Great Northern and Thameslink May 18 service changes

[sefton]

I can see customers at Biggleswade being happy when they see the timetable which has virtually all the fast trains stopping there in the morning, only to have their hopes dashed when the trains arrive as there won't be any seats for them.

So will they choose to stand for 36 minutes or sit (on a horrible 700) for 44?

 

[holmestm]

Another poster - JamieP has posted a pdf of the GN Mainline May Timetable (Monday to Fridays) to the class 365 storage thread on the rolling stock board - this is the link: https://www.railforums.co.uk/attachments/may-2018-gn-monday-to-friday-mainline-pdf.44057/ . It shows booked rolling stock type, but covers only the 'mainline' services and not the Metro services (that is Moorgates and King's Cross to Welwyn Garden City Semi fasts).

Interesting that the attachment shows the 1812 KGX to KLN decoupling I assume at CBG and going from 3x3871 to 2x3871. This is exactly what the current 1814 does except it splits at Royston with the rear set serving the villages of Meldreth, Foxton and Shepreth.

So the decision to axe this service isn't down to lack of rolling stock. Any insight as to why they have, after some 10 years of providing this service they have decided to remove it?

 

[bramling]

Interesting that the attachment shows the 1812 KGX to KLN decoupling I assume at CBG and going from 3x3871 to 2x3871. This is exactly what the current 1814 does except it splits at Royston with the rear set serving the villages of Meldreth, Foxton and Shepreth.

So the decision to axe this service isn't down to lack of rolling stock. Any insight as to why they have, after some 10 years of providing this service they have decided to remove it?

I think people need to realise this is a completely fresh timetable written from scratch, therefore *every* service has been axed, and what we see is completely new. Maybe the equivalent couldn't be pathed, or maybe with 2tph stopping service KX-Cambridge/Cambridge North all day there was felt to be no need.

 

[Hadders]

I can see customers at Biggleswade being happy when they see the timetable which has virtually all the fast trains stopping there in the morning, only to have their hopes dashed when the trains arrive as there won't be any seats for them.

So will they choose to stand for 36 minutes or sit (on a horrible 700) for 44?

At least passengers at Biggleswade will have that choice, Stevenage passengers won’t have that luxury. At the height of the morning peak passengers from Stevenage get the benefit of:

Fewer trains
Fewer carriages
Fewer seats

 

[notverydeep]

Interesting that the attachment shows the 1812 KGX to KLN decoupling I assume at CBG and going from 3x3871 to 2x3871. This is exactly what the current 1814 does except it splits at Royston with the rear set serving the villages of Meldreth, Foxton and Shepreth.

So the decision to axe this service isn't down to lack of rolling stock. Any insight as to why they have, after some 10 years of providing this service they have decided to remove it?

My guess they have simply standardised the pattern. The train is followed 12 minutes later at Royston by the 17:51 King’s Cross to Cambridge which does serve the villages. If the portion were to detach at Royston it would follow the main train. Assuming the split took 4 minutes as at Cambridge and the main train already has 1 minute of scheduled dwell, then this would depart at 18:53 and be 3 minutes later at Cambridge (which is the downside of the current arrangement – it is safe to assume that the number of passengers for Cambridge substantially outweighs the number for the villages). Passengers towards King’s Lynn wouldn’t have their journey time extended. Then, if the minimum signal headway towards Cambridge is 3 or 4 minutes, the rear portion goes forward at 18:56 or 18:57 and now the slow train is only 5 minutes behind (in the current service, the existing 17:52 from King’s Cross is a Royston train). Some of these changes might have consequences for the trains towards Cambridge coming from the Whittlesford direction at Shepreth Junction.

Extending the slow service does of course give an additional opportunity for passengers commuting from Welwyn GC, Stevenage or Letchworth to the villages. Without a detailed matrix of passenger numbers between each origin and destination I can’t judge whether the journey time saved by the winners exceeds the journey time extended due to this particular detail. It is quite likely that the timetable will evolve with each further December / May change with incremental tweaks. Timetable ‘recasts’ often feature unintended consequences and some will be mitigated with future adjustment, though it is clear that groups of losers will remain in the case of this timetable!

