Gareth Marston
Established Member
The date is already known; just not made public. And it won't be the very last day.
22nd one source 3rd week in May another...
The date is already known; just not made public. And it won't be the very last day.
If Skates is going to announce the winner to the Assembly it will have to be on 22nd, 23rd or 24th May as the Assembly is on half term recess the last week of May.22nd one source 3rd week in May another...
Can someone please explain this comment to me: Asked about the timescale, transport secretary Ken Skates said: “I can’t answer this because, if I do, it will reveal the technical solution that’s going to be utilised on that particular line.”
What on earth does he mean by 'technical solution'? Is he trying to get trams up to Ebbw Vale as well? Let's just turn the whole of South Wales into a tramway!
I would drop the 4th item from that list, particularly if it would help get a better service over the HOWL given the other three constraints you listed. Really, I think the intermediate stops between Crewe and Shreswbury, and responsibility for serving them, should be transfered to the Northern franchise or the West Midlands franchise.The HOWL is difficult to path due to a variety of constraints:
1) Pathing constraints on the mainline between Swansea & Llanelli
2) Pathing constrains on the mainline between Craven Arms & Shrewsbury
3) Location of passing loops on the HOWL
4) Desire to merge HOWL with Shrewsbury-Crewe services
Getting all of these to work together effectively is next to near impossible. Hence the long wait times at passing locations in the weekday timetable.
Maybe one of the bidders has proposed 3rd rail electrification and the other has proposed resignalling with something like ETCS? Or overhead electrification at 3rd rail voltage (which I think is also the system trams use). If a class 377 can run off both 750V DC 3rd rail and 25kv overhead, is there anything to stop the similar class 379s (which are apparently to be released from the Stansted Express) running off a mixture of 750V DC overhead and 25kv overhead?Can someone please explain this comment to me: Asked about the timescale, transport secretary Ken Skates said: “I can’t answer this because, if I do, it will reveal the technical solution that’s going to be utilised on that particular line.”
What on earth does he mean by 'technical solution'? Is he trying to get trams up to Ebbw Vale as well? Let's just turn the whole of South Wales into a tramway!
Trains that can run off both 1500V DC overhead and 25kV AC overhead have been seriously suggested for the new Tyne & Wear Metro trains, so it would seem do-able. Although the current draw at 750V might be excessive.If a class 377 can run off both 750V DC 3rd rail and 25kv overhead, is there anything to stop the similar class 379s (which are apparently to be released from the Stansted Express) running off a mixture of 750V DC overhead and 25kv overhead?
I heard 23rd, but I would certainly think it will be one of the three.If Skates is going to announce the winner to the Assembly it will have to be on 22nd, 23rd or 24th May as the Assembly is on half term recess the last week of May.
I would drop the 4th item from that list, particularly if it would help get a better service over the HOWL given the other three constraints you listed. Really, I think the intermediate stops between Crewe and Shreswbury, and responsibility for serving them, should be transfered to the Northern franchise or the West Midlands franchise.
Are those of us with weak bladders now supposed to develop an encyclopaedic knowledge of railway lavatories and their opening times? What happens if a train is stuck between stations or at one without facilities for an extended period?
It's a significant issue for some of us.
Of my reasons, perhaps the 'best' is that it would ensure the Wales & Borders Manchester-Cardiff/Swansea service is a fast service every hour, without the extended journey time from calling at Whitchurch and Nantwich every two hours. It would also therorectically allow more-even intervals between trains calling at the later two stations, by having the English TOC operate an hourly service. The need for alternate trains to call at Yorton etc. means that not every station on the route could have a pure-clockface hourly service, but if they chose to provide a clockface hourly service for Whitchurch the interval at Nantwich wouldn't be far off hourly (something like 58-62 minutes) since there is only one of the alternate-hour stops (Wrenbury) between them.Ah this old chestnut. I've heard it so many times, it's even been strongly rumoured that it'll happen - and yet nobody has ever given me a good reason why it should.
