EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[47802]

Well I don't see these proposals as particularly Soft Brexit, despite how its being portrayed in the media, and getting the EU to accept much of this is another matter. But the Tory Hard Brexit need to get behind this and we need to get on with the EU negotiations, I frankly despair at the politics of this country at the moment, and if the Hard Brexiters decide to Topple her then, we will end up with an election and a choice between a Hard Right, Hard Brexit Tory Government or a Hard Left/Marxist Labour Government both of which will be equally a disaster for this country in my view.

 

[northwichcat]

Well I don't see these proposals as particularly Soft Brexit, despite how its being portrayed in the media, and getting the EU to accept much of this is another matter. But the Tory Hard Brexit need to get behind this and we need to get on with the EU negotiations, I frankly despair at the politics of this country at the moment, and if the Hard Brexiters decide to Topple her then, we will end up with an election and a choice between a Hard Right, Hard Brexit Tory Government or a Hard Left/Marxist Labour Government both of which will be equally a disaster for this country in my view.

If that was to happen the likelihood of SDP mkII increases. There are the Lib Dems as well but they really need to be lead by a new face who wasn't involved in the coalition with the Conservatives to stand any chance of doing well.

 

[Howardh]

If that was to happen the likelihood of SDP mkII increases. There are the Lib Dems as well but they really need to be lead by a new face who wasn't involved in the coalition with the Conservatives to stand any chance of doing well.

Blair??

 

[47802]

If that was to happen the likelihood of SDP mkII increases. There are the Lib Dems as well but they really need to be lead by a new face who wasn't involved in the coalition with the Conservatives to stand any chance of doing well.

Well yes but previous experience shows it doesn't work under our 2 party first past the post system which essentially works on a the basis of a bunch left wingers and right ringers deciding on how much they want to appeal to the centre ground in order to win an election.

Coming back to Referendum I get fed up of those trying to question the result, I voted remain, but the result was to leave end of, and yes in whatever relationship we end up in with the EU it is likely to cost jobs and damage the economy that why I voted remain even though my heart was probably leave, but essentially that's the price of Brexit.

 

[northwichcat]

Well yes but previous experience shows it doesn't work under our 2 party first past the post system which essentially works on a the basis of a bunch left wingers and right ringers deciding on how much they want to appeal to the centre ground in order to win an election.

The problem under FPTP is almost everyone thinks the only options are:
1. Conservative majority government
2. Labour majority government
3. Hung parliament - leading to one of minority government, coalition or another election

Then they vote to either put one party in to government or to try and keep a particular party out of government. In the Canadian Federal elections (which work the same way as our General Elections) the Liberal Party got the majority of the seats at the last election but finished 3rd at the election before that.

The likelihood of either a new party genuinely challenging for government or a reformed Lib Dem party challenging is increased if people such as Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger leave their current parties and stand for the same seats for a different party.

 

[northwichcat]

Blair??

If Blair was to join the Lib Dems I don't think it would right for them to either make him leader or to not give him any kind of senior role in the party. Someone like Wera Hobhouse might be a good choice - no tarnished voting record and the limited attention she has received as a MP has been positive.

 

[Bromley boy]

Well I don't see these proposals as particularly Soft Brexit, despite how its being portrayed in the media, and getting the EU to accept much of this is another matter. But the Tory Hard Brexit need to get behind this and we need to get on with the EU negotiations, I frankly despair at the politics of this country at the moment, and if the Hard Brexiters decide to Topple her then, we will end up with an election and a choice between a Hard Right, Hard Brexit Tory Government or a Hard Left/Marxist Labour Government both of which will be equally a disaster for this country in my view.

Agreed.

I hope it’s the beginnings of a way forward. It’s inevitable we will end up with a fudge which doesn’t really satisfy either side - but that’s just politics.

Of course it remains to be seen what the U.K. government actually manages to negotiate - the devil is in the detail - sadly they lack back bone as has become very obvious over the last few months.

