South Wales 'Metro' updates

[Envoy]

I noticed that that land has been cleared. Had no idea anything was proposed there. Utterly ridiculous situation - here's the plans:
http://vogonline.planning-register.co.uk/PlaRecord.aspx?AppNo=2016/00115/OUT
In this document: https://tfw.gov.wales/sites/default/files/documents/SHRA South Wales Metro.pdf scheme 145 on page 79 proposes a park and ride at Cogan - that land would be perfect for it.

Yes, it is incredible that Transport for Wales documentation lists under scheme 145 an extended P&R facility at Cogan Station while the Vale of Glam Council give planning permission for a block of flats to go up on land that could be used for the P&R. It appears that the Vale of Glam Council did indeed consult with Network Rail about this so presumably they did not object? They also consulted with Public Health Wales. Goodness knows what they said about the scheme but I would have thought that this is one of the worst locations to put new human dwellings as it is right alongside a main road which usually has queueing traffic. It is going to be ‘affordable accommodation’ - so presumably it is OK to put the less wealthy in areas of high air & noise pollution? Mention is also made in the planning documentation that the site is ‘sustainable’ due to the nearby rail station and bus stops providing transportation. However, I note that land has also been set aside for the residents to park their cars.

Here is a link to BBC report about air pollution in Wales:>
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-39182628

Air pollution is a "public health crisis" and needs to be tackled urgently, a health agency has warned.
Public Health Wales (PHW) said it was second only to smoking and more of a concern than obesity and alcohol.
Its figures show air pollution causes 2,000 deaths a year - 6% of Wales' total.

Here is an aerial view of the site for the flats - basically the green area alongside the main road with the former road to the blocked up underpass being used for car access. Note how relatively full the station car park is and that more spaces are needed. (The car park to the east is that for Tesco Cogan - which ideally should have been a station with P&R on the Penarth branch).

 

[gareth950]

Interesting choice of topic for Christian Wolmar in latest edition of RAIL- basically he warns that if Welsh Government drops the ball on the replacement franchise/ South Wales Metro it could damage Welsh Labour electorally. Why would he choose this given what else is going on in UK rail at moment?

The piece itself is fairly benign and sticks to public domain stuff like the background to current franchise being got wrong, ATW super profits, Arriva dropping out, Abeilo/Carillion etc. however his conclusion is a stark warning to Welsh Labour that you wouldn't necessarily deduce from reading rest of piece. Given that hes London Labour party I suspect disquiet and rumblings about how Cardiff Bay are handling it have permeated through to Metropolis ... of course he wont directly criticize Labour but its clear his conclusion is coming from somewhere/something hes not written about in his piece.

I disagree with the main point made in the piece that 'every grisly detail' is being covered by the 'Welsh media'.

As we've said, there is no 'Welsh media' aside from Western Mail group and BBC Wales. There have been a few critical articles in Western Mail's publications regarding the secrecy of the process but nowhere near enough scrutiny.
Otherwise it's just been gushing praise in Wales Online and BBC Wales, quoting Ken Skates about how fantastic and transformative the Metro is going to be.
Nowhere near enough questions were asked when Carillion collapsed, like how on earth can Abellio even contemplate staying in the process with no construction partner.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Interesting choice of topic for Christian Wolmar in latest edition of RAIL- basically he warns that if Welsh Government drops the ball on the replacement franchise/ South Wales Metro it could damage Welsh Labour electorally. Why would he choose this given what else is going on in UK rail at moment?

The piece itself is fairly benign and sticks to public domain stuff like the background to current franchise being got wrong, ATW super profits, Arriva dropping out, Abeilo/Carillion etc. however his conclusion is a stark warning to Welsh Labour that you wouldn't necessarily deduce from reading rest of piece. Given that hes London Labour party I suspect disquiet and rumblings about how Cardiff Bay are handling it have permeated through to Metropolis ... of course he wont directly criticize Labour but its clear his conclusion is coming from somewhere/something hes not written about in his piece.

Of course, there has been a fair bit of unease between Welsh Labour and Labour nationally for a while now. So it isn't too surprising that someone has aired a public "warning" to Welsh Labour.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Of course, there has been a fair bit of unease between Welsh Labour and Labour nationally for a while now. So it isn't too surprising that someone that someone has aired a public "warning" to Welsh Labour.

The Corbyn Labour party that younger urban voters seem to have bought in to last year is not the Labour party that Carwyn Jones leads in Wales that's for sure!

