South Wales 'Metro' updates

[158756]

But there are no plans to build any of those extensions, and nobody knows where the money will come.from.once It's been spent on light rail conversion of the existing lines. Is it worth the risk?

The money will be spent anyway either on electrification or the black hole of heavy rail subsidies. The chance of any extensions being built couldn't be any lower than it currently is.

 

[Del1977]

The Valleys lines are as you said previously a simple system, no multiple lines and junctions to worry about, combine this with CASR hAving eliminated many of the complicating factors affecting Great Western electrification then provided you don't try and build masts designed for high speed rail lines then the overall costs should be nowhere near what we're seeing out of Paddington.

According to the House of Commons library briefing paper, electrification for the South Wales Valley lines has been costed at £738m in 2016.

But there are no plans to build any of those extensions, and nobody knows where the money will come.from.once It's been spent on light rail conversion of the existing lines. Is it worth the risk?

Well they definitely won't be if HR is chosen.

 

[Gareth Marston]

According to the House of Commons library briefing paper, electrification for the South Wales Valley lines has been costed at £738m in 2016.

Just to make sure were comparing apples with apples. What is commonly known as "Valley Lines" is the cross city services that run through Cardiff Queen St, amounting to just over 100 route miles. So that's c£7.25 million per route to electrify.

"Core Valley lines" is the 67 miles of this that Welsh Government want to separate from the national network and convert to Light Rail. So with £600 million identified as the cost in the TfW documents that's £9.00 million a mile to convert to Light Rail leaving 35 miles as diesel operated.

And before we start hearing hysteria about the cost of Great Western electrification where the current 200 route miles to be wired are costing c£14 million per route mile. Please bear in mind that the Valleys are a much more simpler system without multiple running lines, major junctions etc. As I have posted before CASR has done much of the work rolled into the Great Western scheme already and eliminated a number of the problems encountered such as location of signalling cable. Providing we don't try and install masts designed for high speed rail lines in a hurricane then lower prices can be done if the will is there.

 

[Del1977]

The 2016 cost estimate surely takes account of CASR as it does the simplicity of the system.

The point is that the idea HR electrification is a relative bargain compared to LR conversion doesn't appear to hold water.

Relative costs aren't a reason not to convert to LR.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The 2016 cost estimate surely takes account of CASR as it does the simplicity of the system.

The point is that the idea HR electrification is a relative bargain compared to LR conversion doesn't appear to hold water.

Relative costs aren't a reason not to convert to LR.

Lets examine the "benefits" of LRT conversion of "core valley lines" to services to Penarth, City Line, Barry Island and Bridgend via the Vale. There are none, there left out, they have the inconvenience of termination at Central and loss of through journey opportunity's to Queen St etc. Are the bidders going to get a new small bespoke fleet of commuter DMU's for them (plus Maesteg, Ebbw Vale, Cheltenham, Swanline) ? Answer - no -as the wishy washy vague promise of the South Wales Metro marks these areas down as potential future extensions. The current franchise has 36 Class 150/2 DMU's who are having PRM mods these will be what runs those services. No one will get any pay back on new DMU's, no one will take the risk.

So when Mr Jones from the Rhondda valley discovers he has a shiny new tram with no toilet to stand in to get to Cardiff on match day his cousin from Barry will discover the same 1980's rolling stock is still operating to the Vale.

That is a core issue with these proposals it favors investment in certain parts over others it is not inclusive. You have a pre existing network of roughly the same quality that will be broken up and replaced by a two tier one.

 

[Del1977]

Your argument rests on the assumption that there will be no future expansions of the South Wales Metro and no further improvements elsewhere in South Wales over the next twenty five years.

If you have that level of pessimism, then it's probably valid to object to the leaked changes.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Your argument rests on the assumption that there will be no future expansions of the South Wales Metro and no further improvements elsewhere in South Wales over the next twenty five years.

If you have that level of pessimism, then it's probably valid to object to the leaked changes.