 

[mongoose]

Reading through this thread, a lot of people seem to think their station is losing out with the introduction of this timetable. Are there any stations that actually win (besides Ashwell & Morden, Knebworth and Welwyn North).

 

[bramling]

At least passengers at Biggleswade will have that choice, Stevenage passengers won’t have that luxury. At the height of the morning peak passengers from Stevenage get the benefit of:

Fewer trains
Fewer carriages
Fewer seats

To be fair, one can't consider things in isolation as it may be that the trains arrive emptier thanks to extra services or carriages at stations further out.

Perhaps it would be useful to work out how many seats arrive in London during the am peak across the board. Having said that, the current timetable is a masterpiece in balancing needs and generally delivering what people want - sufficient capacity and fast or non-stop London services from many destinations - and comfortable seats too! Indeed the main constraint has always been lack of stock and short platforms - at Kings Cross and the villages. A lot of money could have been saved just finding a way to extend KX suburban and procure a few more units!

 

[notverydeep]

Reading through this thread, a lot of people seem to think their station is losing out with the introduction of this timetable. Are there any stations that actually win (besides Ashwell & Morden, Knebworth and Welwyn North).

This perception is in part because the May 2018 timetable introduces most of the downsides of the Thameslink "endstate" timetable now planned for 2019, with out (yet) the compensating upsides. The downsides, among them fewer seats at some locations, longer run times and journey opportunities severed (such as Welwyn GC and Hatfield to / from Peterborough) have been discussed in detail on several GN related threads. The up sides for many on GN comes only in later timetables, still many months away and seem distant to the affected passengers, these are planned to be the extra Cambridge Thameslink train per hour (increased frequency) for example and importantly, eight rather than three trains per hour directly serving the Thameslink core, benefiting those bound for these stations.

Critically, most of the improvement seems to be capacity in the form of train length and people will (hopefully) find their trains less crowded, even if the capacity doesn't serve their station directly. An example relevant to me as Welwyn Garden City commuter would be the Cambridge Thameslink trains potentially taking passengers from Royston and Letchworth to / from Finsbury Park, where such passengers might at present use the slow trains that call at WGC in the current service. The extra Knebworth and Welwyn North trains would likely have the same effect).* If this proves true, then the 150 fewer seats per eight car train (compared to 2 x class 317) might be enough. For many, this is hard to see in advance and thus people discount it (or are at least skeptical)...

*While making the timetable hopelessly unreliable for everyone of course...

 

[jellybaby]

Are there any stations that actually win (besides Ashwell & Morden, Knebworth and Welwyn North).

Off peak there seem to be loads more trains, 4tph rather than 2tph to my station in the weekday evening for example.

 

[ijmad]

Reading through this thread, a lot of people seem to think their station is losing out with the introduction of this timetable. Are there any stations that actually win (besides Ashwell & Morden, Knebworth and Welwyn North).

All day 4pth between Blackfriars and Bromley South. Increases services from around 90 trains per day to around 150 trains per day, although a slight reduction in peak services arriving at Blackfriars between 0800 and 0900 which might create some pain.

Also a considerable improvement in peak direction trains between Beckenham Junction and Blackfriars.

 

[Ianno87]

Reading through this thread, a lot of people seem to think their station is losing out with the introduction of this timetable. Are there any stations that actually win (besides Ashwell & Morden, Knebworth and Welwyn North).

Cambridge and Royston get 1 extra trains per hour to London, all day, and a further extra train per hour from December. And direct to London Bridge, East Croydon, Gatwick, Brighton, etc.

 

[jon0844]

I think people need to realise this is a completely fresh timetable written from scratch, therefore *every* service has been axed, and what we see is completely new. Maybe the equivalent couldn't be pathed, or maybe with 2tph stopping service KX-Cambridge/Cambridge North all day there was felt to be no need.

I can only hope there are more trains to be slotted in for this timetable, not December 2018 or 2019. Off peak, the increased train lengths and 4tph to Moorgate will benefit those from WGC south, but running the last train as a 12 car 700 so it can't call at Potters Bar, Hatfield, WGC, Welwyn North or Stevenage is crazy. For years (decades) we've been blessed with a pretty late train service and that's been cut.

