Snow Service Changes 25/02/18 onwards.

[61653 HTAFC]

A yellow warning of snow ( not a yellow snow warning) has been issued. If you live in the south PREPARE TO PANIC.

I checked the various forecasting tools i have access to and the consensus seems to be ( for MK) cold overnight down to -3 or-4 with snow showers later in the week. I can live with that. I think i will be able to make it to work. Chug likes the snow

Been a light dusting this morning to the south of Huddersfield, but the sun's out now... who knows what tonight will bring though!

watch out where the huskies go, and don't you eat that yellow snow...

Cheers for the earworm!

 

[Bantamzen]

There has been a "Big Coat" advisory issued for the North of England, so it must be bad....

Seriously though, why do certain TOCs feel more obliged than others to put out amended timetables than others? If bad weather is predicted then the general public ought to know that disruption is likely and plan accordingly, because even amended timetables might be difficult to keep to.

 

[RichJF]

BBC no longer have anything but warnings from the Met Office and there's been a noticeable drop in quality since then.

I don't hold a lot of faith in those hourly symbol maps anyway, they are lifted from data from computer weather models and have no human input (unlike the Met Office forecasts). Those models will display random "blobs" of precipitation within an area that's due to have showers, which the app takes a bit too literally.

Don't bother looking at the new BBC Weather site. Use MetOffice or Accuweather instead. BBC has been inaccurate every single time I've looked & used against the aforementioned other two.

 

[DarloRich]

The local TOC's here in MK are simply issuing advisories and haven't issued any special timetables as yet.

Been a light dusting this morning to the south of Huddersfield, but the sun's out now

or February as it is known up norf! have Northern issued a revised timetable? If they do it might be time for the hat and gloves.

There has been a "Big Coat" advisory issued for the North of England, so it must be bad....

Set for COATCON3 - Snow is imminent.

 

[TwistedMentat]

This may be a stupid question, but am I right in thinking that the main issue with the snow is in third rail areas?

I don't believe so. If it's a wet snow that then freezes that will effect both third rail and overhead.

And the classic thing about "the wrong type of snow" is the dry fluffy stuff that can be easily blown about and get into otherwise well covered areas. Where it melts and shorts stuff out. Unfortunately given the cold temperatures this is what the TOCs and NetworkRail are facing.

 

[PR1Berske]

Guardian reporting cancellations across the south as a direct result of snow.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A yellow warning of snow ( not a yellow snow warning) has been issued. If you live in the south PREPARE TO PANIC.

If you live in the North, get your big coat ready.



Unless you live in Newcastle (does this go as far south as Darlo?) in which case short sleeved shirts are mandatory for a night out in all cases and coats are banned.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I drive for my living, and enjoy driving in the snow, when had last bad snow in the south West, , I made it into work very day was booked to work, I had to drive 30 minutes on A roads and minor roads, when people 5 mins away didn’t make it, to me It’s the bad conditions which make a good driver and teaches the skills and experience for good driving, so not worried about this weather, could be some fun and games

TBH, given that I've got a vehicle very suited to snow (Land Rover Defender), it's more the actions of others I'm worried about, particularly those who go too fast in ice and snow. Though it does, from observation, seem that by and large MK's normally fast drivers do rein it in somewhat in genuinely bad conditions.

There's also that backing out of my driveway requires me to go within about 12" of cars parked on the other side and is downhill to the road, which doesn't leave much leeway. I really should think to remove the Landy from the driveway in advance of it snowing.

As for cycling, I lay my bike up and walk for journeys I would cycle. I really don't like cycling in ice and snow, I've gone sliding far too often. It doesn't help that MK Council can't afford to grit the Redways, and cycling on the dual carriageways is not fun.

 

[Millisle]

The BBC contracted the Met Office last November to continue providing their service until March this year as the new company was unable to be ready on time.

 

[rebmcr]

As for cycling, I lay my bike up and walk for journeys I would cycle. I really don't like cycling in ice and snow, I've gone sliding far too often. It doesn't help that MK Council can't afford to grit the Redways, and cycling on the dual carriageways is not fun.