If it was done by extending some of the Birmingham-Shrewsbury stoppers through to Crewe that wouldn't be much hassle would it? I don't see why it would be inefficienct either especially once Birmingham-Shrewsbury is twice an hour, which should reduce any long waits at Shrewsbury between trips. And both Northern and the West Midlands franchise serve already Crewe, which might help with staff rosters (not trains admittedly, since I think everything they currently operate into Crewe is an EMU, but I could be wrong there).any tiny advantage you'd get from this service being run by a solely English franchise would be nothing compared to the inefficiencies and hassle you'd get if you took it away from its natural home, the Wales and Borders franchise.
Of my reasons, perhaps the 'best' is that it would ensure the Wales & Borders Manchester-Cardiff/Swansea service is a fast service every hour, without the extended journey time from calling at Whitchurch and Nantwich every two hours. It would also therorectically allow more-even intervals between trains calling at the later two stations, by having the English TOC operate an hourly service. The need for alternate trains to call at Yorton etc. means that not every station on the route could have a pure-clockface hourly service, but if they chose to provide a clockface hourly service for Whitchurch the interval at Nantwich wouldn't be far off hourly (something like 58-62 minutes) since there is only one of the alternate-hour stops (Wrenbury) between them.
If it was done by extending some of the Birmingham-Shrewsbury stoppers through to Crewe that wouldn't be much hassle would it? I don't see why it would be inefficienct either especially once Birmingham-Shrewsbury is twice an hour, which should reduce any long waits at Shrewsbury between trips. And both Northern and the West Midlands franchise serve already Crewe, which might help with staff rosters (not trains admittedly, since I think everything they currently operate into Crewe is an EMU, but I could be wrong there).
Who knows the Wales & Borders franchise could end up with CAF new build products. Perhaps the Mk.5 coaches could make an appearance.
With DRS still tendering for a further 10 diesel electric locomotives (placed in September 2017) and the flexible and cheaper leasing opportunities for new build rolling stock, who knows.
Possible but unlikely. The TPE Mark Vs have happened because of a mix of a factory without sufficient work, flexibility for if / when Transpennine electrification happens and potential 125mph running. CAFs 195s will be cheaper to run than Mark Vs and 3/4 coach sets would provide adequate capacity. If that isn't enough capacity there is no reason why 5 coach sets couldn't be built. 195s would be the obvious step up from 175s and are suitable for most of the W&B long distance services.
But all of that is irrelevant to the issue of which TOC runs the service, it could be done just as well by the Wales and Border franchise.
Whilst I appreciate the stops at Nantwich and Whitchurch on roughly every 2nd service on what's meant to be an inter regional express run are a bit annoying to some, there would be uproar if the passengers from those stations lost their direct service - especially as an hourly all stops service would be little improvement in frequency or regular interval frequency over the current mix of local and long distance services they currently enjoy.
It would cost a lot more to staff the service.
For starters, which ever TOC took the service on would require extra staff to run it, whilst the W&B franchise would find itself with too many. Normally when routes change hands you can TUPE staff across - but at ATW it's currently run by staff from 3 guards depots and 4 driver depots. All the crewcrew diagrams covering the route are interworked with other routes - it even has booked work for drivers from Cardiff! - so it's not simply a case of transferring something like 3 drivers and guards from W&B to whichever other franchise you transfer the work to.
Then there's the costs of training. Presumably if the West Midlands franchise were to work the route, you'd want either Crewe, Shrewsbury or both depots to work the line. Logical enough - but neither depot has any staff that sign the route, and in the case of Crewe none of the traincrew there sign any form of diesel traction either.
Tying it into the Birmingham-Shrewsbury service might seem like a good idea, but now you're wasting a 2,3 or even 4 car service on a route that currently runs a less then half full 153 most of the time.
You could argue that it saves on training costs at the W&B franchise as traincrew there won't need to sign that route anymore - except that they will. All 4 depots that sign the route work express services as well as the locals - so unless you did a big reshuffle of work, and/or sacrificed flexibility and knowledge of diversion routes, you're not going to save anything there.