The problem is, you have to have that level of pessimism, because that is what it will be like first thing.
The service will be worse than the current situation. Sure if may improve, you may have expansions etc, but on day one of trams running on the valley lines, unless something magical happens, the service will be worse than now.

 

[Del1977]

The problem is, you have to have that level of pessimism, because that is what it will be like first thing.
The service will be worse than the current situation. Sure if may improve, you may have expansions etc, but on day one of trams running on the valley lines, unless something magical happens, the service will be worse than now.

Some winners, some losers. Though arguably, someone with bus replacement services while light rail conversion or electrification is ongoing may consider themselves losers in the short-term, rather than someone on a class 150 - which although old, isn't a bus. All a matter of perspective.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Your argument rests on the assumption that there will be no future expansions of the South Wales Metro and no further improvements elsewhere in South Wales over the next twenty five years.

If you have that level of pessimism, then it's probably valid to object to the leaked changes.

Assumption? lets see we've had the South Wales Mainline electrified and new rolling stock (ok albeit cut back to Cardiff by lie mode Grayling) and then we have a pot of money toward the South Wales Metro. So there will be another pot of money toward rail infrastructure available for South Wales in the mid to late 2020's so it all rolls on as add on schemes? So there are no competing demands at a UK level such as connecting local lines to HS2, HS2 itself then? South Wales getting anymore UK money seems very remote for many ,many years. Its had its turn.

Then there's the Welsh Government the current First Minister wants his legacy to be an open cheque on huge road building schemes (M4 Relief Road, dualling the A465 Heads of Valleys Road) how do you fund future schemes on the South Wales Metro if the devolved budget is committed to roads and the UK says South Wales has had its turn its someone else s?

Lets look at a practical real life example of how the Welsh Government has progressed further stages of a rail scheme - The Ebbw Vale reopening. The valley was promised that direct trains to Newport and reopening the short branch to Abertillery were to follow the reopening to Ebbw Vale in 2008. 10 years on and nothing has happened and whats more neither of these schemes has appeared as Blue ones for the South Wales Metro plans but as further study, further stages after the Phase 2 has been completed. Real Politick.

Unless there's a massive sea change in attitudes to public transport and transport per see in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay in the next few years expecting a magic money tree to float down the Bristol Channel and into Cardiff Bay is the only way the Metro will have worthwhile rolling phases rather than a few desultory small schemes.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Some winners, some losers. Though arguably, someone with bus replacement services while light rail conversion or electrification is ongoing may consider themselves losers in the short-term, rather than someone on a class 150 - which although old, isn't a bus. All a matter of perspective.

It didn't cause rioting in the streets in Manchester.

 

[gareth950]

Some winners, some losers. Though arguably, someone with bus replacement services while light rail conversion or electrification is ongoing may consider themselves losers in the short-term, rather than someone on a class 150 - which although old, isn't a bus. All a matter of perspective.

The Valleys does not have the road network of SE England. You cannot close down the network for weeks or months at a time to LR convert it. Journey times by replacement bus are double or even triple that of the train.
Most people would revert to the car and the traffic congestion down from the Valleys would be beyond horrendous. The A470 would be a permanent daily car park.
Not going to happen.

 

[MarkyT]

But there are no plans to build any of those extensions, and nobody knows where the money will come from once It's been spent on light rail conversion of the existing lines. Is it worth the risk?

Whether any such extensions happen in the short term is not really the point. Having a fleet capable of running on such more lightly constructed branches, with tighter turns, steeper gradients, and the ability to cross roads on the level as well as follow road alignments where necessary without complete heavy rail style segregation provides the flexibility to build them at some point in the future.

 

[MarkyT]

The Valleys lines are as you said previously a simple system, no multiple lines and junctions to worry about, combine this with CASR hAving eliminated many of the complicating factors affecting Great Western electrification then provided you don't try and build masts designed for high speed rail lines then the overall costs should be nowhere near what we're seeing out of Paddington.

Very true, but a lower voltage DC OHLE system could be even cheaper. And easier to build perhaps mostly in overnight possessions with few additional service shutdowns required.

 

[Del1977]

So much to respond to...

