Northern's Problems in the North West

[hwl]

Do let us know what you find. In the meantime consider that those who keep track of such things often tell us here that 80% of PTI incidents which require investiagtion by the RAIB involve DOO services in spite of forming less than 40% of all services operated. Even allowing for subjective use of statistics this tells a story all by itself and that's before you allow for the greater likelihood of such incidents going unreported when single-crewed services are involved. It's an issue that is more complicated than many are prepared to admit.

RAIB don't report in to all incidents - one of the reasons to investigate is if new lessons can be learn't which of often true where there are more systems or automation that might need to be revised to prevent recurrence.

 

[Bungle965]

I see the 03:38 Liverpool to Manchester Airport service is cancelled tomorrow morning, no mention of any replacement bus being organised and the following train almost 2 hours later - I can see some people missing check-in for the early departures from the airport.

Disappeared off the cancellation list now.
Sam

 

[Loop & Link]

Disappeared off the cancellation list now.
Sam

Probably covered by the Night Turn Ferry Driver, who brings the stocks on/off Allerton, and stocks shuffled round to come off at different times.

 

[Red Devil]

10 cancellations already this morning to come and it's only 6.00 am

 

[Bovverboy]

10 cancellations already this morning to come and it's only 6.00 am

I notice that these cancellations don't preclude routes being described as having a good service.

 

[Loop & Link]

The algorithm from Tyrell to JourneyCheck & rainbow boards, won’t change the ‘Good Service to Minor/Major Disruption’ unless there’s a certain amount of cancellations in a certain amount of time, or unless there’s a blanket route disruption message sent out which will change the rainbow boards.

 

[Joseph_Locke]

Do let us know what you find. In the meantime consider that those who keep track of such things often tell us here that 80% of PTI incidents which require investiagtion by the RAIB involve DOO services in spite of forming less than 40% of all services operated. Even allowing for subjective use of statistics this tells a story all by itself and that's before you allow for the greater likelihood of such incidents going unreported when single-crewed services are involved. It's an issue that is more complicated than many are prepared to admit.

Now who's playing statistics? 40% or train services isn't necessarily 40% of all passenger journeys.

 

[northwichcat]

Now who's playing statistics? 40% or train services isn't necessarily 40% of all passenger journeys.

Indeed. Some of the guard operated services are single 153s while there's long commuter trains in and out of London operating as DOO. If the London Overground is included in that stat then the number of journeys made on guard operated trains would be significantly less than those on DOO trains.

 

[driver_m]

As some who studied statistics, using stats in a debate won't answer anyones question as they will interpret it in the way they want to. As was said to me in my first lesson. "A coin toss is 50-50. Or is it?". In my final lesson, the tutor mentioned if we could answer that same question. Not much agreement in the answer at the end. So make of that, what you will...

Has to be said though, the whole issue strikes of huge management incompetence that it still can't harmonise, it still can't get its training right, it can't keep hold of its drivers, it can't even get one of its senior managers to toe the line on social media which will no doubt be raising eyebrows at management level in other companies. After all, it's not as if no other companies have had to harmonise, such as XC/Central in the past. It would be very interesting to hear the opinion of high up management at other companies what they think of the mess at Northern. To do training without a rest day agreement to me would seem impossible, even at a smaller scale, not at the scale of northern changes.

 

[Bungle965]

Oh what would you know, the rest of this evenings Windermere-Oxenholme services have gone down the drain.
The 22:00 Manchester Airport to Barrow has also been cancelled throughout, with no information on their Journey Check page for alternative arrangements.
All down to a shortage of drivers again.
Sam

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Now who's playing statistics? 40% or train services isn't necessarily 40% of all passenger journeys.

I totally agree! I was making the point that it isn't wise for anyone to use these statistics on either side of the argument. But it does suggest a mismatch of some sort which is worthy of examination. An awful lot has changed since DOO first appeared on the national network: a root and branch review of the concept would clarify certain issues and could go a long way towards both resolving current points of contention and provide a solid framework going forward. But just as we conclude here that a revision to the fares system would create both winners and losers, so too would a review of DOO.

 

[Red Devil]

Until a RDW agreement is achieved this sorry situation will continue and on some days be worse than today. Combine that with strike days and Lime St shutdown and the need for 323 training at Liverpool and 331 training a perfect storm is brewing.

 

[Starmill]

After all, it's not as if no other companies have had to harmonise, such as XC/Central in the past.

I wonder how successful harmonisation at CrossCountry was? How do XC's staff costs now compare with during Central Trains / Virgin CrossCountry days, and with Northern? And did they harmonise everyone, or just drivers? How succesful at this could Northern realistically be at the moment?

