The Telegraph: Possible First Group Break Up?

[coppercapped]

Correct me if I'm missing the point but surely the DfT must use at least part of that £1.6bn to fund network rail. No?

You are of course, correct!

Because it was quite long I wrote most of my post in another application and then pasted it into the thread. Unfortunately I missed a paragraph...! I'll edit the original post and add it, but I've just realised that I made an error in the value for the DfT's total budget. I'll go away and do my homework again and post the correction later.

Thanks for pointing my goof out!

 

[SideshowBob]

...I do hope the improved TPE would bring better services for weary Northerners if Arriva Northern continues to perform badly or their old trains drive customers to take TPE instead.

Well, the 16:15 Northern stopping service from York (YRK) to Huddersfield (HUD) via Leeds (LDS) today is a 3-carriage refurbed 158, and is busier than I've ever seen it leaving YRK. An on-the-day YRK - LDS Advance Single for this train is £5.50 without Railcard or £3.65 with Railcard discount applied. It was 1 late off YRK, on time off Church Fenton (CHF) and 2 late off Micklefield (MIK).

In contrast:

The 14:55 TPE train Middlesborough (MBR) to Manchester Airport (MIA) was 3 late off YRK and was started from Northallerton (NTR).

The 14:19 TPE from MIA to Newcastle (NCL) was 9 late off YRK.

The 14:52 TPE from NCL to Liverpool Lime St (LIV) was 5 late off YRK.

The 15:15 TPE from NCL to MIA was 1 late off YRK and started from Darlington (DAR).

TPE's deafening silence towards their passengers over the timetable issues won't be helping. Anecdotal indications are that their patronage between YRK and Scarborough (SCA) has reduced considerably because of how unreliable the service has been since the timetable change. Meanwhile, the cheap, perfectly comfortable and considerably more reliable service that Northern currently offer between YRK and LDS/LDS and Manchester Victoria (MCV) via Hebden Bridge (HBD) continues, and these services seem to be getting busier.

If that's a sign of the times, I can partly see why TPE is struggling. I'm surprised to hear that a combination of a lick of paint, new carpets and seat coverings and greatly reduced reliability would be enough to push it (just TPE) over the financial edge. That franchise must have been being run on a knife edge previously.

EDIT to add: Sadly, Northern's 17:18 LDS - MCV via HBD today is a 2-carriage 150 which was 6 late off LDS, badly overcrowded between LDS and Halifax (HFX) and full and standing between LDS and Todmorden (TOD), from where it departed 15 late and is currently expected into MCV at 19:00 (still 15 late). This will impact on anyone wanting to connect with the 18:55 MCV - Southport train plus anyone who would've been quick enough to get the 18:49 MCV - Wigan North Western.

All of this is, however, the exception rather than the rule, in my experience. And with prices starting at £7.00 (£4.60 with Railcard) for an on-the-day Advance Single from LDS - MCV, I think it's more than worth taking a chance on compared to TPE at the moment.

 

[js1000]

On the new TPE franchise, revenue is down and costs are up (all those refurbs and rebranding etc).
First have provisioned additional £100m cost over the length of the franchise.
A similar background to VTEC, but not as severe.

I just think TPE should be raking money in when you consider road links between the Northern cities are very poor.

Look at Manchester and Sheffield, two of the largest cities in Europe which are not connected by a motorway - only a couple of A roads which are often closed in winter due to the snow - the train is the easiest mode to get to between both cities. Equally, the Manchester to Edinburgh/Glasgow is always rammed to/from Piccadilly even when they are dualled with 8 carriages.

I'd go along with what others have said on here. My observations:
- Maybe fares are too competitively priced as some have said.
- I know they dual trains which then split on a number of routes. I've always believed this to be a less than ideal way of working as you have to have two train crew on board.
- Are the food/drink trolley really necessary? Yes bringing stuff to passengers always encouraging buys but lugging these things around station, waiting with them on concourses/platforms costs time and money. Always think Virgin have the right idea to have an on-board shop and it saves them money long-term.
- TPE have been screwed over by being too ambitious with regards to refurbs and modernisation. Northern have done it on a shoestring in comparison and sadly the DfT have let them off the hook.