 

[Gareth Marston]

Clear and vocal support for something that's not focusing on Core Valley Lines on Letters Page of Western Mail.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/western-mail-letters-tuesday-february-14281770

Rail problem needs a political solution
The missing rail link between Ebbw Vale and Newport is already open – trains run somewhat irregularly from Ebbw Vale to Newport and vice-versa. The rail line and the signaling work – what’s lacking is a regularly timetabled service - this is a problem that requires a political solution not an infrastructure solution.

We can start to fix this problem, with a very public all-party commitment to ensure that a regular timetabled service to and from Ebbw Vale to Newport is part of the new all-Wales rail franchise.

The Ebbw Vale line reopened in 2008, carrying a year’s worth of anticipated passengers in the first four months. The new service failed to connect to Newport from day one - despite the implied promises and suggestions made that it would when the railway line was reopened.

The Labour in Wales Welsh Labour government have run out of old tired excuses and tired soft weasel words to hide their failure. It’s irrelevant as to whether this was a short-sighted ill thought out or a deliberate, conscious decision not to connect the service to Newport.

Commuters living in the Ebbw valley are unable to travel directly to Newport and are denied the opportunity of catching connecting trains to Bristol, London, Cheltenham and beyond. The end result remains the same in that commuters have no choice but to drive and join the congestion on the overcrowded M4.

Jonathan T Clark

Newport

 

[CardiffKid]

Jonathan Clark - perennial Plaid Cymru candidate from Monmouth there.

But he's spot on. There's been pressure on the WG to introduce an Ebbw Vale - Newport service almost since day one.

 

[Del1977]

Jonathan Clark - perennial Plaid Cymru candidate from Monmouth there.

But he's spot on. There's been pressure on the WG to introduce an Ebbw Vale - Newport service almost since day one.

Bet it would have no more than 20% of the loadings of the Cardiff Central trains. So if a second train per hour were introduced on that branch, I'll bet more people would want that second train to go to Cardiff.

 

[CardiffKid]

Cardiff is bigger, has a larger population, more jobs, more shops, more bars and more rugby games so will be more popular, but that's no reason to not have an Ebbw Vale to Newport train.

 

[Del1977]

Cardiff is bigger, has a larger population, more jobs, more shops, more bars and more rugby games so will be more popular, but that's no reason to not have an Ebbw Vale to Newport train.

There is if many more people want the second train to go to Cardiff rather than Newport, for the reasons you've just listed!

 

[Dai Corner]

Bet it would have no more than 20% of the loadings of the Cardiff Central trains. So if a second train per hour were introduced on that branch, I'll bet more people would want that second train to go to Cardiff.

There are at least six buses an hour between Newport and Pye Corner/Rogerstone/Risca/Crosskeys/Newbridge (i.e. that part of the line within the Newport urban area) so there must be plenty of demand for travel along that corridor. How many would find an hourly train more attractive than the very frequent, free for the over 60s bus I don't know.

 

[Del1977]

There are at least six buses an hour between Newport and Pye Corner/Rogerstone/Risca/Crosskeys/Newbridge (i.e. that part of the line within the Newport urban area) so there must be plenty of demand for travel along that corridor. How many would find an hourly train more attractive than the very frequent, free for the over 60s bus I don't know.

Well if a second path is made available, I'd just ask local people as to which they'd prefer and run that. My hunch is they'd rather a half-hourly service to CDF rather than an hourly service alternating between Newport & Cardiff.

 

[oglord]

Cardiff is bigger, has a larger population, more jobs, more shops, more bars and more rugby games so will be more popular, but that's no reason to not have an Ebbw Vale to Newport train.

The relative size of the cities is not the point. Most of Britain is east of Cardiff and Newport High St is clearly a much preferable point to change trains, or even provide through services to places like Bristol Parkway. This of course is leaving aside the political point that the reopening of the line was meant to help regenerate Newport after the ending of steel making at the Llanwern works, not drain people away!

 

[CardiffKid]

“Metro will run at least four services an hour across the whole network”

http://gov.wales/topics/transport/public/metro/?lang=en

2 to Cardiff and 2 to Newport perhaps? And that's before the spur to Abertillery comes into play.

 

[Del1977]

The relative size of the cities is not the point. Most of Britain is east of Cardiff and Newport High St is clearly a much preferable point to change trains, or even provide through services to places like Bristol Parkway. This of course is leaving aside the political point that the reopening of the line was meant to help regenerate Newport after the ending of steel making at the Llanwern works.

