Snow Service Changes 25/02/18 onwards.

[MikeWM]

Network Rail wanted to shut a considerable part of the network down in East Anglia by midnight tonight. TOCs negotiated (narrowly, and quite literally late in the day) a plan to actually run slightly more trains than that, as a precise 00:00 blanket time didn't make a lot of sense, for a few reasons. There's still been a lot of work put into trying to deliver an orderly and slightly earlier shut down, and into contingency measures if it all went wrong. As it stands, the TOCs' negotiation seems to have been the sensible option, but it's not to say that was a foregone conclusion, even as recently as late afternoon.

That’s very interesting, thanks.

I hadn’t thought it may be that way around as I can’t understand NRs reasoning for wanting to override the TOCs here.

 

[Bromley boy]

To give people a practical example of what's going on tonight...

At the moment there is a stranded Class 313 unit at Newhaven Town. Fortunately only a few passengers have ventured out and about, and fortunately there is a conductor onboard who is looking after them. There are suggestions the loss of power could be weather-related, and assisting staff are having great difficulty getting to the train by road.

If even a few vulnerable people were prevented from travelling on that train due to weather warnings, I think that's a bonus!

That's precisely the kind of situation that could quickly become life threatening. Elderly/vulnerable people stuck on a stalled train with no power (and no heat) in freezing conditions in a situation where rescue may be some time away.

 

[infobleep]

No. It's their prediction based on their assessment of global weather model outputs.

The Met Office do provide percentages/measurements for extreme weather events.

Most decent weather websites and apps will actually have an explanation of how to read their site. Unfortunately we live in an age where we read the headlines and move off to the next thing.

So what I needed to do is find the explanation that explains to me the reason why the hourly forecasts through the day has no symbol matching the daily one.

I think the BBC site does have percentages but for the hourly forecast it was predicting 12% and above it, was a rain symbol

The thing is I'd have expected a snow symbol, given their key of possible symbols shows a snow symbol and everyone is talking about it snowing today.

Guildford did well to get snow today then, given most hours their was a 78% chance it wouldn't snow. The figure is from memory it may have been higher but it certainly wasn't 50% or even near that figure.

 

[infobleep]

That sounds good

I always remember the South West Trains emergency timetable, once they had such a thing that is. It meant my journey home was faster. 1 hour 8 miniyes vers the usual 1 hour 30 minutes.

That was when I worked in Harrow.

There will always be winners and losers and even with an emergency timetable there are winners.

 

[jimm]

So what I needed to do is fins the explanation that explains to me the reason why the hourly forecasts through the day has no symbol matching the daily one.

I think the BBC site does have percentages but for the hourly forecast it was predicting 12% and above it, was a rain symbol

The thing is I'd have expected a snow symbol, given their key of possible symbols shows a snow symbol and everyone is talking about it snowing today.

Guildford did well to get snow today then, given most hours their was a 78% chance it wouldn't snow. The figure is from memory it may have been higher but it certainly wasn't 50% or even near that figure.

i don't know why you seem to set much store by the percentage figures. The Met Office forecast where I live had zero percentage showing for precipitation/snow all day yesterday, but we had several snow flurries in the afternoon, then a steady couple of hours of light snow in the middle of the evening.

 

[infobleep]

I remember in either 2009 or 2010, the4e was a sudden snow fall. South West Trains tries to run a normal timetable. Trains to London were heavily disrupted.

Trains from Guildford to Ascot seemed to fair better. Next day emergency timetable. No trains from Guildford to Ascot. Yet reduced service to London running better.

Now on the face of it, if they could run a service to Ascot the day before, better than they could to London, people will question why they cancelled it the next day.

I'm sure there were reasonable reasons but on the face of it, it did seem odd.

If it was based on ability to run trains the day before then London would have been cancelled and Ascot services run.

 

[infobleep]

Network Rail wanted to shut a considerable part of the network down in East Anglia by midnight tonight. TOCs negotiated (narrowly, and quite literally late in the day) a plan to actually run slightly more trains than that, as a precise 00:00 blanket time didn't make a lot of sense, for a few reasons. There's still been a lot of work put into trying to deliver an orderly and slightly earlier shut down, and into contingency measures if it all went wrong. As it stands, the TOCs' negotiation seems to have been the sensible option, but it's not to say that was a foregone conclusion, even as recently as late afternoon.

Interesting. So what was the benefit of a midnight blanket shutdown? I mean there can be negatives and positives of most solutions to a problem.

 

[infobleep]

i don't know why you seem to set much store by the percentage figures. The Met Office forecast where I live had zero percentage showing for precipitation/snow all day yesterday, but we had several snow flurries in the afternoon, then a steady couple of hours of light snow in the middle of the evening.

Was everyone going on about how it was going to snow yesterday? That's the only reason. Everyone is saying it's going to snow. It's going to snow but actually the chance is quite low, if the predictions were right.

 

[matt_world2004]

When an toc runs trains ecs to keep the line clear of snow who pays for it? Network rail or the TOC's

 

[Wivenswold]

Snow has pepped up out here on the Essex coast. Temperature out here in the wilds down to -4oC so between showers everything is freezing. We're dealing in fine margins too, the convergence zone in the English Channel has a long stream of heavy snow stretching from Dover down to the Channel Islands. 20 miles further north and several south coast towns would have been at a standstill in the morning.

 

[Bantamzen]

Snow is now falling across Yorkshire, preparations are in hand to panic buy loaves of Hovis and bottles of stout....

