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Virgin Trains East Coast franchise to end 24 June 2018 and is temporarily re-nationalised

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Qwerty133

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In which case how do you propose to continue to serve Harrogate, Sunderland, Hull, Lincoln, Aberdeen and Inverness along with possibly serving Middlesbrough and Huddersfield?
I don't propose that they continue with the current service level. Sadly I believe it is impossible for the current intercity service to be maintained on all mainlines past 2020 unless manual door HSTs are allowed to continue in service, something I am strongly against, and that northern Scotland and almost parliamentary level services have to be seen as less important than core MML services when deciding what should be cut. I think it is just about possible for the 5 coach Bi-Modes to remain on the ECML on this basis to provide a limited service to destinations north of Edinburgh, but the short distance extensions just off the wires are luxuries that cannot be maintained without inconveniencing more people elsewhere and will need to be paused or stopped (Hull will of course continue to get Hull Trains services and Lincoln could be served off the MML).
 
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matt_world2004

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If they are going to run VTEC as a concession model how are they going to prevent stagecoach from making a profit?
 

Elecman

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If they are going to run VTEC as a concession model how are they going to prevent stagecoach from making a profit?

Presumably as a fixed fee type operation, all receipts to the DfT and the Operator paid a fixed fee for each train they run
 

FQTV

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That is true to be fair. They've refurbished the whole VTEC fleet to some extent.

I think that a cosmetic refresh costing around £20,000 per carriage was the extent.

It was his Patrick McLoughlin who awarded the East Coast franchise to VTEC. Also Northern to Arriva and TPE to First, if I remember correctly. They may be the next ones to have problems as a result of electrification schemes running late.

Although I accept that it's perhaps only implicit here, it's also perhaps worth repeating that others report that no infrastructure 'promises' have not yet been met on the ECML. Future ones may be in doubt, but Virgin Trains East Coast's financial performance to date is entirely its responsibility, as I understand it.

I assume the Azumas will still be zooming in 2019

The Satsumas are nothing whatever to do with the operating company. They will come, whether it's Waitroserail or Alditrains or Co-Opcarriages. In the meantime, I hope that the DfT and Agility Trains will bill Virgin Trains East Coast for the fruity mobile billboards that they've been providing for the last few years.

I suspect that in addition to the fact that they have lost 200M after payments to government of 800M, thus are making an operating loss of at least 200M, they are also faced with upcoming competition from the Transpenine TOC and from Open Access First which they probably did not (correctly) account for in their bid.. I am not a supporter of VTEC but what is happening causes me to question the whole methodology by which Franchises are let.

Again, nothing about the current predicament is anything to do with what may or may not happen in the future. Their over-promising and underdelivering is entirely down to what's likely to be a complex combination of poor judgement, ego, self-belief in their own rhetoric, DfT complicity, shopfloor disaffection and, critically, customers voting hard in the face of shoddy service and marketing that's variously perceived as irrelevant, patronising, arrogant or just plain irritating.

It all went wrong when they got rid of Rewards.

In a nutshell, I think that you may well be right. It's a symptom of their approach to customers, and most especially the ones that deliver solid reliable patronage that covers the base costs of a business. As @SaveECRewards has alluded to before, it's perhaps worth looking (in case it's a barometer) at the postholder in charge of the new website and their professional experience, their proclamations and presentations at various conferences, and to reconcile that with the reality of the rail retail website that we're now presented with.

No one comes out of this cleanly - Stagecoach/VT, in hindsight, have overbid (but who COULD predict circumstances like the last year?), but seeing as a lot of their bid needed investment and infrastructure that NR and the Government haven't delivered - I fear this is one mess no one can fix.

Again, what circumstances? The company didn't sell enough tickets, to enough people, for enough money.

The question must surely be: what can be done to ensure that the operation of the principal service on a key piece of national infrastructure is delivered in the most sustainable, efficient and growth-orientated manner? And how can this be done with reference to environmental considerations, issues of other modal capacity constraints, generating wealth and prosperity, addressing regional developmental and economic aspirations etc., etc?
 

tbwbear

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Wasn't "Voyager" created by Bombardier with Virgin in mind, but presumably Bombardier retained the rights to the name ?

Azuma (which I agree is a truly dreadful name) was just developed by VTEC. Hitachi have never used the name IIRC.


You would have to assume that the introduction of all the new trains will proceed exactly as planned. The new franchisee (if not VTEC itself) will probably use them in almost exactly the same way as VTEC would have done.

Although, having said that, you would never have imagined the crazy situation where the brand new Class 707's on SWT/SWR would be looking for a new home either.
 