Giving it to Northern gives even more problems. As well the training issues, you can't tie it into an existing Northern service, because even if you tried to use bi-modes and extended the Manchester - Crewe service down to Shrewsbury, you'd be told by Network Rail that it's impossible to path the service across the flat junctions on the WCML at Crewe. Plus, with their nearest depot being at Manchester, do you want to pay to taxi traincrew down to Shrewsbury for a 6am first departure?
Also, at present if there's any issues on the local, the express service picks up the stops. It's the same person in control who's responsible for both services, so it's organised with no hassle. Whilst coordination between TOCs is always possible, it's going to take longer, and W&B would have much less reason to pick up a 15 minute delay on their own service to make the extra stops that West Midlands should have been doing.
Now, I appreciate that most or indeed all of those issues I've raised are fixable, with enough time and money - and much bigger logistical challenges have been dealt with on the railway over the years . But that brings me back to my original question - what good reason have you got for going through all of that? What have you achieved at the end of it, and in what way is it better then the system that exists now?
Possible but unlikely. The TPE Mark Vs have happened because of a mix of a factory without sufficient work, flexibility for if / when Transpennine electrification happens and potential 125mph running. CAFs 195s will be cheaper to run than Mark Vs and 3/4 coach sets would provide adequate capacity. If that isn't enough capacity there is no reason why 5 coach sets couldn't be built. 195s would be the obvious step up from 175s and are suitable for most of the W&B long distance services.
Yes the CAF 195 will be cheaper than the Mk.5 on a like for like basis, but with the production line going to cease after the final TPE delivery discounts can be applied to the order to keep said line running.

This. Thank you for saving me the bother of having to write it!![]()
Fair point, if the Wales & Borders franchise were to take the stops out of the Manchesters and run extra Shrewsbury-Crewe shuttles (calling at Nantwich, Whitchurch and perhaps Wem) there would be little reason to move it to another franchise. It would then only be an issue when Cardiff Bay and Westminster 'squable' over control of the service; for example I seem to recall one of the consultations asking whether management of stations in England should be transfered to English TOCs despite being served mainly (if not exclusively) by the W&B franchise.But all of that is irrelevant to the issue of which TOC runs the service, it could be done just as well by the Wales and Border franchise.
Take a look at the services English TOCs run into Wales. Admittedly XC and GWR services do call at Severn Tunnel Junction, but aside from that most cross-border services are limited stop. Bridgend, Port Talbot and Neath might not be cities, but they are relatively significant population centres. In what way are fast services between Cardiff and Manchester missing out places like Nantwich (if they can be served by alternative local trains) different from Virgin missing out towns on the north Wales coast that are served by ATW?Why is it that this franchise and the posters seem desperate to cut out stations on the basis that they are in england?
I'd like to see the profit/loss with regards to the lines. It seems that its ok to run services into the citys of england but ignore the towns.
Maybe stopping them running at all into england would be better. Then at least you would see what an absolute sinkhole the franchise is. Or at least stop at the nearest stop near the border.
I thought the mark 5 order for TPE was more about wanting to get new trains into service as quickly as possible; the class 68s were already in existance (or at the very least under construction) and the relatively-simple coaching stock could be built faster than multiple units. Also, I believe five coaches is around about the threshold where LHCS becomes a cheaper option than units. If the new franchise wants fixed-formation trains of 5 or 6 coaches for its Manchester services, then mark 5s could well be the cheaper option. Less than 5 coaches though and I agree that units will likely be more cost-effective.The TPE Mark Vs have happened because of a mix of a factory without sufficient work, flexibility for if / when Transpennine electrification happens and potential 125mph running. CAFs 195s will be cheaper to run than Mark Vs and 3/4 coach sets would provide adequate capacity. If that isn't enough capacity there is no reason why 5 coach sets couldn't be built.
I don't agree with that bit though. In my view a 3-car 195 would be a downgrade compared to a nicely-refurbished 3-car 175 (they do need at least a light refurb; some of the seats have lost what little padding they had). The 175s have good legroom and I doubt you could acheive that with the 195's sububan door layout without reducing the number of seats and/or luggage space compared to a 175.195s would be the obvious step up from 175s and are suitable for most of the W&B long distance services.