Cable ties at intervals around your tyres (clip side outward and alternating left- and right-facing) make icy cycling easy!

 

[nlogax]

The BBC contracted the Met Office last November to continue providing their service until March this year as the new company was unable to be ready on time.

As I understand it MeteoGroup started providing weather data to the Beeb three weeks ago. Their TV forecasts are now crediting them.

 

[Darandio]

The BBC contracted the Met Office last November to continue providing their service until March this year as the new company was unable to be ready on time.

It's been Meteogroup from 6th February onwards. And it shows.

 

[gordonthemoron]

It was a bit of a free-for-all in terms of rolling stock in 1991 when Essex had blizzards, I remember seeing a photo of a 315 that had run an all-stations special from Shenfield to Witham. That was the year that the new fangled mark 3 EMUs suffered failures due to the powdery nature of the snow. Same type of snow this time too!

In 1991, ECML ran an all shacks service (may have been via Leeds, can't remember) to avoid moving points. Worked better than normal

 

[MikeWM]

I guess it encourages people to change their plans, to make sure they're home early. So that if it's as bad as predicted, there are fewer people stuck at stations waiting for trains that are never going to be able to run.

I've no issue with a big message in bold and underlined, saying 'we can't guarantee to run trains late into the evening, please travel as early as possible'. It's giving up entirely before we know how bad things are going to be that rather baffles me - some people will have no choice but to try to travel late in the evening, why not wait to see what is possible rather than leaving them stranded?

 

[InOban]

It's been Meteogroup from 6th February onwards. And it shows.

As far as I know, the data still comes from the met office. Meteo group don't have supercomputers, or weather stations. They've just created the awful website.

 

[LAX54]

There has been a "Big Coat" advisory issued for the North of England, so it must be bad....

Seriously though, why do certain TOCs feel more obliged than others to put out amended timetables than others? If bad weather is predicted then the general public ought to know that disruption is likely and plan accordingly, because even amended timetables might be difficult to keep to.

If they plan it a couple of days out, then the stock and crews will all be in the right places to work the revised service, to try and bring a revised TT into operation half way though the day, will and does fall flat on its face. BR used to have Emergency timetables ready at the drop of a hat pre-published internally, but again even then only really worked correctly if started at the very start of the day,

so AGA this week, have plans in place if the weather is as bad as forecast by the Met Office, and can run with that from start up, but can maintain the WTT if it does not turn up, I would have thought same amount of crews, but obviously some would be 'spare' if the revised service is brought in.

 

[Wivenswold]

As far as I know, the data still comes from the met office. Meteo group don't have supercomputers, or weather stations. They've just created the awful website.

No, they can only use publicly available data from the Met Office (i.e. the free stuff), only a small amount of what the supercomputers' produce is available to them. So they will use their own chief forecaster to decide on the weather with the aid of all of the supercomputers in the world. So their final assessment may differ from the Met Office forecasts. So far, they're not doing very well.

 

[LAX54]

But we are not expecting the 'heavy' snow until midnight tonight.

 

[Wirewiper]

But we are not expecting the 'heavy' snow until midnight tonight.

Which is why the Train Operating Companies in the areas predicted to be worst affected are finishing their services early, so that their trains are stabled before it hits.

 

[tsr]

No, they can only use publicly available data from the Met Office (i.e. the free stuff), only a small amount of what the supercomputers' produce is available to them. So they will use their own chief forecaster to decide on the weather with the aid of all of the supercomputers in the world. So their final assessment may differ from the Met Office forecasts. So far, they're not doing very well.

I quite agree. As someone who is well known to friends & family as both a transport and (to a lesser degree) weather nerd, I’m hearing a lot of dissatisfaction from them when it comes to recent BBC forecast quality, too. People are really noticing this.

Which is why the Train Operating Companies in the areas predicted to be worst affected are finishing their services early, so that their trains are stabled before it hits.

It starts to look more sensible the more you look at it.

Passengers have no need to be turning up for what could be a very unreliable service. No standby buses stuck out in the sticks (or having to be resourced). Crews home and rested. Control able to work on the next day’s plans without being disturbed by calls from stranded trains / Help Points / stations with stranded pax.