It's not a franchise with no promise - it has a lot of potential. That's the unfortunate thing to hear about it, not struggling, but underperforming.

 

[Swanny200]

It has made me wonder how the bus companies managed to be able to run railways in the first place. Take Scotrail for instance, certain parts of Scotland found that they lost their bus services and had them cut back after they took over the railways. Why the Monopolies and Mergers commission couldn't forsee this type of thing happening is beyond me.

Either run the buses or run the trains, not both.

 

[158756]

I just think TPE should be raking money in when you consider road links between the Northern cities are very poor.

Look at Manchester and Sheffield, two of the largest cities in Europe which are not connected by a motorway - only a couple of A roads which are often closed in winter due to the snow - the train is the easiest mode to get to between both cities. Equally, the Manchester to Edinburgh/Glasgow is always rammed to/from Piccadilly even when they are dualled with 8 carriages.

I'd go along with what others have said on here. My observations:
- Maybe fares are too competitively priced as some have said.
- I know they dual trains which then split on a number of routes. I've always believed this to be a less than ideal way of working as you have to have two train crew on board.
- Are the food/drink trolley really necessary? Yes bringing stuff to passengers always encouraging buys but lugging these things around station, waiting with them on concourses/platforms costs time and money. Always think Virgin have the right idea to have an on-board shop and it saves them money long-term.
- TPE have been screwed over by being too ambitious with regards to refurbs and modernisation. Northern have done it on a shoestring in comparison and sadly the DfT have let them off the hook.

It's not a franchise with no promise - it has a lot of potential. That's the unfortunate thing to hear about it, not struggling, but underperforming.

The financial performance of the franchise for First is not the same as the profit/loss made by the train services in the TPE franchise. First will be losing money because the services are performing less well than predicted in their bid which the premiums were based on.

The refurbs, catering etc are requirements of the contract and would have been priced in. Likewise the DfT were obviously satisfied with the standard proposed for Northern.

 

[Robertj21a]

It has made me wonder how the bus companies managed to be able to run railways in the first place. Take Scotrail for instance, certain parts of Scotland found that they lost their bus services and had them cut back after they took over the railways. Why the Monopolies and Mergers commission couldn't forsee this type of thing happening is beyond me.

Either run the buses or run the trains, not both.

Can you clarify which parts of Scotland 'lost their bus services and had them cut back after they took over the railways' ?

 

[bengley]

Well, the 16:15 Northern stopping service from York (YRK) to Huddersfield (HUD) via Leeds (LDS) today is a 3-carriage refurbed 158, and is busier than I've ever seen it leaving YRK. An on-the-day YRK - LDS Advance Single for this train is £5.50 without Railcard or £3.65 with Railcard discount applied. It was 1 late off YRK, on time off Church Fenton (CHF) and 2 late off Micklefield (MIK).

In contrast:

The 14:55 TPE train Middlesborough (MBR) to Manchester Airport (MIA) was 3 late off YRK and was started from Northallerton (NTR).

The 14:19 TPE from MIA to Newcastle (NCL) was 9 late off YRK.

The 14:52 TPE from NCL to Liverpool Lime St (LIV) was 5 late off YRK.

The 15:15 TPE from NCL to MIA was 1 late off YRK and started from Darlington (DAR).

I was the driver of the 16:22 from York yesterday - this is the last train in your list above.

This train normally gets stuck behind a late running train from Hull after Leeds and doesn't get put past it until Stalybridge, making it 10+ mins late into Manchester Victoria.

Yesterday I phoned Huddersfield signaller on arrival at Leeds as again the ex-Hull train was 8 mins late and explained the situation - I asked for the ex-Hull to be looped at Mirfield for us (which it should be by default in this situation)

They did it and although this delayed that train by a few more minutes, I was on time into Manchester Vic and all the way through to the Airport.

 

[SideshowBob]

Out of curiosity, are you referring to the 15:15 (16:22 from YRK) yesterday (07/08)?

Yes.

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y72728/2018/08/07/advanced

 

[bengley]

Out of curiosity, are you referring to the 15:15 (16:22 from YRK) yesterday (07/08)?