Meanwhile they've messed with the stopping pattern south of some late trains, again I assume a 12 car, which seems overkill.

SDO could fix this of course but there's no mention of that being used on 12 cars except in emergencies.

 

[notverydeep]

A further feature of the draft GN Mainline timetable is that the weekday service is almost entirely 8 or 12 cars, apart from the service north of Cambridge to King's Lynn where the vast majority of services seem to be a single 4 car 387. There is one exception that I have found, for some reason 1P53 which will be a 1942 Peterborough - King's Cross seems to be booked a single 4 car 365. This train is additional to the regular pattern and presumably returns one of the units from a northbound peak service.

Pity anyone commuting between any of Potters Bar, Hatfield, Welwyn Garden City, Welwyn North or Knebworth and Huntingdon or Peterborough. The current hourly direct service (about an hour and 6 minutes from WGC to Peterborough) is replaced with a 12 minute Northbound and 23 minute Southbound interchange at Stevenage for most departures! This group loses 30 minute plus from extended journey time per day. While this was clear a year ago from the draft, it will still come as a rude shock to some. I suspect that the number of such commuters will drop sharply...

Speaking of Peterborough to Welwyn Garden City, I have spotted another 12 car train at WGC, the second Southbound 'mainline' service at 0522 is the 0420 from Peterborough to King's Cross and is also shown as a 700/1. This and the last train to WGC discussed earlier in the thread appear to be the only trains that remain non stop between WGC and Finsbury Park and / or Stevenage.

 

[bramling]

I can only hope there are more trains to be slotted in for this timetable, not December 2018 or 2019. Off peak, the increased train lengths and 4tph to Moorgate will benefit those from WGC south, but running the last train as a 12 car 700 so it can't call at Potters Bar, Hatfield, WGC, Welwyn North or Stevenage is crazy. For years (decades) we've been blessed with a pretty late train service and that's been cut.

Meanwhile they've messed with the stopping pattern south of some late trains, again I assume a 12 car, which seems overkill.

SDO could fix this of course but there's no mention of that being used on 12 cars except in emergencies.

It does seem to be the case that the base pattern service is generally felt to be satisfactory with relatively little enhancement for the peaks, apart from the tidal flow services to Peterborough/Royston/Baldock, and a few 3x387 services instead of 2x387. Unfortunately a lot of the features users have become used to over the years - e.g. non-stop KX to Hitchin, non-stop WGC to Finsbury Park etc etc - have only really arisen as a means of managing capacity. The existing timetable could have delivered much extra capacity at the times it's needed were it not for a shortage of rolling stock and a few short platforms (in particular King's Cross platforms 9-11).

 

[bramling]

A further feature of the draft GN Mainline timetable is that the weekday service is almost entirely 8 or 12 cars, apart from the service north of Cambridge to King's Lynn where the vast majority of services seem to be a single 4 car 387. There is one exception that I have found, for some reason 1P53 which will be a 1942 Peterborough - King's Cross seems to be booked a single 4 car 365. This train is additional to the regular pattern and presumably returns one of the units from a northbound peak service.

One wonders if this might be an error, as the 21:06 KX-Peterborough is shown as 2x365, and the obvious arrangement is for the 19:42 Peterborough-KX to make this. Could be wrong though!

Pity anyone commuting between any of Potters Bar, Hatfield, Welwyn Garden City, Welwyn North or Knebworth and Huntingdon or Peterborough. The current hourly direct service (about an hour and 6 minutes from WGC to Peterborough) is replaced with a 12 minute Northbound and 23 minute Southbound interchange at Stevenage for most departures! This group loses 30 minute plus from extended journey time per day. While this was clear a year ago from the draft, it will still come as a rude shock to some. I suspect that the number of such commuters will drop sharply...

Meanwhile there's massive surplus capacity between Hitchin and Cambridge...