The Valleys does not have the road network of SE England. You cannot close down the network for weeks or months at a time to LR convert it. Journey times by replacement bus are double or even triple that of the train.
Most people would revert to the car and the traffic congestion down from the Valleys would be beyond horrendous. The A470 would be a permanent daily car park.
Not going to happen.

Two points:

1. Heavy rail electrification would also result in track possessions, shutdowns and replacement buses.
2. You aren't seriously trying to assert that the South Wales Valleys are more congested than the South East of England? I've lived in both areas. I can tell you as a matter of fact that London is more congested.

Assumption? lets see we've had the South Wales Mainline electrified and new rolling stock (ok albeit cut back to Cardiff by lie mode Grayling) and then we have a pot of money toward the South Wales Metro. So there will be another pot of money toward rail infrastructure available for South Wales in the mid to late 2020's so it all rolls on as add on schemes? So there are no competing demands at a UK level such as connecting local lines to HS2, HS2 itself then? South Wales getting anymore UK money seems very remote for many ,many years. Its had its turn.

Then there's the Welsh Government the current First Minister wants his legacy to be an open cheque on huge road building schemes (M4 Relief Road, dualling the A465 Heads of Valleys Road) how do you fund future schemes on the South Wales Metro if the devolved budget is committed to roads and the UK says South Wales has had its turn its someone else s?

Lets look at a practical real life example of how the Welsh Government has progressed further stages of a rail scheme - The Ebbw Vale reopening. The valley was promised that direct trains to Newport and reopening the short branch to Abertillery were to follow the reopening to Ebbw Vale in 2008. 10 years on and nothing has happened and whats more neither of these schemes has appeared as Blue ones for the South Wales Metro plans but as further study, further stages after the Phase 2 has been completed. Real Politick.

Unless there's a massive sea change in attitudes to public transport and transport per see in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay in the next few years expecting a magic money tree to float down the Bristol Channel and into Cardiff Bay is the only way the Metro will have worthwhile rolling phases rather than a few desultory small schemes.

We don't know what future funding will be available. We don't know whether the WAG will borrow money / issue bonds. We don't know what they hope to raise in fares. We also don't know whether they plan a congestion charge, a levy on council tax etc. etc. We don't know what they hope to do with fares. We don't know the operational costs of LR versus the existing system.

If we were to approach any transport project with such trepidation about the future and potential sources of funding, there'd be no Manchester Metrolink.

 

[Gareth Marston]

So much to respond to...

We don't know what future funding will be available. We don't know whether the WAG will borrow money / issue bonds. We don't know what they hope to raise in fares. We also don't know whether they plan a congestion charge, a levy on council tax etc. etc. We don't know what they hope to do with fares. We don't know the operational costs of LR versus the existing system.

If we were to approach any transport project with such trepidation about the future and potential sources of funding, there'd be no Manchester Metrolink.

I see so Light Rail conversion is a leap of blind faith rather than a rational assessment of current and future policy based on existing behavior and example?

Its taken Manchester Metrolink 26 years to get to where it is now and form the very outset its been a cross city system. Nor has it been the magic answer to everything in and around Manchester there's been heavy rail electrification, ordsall curve etc as well.

Whilst we wait 25 years for funding to come through what happens to the non core valley lines in the meantime?

Start with Heavy Rail electrification first , get your base line and then expand.

 

[WelshBluebird]

We don't know what future funding will be available. We don't know whether the WAG will borrow money / issue bonds. We don't know what they hope to raise in fares. We also don't know whether they plan a congestion charge, a levy on council tax etc. etc. We don't know what they hope to do with fares. We don't know the operational costs of LR versus the existing system.

And you don't see all the "we don't knows" as a problem?

Surely these questions should have clear answers and be known to the public, well before any actual decisions are actually made? Does the fact this is all being hidden away from us not worry you?

As I have said before, my problem isn't light rail. My problem is the way the WG have managed this and the decisions they are making that will give us a light rail system that is worse than our current HR system.

