Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Gareth Marston]

But it begs the Q yet again, if orders for new trains have been placed by Welsh Govt / TfW, why keep it secret?
Are these trains being built under armed guard somewhere?
Welsh Govt needs to release you cannot award a rail franchise using the same procurement process that you do for an NHS software contract, yet that is what it has done.

I suspect they have someone lined up (couldn't possibly imagine where - Newport cough cough) and the speed the order will be placed after the franchise is awarded will be quick. But i still wont expect anything off the production line to save their bacon in time.

The only cascaded possibility are the Greater Anglia 156/170 fleets.

 

[Gareth Marston]

However, unfortunately for the politicians having to defend those decisions, the chaos of bussing everyone up and down the A470 (or most likely people driving their own cars, exacerbating the congestion still further) will be happening in the run up to and during the Assembly elections of May 2021. A perfect storm.

Solves one "face" problem by creating another - its classic civil service

 

[krus_aragon]

I do love this line:

"By 2020, new trains will be being introduced across the Wales and Borders rail network."

It's 1st May, not 1st April, right?

Could they be playing the "new to the franchise, but not necessarily new-build" card, thinking of some off-lease stock from elsewhere?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Could they be playing the "new to the franchise, but not necessarily new-build" card, thinking of some off-lease stock from elsewhere?

Greater Anglia 156/170 fleet is really your only choice.

 

[Dai Corner]

Couldn't a new factory with no (known!) existing orders churn out enough DMUs of an existing design to replace all/most of the Pacers between June this year and December next year?

Once all the Pacers had gone they'd start building the trams for the core Valley Lines and as these entered service the nearly new DMUs could be cascaded to other routes in place of 150s. Then it would back to building DMUs to replace the remaining 150s.

Then we could start thinking about the 158s and 175s.

 

[Llanigraham]

Here's a civil service mentality solution for you.

Run Pacers as long as possible then close all the lines north of Radyr for conversion to Light Rail whilst the CAF plant in Newport (procured within the rules of course!) builds the Light Rail stock.

Hopefully a world class bus operator will be on hand to transport folk to work in Cardiff down the non congested A470

Its all OK as the closure was always part of the process to transform Core Valley Lines into the worlds greatest urban transit system and everything will be PRM Compliant.

You missed out the conversion of one lane of the A470 into a Bus lane!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The only new designs committed to the GB network are CAF 195 DMU and Stadler 755 bi-mode.
Both have yet to go through type approval and acceptance, and won't roll out in service much before the end of the year.
CAF has an order for similar trains for WMT.
Then there's the conversions: Vivarail's 230 and Porterbook's 769.
They still have to gain type approval, and neither has been proved in customer service.
The clock is against WG to have a volume solution in 20 months.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Couldn't a new factory with no (known!) existing orders churn out enough DMUs of an existing design to replace all/most of the Pacers between June this year and December next year?

Once all the Pacers had gone they'd start building the trams for the core Valley Lines and as these entered service the nearly new DMUs could be cascaded to other routes in place of 150s. Then it would back to building DMUs to replace the remaining 150s.

Then we could start thinking about the 158s and 175s.

The Newport CAF plant is suppose to be opened in "autumn 2018" and fully operational in 2019. Which is all a little convenient however if the Welsh Government has done any "secret deals" then I would imagine that EU procurement rules will have to have been bent beyond belief and the other rolling stock manufacturers Lawyers will be sharpening their wallets.

 

[craigybagel]

Couldn't a new factory with no (known!) existing orders churn out enough DMUs of an existing design to replace all/most of the Pacers between June this year and December next year?

Once all the Pacers had gone they'd start building the trams for the core Valley Lines and as these entered service the nearly new DMUs could be cascaded to other routes in place of 150s. Then it would back to building DMUs to replace the remaining 150s.

Then we could start thinking about the 158s and 175s.

None of the existing designs meet the current regulations, especially with regards to emissions. CAF's 195 does, but as has been pointed out it's still got to gain approval, and in any case it already has an order book from Northern and WMT to get through. So no, there is no combination out there of an existing design that could get churned out rapidly. I suspect that's the big brick wall the Welsh assembly are running head first into but haven't lifted their heads up long enough to see.....

 

[Dai Corner]

That's knocked that idea on the head then!

Thanks all for the explanations.