I can sort of understand in the peaks providing extra capacity to/from Cambridge as it's certainly the case that by far the majority of journeys are to/from Cambridge over Peterborough. Meanwhile at off-peak times it's very noticeable that passengers from the Peterborough branch tend to treat the fast and slow services the same, simply turning up at the station and boarding the first available train to London, to the detriment of those trying to board at places like Welwyn. My perception is that the number of journeys from Knebworth-Potters Bar to Arlesey-Peterborough is comparatively small - the predominant flows seem to be Hatfield-Stevenage, Welwyn-Stevenage/Hitchin/Letchworth, and to Cambridge itself. I'd add the caveat that this is only based on perception - so official data may prove my observations to be wide of the mark.

 

[chrisncal54]

Zone 1 and 2 fares are the same as Zone 1 only. In fact in the afternoon peak it’s advantageous to tap in at Finsbury rather than at St Pancras.

What’s really needed are platform validators at Finsbury and St Pancras So passengers can change from paper tickets to Oyster.

GTR will probably fail to understand the issue though...

They really should; the pink-coloured Oyster readers have been at Stratford for Greater Anglia passengers for ages.

 

[sefton]

To be fair, one can't consider things in isolation as it may be that the trains arrive emptier thanks to extra services or carriages at stations further out.

Perhaps it would be useful to work out how many seats arrive in London during the am peak across the board.

To take an example, from Huntingdon currently there is a 5.55, 6.29, 7.10, 7.33, 7.40, and 8.02 (the slow trains are irrelevant for a journey to London).

Going forward it looks like there is a 5.56, 6.20, 6.50, 7.20, 7.30, 7.49, 8.20.

So although there is an extra train, the 8.20 isn't going to be used by commuters as it doesn't get in until 9.18. So as the trains are all of the same length as now there are no extra seats and all the trains are full leaving St Neots. Hence my point of rather pointless stopping at Biggleswade unless you want them to stand and get the resulting complaints.

 

[Ianno87]

Meanwhile there's massive surplus capacity between Hitchin and Cambridge...
.

I beg to differ.

The 1Txx Ely/King's Cross fasts are highly well loaded with Cambridge passengers at all times of day these days. Uplifting the semi-fast services (fast enough to be 'meaningful') from 1tph to 2tph from December (together with the cross-London connections they provide) will help relieve some of this crowding and spread demand better across the hour than today. This includes taking some passengers off the peak fasts, with more space for passengers joining at Royston (only the sharpest of elbows gets you the few, if any, seats left there on arrival).

I do declare my interest, living in Cambridge...

The two semi-fasts themselves help keep Royston/Letchworth people off the slows, in turn freeing up space for Hatfield, Potters Bar, etc, especially on busy times like Saturday mornings.

If there's going to be extra off peak trains, they need to start from somewhere. So might as well be Cambridge, where demand is...

 

[bramling]

To take an example, from Huntingdon currently there is a 5.55, 6.29, 7.10, 7.33, 7.40, and 8.02 (the slow trains are irrelevant for a journey to London).

Going forward it looks like there is a 5.56, 6.20, 6.50, 7.20, 7.30, 7.49, 8.20.

So although there is an extra train, the 8.20 isn't going to be used by commuters as it doesn't get in until 9.18. So as the trains are all of the same length as now there are no extra seats and all the trains are full leaving St Neots. Hence my point of rather pointless stopping at Biggleswade unless you want them to stand and get the resulting complaints.

Must admit looking at Hitchin (one of the busiest stations) I'm not seeing much extra capacity. Taking your point that the fast Peterborough trains will be largely full on leaving St Neots, this leaves the Horsham trains to pick up Sandy/Biggleswade/Arlesey, which in the high peak I would imagine would account for most seats (bearing in mind the reduced seating on the 700s, although on the credit side some of today's services are 8 cars instead of 12). This will probably only leave a handful of seats by Hitchin. Meanwhile the Baldock/Royston starters will presumably fill up heavily at Letchworth, although the Cambridge-Brighton service will help too, although for the time being there's only one of these which is conveniently timed for peak London journeys. So I don't see a massive amount of seats being available at Hitchin on any of these services. So I can still see many Hitchin and Stevenage passengers using the stopping services, so if Welwyn passengers think these will arrive any emptier than today then they may well be disappointed!