I rather imagine the EU would have been persuaded to compromise at an earlier stage if the U.K. government had threatened (and meant it) to abandon the article 50 process and unilaterally repeal the EU treaties, no exit bill, no more contributions...

 

[northwichcat]

if the U.K. government had threatened (and meant it) to abandon the article 50 process and unilaterally repeal the EU treaties, no exit bill, no more contributions...

If you misjudge the EU and they don't back down when we threaten them it could literally mean an overnight end to Eurostar services and UK-EU flights, rather than it just being a scaremongering story.

Even worse that idea could potentially start a war. It could start with something like Spain taking military action over Gibraltar and the EU not really caring, instead of standing up for us in any dispute like they have done in the past. Then if other countries in the EU feel we've screwed them over, they could join forces with Spain if we retaliate.

 

[Howardh]

On a scale of 0 - 10 where 0 is no-deal WTO rules and 10 is actually still being in the EU as a fully paid-up member, where does everyone think we will eventually end up.

I'd say now somewhere between 7 and 8; before the Chequers showdown I'd have said between 5 and 7.

 

[Howardh]

If you misjudge the EU and they don't back down when we threaten them it could literally mean an overnight end to Eurostar services and UK-EU flights, rather than it just being a scaremongering story.

Even worse that idea could potentially start a war. It could start with something like Spain taking military action over Gibraltar and the EU not really caring, instead of standing up for us in any dispute like they have done in the past. Then if other countries in the EU feel we've screwed them over, they could join forces with Spain if we retaliate.

The latter part is interesting, the EU and NATO are seperate entities and under NATO rules as I understand they would back the non-agressor when both are in NATO.
In reality I reckon - with a hard Brexit - the senario is that the Spanish somehow take control of the airport (via ATC) as (again I understand, please correct) they have always wanted half-control of the airport (and air space). That way they could in future blockade Gibraltar completely, hastening sovereignity talks. Buit they face the wrath of NATO even if not the EU.
But I think the chances are very remote, Spain wants the tourist pound and doesn't wat to upset the Brits. But we've seen what governments can do to distract their population when their economy's in a mess before....

 

[Bromley boy]

If you misjudge the EU and they don't back down when we threaten them it could literally mean an overnight end to Eurostar services and UK-EU flights, rather than it just being a scaremongering story.

It’s not without risk but, in the end, money talks. On a very simplistic level, that’s how all negotiations work. If you were buying a housr and the seller knew you weren’t prepared to walk away from the deal, you’d be taken to the cleaners.

Something a lot of people on here seem to forget is that the U.K. is one of the largest net contributors to the EU’s coffers (off the top of my head there are only 4 net contributors!). The threat of the immediate loss of that income versus making some reasonable concessions to the UK’s demands would concentrate minds.

Even worse that idea could potentially start a war. It could start with something like Spain taking military action over Gibraltar and the EU not really caring, instead of standing up for us in any dispute like they have done in the past. Then if other countries in the EU feel we've screwed them over, they could join forces with Spain if we retaliate.

I rather think that’s adding 2+2 and making 5,000.

 

[northwichcat]

The latter part is interesting, the EU and NATO are seperate entities and under NATO rules as I understand they would back the non-agressor when both are in NATO.
In reality I reckon - with a hard Brexit - the senario is that the Spanish somehow take control of the airport (via ATC) as (again I understand, please correct) they have always wanted half-control of the airport (and air space). That way they could in future blockade Gibraltar completely, hastening sovereignity talks. Buit they face the wrath of NATO even if not the EU.
But I think the chances are very remote, Spain wants the tourist pound and doesn't wat to upset the Brits. But we've seen what governments can do to distract their population when their economy's in a mess before....

Highlighted by a former mayor of La Linea wanting to introduce a 'congestion charge' which would only apply to cars which go through La Linea on the way to Gibraltar- basically a border crossing fee. The EU saw it as that and said it would be illegal but as the border won't be anything to do with the EU post-Brexit the idea could be resurrected.

