has run in various forms since the 1980s, for the last 18 years it has enjoyed the worldwide publicity from the Harry Potter franchise.

You're also missing the economics of the holidaymaker.

Fort Bill/Maillaig benefits from being a 2h20m drive from Glasgow, with the rail journey taking just 1h20m each way.
Inverness/Kyle is more than 3 hours from Glasgow, with the rail journey taking around 2h40m each way. That's at least an 11 hour commitment for people who might only have 2-4 days to "do Scotland".

The first wins hand down for the volume tourist, especially those with children.

 

[BRX]

Whilst the UK's longest running Open Access Service is definitely popular, and has run in various forms since the 1980s, for the last 18 years it has enjoyed the worldwide publicity from the Harry Potter franchise.

You're also missing the economics of the holidaymaker.

Fort Bill/Maillaig benefits from being a 2h20m drive from Glasgow, with the rail journey taking just 1h20m each way.
Inverness/Kyle is more than 3 hours from Glasgow, with the rail journey taking around 2h40m each way. That's at least an 11 hour commitment for people who might only have 2-4 days to "do Scotland".

The first wins hand down for the volume tourist, especially those with children.

Inverness is a much bigger centre than Fort William and is packed with tourists in the summer who are booking onto day trips to Loch Ness and so on.

Kyle is a completely feasible day trip for anyone staying in the Inverness area, and can also be made into a loop with road transport in one direction that would take in Eilean Donan and Loch Ness.

Really Inverness is better connected to the central belt than Fort William; you'll not get to Fort William much more quickly if you're coming from Edinburgh. It's also got an airport of course.

There will be some people doing certain types of holiday where doing the Jacobite will fit in well, yes. There will be others for whom a day trip from Inverness will work well, and some who might want to factor in either or both as part of a longer trip.

I don't think it's clear that Fort William wins hands down. I don't think it's at all crazy to speculate that there's an untapped market for more tourist targetted trains running from Inverness north and west. Just as the Jacobite has been running for some time, trains to Kyle ran for many years with observation cars.

 

[Esker-pades]

There'll need to be a Lentran Loop before regular steam services are a thing.

 

[haggishunter]

Fort Bill/Maillaig benefits from being a 2h20m drive from Glasgow, with the rail journey taking just 1h20m each way.
Inverness/Kyle is more than 3 hours from Glasgow, with the rail journey taking around 2h40m each way.

The first wins hand down for the volume tourist, especially those with children.

You can regularly add an hour or more to that 2hr 20m drive from Glasgow in the summer, particularly for those unfamiliar with road whereas Glasgow to Inverness though longer is a more predictable drive in terms of journey time and suffers less seasonal variation, plus is an easier drive in many ways.

There would also be greater potential to travel to/from Inverness by train for a trip on the Kyle line with much more frequent service than on the WHL. While a large number of people travel to Fort William specifically for a trip on the Jacobite, there would be a wider visitor market to tap into in the inner Moray Firth area and the growth of the cruise market into the Moray Firth could be the core business to make such an offering viable.

It would have wider economic benefits if such a service did start at Invergorden, though it would probably attract more passengers overall starting from Inverness, but that would be a major constraint on when it could run unless the Lentran loop is built. Also visitors can fly into and/or out of Inverness, something that is not an option in Fort William.

I've wondered about the potential market for a circular tour via the WHL, ferry/coach from Mallaig to Kyle of Lochalsh, then train to Inverness and down the HML to Edinburgh and on to Glasgow with an overnight break (or 2). As others have said, the Jacobite isn't a posh train, it's an old train and the onboard catering is very limited (though that is a great benefit to Mallaig). Not everyone that would like to do these journey's for the scenery wants a steam train or heritage stock, nor something with the cost of staying onboard the train like the Royal Scotsman. A tour in a modern, comfortable and well equipped train designed to maximise the views, with knowledgable guides and good onboard food and drink with a distinct Scottish connection - there's nothing like that, is there a potential market for it?

...and oh for a larger loading gauge!

 

[Bald Rick]

You can regularly add an hour or more to that 2hr 20m drive from Glasgow in the summer, particularly for those unfamiliar with road whereas Glasgow to Inverness though longer is a more predictable drive in terms of journey time and suffers less seasonal variation, plus is an easier drive in many ways.

Now I can’t claim to be an expert, but I have driven the A82 from Glasgow to Ft Bill perhaps 15 times, always in summer, mostly at weekends, in all weather conditions, in a variety of cars, and more often than not with roadworks somewhere. It’s never taken more than 2 hours. Perhaps I have been lucky.

 

[Highlandspring]

I've wondered about the potential market for a circular tour via the WHL, ferry/coach from Mallaig to Kyle of Lochalsh, then train to Inverness and down the HML to Edinburgh and on to Glasgow with an overnight break (or 2).

You know that already exists, aye?

https://www.scotrail.co.uk/tickets/combined-tickets-travel-passes/scottish-grand-tour

 

[haggishunter]

You know that already exists, aye?

https://www.scotrail.co.uk/tickets/combined-tickets-travel-passes/scottish-grand-tour

Yes aware of that, but it's not an organised / packaged tour or offer any extras in that it is the standard service trains. That said I think that pass could be pushed more, and there seems to have gradually been less pushing of the 'Great Scenic Railways' stuff on the homepage rather than building it up. Is that intentional in terms of planning to push it more once more of the rolling stock is refurbished?