The odd passenger here and there, who still rocks up despite cancellations, can be accommodated with taxi bookings if they would otherwise be stranded, which will be a drop in the ocean compared to the overall costs of winter contingency measures. (I understand that at least one Control, which shall remain nameless, is presently assessing local hotel capacity in case a late-evening train of people does get stuck.)

 

[Failed Unit]

They are damned if they do. Damned if they don’t.

Recent examples
Heathrow airport cancelled ⅓ flights a few years back based on a weather forecast. Not a single flake fell.

Lincoln Christmas market cancelled last year on Sunday. No snow fell.

Winds were higher than forecast a few years ago for Scotrail. Many trains damaged for hit trees. Critics slated them for running trains.

If we wake up with no snow the TOCs will be critised for over reaction. If it starts now and people can’t get home they will be hit with why didn’t they have a plan b. Whatever happens they got it wrong.

 

[infobleep]

The BBC have changed their forecast provider recently. In my experience so far while it was fairly unreliable before the change, it is almost completely random now

Still it's probably saving them money!

 

[nlogax]

They are damned if they do. Damned if they don’t.

Yep. This is what comes with living in a country with inconsistent and hard-to-predict winter weather. Not easy to determine whether cancelling something or ploughing ahead (no pun intended) is the best course of action.

 

[cuccir]

Unless you live in Newcastle (does this go as far south as Darlo?) in which case short sleeved shirts are mandatory for a night out in all cases and coats are banned.

On Thursday last week I was at the rally for the UCU (university) strike in Newcastle; the speakers there all said they were happy at how good the weather was. It made me laugh when I watched the piece on the Ten O'Clock News in which people interviewed at protests/pickets from the rest of the country were all commenting on the cold!

 

[al78]

Cable ties at intervals around your tyres (clip side outward and alternating left- and right-facing) make icy cycling easy!

That only works if you have disc brakes.

Alternatively, try these:
http://www.chainreactioncycles.com/schwalbe-marathon-winter-tyre-raceguard/rp-prod80796

 

[al78]

They are damned if they do. Damned if they don’t.

Recent examples
Heathrow airport cancelled ⅓ flights a few years back based on a weather forecast. Not a single flake fell.

Lincoln Christmas market cancelled last year on Sunday. No snow fell.

Winds were higher than forecast a few years ago for Scotrail. Many trains damaged for hit trees. Critics slated them for running trains.

If we wake up with no snow the TOCs will be critised for over reaction. If it starts now and people can’t get home they will be hit with why didn’t they have a plan b. Whatever happens they got it wrong.

Didn't we have this "Damned if they do. Damned if they don’t." issue a few years ago when we had the very stormy 2013/14 winter? There was pre-emptive cancellation of services before the first serious storm arrived just before Christmas, and there was discussion on here as to whether it was an over-reaction.

 

[al78]

It is not just snow causing problems in the south east:

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/passenger...s-delayed-plastic-bottle-track-112629720.html

 

[LAX54]

Didn't we have this "Damned if they do. Damned if they don’t." issue a few years ago when we had the very stormy 2013/14 winter? There was pre-emptive cancellation of services before the first serious storm arrived just before Christmas, and there was discussion on here as to whether it was an over-reaction.

We did, and I recall sitting in the PSB at about 0700 saying to the Manager, why on earth did we cancel everything, 60 mins later there was chaos ! OHL trippings, trees down, there was a freight that passed Stratford at about 0730, finally went through Colchester at about 1300, and there were no trains ahead of it !

 

[Darandio]

As far as I know, the data still comes from the met office. Meteo group don't have supercomputers, or weather stations. They've just created the awful website.

The data doesn't come from the Met Office, it comes from Meteogroup. They do have and provide their own data.

 

[infobleep]

The BBC contracted the Met Office last November to continue providing their service until March this year as the new company was unable to be ready on time.

So is it still met office predictions then?

I appreciate whether predicting is very difficult. However I am less forgiving when they don't include a percentage chance of it occurring. They do that in America

Also they should give us an explanation of why none of the hourly forecasts symbols may not match the daily one.