There is one big unknown of course, which is how many passengers will wish to make use of services going through to the core, which may muddy the waters slightly.

Taking in all of the factors like inferior trains, inherent Thameslink unreliability, slower journeys, having to board down trains on crowded core platforms instead of the comfort of having the train waiting at King's Cross, it doesn't look like much of a good deal for GN. Off-peak passengers definitely get a better deal, or at least those fortunate enough to get to use the declassified first class on the 700s... (until words spreads and/or the declassifying ends!).

 

[SVG2076]

Mainly focused on off-peak, Cambridge fast will overtake Cambridge slow currently so no one will occupy seats to London from Cambridge
Cambridge semi-fast are meaningful as they won't be overtaken by fast.
However the extra capacity for Cambridge-Hitchin section is not very meaningful as the extra capacity is too close to the slow services, the gaps are now 5, 25, 5, 25 minutes interval for the 4tph. Also the main concern is the semi-fast on Sundays from Cambridge, are they axed?

 

[bramling]

Mainly focused on off-peak, Cambridge fast will overtake Cambridge slow currently so no one will occupy seats to London from Cambridge
Cambridge semi-fast are meaningful as they won't be overtaken by fast.
However the extra capacity for Cambridge-Hitchin section is not very meaningful as the extra capacity is too close to the slow services, the gaps are now 5, 25, 5, 25 minutes interval for the 4tph. Also the main concern is the semi-fast on Sundays from Cambridge, are they axed?

Having done some basic calculations, I make the situation as follows, based on arrivals in London between 0700-0900:

Current number of standard class seats from Cambridge branch to London - 6033
Future number of standard classseats from Cambridge branch to London - 7216

Current number of standard class seats from Peterborough branch to London - 5019
Future number of standard class seats from Peterborough branch to London - 5447

Note this doesn't take into account anything starting from Welwyn, and assumes a service provided as it was before the 700s arrived (i.e. 365s or 387s). Obviously if we go back to 317s/321s the "current" values will increase a bit.

Note this is all very much "back of fag packet", so should only be taken as a rough guide. I haven't had time to check for errors!

EDIT: one more figure to ponder over, looking at the old timetable if it was 100% 365 instead of 387, plus 2x365 instead of 2x313 on 2R31, the number of seats coming in from the Cambridge/Royston/Letchworth route would be 6701.

 

[Failed Unit]

Must admit that booking journeys north, it isn't as painful as I first expected.

The trains now leave slightly earlier from WGC than in the past but to get to stations to Scotland you are now 2 changes. Stevenage on VTEC then Peterborourgh / Newark / Doncaster whereas before it was only Peterborough to connect onto the x30 VTEC service. The fact that the new trains to Peterborough are exceptionally uncomfortable the extra change and 8 minute longer journey time is welcomed. Going south I still head for the direct Edinburgh - Stevenage service.

As for any other journeys that used to be direct such as WGC - Huntingdon, the A1 is now the only senisble option. Going to Peterborough itself changing onto VTEC does help preserve the comfort and speed.

 

[Ianno87]

Mainly focused on off-peak, Cambridge fast will overtake Cambridge slow currently so no one will occupy seats to London from Cambridge
Cambridge semi-fast are meaningful as they won't be overtaken by fast.
However the extra capacity for Cambridge-Hitchin section is not very meaningful as the extra capacity is too close to the slow services, the gaps are now 5, 25, 5, 25 minutes interval for the 4tph. Also the main concern is the semi-fast on Sundays from Cambridge, are they axed?

Problem is, given its entirely a 2 track railway from Hitchin East Jn to just south of Cambridge, there's probably no other way to timetable it than having the semi-fast and slow services bunched together at one end of the route or the other.

Yes, ideally they'd be spaced approx 15 mins apart, but I doubt that'd give a sufficiently clear run for the Ely/Lynn fast between them (as well as all the other constraints, like flighting over Welwyn, a decent interval with the Peterborough semi-fasts, Blackfriars Jn, etc. etc.)

 

[philjo]

Must admit that booking journeys north, it isn't as painful as I first expected.

