Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[WatcherZero]

So much for SARPA's newsletter 73 (Aug 2017) which stated (page 4) that the bidders were down to just Abellio and Arriva!

Oh dear; didn't Gareth post way back in this topic that MTR and Keolis appeared to be fairly clueless regarding the needs of rural Wales compared to Arriva and Abellio who seemed safer pairs of hands? And that MTR wanted to strip seats from the ValleyLines (ie. turning them over to 100% tram operation)? It seems we may have lost the two bidders that had better offerings; but I guess with the secrecy of the whole process we will never know.

Part of the ITT according to the Welsh Government briefing note was that whatever stock was acquired for the Valley Lines must be capable of operating on street.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Losing a quarter of your bidders was perhaps unfortunate losing Half of them looks accident prone.....Skates full statement was very gushing in praise of Abeilo contrast with what was said about Arriva. I wonder now that there favourite bidder has gone will they look to bail out and blame outside factors. Will Grayling be that reason?

 

[gareth950]

Part of the ITT according to the Welsh Government briefing note was that whatever stock was acquired for the Valley Lines must be capable of operating on street.

Do you have a link/source for that?

 

[WatcherZero]

Do you have a link/source for that?

https://beta.gov.wales/sites/defaul...rator-and-development-partner-procurement.pdf

Ensure That.....

...The potential to be extended to provide additional stations and extensions including future on street running.

 

[Bevan Price]

Part of the ITT according to the Welsh Government briefing note was that whatever stock was acquired for the Valley Lines must be capable of operating on street.

Cardiff to Merthyr, Rhymney & Treherbert are all about 23 miles, which is an awfully long journey to suffer in tram-like vehicles, particularly if they provide too few seats and consider it acceptable to stand for longish journeys.

 

[HH]

Wow, this is massive news as I think lots of people believed rightly or wrongly they were the preferred, bidder.

Wrongly. There is no preferred bidder yet. Some stakeholders did seem to like abellio, but this doesn't always amount to a hill of beans.

 

[HH]

Interesting that in their reason for surrendering the bid they say they were unable to secure Carillions assets from the Administrator suggesting they were bidding against Amey for them.

Edit: Abellios tweet confirms they were relying on their partner Aecom winning the auction for the assets.

I thought I already said that days ago. Abellio wouldn't want to buy Carillion directly on several fronts.

 

[HH]

Carillion's railway interests were acquired by Amey, who are Keolis' bid partner, of course.

As I said earlier. Please keep up.

 

[HH]

Although the formal transfer of the Core Valley lines away from NR to Welsh Govt still has not been finalised.
The announcement was due this month, and this month is over next Wednesday.

I wouldn't read anything into that. Governments regularly fail to meet their own deadlines. AFAIK TfW remain 100% committed to this, rightly or wrongly.

 

[gareth950]

Losing a quarter of your bidders was perhaps unfortunate losing Half of them looks accident prone.....Skates full statement was very gushing in praise of Abeilo contrast with what was said about Arriva. I wonder now that there favourite bidder has gone will they look to bail out and blame outside factors. Will Grayling be that reason?

Welsh Govt are awarding this franchise under an 'agency agreement' on behalf of Grayling and DfT. Grayling still has to approve and sign off the final deal, as he refuses to fully devolve awarding powers for the franchise to Welsh Govt. Along with Network Rail still not having formally transferred control of the Valley lines to Welsh Govt, when this was due over a year ago.

As I said earlier. Please keep up.

What position within Abellio do you hold?

 

[HH]

Cardiff to Merthyr, Rhymney & Treherbert are all about 23 miles, which is an awfully long journey to suffer in tram-like vehicles, particularly if they provide too few seats and consider it acceptable to stand for longish journeys.

The specification is a bit woolly in places (boom boom!), so different solutions are possible. Shame we'll only get to see the winner's.

 

[HH]

What position within Abellio do you hold?

Why do you think I hold a position in abellio?

 

[HH]

Losing a quarter of your bidders was perhaps unfortunate losing Half of them looks accident prone.....Skates full statement was very gushing in praise of Abeilo contrast with what was said about Arriva. I wonder now that there favourite bidder has gone will they look to bail out and blame outside factors. Will Grayling be that reason?

