What will happen to Northern, ATW & GWR if the Class 769 "FLEX" fails?

[Bikeman78]

I wish people would stop mentioning the Class 230s as some sort of panacea. We have to be realistic that a 60mph battery powered train is not an ideal replacement for a 100mph 4 carriage train. The 230s would only be any use on branch lines. For instance, the class 230s could never work as stoppers on the congested lines through Manchester Airport and Stockport as the 319s currently do/769s would do if in service.

If anything it would make more sense for the ROSCOs to modernise some of the existing Pacers to Pacer-e concept. It would buy them and Northern a few years with a view to a new rolling stock by 2024 - which I hate saying as the Pacers have had their day if it is the aspiration to have a 21st century modern rail network across the North which is needed badly.

There is no point spending serious money on Pacers. Northern and GWR already have new trains or cascades planned to get rid of them. That just leaves the 30 units in Cardiff. Even without the 769s, over half that fleet will go with the other planned cascades.

 

[philthetube]

Pacers will not stay past the end of, it is political suicide and it no longer makes financial sense. Northern is short of DMUs but its more short of drivers. Pacers where meant to start going off lease from September but covering for the lateness of Preston-Manchester electrification and 769s. I would bet electrification will be done first which will instantly allow a large number of pacers to off lease (25-30?). The 769s will allow about 16 pacers to go off lease. The removal of the rest is covered by an internal cascades once new and cascaded stock arrives. Its possible the whole pacer fleet will go off lease in a short space of time next year but even if the 769 project is cancelled Northern can make do without them from 2020 until new or second hand stock arrives.

25/30 feel litk the approximate number of units they are currently short.

 

[randyrippley]

Class 56s don't have ETS (Electric train supply) unless GBRf try and get it squeezed into them in there supposedly upcoming re-engineering.
But an on board generator would do it.
Would get my vote over Sprinters or Flex.

But highly unlikely.

you spotted the typo in my post: it was supposed to say class 57

 

[LOL The Irony]

25/30 feel litk the approximate number of units they are currently short.

I'm guessing that'll be solved with the CAF's & ScotRail units.

 

[Cardiff123]

There is no point spending serious money on Pacers. Northern and GWR already have new trains or cascades planned to get rid of them. That just leaves the 30 units in Cardiff. Even without the 769s, over half that fleet will go with the other planned cascades.

South Wales' Pacers will be gone by 1/1/2020 as well.

 

[fgwrich]

There is finally, a picture of some progress of the first converted unit in this months Railway Magazine. It shows the inner end of the first converted unit with 2 new exhaust stacks coming from it - as per a 150. Unfortunately it doesn't have a date that the photo was taken and still says they are aiming for a July start date for testing. It does say though that the two converted ends so far are undergoing static testing, so perhaps, that is a little bit of progress at last.

 

[Chester1]

If desperate Northern could lease 185s. TPE franchise agreement allows them to give up 12 from 01/01/2020 and manufacture of their new units seems to on time or ahead of schedule meaning those 12 units should be redundant. An extra 10 x 185s on the top of the 2 units provided would allow other units to be internally cascaded to replace some pacers. There is also the option of copying W&B and using 153s coupled to compliant units from 2020. 195 production seems to be on schedule. Surely the Manchester to Preston electrification debacle will be over by 01/01/2020, in which case Northern can make do without any pacers or 769s. The withdrawal and scrapping of pacers is a political necessity for the government.

 

[LOL The Irony]

If desperate Northern could lease 185s. TPE franchise agreement allows them to give up 12 from 01/01/2020 and manufacture of their new units seems to on time or ahead of schedule meaning those 12 units should be redundant. An extra 10 x 185s on the top of the 2 units provided would allow other units to be internally cascaded to replace some pacers.

Well Northern have looked like the home for the 185's for a while.

 

[Rail Blues]

Is all still quiet on the 769 front? Wasn't testing supposed to happen be underway by the end of July?

Another missed deadline...what a surprise!

 

[superkev]

Well Northern have looked like the home for the 185's for a while.

The 185's with there 3 speed transmission would probably be better for Northern than the 170's which on Northerns slow network spend almost all of there time in 1st gear (change speed 65). I hear the ones on the Harrogate line are using vast quantities of oil.
K

 

[Silverlink]

As much as I don’t want it to happen I can see the flex project getting cancelled. Looks like for sure they have missed the testing deadline & I bet northern already have a plan B in place....

