EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[muddythefish]

Airbus have one source of wings. They would need to continue full production at the existing UK facility in order to meet their delivery schedules. They could not transfer equipment or personnel from the existing operation without jeopardising this, and that would result in big compensation payments to airlines and loss of business to Boeing. Airbus would have to identify a site, build the factory, equip it from scratch, recruit and train staff and bring production on stream, all the while continuing full production at the UK plant with a presumably increasingly demoralised workforce who could see the exit door approaching. We are not talking about a baked bean tin factory, this is very high tech. stuff and is actually a plant that manufactures things, not just an assembly operation that screws together bits made elsewhere, which is much easier and cheaper to set up. If history is anything to go by there would be endless haggling between the French, Germans and Spanish over where the plant should be sited, let alone financing and building the thing.

Yep, and it will all be going to Germany within 10 years.

 

[mmh]

Depending on how much background IP there is in the wings

The IP belongs to Airbus, and they're not about to outsource wing making to Boeing, so it doesn't matter.

the designs can be moved to wherever the costs are the lowest.

Ah, but they've never been built where the "costs" would be lowest. As someone else said earlier, the locations of Airbus plants have more to do with subsidies to put them there in the first place, both from the EU and the country they're in. There's been all kinds of nonsense spoken over the past few days about how they rely on a "just in time" production model, while at the same time having spokespeople in the media saying their components might cross borders three or four times.

Hardly "just in time", and if it was the case you wouldn't build your wings in north wales and fly them or ship them to the south of France.

I'm not saying this as a gung-ho brexiteer or similar, I'm from North Wales. I know people who work there. It's a good job and a good company to work for.

the more valuable highly skilled elements of Aerospace workforces are generally quite mobile.

Multiple people have said similar to me the past few days, I've bitten my tongue. We're talking of 14,000 odd workers, the bulk are skilled labourers from a wider area (at least for Broughton) than I think people realise. Talk of "they'll move to France" or wherever is bloody insulting, no they won't, they'll end up on the dole.

 

[birchesgreen]

Just in time refers to everything not the finished product. Hundreds if not thousands of components go into these wings before they are shipped to France.

 

[Western Lord]

Yep, and it will all be going to Germany within 10 years.

Not if the French and/or Spanish get their way!

 

[Domh245]

There's been all kinds of nonsense spoken over the past few days about how they rely on a "just in time" production model, while at the same time having spokespeople in the media saying their components might cross borders three or four times.

Hardly "just in time", and if it was the case you wouldn't build your wings in north wales and fly them or ship them to the south of France.

Just in time isn't about rapid moving between sites, it's about things arriving and then going straight into the production line to avoid having to have warehouses full of components - a particularly useful concept when working with large components like wings as you won't get many wings in a warehouse. The important thing is that currently if the transporter leaves the UK on time it'll arrive at Toulouse on time (usually) and go near enough straight into the production line. If there isn't a deal, upon arrival at Toulouse, or departure from the UK it'll be forced to wait some (variable) amount of time to clear customs before then being able to go onto the production line.

 

[EM2]

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2018/06/uk-a...ink-on-brexit-red-lines-as-uncertainty-bites/
UK automotive industry urges rethink on Brexit red lines as uncertainty bites

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) today called for swifter progress on Brexit and a deal that, as a minimum, maintains customs union membership and delivers single market benefits. With investment slowing and time running out, negotiators must get on with the job of agreeing a deal that will put an end to uncertainty and prioritise the needs of the automotive sector. The call came as SMMT published the latest industry figures showing record turnover, the result of long planned investments, but amid growing concern that progress could be reversed in the absence of clarity on our future regulatory and customs relations with the EU.
...
Despite this positive performance last year, the first six months of 2018 have been less encouraging. Production output has fallen alongside slowing demand in the new vehicle markets; job cuts have been announced and investment has stalled, with just £347.3 million earmarked for new models, equipment and facilities in the UK – almost half the sum announced in the same period last year.

With decisions on new vehicle models in the UK due soon, government must take steps to boost investor confidence and safeguard the thousands of jobs that depend on the sector. Government must end the current uncertainty about the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU, and commit to continued membership of the customs union and maintenance of the benefits the single market delivers. Leaving the single market and customs union will bring an end to the seamless movement of goods that UK Automotive relies upon, with more than 1,100 trucks from the EU bringing components to car and engine plants every day. Without the customs union and the regulatory alignment of the single market, there would be disruption at the border undermining the competitiveness of the sector.