To be fair I don't think you can lay the abellio loss too heavily on TfW. I would actually lay more blame on abellio for staying with carillion despite the warning signs.

 

[gareth950]

Why do you think I hold a position in abellio?

Because you seem to know an awful lot about their bid and the goings on at TfW. You said early this morning that an announcement was imminent before the news was made public.

 

[HH]

Because you seem to know an awful lot about their bid and the goings on at TfW. You said early this morning that an announcement was imminent before the news was made public.

I said "I'd think an announcement is imminent". It's logical, if you know how these things work politically. Also I do know a number of senior abellio people and how the company works, but none of these people have told me anything about the bid.

As for the bid; no, I don't know very much. I've heard a couple of rumours, but as the SARPA Newsletter shows, rumours aren't worth a great deal in the rail industry.

 

[krus_aragon]

It's Wales.

Would have to be Ivor the Engine.

Thomas can sodor off!

What about Thomas Bach in Llanberis?

 

[Chester1]

Cardiff to Merthyr, Rhymney & Treherbert are all about 23 miles, which is an awfully long journey to suffer in tram-like vehicles, particularly if they provide too few seats and consider it acceptable to stand for longish journeys.

There has been a very extensive debate on this in the South Wales Metro thread. My two cents are that there will be insufficient seats in the predicted 50m units and its too far without a toilet. However, with the right seating the level of comfort could match or exceed most commuter trains, its really down to the choice of unit and internal layout. Its the wrong choice of lines to convert, as you said they are too far away from Cardiff.

 

[Envoy]

There has been a very extensive debate on this in the South Wales Metro thread. My two cents are that there will be insufficient seats in the predicted 50m units and its too far without a toilet. However, with the right seating the level of comfort could match or exceed most commuter trains, its really down to the choice of unit and internal layout. Its the wrong choice of lines to convert, as you said they are too far away from Cardiff.

Not just Cardiff - some people go all the way to/from the heads of the valleys down to Barry Island / Penarth / Rhoose (for Cardiff Airport) / Llantwit Major. Well, I suppose that if the valleys get some sort of tram - and the coastal route stays as trains - the passengers will get a chance for some exercise/toilet break at Cardiff Central - if they do indeed split the system.

I note that it is around 1 hour from the heads of the valleys down to Cardiff and about another 30 minutes to Barry Island. On the mainline, it is 1 hour from Cardiff to Swindon and 1 hour 30 minutes from Cardiff to Reading. So, what must be considered is the journey length and the type of comfort that should be provided for that journey length. Would whatever is proposed as new rolling stock for the valleys, be considered suitable for similar length journeys on the mainline - excluding the speed factor?

 

[Gareth Marston]

To be fair I don't think you can lay the abellio loss too heavily on TfW. I would actually lay more blame on abellio for staying with carillion despite the warning signs.

Napoleon Bonparte responded to a comment about an opposing General being a good General by saying "ah but is he a lucky General?" One gets the feeling that this process no matter how much the Cardiff Bay spin boyos try and say otherwise is now heading toward the buffers.

Ben Davies from ATW (who was part of Arrivas bid team) told the Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth Line Liaison Committee recently that Arriva were not playing their cards for an extension when quizzed about it.

 

[JetStream]

Arriva apparently pulled out for a few reasons:

Risk/reward of infrastructure costs of the Metro
Higher than expected investment needed for Northern
State of the £ following Brexit.

As for Abellio, I really can't see how that's the Assembly's fault.

Essentially, if the Metro wasn't a thing, there'd probably still be 4 bidders. It is though, and all 4 companies knew this.

The spin is getting a little desperate, admittedly.

Personally, Abellio and Arriva were the two I expected it to come down to - got that a bit wrong!

 

[Gareth Marston]

Arriva apparently pulled out for a few reasons:

Risk/reward of infrastructure costs of the Metro
Higher than expected investment needed for Northern
State of the £ following Brexit.

As for Abellio, I really can't see how that's the Assembly's fault.