Qwerty133

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Wasn't "Voyager" created by Bombardier with Virgin in mind, but presumably Bombardier retained the rights to the name ?

Azuma (which I agree is a truly dreadful name) was just developed by VTEC. Hitachi have never used the name IIRC.


You would have to assume that the introduction of all the new trains will proceed exactly as planned. The new franchisee (if not VTEC itself) will probably use them in almost exactly the same way as VTEC would have done.

Although, having said that, you would never have imagined the crazy situation where the brand new Class 707's on SWT/SWR would be looking for a new home either.
Meridian was presumably created by MML as HT used an alternative name for their 222s but has transferred with the franchise to EMT. Whoever owns the Trade Mark probably has little to no interest or need in preventing others using it.
 

Tetchytyke

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It all went wrong when they got rid of Rewards.

I know you're being sarcastic, but that decision was symptomatic of VTEC. A change for the worse, blatantly cheapskate, being spun as a positive thing we should all be grateful for. It set the store out for what people should expect from them. And overpriced mediocrity, with every corner cut, is pretty much all they've delivered.

And clearly with growth flatlining, it's a strategy that simply hasn't worked.
 

Danfilm007

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Again, what circumstances? The company didn't sell enough tickets, to enough people, for enough money.

The question must surely be: what can be done to ensure that the operation of the principal service on a key piece of national infrastructure is delivered in the most sustainable, efficient and growth-orientated manner? And how can this be done with reference to environmental considerations, issues of other modal capacity constraints, generating wealth and prosperity, addressing regional developmental and economic aspirations etc., etc?

Interestingly, in both collapses of previous ICEC before this they've cited "changing circumstances". In GNER and VTWC's case you can understand that you can't predict the effect of terrorist attacks on the capital destination (even if you have multiple costing adjustments, seeing as a lot more travel is leisure), whereas National Express flat out balls'd it up big time. In black and white, yes they haven't, but whilst the B/W shows one image, the context another all together. However, I agree - we'll only see the numbers and not what happened. A contract has failed, we must find a replacement and fix it, but we need to learn from the past to try and ensure we don't repeat mistakes, not matter how easy it is to say.

Secondly - for all intensive purposes - that's what Stagecoach/Virgin offered! Hence why DfT gave them it?
 

neilm

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If they are going to run VTEC as a concession model how are they going to prevent stagecoach from making a profit?
This would be interesting, if they did the GTR concession it would result in East Coast being run into the ground as VTEC would try and extract as much cash as possible. As this what GTR are doing right now since their 3% profit margin dropped to 1.5% early on in the contract.

If the DfT do this it would be 2 years (if until 2020) it would be a blow.
 

Danfilm007

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So Martin Griffiths keeps saying.

The National Audit Office think differently.

I'm not entirely sure where I remember reading this (FAKE NEWS!), but SC/VT say they were assured, NR say not - there has to be truth in there somewhere - but you can't really deny that this had to have a large impact on future growth on the line seeing as they could offer much more capacity...
 

Tetchytyke

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VTWC's case you can understand that you can't predict the effect of terrorist attacks on the capital destination

I assume you mean VTEC. Has terrorism had an effect? Tiny, if any.

Growth has flatlined simply because Stagecoach thought they could do their usual business of rinsing a captive market. And it turns out this market wasn't quite as captive as they thought it was.
 

DenmarkRail

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I think this was a fundemental flaw in the franchising process, rather than a flaw by the companies...
 

Tetchytyke

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but you can't really deny that this had to have a large impact on future growth on the line

These "promised" improvements weren't in the plan for the next control period. It's fake news to distract from the fact VTEC has failed due to today's greedy mismanagement, not tomorrow's hypothetical infrastructure changes.

The buck stops with Griffiths. No wonder he's doing a video about DA TROOF that wouldn't look out of place on InfoWars.

My own experience is that I took my first ever domestic flight not long after Stagecoach came in and ramped up fares. It was with BA and it was fifty quid- FIFTY QUID!- cheaper than the train. I've only gone back when I've had no other choice.
 

ainsworth74

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Growth has flatlined simply because Stagecoach thought they could do their usual business of rinsing a captive market. And it turns out this market wasn't quite as captive as they thought it was.
Which they should have realised as the only truly captive market tends to be season ticket holders which only make up, from figures I've seen in one of the railway mags, around 10% of VTEC's patronage. Otherwise it's broadly discretionary travel and people who will vote with their feet...
 

matt_world2004

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The DfT have a history of messing up concession contracts southern railway is a prime example of this. How about as a temporary measure TfL sets the concession contract instead of the DfT . the service will probably be run by MTR or arriva but with the strong performance managment of a TfL service. I dont think it should be branded as such, but it will save getting the ORR in.
 

neilm

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I think this was a fundemental flaw in the franchising process, rather than a flaw by the companies...
Indeed asking any company to predict profits for 5 years is more less impossible.