Yes.

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y72728/2018/08/07/advanced

I've edited my above post

 

[SideshowBob]

I was the driver of the 16:22 from York yesterday - this is the last train in your list above.

This train normally gets stuck behind a late running train from Hull after Leeds and doesn't get put past it until Stalybridge, making it 10+ mins late into Manchester Victoria.

Yesterday I phoned Huddersfield signaller on arrival at Leeds as again the ex-Hull train was 8 mins late and explained the situation - I asked for the ex-Hull to be looped at Mirfield for us (which it should be by default in this situation)

They did it and although this delayed that train by a few more minutes, I was on time into Manchester Vic and all the way through to the Airport.

As part of a wider discussion about First Group's financial woes, I became intrigued about why TPE is losing money for First Group. I was making a point about how much cheaper and more reliable I have found Northern's YRK - LDS and Calder Valley services to have been than TPE's equivalent since the May 2018 timetable change. I was on Northern's 16:15 YRK - HUD via LDS train yesterday and was comparing how it was running with some of the TPE services around it. The train you were driving wasn't particularly late - indeed, it's encouraging to hear that you successfully managed to make arrangements to keep it running punctually. It was notable more for the fact that it was started from Darlington, so it clearly hadn't made it to Newcastle when travelling in the opposite direction earlier, resulting in a double cancellation for Newcastle and Durham passengers, so it was hardly reliable in that sense.

 

[bengley]

Aye, indeed it was cancelled Northbound - this seems to happen very regularly.

Just pointing out that I did my bit to at least make one train on time

 

[Journeyman]

Can you clarify which parts of Scotland 'lost their bus services and had them cut back after they took over the railways' ?

In fact, quite the opposite happened. When First took on the ScotRail franchise, both First Scotland East and First Glasgow had a number of restrictions placed on them in terms of what they could do with certain bus routes - there was a mileage floor created that they weren't allowed to drop below, and along various bus routes where rail alternatives were available, a number of "virtual stations" were created that the bus companies were legally obliged to serve, in a bid to stop them cutting bus services and forcing passengers onto more expensive trains.

They were actually very onerous and caused First to make significant losses on some bus routes. It took a year or two after Abellio took over for those obligations to be removed. As far as I know, it was unique in the deregulated world.

 

[SideshowBob]

Aye, indeed it was cancelled Northbound - this seems to happen very regularly.

Since the May 2018 timetable change, skip-stopping on TPE seems to have become a very significant problem. I've given up on TPE for my commutes between York and Manchester as they charge far too much for what was an average service that is now beyond hopeless, and switched to Northern instead. On their routes that I would use, OK - the trip per direction may take twice as long but it costs around half the price and it's usually very reliable in terms of both punctuality and not skip-stopping. I can spend the extra time on the train either working, relaxing or a combination of both. Not all the trains have been refurbished, but those that are have had a good job done on them. I can live without a catering trolley which I very rarely used anyway.

That's how I feel, and I doubt I'm the only one!

Just pointing out that I did my bit to at least make one train on time

Thank you - it's good to know that at least someone's trying (although I'm sure you're not the only one! ).

 

[Bletchleyite]

I tended to avoid TPE on the Barrows when there was a choice, as they tended to be more overcrowded and I had a dislike for the arrogant style of their operation[1], but I'm not sure that at least the latter hasn't changed a bit now.

[1] Typified by the rude, clipped autoannouncer. I notice that in contrast the new Northern system has chosen a warm, welcoming, happy-sounding Northern voice.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Ah yes, I forgot about the 185s, are these going to Northern?

They fit in the 18 "DMU to similar quality to a Turbostar" gap in the future fleet. Just to let you know, 22 are going off lease once all the new rolling stock arrives.

 

[nr758123]

Just pointing out that I did my bit to at least make one train on time

I’m sure you meant well, but because there’s so little resilience in the timetable it resulted in the Hull to Manchester train which you overtook being further delayed and then terminated short at Stalybridge.

That’s something that has happened more than a hundred times since the timetable change. Passengers at the stations between Stalybridge and Huddersfield are fed up of their hourly service being sacrificed in order to slightly reduce delays to passengers on the expresses. TPEs management demonstrate every day that they don't care in the slightest.