 

[AM9]

The IP belongs to Airbus, and they're not about to outsource wing making to Boeing, so it doesn't matter. ...

IP extends beyond the design. There are processes, specialist materials and even handling methods that are backgroung IP of manufacturing companies and even subcontractors. So, it goes without saying that the wing functional design is Airbus plc., but if some of the manufacture is dependent on the use of BAe, (or less likely De Havilland or Vickers) background IP, it might just delay the move until equivalent processes can be set up in a less isolated location.

Multiple people have said similar to me the past few days, I've bitten my tongue. We're talking of 14,000 odd workers, the bulk are skilled labourers from a wider area (at least for Broughton) than I think people realise. Talk of "they'll move to France" or wherever is bloody insulting, no they won't, they'll end up on the dole.

I was referring to the more valuable skilled elements of the workforce. That's not putting down any of the established workforce in Broughton, but there is a lesser number of critical resources that would be essential and could easily be moved. Everbody has their price no matter how nationalistic they might feel.

 

[mmh]

I see the private company that acts most like the EU in bullying its way against any objections has been at it yet again today.

Heathrow Airport. Always the same nonsense from them that the country will fall apart if they can't make more money.

 

[mmh]

IP extends beyond the design. There are processes, specialist materials and even handling methods that are backgroung IP of manufacturing companies and even subcontractors. So, it goes without saying that the wing functional design is Airbus plc., but if some of the manufacture is dependent on the use of BAe, (or less likely De Havilland or Vickers) background IP, it might just delay the move until equivalent processes can be set up in a less isolated location.


I was referring to the more valuable skilled elements of the workforce. That's not putting down any of the established workforce in Broughton, but there is a lesser number of critical resources that would be essential and could easily be moved. Everbody has their price no matter how nationalistic they might feel.

*I* was putting down the Broughton workforce, including people I know. Give up with this nonsense that any of them of them are indispensible. And that includes management, they're as throwaway as everyone else.

Everbody has their price no matter how nationalistic they might feel

No, they really don't. You're talking about people like they're faceless commodites. There will be zero opportunity for Broughton workers to go to France if it was closed, and even if there was, they wouldn't - or couldn't, because freedom of movement of labour won't exist any more, which is why... How circular.

Dear lord.

 

[NSEFAN]

I see the private company that acts most like the EU in bullying its way against any objections has been at it yet again today.

Heathrow Airport. Always the same nonsense from them that the country will fall apart if they can't make more money.

If the companies make less money and can make more elsewhere, then why should they not raise this concern? Would you rather they moved without warning and their employees end up on the dole? That is good neither for the employees nor the country.

 

[AM9]

... There will be zero opportunity for Broughton workers to go to France if it was closed, and even if there was, they wouldn't - or couldn't, because freedom of movement of labour won't exist any more, which is why... How circular. ...

Freedom of movement is there now, those who want to give it away can't complain. Maybe the penny will drop one day although not before it's too late.

 

[mmh]

If the companies make less money and can make more elsewhere, then why should they not raise this concern? Would you rather they moved without warning and their employees end up on the dole? That is good neither for the employees nor the country.

Heathrow's continual argument for why it needs to be expanded has been that they were losing out to larger "hub" airports. Amsterdam was the usual one. So their position is they need to be allowed to somehow miraculously be a saviour of the economy when all they're really interested in is their own profits.

I couldn't care less if more people change planes in Amsterdam than London. Unless they're getting off in those countries they're economically worthless to the Netherlands or the UK. It only benefits the airport operators.

 

[mmh]

Freedom of movement is there now, those who want to give it away can't complain. Maybe the penny will drop one day although not before it's too late.

Voted to give it away, would vote to give it away tomorrow despite two years of people claiming I'm one of: too stupid to understand what I voted for, xenophobic, or at best a silly nostalgist.

I'm none of those. I've also never seen so much arrogance and abuse towards people who happened to vote a different way before the past two years. Most votes I've ever placed haven't resulted in the victor I wanted. That happens.

 

[NSEFAN]

Heathrow's continual argument for why it needs to be expanded has been that they were losing out to larger "hub" airports. Amsterdam was the usual one. So their position is they need to be allowed to somehow miraculously be a saviour of the economy when all they're really interested in is their own profits.

I couldn't care less if more people change planes in Amsterdam than London. Unless they're getting off in those countries they're economically worthless to the Netherlands or the UK. It only benefits the airport operators.