 

[Chester1]

Has there been an indication of what order the lines be converted? I would not be surprised if conversion is limited to Radyr, Coryton, Rhymeny and the bay with DMUs running via the City Line to Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr. I am not saying this is a good plan but could easily be the result of cost overruns if other lines are converted first. Where will the depot be?

 

[PHILIPE]

There are so many suggestions and queries on this and the franchise thread but I don't think we shall no much more until the Welsh Government stop conforming to the Official Secrets Act and come out into the open when the successful bidder is announced unless this will be a secret as well when the time comes.

 

[gareth950]

There are so many suggestions and queries on this and the franchise thread but I don't think we shall no much more until the Welsh Government stop conforming to the Official Secrets Act and come out into the open when the successful bidder is announced unless this will be a secret as well when the time comes.

The most interesting development recently is the collapse of Carillion. Abellio must be hoping that NR keep control of the Valley lines, as without a construction partner that's the only chance they have of winning the competition. Either that or because they've already submitted their bid and paid their fees they've got nothing to lose by staying till the end.
There's no doubt going by the lack of any info in their statement other than 'no comment' they were muzzled by Skates and TfW.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Assumption? lets see we've had the South Wales Mainline electrified and new rolling stock (ok albeit cut back to Cardiff by lie mode Grayling) and then we have a pot of money toward the South Wales Metro. So there will be another pot of money toward rail infrastructure available for South Wales in the mid to late 2020's so it all rolls on as add on schemes? So there are no competing demands at a UK level such as connecting local lines to HS2, HS2 itself then? South Wales getting anymore UK money seems very remote for many ,many years. Its had its turn.

Then there's the Welsh Government the current First Minister wants his legacy to be an open cheque on huge road building schemes (M4 Relief Road, dualling the A465 Heads of Valleys Road) how do you fund future schemes on the South Wales Metro if the devolved budget is committed to roads and the UK says South Wales has had its turn its someone else s?

Lets look at a practical real life example of how the Welsh Government has progressed further stages of a rail scheme - The Ebbw Vale reopening. The valley was promised that direct trains to Newport and reopening the short branch to Abertillery were to follow the reopening to Ebbw Vale in 2008. 10 years on and nothing has happened and whats more neither of these schemes has appeared as Blue ones for the South Wales Metro plans but as further study, further stages after the Phase 2 has been completed. Real Politick.

Unless there's a massive sea change in attitudes to public transport and transport per see in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay in the next few years expecting a magic money tree to float down the Bristol Channel and into Cardiff Bay is the only way the Metro will have worthwhile rolling phases rather than a few desultory small schemes.

Do you think really there's going to be any more money available if the network is kept as heavy rail?

The network is a financial basket case and no amount of nice toilets and seating capacity is going to fix it. HR operations will always require significant subsidy. Most of the sorts of improvements you want would require the Welsh or British governments to commit to additional subsidy in perpetuity. The upfront capital cost of an investment is dwarfed by the long-term costs or revenues of running it. The only investment schemes which end up happening anywhere in the UK are ones which have a good case for either reducing subsidy, or increasing it by less than the social benefit it brings.

The only way the Valley Lines network can be made more financially self-sustaining is if it's moved away from the expenses of heavy rail. In good times and bad, with the best or worst of governments, a financially self-sustaining system will always have an easier time benefiting the local community than one which acts as a money pit. It's not about how friendly a government is to public transport. If they don't like it, they'll appreciate having a system which doesn't cost them a lot of taxpayer's money. If they do like it, they've got the option of investing even more in it to reduce fares or increase service provision.

Conversion provides a grounding for other lines to open up in time. As a network gets bigger, it becomes more financially self-sustaining because the fixed costs are spread over more passenger revenue while the network effect makes it even more useful for passenger journeys. For instance, you could start out with a relatively simple upgrade/LR conversion of the Cardiff Bay line. Then, in time, you can consider laying street running tracks from this line up to somewhere in Cardiff not served well by the existing or HR systems. This totally new line could build on the passengers already using the LR sections as well as costs like maintenance and infrastructure. Bit by bit you can expand on these new sections, like what's happening on the West Midlands Metro. The point is that without the initial conversion, the costs involved in building that same line wouldn't be so easily justified. Building that same line would require building out LR maintenance and operational systems from scratch, while the line would have to build up passenger numbers from nothing rather than something.