CORRECTION: This one not terminated short, my mistake, but other Hull-Manchester trains have been terminated short when there's been less of a delay on arrival at SYB than occurred on this occasion.

 

[Robertj21a]

In fact, quite the opposite happened. When First took on the ScotRail franchise, both First Scotland East and First Glasgow had a number of restrictions placed on them in terms of what they could do with certain bus routes - there was a mileage floor created that they weren't allowed to drop below, and along various bus routes where rail alternatives were available, a number of "virtual stations" were created that the bus companies were legally obliged to serve, in a bid to stop them cutting bus services and forcing passengers onto more expensive trains.

They were actually very onerous and caused First to make significant losses on some bus routes. It took a year or two after Abellio took over for those obligations to be removed. As far as I know, it was unique in the deregulated world.

Thank you for the clarification, it's not good when sweeping statements go unchallenged
I had been wondering where on earth the earlier poster had been thinking of !

 

[bengley]

I’m sure you meant well, but because there’s so little resilience in the timetable it resulted in the Hull to Manchester train which you overtook being further delayed and then terminated short at Stalybridge.

That’s something that has happened more than a hundred times since the timetable change. Passengers at the stations between Stalybridge and Huddersfield are fed up of their hourly service being sacrificed in order to slightly reduce delays to passengers on the expresses. TPEs management demonstrate every day that they don't care in the slightest

It didn't terminate at Stalybridge because I passed it coming into Piccadilly.

At the end of the day it's better to have one late train than two late trains because the express is stuck behind the stopper.

 

[nr758123]

It didn't terminate at Stalybridge because I passed it coming into Piccadilly.

At the end of the day it's better to have one late train than two late trains because the express is stuck behind the stopper.

Sorry, my mistake from a misreading of realtimetrains. Will correct original post.

But quite common for the Hull train to be turned round at Stalybridge when it's as little as 11 minutes late. So, whilst it's better to have one late train than two on this occasion, that's often not how it works out.

It's not better to protect the passengers on an express from a delay of say 15 minutes by creating a situation where passengers on a service which is only hourly is either cancelled or terminated/started short.

 

[bengley]

Sorry, my mistake from a misreading of realtimetrains. Will correct original post.

But quite common for the Hull train to be turned round at Stalybridge when it's as little as 11 minutes late. So, whilst it's better to have one late train than two on this occasion, that's often not how it works out.

It's not better to protect the passengers on an express from a delay of say 15 minutes by creating a situation where passengers on a service which is only hourly is either cancelled or terminated/started short.

I agree with you entirely, which is why the cause of the almost consistent delay to the ex-Hull service needs to be prevented.

 

[158756]

I agree with you entirely, which is why the cause of the almost consistent delay to the ex-Hull service needs to be prevented.

RTT shows that on the last five weekdays the Hull service has initially been delayed East of Leeds by the preceding TPE service or the XC service in front of it, which lose time for no obvious reason (platforms maybe?) at York or further up the ECML.

 

[bnm]

When and why did this thread be one about timetabled services in the North of England?

Is there any chance we can get back to discuss g whether FirstGroup is a likely takeover/breakup candidate?

 

[nr758123]

When and why did this thread be one about timetabled services in the North of England

Sorry about that. Quite a lot of threads stray into discussion of the North Transpennine timetable. Most things related either to First Group or service patterns across the North of England have some connection to the North TPE timetable.

I expect the mods will be along shortly to delete where we have strayed off-topic.

 

[SideshowBob]

When and why did this thread be one about timetabled services in the North of England?

Is there any chance we can get back to discuss g whether FirstGroup is a likely takeover/breakup candidate?

A number of posts referred to the situation of TPE (which is a First-operated franchise) losing money for First Group. This triggered some speculation (not least from me) about why that might be. There is a now quite lengthy thread on here dedicated to the sudden and dramatic fall in reliability of TPE services between York and Scarborough, which gives a good insight into the scale of the problem and the anecdotally observed fall in patronage on that route as a result of it.

Others have raised the increasing problem of skip-stopping and starting/terminating short on TPE.