 

[Tim R-T-C]

The Gibraltar border is going to be a lot more complex anyway if customs and visa checks are required. Intentional or just cost saving undermanning of the border posts could make it tremendously long to travel across.

If we end up needing visas to visit EU countries (which we would with a no deal) then multiple entry visas would be required for anyone holidaying in Spain and wanting to visit Gibraltar.

 

[northwichcat]

I rather think that’s adding 2+2 and making 5,000.

Two things to consider
1. If the UK did what you proposed and actually went ahead with it then we'd be leaving the EU in a similar manner to how Croatia left Yugoslavia. That was a peaceful breakup wasn't it? :roll:
2. The Spain-Gibraltar border was closed under the EC, it was only after the EC became the EU that an agreement was reached to reopen it and it's stayed open ever since even when Anglo Spain relations have turned sour.

 

[northwichcat]

If we end up needing visas to visit EU countries (which we would with a no deal) then multiple entry visas would be required for anyone holidaying in Spain and wanting to visit Gibraltar.

The EU is already working on the basis that we'll have to do ETIAS (EU equivalent of the American ESTA scheme) post-Brexit: https://www.etiaseurope.eu/ Note Norway and Switzerland are on the list of countries but the UK is.

 

[Bromley boy]

Two things to consider
1. If the UK did what you proposed and actually went ahead with it then we'd be leaving the EU in a similar manner to how Croatia left Yugoslavia. That was a peaceful breakup wasn't it? :roll:
2. The Spain-Gibraltar border was closed under the EC, it was only after the EC became the EU that an agreement was reached to reopen it and it's stayed open ever since even when Anglo Spain relations have turned sour.

1. Despite what the EY sycophants on here (and the institution itself!) seem to believe, the EU isn’t a country, so it’s patently ridiculous to compare a nation state leaving a supra national political and economic arrangement with the break up of a country. To compare the two is scaremongering of the highest order.

2. I couldn’t care less about Gibraltar. I also note that Spain relies on the British tourist £, so I rather suspect money would talk in respect of that particular relationship anyhow.

 

[northwichcat]

1. Despite what the EY sycophants on here (and the institution itself!) seem to believe, the EU isn’t a country, so it’s patently ridiculous to compare a nation state leaving a supra national political and economic arrangement with the break up of a country. To compare the two is scaremongering of the highest order.

I know the EU isn't a country but Yugoslavia was a collection of 6 republics which didn't naturally fit together, so there are similarities with the EU. It's not the pro-EU people who think of the EU as a country, it's the pro-Brexit people who think we'll become the United States of Europe if we don't leave.

2. I couldn’t care less about Gibraltar. I also note that Spain relies on the British tourist £, so I rather suspect money would talk in respect of that particular relationship anyhow.

You're missing the point entirely. The EU has helped keep a peaceful relationship between ourselves and Spain, despite us not agreeing on Gibraltar. If Spain takes Gibraltar using military force we'll end up at war with a country close to our doorstep. The fact that their on our doorstep means it wouldn't be a repeat of the Falkland Islands war - the British mainland could be at risk of attack.

 

[mmh]

The EU is already working on the basis that we'll have to do ETIAS (EU equivalent of the American ESTA scheme) post-Brexit: https://www.etiaseurope.eu/ Note Norway and Switzerland are on the list of countries but the UK is.

The UK isn't in the list of countries because the list is a list of countries in Schengen, not the EU, and the ETIAS is intended to be a system to authorise entry to Schengen from visa-free non-Schengen countries, not the EU.

As ever, even the EU itself manages to confuse its ragbag of terminologies and exceptions and differences, so it's no wonder its supporters can't keep up either!

 

[mmh]

You're missing the point entirely. The EU has helped keep a peaceful relationship between ourselves and Spain, despite us not agreeing on Gibraltar. If Spain takes Gibraltar using military force we'll end up at war with a country close to our doorstep.

Why would they do that? They've had 300 years to not do it. Nothing at all to do with the EU.