Rail franchises all saw this in 2008 as most ended up in revenue support.
 

3141

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I've just realised that it's only a week since the NAO said they would be investigating Grayling's proposal two months ago to set up a new track and train organisation on the East Coast route. Lots of room for speculating whether his announcement today is a result of what the NAO has already started saying to the DfT. or whether it has anything to do with the "troubling evidence" that Lord Adonis said he was going to share with the DfT.
 

Danfilm007

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I assume you mean VTEC. Has terrorism had an effect? Tiny, if any.

Growth has flatlined simply because Stagecoach thought they could do their usual business of rinsing a captive market. And it turns out this market wasn't quite as captive as they thought it was.

4 terrorist attacks in (near enough) half a year has a "tiny" impact on leisure travel? I'm not sure I agree with you there - it has to have an impact on public confidence - admittedly not massive amounts but if it's being cited as a reason for a profit warning you do have to think it's slightly more serious...

Stagecoach can't have thought they can rinse money out of it quickly - they may have thought like that at the start of SWT nearly 21 years ago but they more than likely don't now. They're not going to throw millions and millions at something they don't believe in for the sake of it, they would have been far over the hill now. There's a difference with growth, especially seeing as the IEP project wasn't procured or organised by them for the most part?
 

Domh245

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The DfT have a history of messing up concession contracts southern railway is a prime example of this. How about as a temporary measure TfL sets the concession contract instead of the DfT . the service will probably be run by MTR or arriva but with the strong performance managment of a TfL service. I dont think it should be branded as such, but it will save getting the ORR in.

Wait, What? TfL organising the operations of a franchise that runs between London and Scotland? I'd suggest that they have more important things to focus on than doing the DfT's legwork for them.
 

backontrack

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My word. It's all kicking off.
Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 22.10.51.png
With Virgin, we are genuinely at the point where you could call the whole thing a fiasco without any hyperbole whatsoever. This is an embarrassment, and national confidence in the franchising system must be at an all-time low. Branson's brand is also more toxic to consumers than at any other time - but, as it's Virgin via Birmingham on the west coast, there is no non-Virgin alternative for those who want to take a train to Edinburgh...

Growth has flatlined simply because Stagecoach thought they could do their usual business of rinsing a captive market. And it turns out this market wasn't quite as captive as they thought it was.

...so they, erm, don't get the train.

In terms of the Virgin service expansion, the whole thing is starting to reek of Operation Princess - Virgin/Stagecoach move in, build up all these ambitions and then are forced to drop them, almost instantaneously. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if the Middlesbrough and Huddersfield plans were quietly dropped - along with the services to Lincoln, the Skipton trains and the Hull Executive...
 
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neilm

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Wait, What? TfL organising the operations of a franchise that runs between London and Scotland? I'd suggest that they have more important things to focus on than doing the DfT's legwork for them.

Well if you read the NAOs report on the GTR contract you would not want the DfT doing another concession contract.
 

Danfilm007

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My word. It's all kicking off.
View attachment 42380
With Virgin, we are genuinely at the point where you could call the whole thing a fiasco without any hyperbole whatsoever. This is an embarrassment, and national confidence in the franchising system must be at an all-time low. Branson's brand is now pretty much toxic.

Who needs full broadsheet coverage when you've got nearly 140 foaming enthusiasts speculating? :lol:
 

matt_world2004

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Wait, What? TfL organising the operations of a franchise that runs between London and Scotland? I'd suggest that they have more important things to focus on than doing the DfT's legwork for them.
The scottish government are responcible for a franchise between London and Scotland . it isnt that out there. And this would be using TfLs contract managment expertise to ensure service reliability.
 

neilm

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Perhaps, but that certainly doesn't mean bringing TfL in.
Indeed, but if they do a concession with VTEC then there will be no investment for the duration of it and it will be run down to the bone.
 

Tetchytyke

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Stagecoach can't have thought they can rinse money out of it quickly

That's exactly what they thought they could do. Like always, they buy into their own hubris about how so much better and more efficient the private sector is.

Stands to reason you can whack fares up and service down and nobody will notice if you slap a shiny sticker on the side. Tell them it's awesome and they won't notice the stench.

DOR made a difficult job look easy, but everybody buys into the hubris that a state company can't run a business, so stands to reason a killing could be made dunnit.
 
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