Essentially, if the Metro wasn't a thing, there'd probably still be 4 bidders. It is though, and all 4 companies knew this.

The spin is getting a little desperate, admittedly.

Personally, Abellio and Arriva were the two I expected it to come down to - got that a bit wrong!

The two A's were the only ones who engaged with the RUG's. I spoke with someone from HOWLTA in the week who expressed the view that MTR was too metro operation focused and Keolis were an unknown entity given their bit part role in UK operations to date. He said they wanted someone with some understanding of rural lines (by default Abeilio).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

KeolisAmey now run Manchester Metrolink, so they and MTR have very good metro credentials.
Having said that, their signalling contractor Thales has been in dispute with TfGM about costs and delays to the TMS for the recent expansion.
Keolis has had plenty of exposure to UK franchises over the years in a minority mode, and MTR now has SWR as well as Crossrail.
The pressure must be on MTR with its current commitments, especially now Crossrail commissioning is in trouble.

 

[JetStream]

I believe Keolis also have a hand in the Nottingham Trams - make of that what you will!

 

[Bletchleyite]

KeolisAmey now run Manchester Metrolink, so they and MTR have very good metro credentials.

Though Metrolink is very much a "do as you're told" contract. All they are really doing there is managing HR and the likes, not doing anything innovative.

 

[dorsetdesiro]

Keolis also form part of Govia running GTR, Southeastern and previously London Midland. I think they were a partner with FirstGroup in the previous TP franchise.

If Keolis is awarded the Wales franchise then perhaps GoAhead will join the franchise at a later stage as the smaller partner. Abellio later brought in Japanese partners for the East Anglia franchise.

 

[SeanM1997]

Anyone know when the minimum requirement per station will be released?

 

[gareth950]

Anyone know when the minimum requirement per station will be released?

Due to the top secret nature of the award of the franchise, never. And that's the honest answer.

 

[HH]

Keolis also form part of Govia running GTR, Southeastern and previously London Midland. I think they were a partner with FirstGroup in the previous TP franchise.

If Keolis is awarded the Wales franchise then perhaps GoAhead will join the franchise at a later stage as the smaller partner. Abellio later brought in Japanese partners for the East Anglia franchise.

1. Yes, but Keolis have been very much a minority partner on many of these; for instance it had practically no input to the running of TPE.
2. I think it highly unlikely that GA will join as this is KeolisAmey not Keolis and it is not the type of franchise that GA goes for.

Keolis have been trying for some time to become more active and find new partners (they bid on the failed West Coast franchise, for example). From their point of view this would be a good win; still neither they, nor MTR have experience of running a TOC like W&B. Both do have experience of running Light Rail/Trams though.

But, don't forget, 99.9% of the current staff will stay with the next franchise. A few directors may change, but if they do, I would expect the bidder to be hiring someone with relevant experience. Therefore the apparent inexperience of the two remaining bidders in running rural and longer distance services is not really as a big a deal as it seems.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

But, don't forget, 99.9% of the current staff will stay with the next franchise. A few directors may change, but if they do, I would expect the bidder to be hiring someone with relevant experience. Therefore the apparent inexperience of the two remaining bidders in running rural and longer distance services is not really as a big a deal as it seems.

And the Arriva management team will be available.
In the revolving door of the railway, TOC MDs often turn up working for what used to be the opposition.
Who knows, there may be some Stagecoach managers coming free soon.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Arriva apparently pulled out for a few reasons:

Risk/reward of infrastructure costs of the Metro
Higher than expected investment needed for Northern
State of the £ following Brexit.

As for Abellio, I really can't see how that's the Assembly's fault.

Essentially, if the Metro wasn't a thing, there'd probably still be 4 bidders. It is though, and all 4 companies knew this.

The spin is getting a little desperate, admittedly.

Personally, Abellio and Arriva were the two I expected it to come down to - got that a bit wrong!

Well its only the Welsh Government that wants the bonkers idea of core valley lines so it can have a token fiefdom of control over rail services not involving DfT, so there would be no need for Construction partners if it wasn't for WG.