 

[MatthewRead]

As much as I don’t want it to happen I can see the flex project getting cancelled. Looks like for sure they have missed the testing deadline & I bet northern already have a plan B in place....

The what will ATW and GWR do?

 

[LOL The Irony]

I bet northern already have a plan B in place....

They probably have plan E, F & G on the cards considering the position they're in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The 185's with there 3 speed transmission would probably be better for Northern than the 170's which on Northerns slow network spend almost all of there time in 1st gear (change speed 65). I hear the ones on the Harrogate line are using vast quantities of oil.

Would regearing some to 70mph make sense?

 

[delticdave]

Is all still quiet on the 769 front? Wasn't testing supposed to happen be underway by the end of July?

Another missed deadline...what a surprise!

The 185's with there 3 speed transmission would probably be better for Northern than the 170's which on Northerns slow network spend almost all of there time in 1st gear (change speed 65). I hear the ones on the Harrogate line are using vast quantities of oil.
K

Lubricating oil or diesel fuel?

 

[gingertom]

Would regearing some to 70mph make sense?

I read a while back that an experiment took place with an ATW 158 being fitted with a Self-Changing gearbox, in order to improve fuel economy. The results of that experiment were that it did improve the fuel economy, and also its performance. If it was that successful I'm surprised it hasn't been rolled out. I'm wondering if this gearbox would be a useful retrofit for the 170? A bit OT though.

 

[northwichcat]

They probably have plan E, F & G on the cards considering the position they're in.

They've already got to Plan D, so if the 769s aren't in service by the next timetable change they'll be on to plan F.

Plan A: Electrification complete by December 2017
Plan B: Electrification complete by May 2018.
Plan C: Manchester-Bolton-Blackpool wired by May 2018 and 769s to cover the bits which haven't been wired
Plan D: Preston-Blackpool wired, Manchester-Bolton-Preston wiring delayed and 769s also delayed

 

[Deepgreen]

In addition to Northern, the 769s were also supposed to take over the North Downs line with GWR - I assume that's also been cancelled. Also, I think the case for running extra trains here (which were supposed to be introduced at the same time as the 769s) is predicated on the level crossing safety case being approved, and it hasn't so far as I know. The NDL seems doomed to endure the current inadequate service for a long time!

 

[LOL The Irony]

In addition to Northern, the 769s were also supposed to take over the North Downs line with GWR

I think I'm going to have to edit the title.

 

[PHILIPE]

In addition to Northern, the 769s were also supposed to take over the North Downs line with GWR - I assume that's also been cancelled. Also, I think the case for running extra trains here (which were supposed to be introduced at the same time as the 769s) is predicated on the level crossing safety case being approved, and it hasn't so far as I know. The NDL seems doomed to endure the current inadequate service for a long time!

ATW (until October) have been waiting for 5 for a year now.

 

[The_Engineer]

I think I'm going to have to edit the title.

you're posting in the wrong thread - it should be - https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ains-from-319s-initially-for-northern.138660/

 

[AlexNL]

In addition to Northern, the 769s were also supposed to take over the North Downs line with GWR - I assume that's also been cancelled.

Wouldn't that have knock-on effects for the displacement of Turbo's to Bristol, and using Electrostars for HEx? If no 387's can be released from GWR services for use on HEx, I can see DfT/HS2 getting pretty upset.

 

[LOL The Irony]

you're posting in the wrong thread - it should be - https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ains-from-319s-initially-for-northern.138660/

That thread should be about the progress of the project. This thread sould be about what happens if/when it goes down the toilet. There will be some posts that cross over since they're about the same thing.

 

[tbtc]

As much as I don’t want it to happen I can see the flex project getting cancelled. Looks like for sure they have missed the testing deadline & I bet northern already have a plan B in place....

They probably have plan E, F & G on the cards considering the position they're in.

Upgrading/ converting old trains seems to be a lot harder/ cost a lot more money/ take a lot longer than expected.

For example, compare the 800/801 carriages churned out by Newton Aycliffe with the complications of bringing Mk3 carriages up to modern standards.