Seriously though, this situation highlights some serious problems with how things are in 21st Britain. Firstly the almost paralysing fear of snow and ice this country has developed, driven in the main by idiotic media sources like the Express. It wasn't unusal in these parts to have several feet of snow lying for days and even weeks, often with heavy snow falling for days at a time. There was disruption, no doubt about that, but efforts were always made to try and keep the infrastructure open as much as possible. These days the sight or even forecast of a snow flurry seems to be enough for some to shut things down. This isn't just the stuff of rose tinted glasses, many a snowy day in the 70s and 80s led to disappointment as despite there being several feet of snow on the deck, Pennine radio would announce my school as being open.

But moreover the lack of contingency is seriously worrying, especially on the rail network. There are loads of locos and units lying around sidings, slowly rusting away. So why aren't they deployed into warm storage around the country to act as additional Thunderbirds, line inspections and clearing when adverse weather strikes? If crews around the country were signed for them, when bad weather is forecast the locos could be moved to strategic points ready to be deployed for line inspections after storms or clearances during heavy snow.

So why don't we make use of them, because as afraid of adverse weather as we are as a country, we are more terrified by the prospect of paying for something that might get used only a few times a year, even though that investment would keep things running better during disruption and more than pay for itself in the long run. UK logic circa 2018...

 

[LAX54]

Was everyone going on about how it was going to snow yesterday? That's the only reason. Everyone is saying it's going to snow. It's going to snow but actually the chance is quite low, if the predictions were right.

Well it did snow my location about 4 or 5 inches, further towards to coast nearer 6 or 7. but in Colchester very little ! mind you its -6 now at 0600, GA running a reduced service and 12 cars, but there is no one to catch them !

 

[Mojo]

Of course no sign of any snow in London today yet all TfL Rail and many Overground trains are cancelled due to a blanket policy of Network Rail seemingly not agreeing to run trains. Not a good image for the rail industry. Even more bizarre that the diesel-only (for the time being) Goblin is running a reduced service all day.

 

[LAX54]

Net Rail or the TOC ??

 

[Mojo]

Net Rail or the TOC ??

TfL Rail are staying that NR have told them they cannot run any trains.

 

[Gerald Fiennes]

Good to see that TfL is being so proactive: there are no LO trains from Cheshunt to Edmonton Green today but it's OK because they are advising that 'tickets will be accepted on London Underground services'. I'll just have a look round for the tube station out here that I must have missed for the last 40 years!

 

[MadCommuter]

A very different story compared to Scotland a few weeks ago where the ScotRail alliance did a fine job of keeping everything running during a week of consistent snowfall and sub zero temperatures. The twitter feeds were even showing off themselves because they did so well.

 

[LAX54]

TfL Rail are staying that NR have told them they cannot run any trains.

Yet here we are being advised if the TOC wish to run extras, which they have, then Control will give us a call to advise, and more extras are expected during the morning (AGA)

 

[87015]

Yet here we are being advised if the TOC wish to run extras, which they have, then Control will give us a call to advise, and more extras are expected during the morning (AGA)

OHL (non snow) issue on Chingford branch which has blocked in all the stock by the looks of it

 

[WatcherZero]

Many newspapers leading today with the sentiment 'Soft Southerners, Northeners put on a coat and carry on'

 

[Taunton]

TfL Rail are staying that NR have told them they cannot run any trains.

I believe this ridiculous attitude is entirely connected with both NR and the TOCs wanting to save their budget, in case there was any snow, which they cannot handle any more. Passengers be blowed.

There has not been a single flake of snow left lying here in London.

I wonder what excuses the DfT and the Regulator will come up with to justify their forthcoming "hey ho, nothing worth investigating" attitude in the days ahead. Meanwhile, I presume the TOCs are pocketing significant compensation from NR for being told they cannot run. No wonder they went along with it.

 

[JW16]

Not a single drop of snow and not even a frost on the grass this morning. Understandable that there are no trains running into Liverpool Street whatsoever.

 

[LAX54]

-6 c in Colchester, little snow in the Town, but go 3 or 4 miles out then it does get quite bad, I suppose when you are trying to run a service you have to take the route as a whole, whilst 2 or 3 stations may see not see a flake, a few miles down the line, it might be 6 or 7 inches deep.
I left early to get here on time, at home ( 7 miles out) it was quite bad, could get no more than 15mph on the main road, yet by the time I got here in Town it looked like there had been nothing at all ! very deceptive

 

[Antman]

Not a single drop of snow and not even a frost on the grass this morning. Understandable that there are no trains running into Liverpool Street whatsoever.

None at all? This suggests otherwise http://m.nationalrail.co.uk/pj/ldbboard/dep/LST

A lot of cancellations yes!

 

[Taunton]

None at all?

There's none at all!!!

 

[LAX54]

These reports of no snow in London at all, and chastising the TOC's I see B.A have cancelled some 60+ flights out of Heathrow today 'just in case' with BA syaing they were being pro-active based on Met Office reports

 

[Bletchleyite]

These reports of no snow in London at all, and chastising the TOC's I see B.A have cancelled some 60+ flights out of Heathrow today 'just in case' with BA syaing they were being pro-active based on Met Office reports

FWIW I'm in Birmingham where there is very little and my train was on time.

 

[Chrisgr31]

The problem is Network Rail and the TOCs can’t win. The forecast is awful and predicting disruption. If they run trains as normal and one gets stuck and they then struggle to get to it then they will be criticised. If they don’t run trains they are also criticised.

 

[cuccir]

Things moving well up the East Coast Mainline despite heavy and still falling snow.

 

[MadCommuter]

The problem is Network Rail and the TOCs can’t win. The forecast is awful and predicting disruption. If they run trains as normal and one gets stuck and they then struggle to get to it then they will be criticised. If they don’t run trains they are also criticised.

Agreed. Putting an Amber warning out suggests high confidence but it appears they have got it wrong.