 

[daikilo]

None of the existing designs meet the current regulations, especially with regards to emissions. CAF's 195 does, but as has been pointed out it's still got to gain approval, and in any case it already has an order book from Northern and WMT to get through. So no, there is no combination out there of an existing design that could get churned out rapidly. I suspect that's the big brick wall the Welsh assembly are running head first into but haven't lifted their heads up long enough to see.....

Whilst I think you are right about the brick wall and maybe that other stock bar the 195 and 755 are not compliant, I do wonder whether other recent designs could be made compliant, particularly on emissions where kits do exist to upgrade engines. Are there any other compliance issues which cannot be met by updating? As far as I can see, there are DMUs being delivered in Europe albeit with a loading gauge greater than that of the UK.

 

[gareth950]

Solves one "face" problem by creating another - its classic civil service

Not forgetting the planned 2022 General Election as well, when the chaos on the Valleys will still be on-going or illegal / semi-legal Pacers will still be running. Welsh Labour are not doing the Labour cause for being competent in running the rail network any favours.

 

[Del1977]

Not forgetting the planned 2022 General Election as well, when the chaos on the Valleys will still be on-going or illegal Pacers will still be running. Welsh Labour are not doing the Labour cause for being competent in running the rail network any favours.

Welsh Labour will not lose seats even if there is a complete fiasco on the Valley Lines. There's only two seats that are in play: Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan. Labour/Tory marginal, Tory/Labour marginal.

I just don't think there's enough voters who would fall within all three of these categories: Swing voters, users of the Valley Lines AND prepared to change their vote based on public transport.

 

[gareth950]

Welsh Labour will not lose seats even if there is a complete fiasco on the Valley Lines. There's only two seats that are in play: Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan. Labour/Tory marginal, Tory/Labour marginal.

I just don't think there's enough voters who would fall within all three of these categories: Swing voters, users of the Valley Lines AND prepared to change their vote based on public transport.

How about everyone who works in Cardiff being stuck in daily car parks on the A470 because everyone has been forced into their car? It's not just rail users who will be affected by closure of the Valley lines and bustitution.

 

[Del1977]

How about everyone who works in Cardiff being stuck in daily car parks on the A470 because everyone has been forced into their car? It's not just rail users who will be affected by closure of the Valley lines and bustitution.

Public transport or the roads in general is never a big issue for voters. You'll be lucky if it's a couple of hundred voters per constituency who will change their vote in a national election because of a Valley lines fiasco or A470 congestion. And some may even think it's Westminster to blame, and blame the Tories, so I wouldn't even say with certainty that even for those who are very angry, that it's 100% loss for Labour.

Labour won't lose constituency seats even if the lines were closed down for good. The majorities are too large.

 

[Mollman]

Which is all a little convenient however if the Welsh Government has done any "secret deals" then I would imagine that EU procurement rules will have to have been bent beyond belief and the other rolling stock manufacturers Lawyers will be sharpening their wallets.

My thoughts exactly - they can't have done a secret order already because there would have to be an OJEU notice as I'm not sure you would get much for £181k. If they make the winning bidder order to get around EU rules then there would no doubt be a legal challenge by the likes of Bombardier. Perhaps they are referring to IEPs on GWR services, after all that's what the DfT tends to do.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

My thoughts exactly - they can't have done a secret order already because there would have to be an OJEU notice as I'm not sure you would get much for £181k. If they make the winning bidder order to get around EU rules then there would no doubt be a legal challenge by the likes of Bombardier. Perhaps they are referring to IEPs on GWR services, after all that's what the DfT tends to do.

WG did do an OJEU notice for the current procurement (expressions of interest for partner + franchise + metro delivery).
It was only a few sentences, and not at all prescriptive, but £mega and 15 years duration came into it.
It was competitive, hence the four bids (two remaining).
The bidders could have made rolling stock/supplier recommendations which they are now following up with WG.
Private bidders don't have to raise separate OJEU entries for rolling stock purchase.

 

[Gareth Marston]

You missed out the conversion of one lane of the A470 into a Bus lane!

It would be a World Class bus lane though!

 

[Gareth Marston]

WG did do an OJEU notice for the current procurement (expressions of interest for partner + franchise + metro delivery).
It was only a few sentences, and not at all prescriptive, but £mega and 15 years duration came into it.
It was competitive, hence the four bids (two remaining).
The bidders could have made rolling stock/supplier recommendations which they are now following up with WG.
Private bidders don't have to raise separate OJEU entries for rolling stock purchase.