What I don't think we're going to see is irrevocable conversion of the core Valley Lines. Over the coming decades, the LR network can build up passenger numbers and revenues until the basic technology is no longer sufficient. At that point, you might have multiple lines involving pure street running as well as the original HR-style segregated traffic. That's the point when it makes perfect financial and operational sense to look at upgrading the segregated sections back up to a more traditional metro. Manchester is now getting to a point where Metrolink won't handle projected passenger volumes, so the city is seriously going to have to consider something bigger. There's no way things can ever grow like that if you're hamstrung by the limitation of heavy rail.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The most interesting development recently is the collapse of Carillion. Abellio must be hoping that NR keep control of the Valley lines, as without a construction partner that's the only chance they have of winning the competition. Either that or because they've already submitted their bid and paid their fees they've got nothing to lose by staying till the end.
There's no doubt going by the lack of any info in their statement other than 'no comment' they were muzzled by Skates and TfW.

Indeed it was very terse almost said through gritted teeth like it wasn't what they really wanted to say.

 

[Del1977]

Do you think really there's going to be any more money available if the network is kept as heavy rail?

The network is a financial basket case and no amount of nice toilets and seating capacity is going to fix it. HR operations will always require significant subsidy. Most of the sorts of improvements you want would require the Welsh or British governments to commit to additional subsidy in perpetuity. The upfront capital cost of an investment is dwarfed by the long-term costs or revenues of running it. The only investment schemes which end up happening anywhere in the UK are ones which have a good case for either reducing subsidy, or increasing it by less than the social benefit it brings.

The only way the Valley Lines network can be made more financially self-sustaining is if it's moved away from the expenses of heavy rail. In good times and bad, with the best or worst of governments, a financially self-sustaining system will always have an easier time benefiting the local community than one which acts as a money pit. It's not about how friendly a government is to public transport. If they don't like it, they'll appreciate having a system which doesn't cost them a lot of taxpayer's money. If they do like it, they've got the option of investing even more in it to reduce fares or increase service provision.

Conversion provides a grounding for other lines to open up in time. As a network gets bigger, it becomes more financially self-sustaining because the fixed costs are spread over more passenger revenue while the network effect makes it even more useful for passenger journeys. For instance, you could start out with a relatively simple upgrade/LR conversion of the Cardiff Bay line. Then, in time, you can consider laying street running tracks from this line up to somewhere in Cardiff not served well by the existing or HR systems. This totally new line could build on the passengers already using the LR sections as well as costs like maintenance and infrastructure. Bit by bit you can expand on these new sections, like what's happening on the West Midlands Metro. The point is that without the initial conversion, the costs involved in building that same line wouldn't be so easily justified. Building that same line would require building out LR maintenance and operational systems from scratch, while the line would have to build up passenger numbers from nothing rather than something.

What I don't think we're going to see is irrevocable conversion of the core Valley Lines. Over the coming decades, the LR network can build up passenger numbers and revenues until the basic technology is no longer sufficient. At that point, you might have multiple lines involving pure street running as well as the original HR-style segregated traffic. That's the point when it makes perfect financial and operational sense to look at upgrading the segregated sections back up to a more traditional metro. Manchester is now getting to a point where Metrolink won't handle projected passenger volumes, so the city is seriously going to have to consider something bigger. There's no way things can ever grow like that if you're hamstrung by the limitation of heavy rail.

If peak demand is as high as stated, and the system is a financial basket case, then pretty clear that fares are too low.

Increase fares to those in the South East.

(Ducks and runs for cover).

 

[WelshBluebird]

HR operations will always require significant subsidy.

So this may be a bit off topic, but why is that a bad thing? Using public money for something that is important to the public. Funding public roads is technically a subsidy, but that is never seen as a bad. Same for schools etc. So why is public subsidy suddenly a bad thing when rail is the topic?

