A 2 car D train has higher capacity than a 2 car 483 to begin with - about 10% more - so how can you justify a 50% + increase ?
Do it now or you probably won't be able to do it in future - once all the D-stock is either 230s (etc) or scrapped that's your lot.
And we have...
- A significant material increase in service quality ("new" stock, smoother ride, tarted-up stations, memorable and more useful frequency....)
- A load of publicity about same
- An increase in the willingness of young people not to own cars
- An increase in British holidaying, even more so with Brexit
Also, 3 cars will be operationally easier than 2x2 as the guard[1] will be able to move throughout the train to do revenue etc.
[1] For an isolated line like this there is really no case at all for DOO. Door operation methods have options (I favour, as in most other locations, driver open and guard close/dispatch), but if you had a revenue squad you'd need *more* staff than you'd need guards flogging tickets, and you'd probably have more fare dodging then too.