Can't see what the payback on only 15 years for an operator would be unless WG guaranteed it meaning their paying over the odds for stock.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Public transport or the roads in general is never a big issue for voters. You'll be lucky if it's a couple of hundred voters per constituency who will change their vote in a national election because of a Valley lines fiasco or A470 congestion. And some may even think it's Westminster to blame, and blame the Tories, so I wouldn't even say with certainty that even for those who are very angry, that it's 100% loss for Labour.

Labour won't lose constituency seats even if the lines were closed down for good. The majorities are too large.

It could tip the A470 over to gridlock point it would be news and bad news at that and constant bad news at that. The Assembly would be where they would most feel it.

 

[gareth950]

It could tip the A470 over to gridlock point it would be news and bad news at that and constant bad news at that. The Assembly would be where they would most feel it.

That was my point exactly. All major trunk routes north of Cardiff from the heads of the Valleys down brought to a standstill for 2 - 3 years because of closing down the Valley lines for conversion, during two vital election periods. Because if the electrification, whether HR or LR, is not complete by 2023, Welsh Govt lose the EU funding for it.

 

[CardiffKid]

Further to the discussion about toilets on pacers and them needing to be compliment with PRM regulations in a little over 18 months this is a transcript from questions in the Assembly yesterday (my emphasis on the underlining) :



Adam Price: Cabinet Secretary, this month's edition of Modern Railways magazine, which I know is required reading material for all Assembly Members, reported that future Valleys lines trains will no longer offer toilets on board for passengers. I'd like you to confirm whether or not this is the case. But, before you do that, I'd like to point out that there are two aspects to this question, really.51

In the short-term, it's suggested that, in order to avoid failing accessibility requirements and disability legislation, instead of proactively upgrading the existing Pacer stock to comply with the persons of reduced mobility specifications, the Welsh Government has opted to lock the toilets instead. Now, you've denied that, but I'd like you to set out in detail how you plan to make the Pacer trains compliant with the legislation.52

The second element, looking to the future, is that it's widely believed that light rail trains, which do not normally include toilets, are being considered for some of the Valleys lines as part of the development of the south Wales metro. Can you confirm that it's the bidding companies that will decide whether or not toilets will be provided on board these new trains? As toilets take up significant space, which impacts on revenues, it doesn't take an expert, perhaps, to guess what their recommendations may be.


Ken Skates: Can assure the Member that doors will not be locked on trains to get around regulations that require operators to provide facilities for people of limited mobility. The bidders in the procurement exercise have been challenged with demonstrating how they will ensure that rolling stock complies with the regulations that are coming into force shortly, and it will require them to do that without the locking of any doors whatsoever.

Equally, as part of the procurement exercise, we undertook a number of consultations with passengers and the wider public to ascertain exactly what it was that people prioritised when they were considering whether or not to use railways. Public transport and the quality of rolling stock were amongst the most important and significant factors in determining whether to use the train or their own private car. And so, as a consequence, this has become one of the primary areas of concern during the procurement process. We've required the bidders to demonstrate how they will ensure that there are toilet facilities on board trains.



Now, either Ken Skates is lying, doesn't have a clue what he's talking about or something quite magical is about to happen either with the existing rolling stock or new rolling stock appearing out of seemingly thin air.

 

[Philip]

Class 195s may be a good thing even for the long distance services from Manchester; if Northern don't have many problems bringing them into service and if doubling them up proves to be easy. A mixed fleet of two and three car trains with the option to double up the busier services without causing problems with the platform length would provide good flexibility.

I also think Manchester-South Wales would benefit more from a commuter door arrangement, since the route is more of a series of medium-distance interurban/regional express journeys, rather than long distance intercity journeys. The dwell time would be reduced a fair bit at Crewe and Shrewsbury, compared to what it is with 175s.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Further to the discussion about toilets on pacers and them needing to be compliment with PRM regulations in a little over 18 months this is a transcript from questions in the Assembly yesterday (my emphasis on the underlining) :



Adam Price: Cabinet Secretary, this month's edition of Modern Railways magazine, which I know is required reading material for all Assembly Members, reported that future Valleys lines trains will no longer offer toilets on board for passengers. I'd like you to confirm whether or not this is the case. But, before you do that, I'd like to point out that there are two aspects to this question, really.51

In the short-term, it's suggested that, in order to avoid failing accessibility requirements and disability legislation, instead of proactively upgrading the existing Pacer stock to comply with the persons of reduced mobility specifications, the Welsh Government has opted to lock the toilets instead. Now, you've denied that, but I'd like you to set out in detail how you plan to make the Pacer trains compliant with the legislation.52

The second element, looking to the future, is that it's widely believed that light rail trains, which do not normally include toilets, are being considered for some of the Valleys lines as part of the development of the south Wales metro. Can you confirm that it's the bidding companies that will decide whether or not toilets will be provided on board these new trains? As toilets take up significant space, which impacts on revenues, it doesn't take an expert, perhaps, to guess what their recommendations may be.