The relative size of cities is the point if they drive demand. I can see the convenience of changing at Newport if going towards Bristol or London, though this is then offset by only having an hourly service, making a short change less likely.

There won't ever be a through service to Bristol Parkway from Ebbw Vale.

 

[Del1977]

“Metro will run at least four services an hour across the whole network”

http://gov.wales/topics/transport/public/metro/?lang=en

2 to Cardiff and 2 to Newport perhaps? And that's before the spur to Abertillery comes into play.

If that happens - great.

However - I don't see it happening in the next 25 years. 1 extra service will probably be added, and it'll probably be sent to Cardiff.

 

[Dai Corner]

Well if a second path is made available, I'd just ask local people as to which they'd prefer and run that. My hunch is they'd rather a half-hourly service to CDF rather than an hourly service alternating between Newport & Cardiff.

Oh, like they are doing at the moment for the new franchise you mean?

 

[Del1977]

Oh, like they are doing at the moment for the new franchise you mean?

What I'd do, and what they are doing are two different things!

 

[gareth950]

“Metro will run at least four services an hour across the whole network”

http://gov.wales/topics/transport/public/metro/?lang=en

2 to Cardiff and 2 to Newport perhaps? And that's before the spur to Abertillery comes into play.

Depends on what TfW define as the 'whole network' doesn't it? Atm it seems that anything outside of the 'Core Valley lines' will be lucky to see like for like new DMU replacement at current service levels.

 

[CardiffKid]

Depends on what TfW define as the 'whole network' doesn't it? Atm it seems that anything outside of the 'Core Valley lines' will be lucky to see like for like new DMU replacement with current service levels continuing.

Reluctantly and regrettably I don't believe half of what WG/TfW/NR et al are promising, however in terms of the 'whole network' I don't see I you can interpret that as being just north of CDQ - the whole network is surely everything on those lovely colorful child like underground style maps no?

 

[MarkyT]

On first opening Ebbw Vale services couldn't go into Newport because of layout and signalling constraints. Now there is capacity they can't because the extra 4.5km (7 or 8 minutes?) to go in and out of the main station would annoy established Cardiff passengers so immensely they'd all riot I assume, despite that they've got a comparatively high-speed non-stop journey all the way to Central once leaving the Newport area. Of course anyone wanting a main line train to England from Ebbw Vale faces a 32km trek to Cardiff and back (and no doubt some additional cost in that). Perhaps that's why there's no demand? So my question is how many Cardiff passengers would you lose (actually lose really, not just complain) by sending every Ebbw Vale Junction to Newport - reverse - Cardiff? If there was a direct curve from Swansea near Bynea, should Central Wales trains avoid Llanelli? Its a similar dilemma but I would argue regardless Newport is a much more important traffic attractor, particularly with its longer distance connections with the east.

 

[gareth950]

Reluctantly and regrettably I don't believe half of what WG/TfW/NR et al are promising, however in terms of the 'whole network' I don't see I you can interpret that as being just north of CDQ - the whole network is surely everything on those lovely colorful child like underground style maps no?

You would hope so wouldn't you.

 

[Del1977]

On first opening Ebbw Vale services couldn't go into Newport because of layout and signalling constraints. Now there is capacity they can't because the extra 4.5km (7 or 8 minutes?) to go in and out of the main station would annoy established Cardiff passengers so immensely they'd all riot I assume, despite that they've got a comparatively high-speed non-stop journey all the way to Central once leaving the Newport area. Of course anyone wanting a main line train to England from Ebbw Vale faces a 32km trek to Cardiff and back (and no doubt some additional cost in that). Perhaps that's why there's no demand? So my question is how many Cardiff passengers would you lose (actually lose really, not just complain) by sending every Ebbw Vale Junction to Newport - reverse - Cardiff? If there was a direct curve from Swansea near Bynea, should Central Wales trains avoid Llanelli? Its a similar dilemma but I would argue regardless Newport is a much more important traffic attractor, particularly with its longer distance connections with the east.

I doubt very much that a service from Ebbw Vale to Cardiff Central, via Newport could make it from Gaer Junction, in to Newport Station, turn around and be out of Newport station and back at Gaer junction in 7/8 minutes.

 

[MarkyT]

I doubt very much that a service from Ebbw Vale to Cardiff Central, via Newport could make it from Gaer Junction, in to Newport Station, turn around and be out of Newport station and back at Gaer junction in 7/8 minutes.