 

[haggishunter]

Now I can’t claim to be an expert, but I have driven the A82 from Glasgow to Ft Bill perhaps 15 times, always in summer, mostly at weekends, in all weather conditions, in a variety of cars, and more often than not with roadworks somewhere. It’s never taken more than 2 hours. Perhaps I have been lucky.

Given it's a 110miles, and the number of villages and towns passed through with 30 and 40mph limits, from personal experience and that of people who drive it a lot more frequently than I do less than 2hrs 20mins is almost unachievable and over 3hrs 30 isn't unknown (unless its late on and you've got the boot down over Rannoch Moor ). It does however seem to be worse during weekdays than at weekends, assume that might well be due to less HGVs on the go and perhaps less tour coaches too?

 

[Bald Rick]

Given it's a 110miles, and the number of villages and towns passed through with 30 and 40mph limits, from personal experience and that of people who drive it a lot more frequently than I do less than 2hrs 20mins is almost unachievable and over 3hrs 30 isn't unknown (unless its late on and you've got the boot down over Rannoch Moor ). It does however seem to be worse during weekdays than at weekends, assume that might well be due to less HGVs on the go and perhaps less tour coaches too?

To be fair, I’m counting from Glasgow airport, which is under 100 miles. There a sticky bit along Loch Lomond, and again around Onich and Corran, but the rest ....

 

[InOban]

You may be able to drive it in two hours. But not if you obey the speed limits.

 

[Journeyman]

Whilst the UK's longest running Open Access Service is definitely popular, and has run in various forms since the 1980s, for the last 18 years it has enjoyed the worldwide publicity from the Harry Potter franchise.

You're also missing the economics of the holidaymaker.

Fort Bill/Maillaig benefits from being a 2h20m drive from Glasgow, with the rail journey taking just 1h20m each way.
Inverness/Kyle is more than 3 hours from Glasgow, with the rail journey taking around 2h40m each way. That's at least an 11 hour commitment for people who might only have 2-4 days to "do Scotland".

The first wins hand down for the volume tourist, especially those with children.

The Jacobite is a success for a number of reasons - direct Sleeper connection, long-running and well-known, the Harry Potter connection, the scenery, the regular services, the ease of access to the rest of Scotland, but also because it's unique.

I really don't think Scotland could manage to sustain two regular steam services - the second one would really struggle to get off the ground, and would abstract revenue from the Jacobite, ultimately damaging both. I think you're over-estimating the size of the market for steam services.

 

[Altnabreac]

The Jacobite is a success for a number of reasons - direct Sleeper connection, long-running and well-known, the Harry Potter connection, the scenery, the regular services, the ease of access to the rest of Scotland, but also because it's unique.

I really don't think Scotland could manage to sustain two regular steam services - the second one would really struggle to get off the ground, and would abstract revenue from the Jacobite, ultimately damaging both. I think you're over-estimating the size of the market for steam services.

I'd worry that a steam service from Inverness to Kyle of Lochalsh would abstract from the Scotrail service as well. There is good business from coach parties on this section that could be lost to a steam service but ultimately could undermine both.

 

[Journeyman]

I'd worry that a steam service from Inverness to Kyle of Lochalsh would abstract from the Scotrail service as well. There is good business from coach parties on this section that could be lost to a steam service but ultimately could undermine both.

That's another good point. I think most people who use the Jacobite from Fort William to Mallaig otherwise wouldn't make the journey at all, so ScotRail are probably not losing out, but if you took coach parties off Kyle services the losses could be catastrophic.

 

[haggishunter]

I really don't think Scotland could manage to sustain two regular steam services - the second one would really struggle to get off the ground, and would abstract revenue from the Jacobite, ultimately damaging both. I think you're over-estimating the size of the market for steam services.

Presumably the Jacobite was viable as one train a day and that it is now twice daily and regularly completely fully booked is an indication that there is very significant demand. I'd think given there isn't a direct rail connection between Fort William and Inverness, you'd have two different markets to tap into and the thing that probably ought to worry about abstraction of demand from Kyle or Far North Line steam would be the Strathspey Railway.

That said perhaps a non-steam equivalent, one with more of an onboard service, more modern rolling stock with the capacity to have a live commentary to explain / alert passengers to significant points of interest would have merit. It's not something that features at all on the Jacobite and not everyone wants to travel on old train!

There was of course the much trumpeted ScotRail steam services, which appear to have died a death and it looks as if that was frankly a bit of a 'look squirrel' type temporary distraction to take attention away from the fact that after the hype from the tender document, that Abellio's scenic train offering was very weak to non existent?

 

[6Gman]

The Fort William/Mallaig steam train seems to work, and I assume runs a profit?

I think it's previously been suggested that something similar could be tried Kyle/Inverness.

If something like that were established, then cruise ship passengers are a potential and significant market that could feed into it.