Ken Skates: Can assure the Member that doors will not be locked on trains to get around regulations that require operators to provide facilities for people of limited mobility. The bidders in the procurement exercise have been challenged with demonstrating how they will ensure that rolling stock complies with the regulations that are coming into force shortly, and it will require them to do that without the locking of any doors whatsoever.

Equally, as part of the procurement exercise, we undertook a number of consultations with passengers and the wider public to ascertain exactly what it was that people prioritised when they were considering whether or not to use railways. Public transport and the quality of rolling stock were amongst the most important and significant factors in determining whether to use the train or their own private car. And so, as a consequence, this has become one of the primary areas of concern during the procurement process. We've required the bidders to demonstrate how they will ensure that there are toilet facilities on board trains.



Now, either Ken Skates is lying, doesn't have a clue what he's talking about or something quite magical is about to happen either with the existing rolling stock or new rolling stock appearing out of seemingly thin air.

I think we can see what the line to take is- its the new operators fault- they've written it in to the ITT attempting to shovel the problem at the bidders. Welsh Government are trying to wash their hands of it in advance though they know full well that the bidders haven't got a cat in hell's chance of of complying due to lead times on rolling stock orders and / or relying on cascades from other areas.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Class 195s may be a good thing even for the long distance services from Manchester; if Northern don't have many problems bringing them into service and if doubling them up proves to be easy. A mixed fleet of two and three car trains with the option to double up the busier services without causing problems with the platform length would provide good flexibility.

I also think Manchester-South Wales would benefit more from a commuter door arrangement, since the route is more of a series of medium-distance interurban/regional express journeys, rather than long distance intercity journeys. The dwell time would be reduced a fair bit at Crewe and Shrewsbury, compared to what it is with 175s.

4 car Class 185's on Manchester to Swansea - hourly service needs 9 diagrams
2* car Class 185's on Crewe to Cardiff - hourly needs 6 diagrams with scope for peak strengthening.

22 x 3 Car 185's coming off lease and you keep them serviced @ Ardwick.
* 1st class removed.

 

[Philip]

4 car Class 185's on Manchester to Swansea - hourly service needs 9 diagrams
2* car Class 185's on Crewe to Cardiff - hourly needs 6 diagrams with scope for peak strengthening.

22 x 3 Car 185's coming off lease and you keep them serviced @ Ardwick.
* 1st class removed.

I thought that arrangement would work well too, but apparently there would be too many technical issues in changing the formation of 185s?

 

[Gareth Marston]

I thought that arrangement would work well too, but apparently there would be too many technical issues in changing the formation of 185s?

Ive heard that rumored to - however it does look like the TPE Mk5 fleet (13 sets) will be in service to allow the release of some of the Cass 185's to W & B in 2019. However you still cant make 12/13 units do enough of a cascade to replace 30 Pacers.......

 

[gareth950]

I think we can see what the line to take is- its the new operators fault- they've written it in to the ITT attempting to shovel the problem at the bidders. Welsh Government are trying to wash their hands of it in advance though they know full well that the bidders haven't got a cat in hell's chance of of complying due to lead times on rolling stock orders and / or relying on cascades from other areas.

He also completely avoided the question about light rail trams being introduced on the Valleys and not having toilets. To be expected.
He didn't set out in detail how Pacers will be made compliant. To be expected.
More meaningless, empty waffle from Skates.

 

[Gareth Marston]

He also completely avoided the question about light rail trams being introduced on the Valleys and not having toilets. To be expected.
He didn't set out in detail how Pacers will be made compliant. To be expected.
More meaningless, empty waffle from Skates.

and the "end of May" is now getting even closer.....

 

[HH]

Interesting. I wonder if that means they will refurbish the pacers and 153s by 2020 or will have new trains running by 2020.

Both equally as unlikely.

There will be some refurbished trains "new" to Wales, I suspect. Just enough to say it's started...