Of course they're interested in their profits, that's the whole point of business. But if they operate in the UK then they will pay various taxes here, and also employ taxpayers. Even if passengers merely interchange and don't exit the airport, they will still be by extension contributing something to the UK economy.

 

[birchesgreen]

I'm none of those. I've also never seen so much arrogance and abuse towards people who happened to vote a different way before the past two years. Most votes I've ever placed haven't resulted in the victor I wanted. That happens.

That is a point though a key difference is in a few years you have the chance to vote again. Won't with Brexit.

 

[AlterEgo]

That is a point though a key difference is in a few years you have the chance to vote again. Won't with Brexit.

That doesn’t excuse the animosity shown by some Remainers towards Leavers. I think the arrogance is shocking.

 

[AM9]

That doesn’t excuse the animosity shown by some Remainers towards Leavers. I think the arrogance is shocking.

Equally in the reverse direction. Leavers crowing such words as "we won, - get over it" have rather brought it on themselves. Despite many more understanding voices on the leaver side appealing for a more adult respect for the (very nearly) 50% of voters who didn't vote the same way as them, the baying continues and in some ways undermines much of the process that the leavers are struggling to enact.

 

[Senex]

Equally in the reverse direction. Leavers crowing such words as "we won, - get over it" have rather brought it on themselves. Despite many more understanding voices on the leaver side appealing for a more adult respect for the (very nearly) 50% of voters who didn't vote the same way as them, the baying continues and in some ways undermines much of the process that the leavers are struggling to enact.

They have very much brought it on themselves — the more so every time May goes on about "the Brexit the British people voted for" whilst at the same time the majority of the emerging evidence shews how difficult Brexit is likely to be. There has been no sign of respect at all from the Leavers and their politicians for the very nearly 50% of those who vote who did not share their view, who are still not convinced by everything that has emerged over the last two years that Brexit can be anything but a huge mistake, and who do not share the rather jingoistic view that in the end "Europe" will have to give the Brexiteers all the concessions they expect.

 

[birchesgreen]

As someone said, after the referendum 52% got rounded up to 100% and 48% got rounded down to 0%

That doesn’t excuse the animosity shown by some Remainers towards Leavers. I think the arrogance is shocking.

Doesn't excuse some leavers calling on remainers to leave the country or threaten to kill them either does it?

 

[Western Lord]

Heathrow's continual argument for why it needs to be expanded has been that they were losing out to larger "hub" airports. Amsterdam was the usual one. So their position is they need to be allowed to somehow miraculously be a saviour of the economy when all they're really interested in is their own profits.

I couldn't care less if more people change planes in Amsterdam than London. Unless they're getting off in those countries they're economically worthless to the Netherlands or the UK. It only benefits the airport operators.

I wonder why the Government doesn't have the same approach to Heathrow as it does to the BBC, which is told it is too "London-centric" and must transfer operations to other parts of the country. They should tell Heathrow to build it's new runway in the north!

 

[Howardh]

I wonder why the Government doesn't have the same approach to Heathrow as it does to the BBC, which is told it is too "London-centric" and must transfer operations to other parts of the country. They should tell Heathrow to build it's new runway in the north!

A new airport anywhere on the HS2 route should do, would be quicker to get into London than from Heathrow! Maybe a nice leafy part of the south midlands, preferably a Tory leave-voting MP's constituency. After all, we will need those runways for the new global Britain....

 

[AlterEgo]

Doesn't excuse some leavers calling on remainers to leave the country or threaten to kill them either does it?

I had a post deleted for “not making sense” when I said this was “Premium whataboutery”.

That’s what this is. It’s a great example of whataboutery. Whataboutery is a word. Here is the definition.

“the technique or practice of responding to an accusation or difficult question by making a counter-accusation or raising a different issue.“

I thought the word was in common usage.

 

[Jonny]

That doesn’t excuse the animosity shown by some Remainers towards Leavers. I think the arrogance is shocking.

Like the largest pro-remain group being called 'Best for Britain'. Thinking that just because they are ^liberals^, that they know better. All I will say is that many so-called Economists, especially on the remain side, are actually philosophers whose mathematical ability is limited to picking and choosing wild hypotheses, worst-case predictions (passed off as being inevitable), concocted models, etc. and passing them of as evidence to suit their desired argument.