The increasing perception that TPE's management don't care about any of this has also been raised.

TPE remains a busy and well-used franchise; however, it is expensive, increasingly unreliable and apparently badly-managed. Hardly a recipe for success for most businesses.

Also, the core TPE route and all of its services operate across a very large part of the north of England (and some of them continue into southern and central Scotland).

All these things are linked, however tenuously.

 

[Helvellyn]

For those wondering about First Group's woes it is only a few weeks since it announced it was going to incur a £106 million loss on TPE over the life of the franchise.

SWR passenger numbers have seen a big drop off which is believed to have affected revenue forecasts there if the baseline is already off from where they predicted (similar position to Stagecoach on VTEC where Martin Griffiths told the Transport Select Committee they knew within weeks of taking over they had problems because revenue was not where expected from when the bid was submitted nine months earlier).

First also confirmed in that announcement they were reviewing their North American operations.

They have rebuffed one takeover attempt from private equity so it seems like they are trying to realise shareholder value by offloading some operations. Problem is who wants GWR with such a short time left and you'd only take on TPE or the 60% stake in SWR if First sold it for a nominal fee, possibly with some sort of sweetener.

I can't see why Stagecoach would come in as a white knight for the 60% stake in SWR given the fact First are already trying to renegotiate the contract. Until that is sorted one way another I'd be surprised if anyone wanted the stake in SWR. TPE might be of interest but as mentioned above First would have to sweeten the deal to cover that predicted £106 million loss (i.e. covering the gap between revenue and premium payments).

Personally I wonder if Stagecoach might be interested in some of the bus operations if it felt it could consolidate them with an existing company or get coverage in a part of the country it has no presence, e.g. First York.

 

[WatcherZero]

It has made me wonder how the bus companies managed to be able to run railways in the first place. Take Scotrail for instance, certain parts of Scotland found that they lost their bus services and had them cut back after they took over the railways. Why the Monopolies and Mergers commission couldn't forsee this type of thing happening is beyond me.

Either run the buses or run the trains, not both.

Whenever a bus company wins a rail franchise their route network is examined to see if they become overly dominant in any area and they have been made to give up bus routes.

 

[HH]

since Keolis left TPE for First to go it alone this franchise hasn't exactly been the epitome of well managed either, a lot of staff want the incumbent (read incompetent) out and it is showing by the ill feelings internally amongst the front line staff

Keolis had hardly any input to the management of FKTPE. What managers have changed since the start of the new franchise? AFAIK most have stayed the same. I suspect the managers didn't suddenly get bad, so much that the situation is now beyond their ability to manage. The previous franchise was a doddle to run, compared to the one they bid themselves into this time.

 

[317 forever]

Wow, serious news here!

GWR and TPE could look attractive to Trenitalia for their intercity/express services in case they miss out on the West Coast partnership. MTR already own a small share in SWR then it's possible it may become a 100% owned MTR company after buying out First's share.

As for Stagecoach possibly getting SWR, that would be fantastic. They may have done badly with Virgin East Coast and has its fair share of criticisms across the board - what transport company doesn't? This is Britain, hardly Japan. I was mostly satisfied with their running of SWT, they had it for 20 years so had more experience and know-how of the network. Stagecoach may have managed other franchises terribly but perhaps they're a better fit with South Western so they should take it back.

Stagecoach South Western Railway must happen!

If Stagecoach buy South Western Railway, they could reinstate the South West Trains trading name and maybe even reprieve the class 707s they ordered.

 

[Journeyman]

If Stagecoach buy South Western Railway, they could reinstate the South West Trains trading name and maybe even reprieve the class 707s they ordered.

Absolutely won't happen. They only made a success of SWT because they ran it on much more favourable terms than First were given, and they won't just be offered their old deal back.

 

[theironroad]

Absolutely won't happen. They only made a success of SWT because they ran it on much more favourable terms than First were given, and they won't just be offered their old deal back.

+1

Anyone who thinks the DfT are going to go back and say 'Sorry Mr Souter, we got it wrong and would love Stagecoach come back and run the south western' is living in some alternative reality. Even if it made sense financially, it would be politically toxic for this minority government.