The fact that their on our doorstep means it wouldn't be a repeat of the Falkland Islands war - the British mainland could be at risk of attack.

Not even the best of Project Fear claimed the EU will go to war with Britain or Spain will have one over Gibraltar! This is impressive stuff.

 

[Howardh]

I'm hoping now we can put Visas/ETIAS schemes involving the UK to bed. What's the point of having frictionless movement of goods when the drivers are subject to queues and hold-ups having their Visas checked? Also May wishes to get rid of Freedom of Movement - but replace it with and anagram of Freedom of Movement.

 

[Howardh]

Not even the best of Project Fear claimed the EU will go to war with Britain or Spain will have one over Gibraltar! This is impressive stuff.

Do you not think Spain wants -at least - joint sovereignity over Gibraltar? Where've you been??!! I know people on here couldn't care less about Gibraltar, but Gibaltarians do and it's their will (over 99%) to stay under the British flag, wholly. Any movement which can't be solved by diplomatic solutions could well lead to a significant conflict, as it's our duty to defend our own.

If, in 1980, you'd have said "ha, Falklands, who cared about them, give them to Argentina, there'll never be a war...." Hmmm.

Hopefully sense will prevail - even if it's the touris Euro as alluded to above.

 

[northwichcat]

Why would they do that? They've had 300 years to not do it. Nothing at all to do with the EU.

Wars like the Spanish Civil War might have been of higher importance at the time.

 

[northwichcat]

The UK isn't in the list of countries because the list is a list of countries in Schengen, not the EU, and the ETIAS is intended to be a system to authorise entry to Schengen from visa-free non-Schengen countries, not the EU.

As ever, even the EU itself manages to confuse its ragbag of terminologies and exceptions and differences, so it's no wonder its supporters can't keep up either!

What are you going on about? I'm going on about the list of countries which people from will require an ETIAS, not the countries where it will be required to enter.

 

[bramling]

Blair??

One way to achieve something is to establish an organisation standing for the exact opposite and get Blair on board. That’s how toxic he is.

 

[Bromley boy]

I know the EU isn't a country but Yugoslavia was a collection of 6 republics which didn't naturally fit together, so there are similarities with the EU. It's not the pro-EU people who think of the EU as a country, it's the pro-Brexit people who think we'll become the United States of Europe if we don't leave.

I’ve honestly never read such rubbish.

I simply cannot believe you would compare a member state leaving the EU with the break up of the former yougoslavia. A massively compelex issue, which was largely along ethnic lines. You do realise that?!

Perhaps you also equate the failure of the EU (Brexit) with the breakup of the former USSR, the German occupation of the Rhineland in 1936ish, or the retreat of the Mongal hoardes from Europe!

Incredible hyperbole - which suggests you either know nothing about the issues in question, or you’re simply scaremongering to prove a point!

You're missing the point entirely. The EU has helped keep a peaceful relationship between ourselves and Spain, despite us not agreeing on Gibraltar. If Spain takes Gibraltar using military force we'll end up at war with a country close to our doorstep. The fact that their on our doorstep means it wouldn't be a repeat of the Falkland Islands war - the British mainland could be at risk of attack.

Taking it to the same ridiculous extent - it wouldn’t be the first Spanish armada we have repelled! This time - there’s no need for sir Francis Drake - we can simply lob a trident warhead (or six) over to Madrid and Barca.

Although, I rather hope we don’t, I rather like paella, Barcelonetta and Gaudi architecture .

Ridiculous hyperbole.

Hopefully sense will prevail - even if it's the touris Euro as alluded to above.

Absolutely - hopefully we are moving towards that now...

 

[fowler9]

Haha, so you knew what you were voting for but the UK government and the EU didn't. I can see a problem.

 

[yorksrob]

Two things to consider
1. If the UK did what you proposed and actually went ahead with it then we'd be leaving the EU in a similar manner to how Croatia left Yugoslavia. That was a peaceful breakup wasn't it? :roll:
2. The Spain-Gibraltar border was closed under the EC, it was only after the EC became the EU that an agreement was reached to reopen it and it's stayed open ever since even when Anglo Spain relations have turned sour.