I don't agree with that bit though. In my view a 3-car 195 would be a downgrade compared to a nicely-refurbished 3-car 175 (they do need at least a light refurb; some of the seats have lost what little padding they had). The 175s have good legroom and I doubt you could acheive that with the 195's sububan door layout without reducing the number of seats and/or luggage space compared to a 175.
That is my benchmark for this new franchise- if theirs any serious intention by the Welsh Government other than tokenism and flag waving to address deep seated issues then its capacity into and out of Manchester/Birmingham/Cardiff on long distance services and equal attention paid to all 3.
Don't WG want to run services to Bristol and Paddington? The Birmingham and Manchester routes are are a great opportunity to show how they could do the job better than the DfT / First.
I heard that WG wanted to take over the Paddington services and I don't think it is the dreadful idea that people in this forum say it is. The reason (which for reasons of national pride will probably not be mentioned by Cardiff) is that it is much more in the interests of a peripheral economy to maintain good connections to the core economy than it is the other way round!
On a purely logical basis I'd agree with you - but I do wonder if normal logic will apply in this franchise. In other words, will Cardiff Bay deem 195s acceptable, or will they want something more Intercity in style? And do bear in mind, they care enough about that kind of thing to subsidise running a MKIII set on one round trip to Holyhead per day - a set that will need either replacement or a large amount of work doing to be allowed to be used going forwards. For that reason, and because of.......
.....this as well, it wouldn't surprise me all that much if MK5s were to feature, including a buffet car or two to replace Gerald. If that were to happen, I'm sure the bidders would also be tempted by the improvements in reliability and fuel economy offered by switching from 67s to 68s. I would also have thought that MK5s would be available sooner then 195s, given there are fewer customers waiting for them? And we all know that between overcrowding and PRM deadlines, the franchise needs new stock asap.
But then I might be biased - I know which future design I'd rather work on![]()
I thought the mark 5 order for TPE was more about wanting to get new trains into service as quickly as possible; the class 68s were already in existance (or at the very least under construction) and the relatively-simple coaching stock could be built faster than multiple units. Also, I believe five coaches is around about the threshold where LHCS becomes a cheaper option than units. If the new franchise wants fixed-formation trains of 5 or 6 coaches for its Manchester services, then mark 5s could well be the cheaper option. Less than 5 coaches though and I agree that units will likely be more cost-effective.
I don't agree with that bit though. In my view a 3-car 195 would be a downgrade compared to a nicely-refurbished 3-car 175 (they do need at least a light refurb; some of the seats have lost what little padding they had). The 175s have good legroom and I doubt you could acheive that with the 195's sububan door layout without reducing the number of seats and/or luggage space compared to a 175.
The 175's are seriously behind the game in terms of provision of power points for a long distance service stock and also the 2 car units are unsuitable for operating into/out of major conurbations on their own.
Don't WG want to run services to Bristol and Paddington? The Birmingham and Manchester routes are are a great opportunity to show how they could do the job better than the DfT / First.
Though WG have historically been more interested in linking North Wales to Cardiff than to Manchester or Liverpool with which it has stronger economic ties.
True, but in many ways this proves my point because Gerald is a service concocted in Cardiff which wanted Wales to to be seen as an integrated nation. North Wales, being the more peripheral area of the two, would be more concerned with improving connections to the economically active places in Northwest England.
That is why I feel Cardiff has a right to manage its GWML services. Because Cardiff is more economically dependent on good connectivity to London than London is on good connectivity to Cardiff.
True, but in many ways this proves my point because Gerald is a service concocted in Cardiff which wanted Wales to to be seen as an integrated nation. North Wales, being the more peripheral area of the two, would be more concerned with improving connections to the economically active places in Northwest England.
That is why I feel Cardiff has a right to manage its GWML services. Because Cardiff is more economically dependent on good connectivity to London than London is on good connectivity to Cardiff.