The trains now leave slightly earlier from WGC than in the past but to get to stations to Scotland you are now 2 changes. Stevenage on VTEC then Peterborourgh / Newark / Doncaster whereas before it was only Peterborough to connect onto the x30 VTEC service. The fact that the new trains to Peterborough are exceptionally uncomfortable the extra change and 8 minute longer journey time is welcomed. Going south I still head for the direct Edinburgh - Stevenage service.

As for any other journeys that used to be direct such as WGC - Huntingdon, the A1 is now the only senisble option. Going to Peterborough itself changing onto VTEC does help preserve the comfort and speed.

If you are coming from Letchworth/Baldock/Royston connections with VTEC services to the north at Stevenage are now mixed.
Going out is fine as there are 2 trains (e.g. xx:21 and xx:30 from Letchworth) that will provide a 15-25 min connection at stevenage into the xx:55 service to Leeds. also the other stopper gives a 20 min connection into the xx:28 service to Newark/York. Coming south on VTEC arrival the connections are now much worse. the train from York & Leeds arrive at Stevenage about the same time as the 2 Cambridge services so there is now a 30-40 minute wait for the next stopper. Currently in the evenings the Royston peaks call at Stevenage at a convenient time for VTEC arrivals but these do not call at Stevenage in the new timetable.

 

[Bald Rick]

So although there is an extra train, the 8.20 isn't going to be used by commuters as it doesn't get in until 9.18. So as the trains are all of the same length as now there are no extra seats and all the trains are full leaving St Neots. Hence my point of rather pointless stopping at Biggleswade unless you want them to stand and get the resulting complaints.

You might be surprised. One of the busiest trains of the whole morning on the MML side of Thameslink is the Bedford service that arrives at St Pancras at 0923. When it turns up at St Albans as an 8 instead of the usual 12, it leaves people behind.

In the last decade the morning peak into London has spread, particularly later. My theory is that this is because of the increased number of media (particularly social media) and tech jobs where start late finish late seems to be the order of the day.

 

[Deerfold]

You might be surprised. One of the busiest trains of the whole morning on the MML side of Thameslink is the Bedford service that arrives at St Pancras at 0923. When it turns up at St Albans as an 8 instead of the usual 12, it leaves people behind.

In the last decade the morning peak into London has spread, particularly later. My theory is that this is because of the increased number of media (particularly social media) and tech jobs where start late finish late seems to be the order of the day.

I spent several years commuting into London; for the last few, on a Monday I'd arrive at 0929 at Kings Cross. It was always a very busy train.

 

[ijmad]

In the last decade the morning peak into London has spread, particularly later. My theory is that this is because of the increased number of media (particularly social media) and tech jobs where start late finish late seems to be the order of the day.

IT jobs too, a lot of people start and finish late. More relaxed culture, and also (in the case of multinationals), better overlap with Silicon Valley. A lot of younger people in IT socialise with their workmates after work and don't have families to go home to yet, so it doesn't mater what time you finish up. I spent most of my early 20s arriving in to work at 10am (or later) and going home at 7pm or 8pm most days.

 

[GoatSarah]

Reading through this thread, a lot of people seem to think their station is losing out with the introduction of this timetable. Are there any stations that actually win (besides Ashwell & Morden, Knebworth and Welwyn North).

Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth. They go from 1tph in each direction to 2tph.

 

[bramling]

Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth. They go from 1tph in each direction to 2tph.

I wouldn’t say they do that well. Sure they gain frequency, but their frequency is already 2tph at popular times in both directions, and they don’t gain any form of fast service to London - on the contrary in fact they are pretty much stuck with the stopping service to London, plus longer journey times and less comfortable trains to add insult to injury.

 

[bspahh]

I wouldn’t say they do that well. Sure they gain frequency, but their frequency is already 2tph at popular times in both directions, and they don’t gain any form of fast service to London - on the contrary in fact they are pretty much stuck with the stopping service to London, plus longer journey times and less comfortable trains to add insult to injury.

A balm for that injury is that the trains are twice as long. Even if you get on when there is a short platform, and need to walk along the train to use the extra coaches, it increases the capacity of the train