Are you suggesting that the UK leaving the EU is going to cause a Yugoslav style war ? I think that that is unlikely in the extreme, bearing in mind that before the EU existed even General Franco didn't start a war with Gibraltar, rather he blockaded it.

Mrs May's blueprint sounds quite sensible to me. I wonder whether our continental neighbours will agree though.

 

[northwichcat]

Are you suggesting that the UK leaving the EU is going to cause a Yugoslav style war ? I think that that is unlikely in the extreme, bearing in mind that before the EU existed even General Franco didn't start a war with Gibraltar, rather he blockaded it.

Mrs May's blueprint sounds quite sensible to me. I wonder whether our continental neighbours will agree though.

No I'm suggesting @Bromley boy's extreme proposal for Brexit could potentially if it bullying the EU didn't work out.

 

[northwichcat]

I’ve honestly never read such rubbish.

I simply cannot believe you would compare a member state leaving the EU with the break up of the former yougoslavia. A massively compelex issue, which was largely along ethnic lines. You do realise that?!

Perhaps you also equate the failure of the EU (Brexit) with the breakup of the former USSR, the German occupation of the Rhineland in 1936ish, or the retreat of the Mongal hoardes from Europe!

Incredible hyperbole - which suggests you either know nothing about the issues in question, or you’re simply scaremongering to prove a point!



Taking it to the same ridiculous extent - it wouldn’t be the first Spanish armada we have repelled! This time - there’s no need for sir Francis Drake - we can simply lob a trident warhead (or six) over to Madrid and Barca.

Although, I rather hope we don’t, I rather like paella, Barcelonetta and Gaudi architecture .

Ridiculous hyperbole.



Absolutely - hopefully we are moving towards that now...

You were suggesting a style of 'negotiation' which hasn't been seen in a western European country since 1945 where existing agreements with other countries would be torn up if they refuse to accept being dictated to. You also haven't answered my question about whether your proposal would be nothing more than a threat or whether you'd actually go through with it if the EU didn't give in.

What I'm saying about a war with Spain almost certainly won't happen but that's because actually going through with your proposal would only happen under a party like the EDL or Britain First and they won't be delivering Brexit, UKIP might use it as a threat but I doubt even UKIP would actually go through with it.

Theresa May has recently revealed a proposal, which if accepted will see Britain getting exactly what you voted for without going to the extreme method you proposed. I don't know why you are such a bitter winner. It seems delivering the Brexit as result of the EU referendum result isn't enough for you, despite all your posts telling those who voted remain that they have to accept Brexit even if they don't like it because that's what we voted for. You can't have it both ways.

 

[3141]

What interests me is what may happen in Britain politically. If the EU doesn't respond positively to May's proposals, where do we go? If it's towards a harder Brexit, or no deal at all, could she remain PM? That would be even more unlikely if negotiations took us to an even softer Brexit, or not leaving at all - though that seems a particularly improbable outcome. So let's say that hard Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet, and the Conservative Party is split. How long could May carry on if she had to rely on Labour support? Or imagine if May resigns as party leader, and they try to elect a successor in order to stay in power and avoid a General Election, which they fear Corbyn would win. That might postpone the crunch, but by 2022 their chances of winning would most likely be even lower.

As somebody said above, maybe a new centre party would emerge. It's hard to see who would have sufficient attraction to lead it to electoral success, but the alternatives of Hard Left or Hard Right might provide an incentive. However, there's a huge amount of latent loyalty to both the main parties, and it would require a gigantic threat to persuade enough of their traditional supporters that it was time to vote for something entirely different.

The suggestion from the Right, reported last week, that May's proposals could lead the Conservatives to lose the next election, struck me as rubbish: they will probably lose it because of the result of the referendum they held, implementing which cannot be done in a way that will lead to general satisfaction. They'd be in no better position if she'd opted for a hard Brexit.