 

[AM9]

A new airport anywhere on the HS2 route should do, would be quicker to get into London than from Heathrow! Maybe a nice leafy part of the south midlands, preferably a Tory leave-voting MP's constituency. After all, we will need those runways for the new global Britain....

Wouldn't that fire up Joe Rukin?

 

[Howardh]

As someone said, after the referendum 52% got rounded up to 100% and 48% got rounded down to 0%
Doesn't excuse some leavers calling on remainers to leave the country

They are actually calling on business to up sticks and move to an EU country if they want "a presence" there...
https://www.conservativehome.com/pl...tposts-of-british-companies-after-brexit.html

Lord Ashcroft: Special Report – Malta makes a strong case to host the EU outposts of British companies after Brexit

As a hard-nosed, self-made businessman, I believe that Malta represents the best destination for ambitious UK firms that must have a post-Brexit presence in the European Union.
I should make my position abundantly clear: I have long been – and firmly remain – pro-Brexit, and the UK itself will be the best location for nearly all UK companies.
However, some UK firms have understandably decided, particularly in a period of uncertainty, that they will need a base in the EU in future, with Paris, Frankfurt and other large European cities the favoured locations for many such companies in a post-Brexit era that begins in March next year.

So, in other words, we won't be able to do business with the EU if we aren't actually physically IN the EU.

 

[mmh]

That doesn’t excuse the animosity shown by some Remainers towards Leavers. I think the arrogance is shocking.

And people couldn't resist being antagonistic when trying to defend the animosity with more "whataboutery":

Equally in the reverse direction. Leavers crowing such words as "we won, - get over it" have rather brought it on themselves. Despite many more understanding voices on the leaver side appealing for a more adult respect for the (very nearly) 50% of voters who didn't vote the same way as them, the baying continues and in some ways undermines much of the process that the leavers are struggling to enact.

"Crowing leavers", "brought it on themselves", "baying". Nice.

"More understanding voices on the leaver side appealing for a more adult respect" - that doesn't sound arrogant at all!

They have very much brought it on themselves — the more so every time May goes on about "the Brexit the British people voted for" whilst at the same time the majority of the emerging evidence shews how difficult Brexit is likely to be. There has been no sign of respect at all from the Leavers and their politicians for the very nearly 50% of those who vote who did not share their view, who are still not convinced by everything that has emerged over the last two years that Brexit can be anything but a huge mistake, and who do not share the rather jingoistic view that in the end "Europe" will have to give the Brexiteers all the concessions they expect.

I'm not jingoistic, thanks.

I notice both of you have said the same thing, that there's no respect for voters who voted a different way, which is nonsense. In what way is that true? I completely respect that different people have different opinions and looking at any situation and question may come to different conclusions about it. I'm not about to change my opinion to match yours, if that's what "respect" actually means when it comes to Brexit.

 

[Senex]

May at the same again, it would appear. Effectively "We want to walk out of your club, but we still want to be members of a number of your committees ..." Like deciding you want to get out of the local golf club but thinking you could still just stay on the Greens Committee and the Car-parking Committee. English arrogance and sense of entitlement, or just a consequence of the internal war in the Tory party and no real questioning of the Tory Europe "policy" from Labout?

 

[SteveP29]

May at the same again, it would appear. Effectively "We want to walk out of your club, but we still want to be members of a number of your committees ..." Like deciding you want to get out of the local golf club but thinking you could still just stay on the Greens Committee and the Car-parking Committee. English arrogance and sense of entitlement, or just a consequence of the internal war in the Tory party and no real questioning of the Tory Europe "policy" from Labout?

Last night on Question Time, we had the age old 'Europe needs us more than we need them' It still doesn't sink in, does it.
Good Evening Britain had Danny Dyer on who succinctly summed up what most non Tories thought about the whole situation by calling Cameron a tw*t twice.

 

[fowler9]

May at the same again, it would appear. Effectively "We want to walk out of your club, but we still want to be members of a number of your committees ..." Like deciding you want to get out of the local golf club but thinking you could still just stay on the Greens Committee and the Car-parking Committee. English arrogance and sense of entitlement, or just a consequence of the internal war in the Tory party and no real questioning of the Tory Europe "policy" from Labout?

True. English exceptionalism through and through.

 

[furnessvale]

Last night on Question Time, we had the age old 'Europe needs us more than we need them' It still doesn't sink in, does it.

Yes, amazing that remainers cannot accept the fact that, especially on security matters, that is actually the case.