I know it wouldn't be straightforward. But to say that working out issues relating to timetables, stock and traincrew are a 'nightmare' for the railway seems a bit no-can-do. Do the cruise ships give up and say they'll not bother coming to Scotland because water, weather and tides are a nightmare and they can't see how they can make this idea of floating 4000 people across the sea work?

It could, of course, be "no-can-do" because it literally can't be done!

The Kyle run would be 80 miles; Mallaig is 40 miles. The cruise ships come in to Invergordon, which isn't en route. So are we bussing them to/from Dingwall/ Inverness? And cruise operators do have to take account of tides, access to ports etc.

The biggest problem with the cruise market is its variability. This week it's a 2,800 passenger vessel; next week no ship; following week 700. Fitting that into the modern railway not impossible, but very, very difficult.

 

[BRX]

cruise operators do have to take account of tides, access to ports etc.

Well, yes, that was my point, they don't run away saying its all too difficult.

The biggest problem with the cruise market is its variability. This week it's a 2,800 passenger vessel; next week no ship; following week 700. Fitting that into the modern railway not impossible, but very, very difficult.

I already posted the schedule for Invergordon; it is now pretty busy right through the summer. The week ending today, 8 ships, between them carrying 14,000 passengers.

Whether it's a dedicated train that runs from Invergordon on certain days only, whether it's part of a bigger picture involving a regular service between Inverness and Kyle where cruise ship passengers book out a carriage or two on certain days, whether they are bussed to nearby Dingwall or taken on a connecting service, whether it's steam trains or modern trains with panoramic carriages, whether it's a simple transport or something posher involving meals on board, whether it can work in such a way that trains also convey local traffic in a separate section, or some mix of any of this, I don't know; obviously you'd have to go into the details to find out what would and wouldn't work commercially and logistically but I'm not buying it that it's impossible to make a substantially better effort than is made at present to use the Kyle and FN lines for tourism purposes. The example I always bring up in these discussions is Switzerland but there are other countries who make a whole lot more out of their scenic lines than we do. I find it a bit pathetic, and it does seem to be driven by an attitude that it's all just too much bother to do anything beyond providing a minimum basic service.

I brought up the example of Invergordon because it's just one example of a market that surely could be exploited better. I didn't even realise myself until this summer how many ships were coming in now. Yes, the numbers aren't a nice even flow but they are so large that they surely are not to be sniffed at, especially as they embark within walking distance of a train station.

 

[Highlandspring]

Of course if you feel very strongly about it then contact Transport Scotland and make the case for something to be included in the next Franchise Specification. In the current climate, given they have no money, Abellio are not going to even consider anything like that and as this is simply an internet forum for railway enthusiasts then at the moment you’re just shouting into the wind.

 

[AndrewE]

Well, yes, that was my point, they don't run away saying its all too difficult.

Ships either land passengers at a port that has a landing stage of some sort that can cope with the tidal range, or they send people ashore on tenders that can come alongside in whatever depth of water is available

The example I always bring up in these discussions is Switzerland but there are other countries who make a whole lot more out of their scenic lines than we do. I find it a bit pathetic, and it does seem to be driven by an attitude that it's all just too much bother to do anything beyond providing a minimum basic service.

How many ships arrive in Switzerland and disgorge 5000 passengers? They have a relatively steady flow of planes and river steamers all of which can feed people in to their well resourced network. I'm picturing Geneva airport, or river cruise boats arriving at Basel here.

I brought up the example of Invergordon because it's just one example of a market that surely could be exploited better. I didn't even realise myself until this summer how many ships were coming in now. Yes, the numbers aren't a nice even flow but they are so large that they surely are not to be sniffed at, especially as they embark within walking distance of a train station.

Not to be sniffed at maybe, but it doesn't help you justify the economic case of the depreciation on the assets given their likely utilisation.

 

[47271]

Before we beat ourselves up too much, there's no comparison I'm afraid. The Swiss routes enjoy year round tourist demand and that's one of the reasons they can continually invest in dedicated stock. Out of season the Scottish scenic lines provide a lightly loaded public service. There are no cruise ships at Invergordon in January.

 

[BRX]

The Swiss routes enjoy year round tourist demand and that's one of the reasons they can continually invest in dedicated stock. Out of season the Scottish scenic lines provide a lightly loaded public service.

It's not the only reason though. They have a properly resourced and integrated public transport system, which is what I'd really like to see the Highlands have. Taking as full advantage of the tourist trade as possible is a means to that end. In which scenario, for example, does the Lentran Loop have the better chance of being built: one with or without moves towards further exploiting tourism potential which could demonstrate extra benefits to increased capacity?

 

[Highland37]

Fitting that into the modern railway not impossible, but very, very difficult.

Sorry but there is nothing modern about the Kyle line. It's 1980S at best and very little has changed since then .

 

[Esker-pades]

Sorry but there is nothing modern about the Kyle line. It's 1980S at best and very little has changed since then .

But paths on the Dingwall-Inverness section are very scarce, which is the problem.

 

[Highland37]

I agree. The whole system of the railway in the North is out of date, under invested in and at the very best, decades behind other countries.