A quick glance at today's working timetable via RTT reveals between 3 and 5 minutes allowed today on the Cardiff curve between Park Jn and Ebbw Jn and 3 minutes on the main line for a typicval passenger train between Ebbw Jn and Newport station. The Ebbw Vale trains must include a fair slug of pathing time or other padding in that. No more than 9 or 10 in and out then, but you'd be saving the 3 to 5 on the Cardiff curve too. I wonder whether the Cardiff curve would have been reconstructed for Ebbw Vale service if it had been lost in the 1960s, or would all trains have naturally gone via Newport in that case.

 

[Gareth Marston]

A quick glance at today's working timetable via RTT reveals between 3 and 5 minutes allowed today on the Cardiff curve between Park Jn and Ebbw Jn and 3 minutes on the main line for a typicval passenger train between Ebbw Jn and Newport station. The Ebbw Vale trains must include a fair slug of pathing time or other padding in that. No more than 9 or 10 in and out then, but you'd be saving the 3 to 5 on the Cardiff curve too. I wonder whether the Cardiff curve would have been reconstructed for Ebbw Vale service if it had been lost in the 1960s, or would all trains have naturally gone via Newport in that case.

Academic but clock the view from 70's here.
http://www.2d53.co.uk/South Wales/12 Minutes at Ebbw Jn.htm

Freight which is why the branch was still there to reopen.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Reluctantly and regrettably I don't believe half of what WG/TfW/NR et al are promising, however in terms of the 'whole network' I don't see I you can interpret that as being just north of CDQ - the whole network is surely everything on those lovely colorful child like underground style maps no?

One big point NR ain't part of this it's being forced on them.

 

[Gareth Marston]

There are at least six buses an hour between Newport and Pye Corner/Rogerstone/Risca/Crosskeys/Newbridge (i.e. that part of the line within the Newport urban area) so there must be plenty of demand for travel along that corridor. How many would find an hourly train more attractive than the very frequent, free for the over 60s bus I don't know.

Journey time pure and simple local buses go into housing estates etc Newbridge Is Near an hour out by bus the trains would be nearer 20 minutes.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Jonathan Clark - perennial Plaid Cymru candidate from Monmouth there.

But he's spot on. There's been pressure on the WG to introduce an Ebbw Vale - Newport service almost since day one.

It reiterates points made earlier Welsh Government has form on failing to fund further phases of rail projects. The number of outside Wales posters who naively believe further phases after "core valley lines" conversion to light rail will flow need to heed these lessons.

 

[Dai Corner]

Journey time pure and simple local buses go into housing estates etc Newbridge Is Near an hour out by bus the trains would be nearer 20 minutes.

45 mins for the quickest and most frequent bus. The train takes 21 mins from Newbridge to Pye Corner so say 30 mins to Newport. Then you need to add on the additional time to walk to the station rather than your nearest bus stop (serving housing estates reduces that of course) and an average of 30 mins wait for the train rather than 5 for the bus. It's not that clear cut.

 

[MarkyT]

45 mins for the quickest and most frequent bus. The train takes 21 mins from Newbridge to Pye Corner so say 30 mins to Newport. Then you need to add on the additional time to walk to the station rather than your nearest bus stop (serving housing estates reduces that of course) and an average of 30 mins wait for the train rather than 5 for the bus. It's not that clear cut.

Theoretically, average waiting time is considered to be half the service interval, but in reality people usually try to arrange their regular schedules around a known timetable and set off from comfortable places they can wait, such as work or home, on foot or connecting transport mode at a convenient realistic time to make their expected departure time, without waiting endlessly as if the times are actually random. Performance can also be observed in real time today, so you can even know about delays to avoid waiting around in the rain. Long interchange waits between poorly coordinated connections once you're under way are far more annoying.

 

[Dai Corner]

Theoretically, average waiting time is considered to be half the service interval, but in reality people usually try to arrange their regular schedules around a known timetable and set off from comfortable places they can wait, such as work or home, on foot or connecting transport mode at a convenient realistic time to make their expected departure time, without waiting endlessly as if the times are actually random. Performance can also be observed in real time today, so you can even know about delays to avoid waiting around in the rain. Long interchange waits between poorly coordinated connections once you're under way are far more annoying.

True, but our hypothetical Newbridge-Newport traveller can set off for the bus stop without paying too much attention to the time in the knowledge that there will be a bus along within ten minutes instead of timing his trip to coincide with the train and perhaps having to waste up to an hour before his appointment, starting time at work or whatever.

Perhaps I'm spoiled by having 4 buses and hour to Cardiff and 10 to Newport within a few minutes walk!