Given the time taken to stick an engine into a 319 it seems a lot simpler/ cost efficient/ faster to build FLIRTS (755s) for Anglia.

Problem is that most of the 769s were intended for heavily subsidised TOCs (Northern, Wales 'n' Borders) so it may not be so simple to move the goalposts.

However people will still suggest "can't we just rejig the trains that I loved when I was a boy" as the answer to most rolling stock problems, ignoring the clear evidence that it's becoming incredibly difficult/ costly/ time consuming to amend existing trains (at a time when production lines can built brand new ones much easier).

The 769 project seemed a good idea - the 230 project is definitely a good idea (albeit a niche product rather than the solution to widespread issues) but the reality seems to be that Porterbrook aren't able to combine their large stocks of redundant EMUs with the clear need for self-powered trains to meet capacity problems. It'll probably be something we debate in ten years time along the lines of "but it seemed so obvious at the time - why could nobody make it work", in the way that we talk about Project Thor etc now.

 

[Greybeard33]

Upgrading/ converting old trains seems to be a lot harder/ cost a lot more money/ take a lot longer than expected.

I take no pleasure in being proved right, but back in December 2016 I posted in the other thread:

Repurposing a 26+ year old train may seem simple and straightforward to the armchair experts on this forum, but, as in all engineering, "the devil is in the detail".

That prophecy really did not need a crystal ball!

 

[Deepgreen]

Wouldn't that have knock-on effects for the displacement of Turbo's to Bristol, and using Electrostars for HEx? If no 387's can be released from GWR services for use on HEx, I can see DfT/HS2 getting pretty upset.

Indeed, but perhaps DafT should get its act together and devise a sensible railway strategy, including workable stock developments.

 

[js1000]

Interesting someone mentioned Project Thor. They couldn't make bi-mode conversion work on a relatively new DMU with the Voyagers (from 2000). Makes you think how on earth would they made it work on EMU units from the 1980s with even more obsolete equipment.

The more days that pass the more it's not hard to think Porterbrook were just desperate to find a use for the 319s by whatever means possible - even if they knew they suspected bi-mode conversion would be unlikely. Grayling's perverse obsession with bi-mode trains simply to save money provided the perfected smokescreen.

The TOCs bought into it and I'm afraid it's the passengers who have suffered.

 

[JamesT]

Interesting someone mentioned Project Thor. They couldn't make bi-mode conversion work on a relatively new DMU with the Voyagers (from 2000). Makes you think how on earth would they made it work on EMU units from the 1980s with even more obsolete equipment.

The more days that pass the more it's not hard to think Porterbrook were just desperate to find a use for the 319s by whatever means possible - even if they knew they suspected bi-mode conversion would be unlikely. Grayling's perverse obsession with bi-mode trains simply to save money provided the perfected smokescreen.

The TOCs bought into it and I'm afraid it's the passengers who have suffered.

Did they actually try with the Voyagers? I thought it was rejected at the proposal stage by the DfT as overly expensive.

Older trains might actually be easier to convert, if they have less complicated electronics involved that need changing.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Interesting someone mentioned Project Thor. They couldn't make bi-mode conversion work on a relatively new DMU with the Voyagers (from 2000). Makes you think how on earth would they made it work on EMU units from the 1980s with even more obsolete equipment.

The more days that pass the more it's not hard to think Porterbrook were just desperate to find a use for the 319s by whatever means possible - even if they knew they suspected bi-mode conversion would be unlikely. Grayling's perverse obsession with bi-mode trains simply to save money provided the perfected smokescreen.

The TOCs bought into it and I'm afraid it's the passengers who have suffered.

Indeed the shiny even better rescue ship appears to have been an old life raft with holes in it......

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Did they actually try with the Voyagers? I thought it was rejected at the proposal stage by the DfT as overly expensive.

The proposal timed out rather than being rejected.
The objective was to find work for Derby, and most of the Voyager work would have been abroad.
Then the 387 orders started popping up so Derby didn't need the Voyager work.
Had it been implemented, it would have been an extremely useful bi-mode project for XC and maybe VT and EMT too, and grown capacity into the bargain.
It was mushrooming into the unaffordable category though, when DFT/Bombardier lost interest.