 

[Bovverboy]

Red Devil said:↑
10 cancellations already this morning to come and it's only 6.00 am

Bovverboy said:
I notice that these cancellations don't preclude routes being described as having a good service.

The algorithm from Tyrell to JourneyCheck & rainbow boards, won’t change the ‘Good Service to Minor/Major Disruption’ unless there’s a certain amount of cancellations in a certain amount of time, or unless there’s a blanket route disruption message sent out which will change the rainbow boards.

I gather that there's considerable scope for variations in opinion in respect of what constitutes a 'good service'.

 

[Loop & Link]

For example, on JourneyCheck - 1 cancellation on a line that has a service every 2 hours, may change the rainbow boards to ‘Minor Disruption’ 1 or 2 cancellations on a line that has a frequent service (every 15 or 30 minutes) would still show ‘Good Service’ however, this can be manually overriden on the PIDD dashboard.

 

[30907]

I see, to my surprise, there are 2 return trains from Preston via Clitheroe today, a Sunday, to Hellifield . The 2nd and last return leaves Hellifield at 1607 which does not allow much time should you want a day out in the Dales, maybe to Ribblehead. I wish the service could run every day, not just a Sunday.It seems from timetable change on 20th May there is only 1 return , leaving Hellifield for BPN at 2047 !
I assume its down to the availability of DMUS. Will it be a better service in years to come when Northern gets more trains ?

Winter Sunday service has run like that for several years.

 

[30907]

I see, to my surprise, there are 2 return trains from Preston via Clitheroe today, a Sunday, to Hellifield . The 2nd and last return leaves Hellifield at 1607 which does not allow much time should you want a day out in the Dales, maybe to Ribblehead. I wish the service could run every day, not just a Sunday.It seems from timetable change on 20th May there is only 1 return , leaving Hellifield for BPN at 2047 !
I assume its down to the availability of DMUS. Will it be a better service in years to come when Northern gets more trains ?

Winter service has been like that for some years.
Summer service at 1937 is from memory later than traditional but presumably down to new S and C timetable.

 

[northernchris]

Until a RDW agreement is achieved this sorry situation will continue and on some days be worse than today. Combine that with strike days and Lime St shutdown and the need for 323 training at Liverpool and 331 training a perfect storm is brewing.

If driver training wasn't an issue would Northern have enough drivers to deliver the service? When it comes to training on 331s some depots such as Leeds and Piccadilly may have some slack in driver availability as I'm assuming from May 20th both locations will have enough drivers available for what was proposed to be the new timetable

 

[randyrippley]

I see, to my surprise, there are 2 return trains from Preston via Clitheroe today, a Sunday, to Hellifield . The 2nd and last return leaves Hellifield at 1607 which does not allow much time should you want a day out in the Dales, maybe to Ribblehead. I wish the service could run every day, not just a Sunday.It seems from timetable change on 20th May there is only 1 return , leaving Hellifield for BPN at 2047 !
I assume its down to the availability of DMUS. Will it be a better service in years to come when Northern gets more trains ?

Those are not part of the Northern franchise: they're effectively private charters hired by Dalesrail, but open to all.
The actual timetable is at https://www.communityraillancashire.co.uk/dalesrail-timetable/
The return from Hellifield will be at 19:37

 

[childwallblues]

Those are not part of the Northern franchise: they're effectively private charters hired by Dalesrail, but open to all.
The actual timetable is at https://www.communityraillancashire.co.uk/dalesrail-timetable/
The return from Hellifield will be at 19:37

If driver training wasn't an issue would Northern have enough drivers to deliver the service? When it comes to training on 331s some depots such as Leeds and Piccadilly may have some slack in driver availability as I'm assuming from May 20th both locations will have enough drivers available for what was proposed to be the new timetable

Driver training from Preston to Blackpool on 319s involves five trips.

 

[TrW]

Great start to today

2J40 0605 Preston to Manchester Victoria
Northern service
This service was cancelled throughout due to an issue with the train crew (TG).

2J41 0650 Preston to Manchester Victoria
Northern service
This service was cancelled throughout due to an issue with the train crew (TG).

 

[Bovverboy]

Loop & Link said
The algorithm from Tyrell to JourneyCheck & rainbow boards, won’t change the ‘Good Service to Minor/Major Disruption’ unless there’s a certain amount of cancellations in a certain amount of time, or unless there’s a blanket route disruption message sent out which will change the rainbow boards.

For example, on JourneyCheck - 1 cancellation on a line that has a service every 2 hours, may change the rainbow boards to ‘Minor Disruption’ 1 or 2 cancellations on a line that has a frequent service (every 15 or 30 minutes) would still show ‘Good Service’ however, this can be manually overriden on the PIDD dashboard.

My own minimum criteria for classing a line as having a 'Good Service' would be no cancellations, no short-forming, and reasonable punctuality.

 

[Mathew S]

My own minimum criteria for classing a line as having a 'Good Service' would be no cancellations, no short-forming, and reasonable punctuality.

I think context here is all important.

For example, during the day there are five or six trains per hour on the route i regularly use (Wigan - Manchester) a cancellation of one, or even two, of those services doesn't usually cause any issues, and so wouldn't detract from it being a good, although imperfect, service. It's one of the many advantages of having what is effectively a walk-up-and-go service, that the odd screw-up isn't a major issue.

That said, if I'm travelling from Pemberton - Manchester, which I do when my work times allow, a single cancellation means a two hour gap in service, so that's a different situation altogether.

 

[nr758123]

I gather that there's considerable scope for variations in opinion in respect of what constitutes a 'good service'.

One evening last week, everything on Stalybridge-Huddersfield was cancelled after 7pm (all attributed to driver shortage). Throughout that evening Stalybridge-Huddersfield was showing as “good service” on the rainbow boards. Hard to take the rainbow boards seriously.

 

[nr758123]

I think context here is all important.

For example, during the day there are five or six trains per hour on the route i regularly use (Wigan - Manchester) a cancellation of one, or even two, of those services doesn't usually cause any issues, and so wouldn't detract from it being a good, although imperfect, service. It's one of the many advantages of having what is effectively a walk-up-and-go service, that the odd screw-up isn't a major issue.

That said, if I'm travelling from Pemberton - Manchester, which I do when my work times allow, a single cancellation means a two hour gap in service, so that's a different situation altogether.

It’s as if Northern are hoping they will miraculously have enough drivers every day, and then when it doesn’t happen someone’s trains get cancelled at fairly short notice.

Windermere appears to have been particularly badly hit.

It should be obvious by now that the driver shortage isn’t going to be overcome any time soon, and once that’s understood and accepted Northern need to work out how, with the resources they have, they can minimise the disruption to passengers. So, for example, thinning out a half-hourly service results in far less inconvenience than multiple cancellations on an hourly service. Giving passengers advance notice of where cancellations will occur should also be a priority.

 

[Bovverboy]

It’s as if Northern are hoping they will miraculously have enough drivers every day, and then when it doesn’t happen someone’s trains get cancelled at fairly short notice.

Windermere appears to have been particularly badly hit.

It should be obvious by now that the driver shortage isn’t going to be overcome any time soon, and once that’s understood and accepted Northern need to work out how, with the resources they have, they can minimise the disruption to passengers. So, for example, thinning out a half-hourly service results in far less inconvenience than multiple cancellations on an hourly service. Giving passengers advance notice of where cancellations will occur should also be a priority.

An advantage of adopting an emergency timetable would be that it would potentially make optimum use of available rolling stock, since there would be no need to have stock sat around with no driver.

One thing I find quite hypocritical is the way new lines can be built (e.g. Tweedbank, and the Todmorden curve) without much thought for from where the rolling stock is going to come - short-form trains somewhere else, I presume that that's the thinking. I'm sure that it takes a sight longer for a line to be planned and built than it does to procure rolling stock, so what's wrong with ordering some stock to run on these new lines? No doubt someone will say, we're not too sure how much stock we'll need, well I say exaggerate the order, there's nothing lost since there is sufficient stock coming to the end of its life anyway.

 

[The_Engineer]

No doubt someone will say, we're not too sure how much stock we'll need, well I say exaggerate the order, there's nothing lost since there is sufficient stock coming to the end of its life anyway.

That's not how commercial rolling stock companies think (or work). Diesel stock is seen as a very risky investment now so, unless they can see longevity of leasing going forwards, it is too risky for investment.

 

[Bovverboy]

That's not how commercial rolling stock companies think (or work). Diesel stock is seen as a very risky investment now so, unless they can see longevity of leasing going forwards, it is too risky for investment.

Plenty of DMUs seem to have been ordered recently. In any case, if ordering new DMUs were indeed too risky, what's the justification for opening new lines?

 

[The_Engineer]

Plenty of DMUs seem to have been ordered recently. In any case, if ordering new DMUs were indeed too risky, what's the justification for opening new lines?

Those orders are for good sized fleets with prospect of return on investment. Building new DMUs on speculation, without a firm leasing prospect, as you were suggesting IS too risky.

 

[Red Devil]

15 more cancellations to come this morning, including some very busy commuter trains. As I previously said expect this everyday now until the end of August and end of summer leave.