What I don't think we're going to see is irrevocable conversion of the core Valley Lines.

But that is what the WG is suggesting is it not?

 

[gareth950]

So this may be a bit off topic, but why is that a bad thing? Using public money for something that is important to the public. Funding public roads is technically a subsidy, but that is never seen as a bad. Same for schools etc. So why is public subsidy suddenly a bad thing when rail is the topic?

But that is what the WG is suggesting is it not?

I still dont think WG knows what its suggesting, as it stated to bidders last year that freight operations on the Valleys will be continuing for the forseeable future. I've read that if the Swansea tidal lagoon ever gets the go ahead there is a slate quarry on one of the MTA lines that will provide stone for it.
Cwmbargoed and Aberthaw are still open for the forseeable future.

 

[NotATrainspott]

If peak demand is as high as stated, and the system is a financial basket case, then pretty clear that fares are too low.

Increase fares to those in the South East.

(Ducks and runs for cover).

I addressed this in a previous post. The SE England rail network can be self-sustaining because fares are high. Passengers then pay those high fares because it's their only real option. The jobs available in London are largely unavailable elsewhere in the UK, and housing costs in London itself are so high that even an extortionate season ticket cost is reasonable in comparison. The same enormous salary/cost-of-living gap is not the case in Cardiff, and if fares were raised people would either move out of the Valleys or out of South Wales completely. There's a hard limit on the amount of revenue that can practically be extracted from commuters in the Valleys, and LR has a better chance of being near or under it than HR does.

So this may be a bit off topic, but why is that a bad thing? Using public money for something that is important to the public. Funding public roads is technically a subsidy, but that is never seen as a bad. Same for schools etc. So why is public subsidy suddenly a bad thing when rail is the topic?

Subsidy isn't bad. The problem is that anything you subsidise means money isn't available to go to other needy causes, either in transport or in wider public services. Transport is something a government can have a major influence in which is also directly able to provide revenue to cover its costs. We don't think about subsidising schools or hospitals so much because you can't practically get revenue in return for those services.

If a system requires a lot of subsidy to provide a certain level of benefit, then it is entirely reasonable for governments to try to either get more benefit for the same money, or the same benefit for less money. If there are real efficiencies to be made, then the existing system must be in some way inefficient, and inefficient government spending helps no-one.

But that is what the WG is suggesting is it not?

By irrevocable I mean actively going around demolishing existing alignments. The Oldham Loop conversion works involved demolishing viaducts and closing tunnels to force street running, which makes it much more irrevocable than, say, the Altrincham line. When the Luas Green Line was built in Dublin they kept most of the southern section as a segregated metro so that it could, in future, be converted into a heavier non-street-running system.

In Cardiff, that could mean the Coryton and Bay branches are rebuilt permanently to be LR-only, but the line between Queen Street and Heath would remain segregated. Eventually once passenger levels are high enough, an alternative street running route could be provided between the two. The LR-only sections would be joined up with LR-only track, while the segregated former HR route could specialise for higher-capacity metro trains not outfitted for street running. A Queen Street to Heath street running line won't be justifiable today because passenger numbers aren't high enough and the costs would be too much to bear, but in future it could be an essential capacity boost for the network that would pay for itself.

 

[MarkyT]

The Oldham Loop conversion works involved demolishing viaducts and closing tunnels to force street running, which makes it much more irrevocable than, say, the Altrincham line.

The old Mumps station was inconveniently sited the wrong side of a major road, accessed via an unpleasant subway. The new tram stops are far more convenient and the new alignment is well designed, with much segregation and effective prioritisation at junctions.

. . . the segregated former HR route could specialise for higher-capacity metro trains not outfitted for street running. A Queen Street to Heath street running line won't be justifiable today because passenger numbers aren't high enough and the costs would be too much to bear, but in future it could be an essential capacity boost for the network that would pay for itself.

A pair of those 50m articulated tram-train units coupled together would be similar in size and capacity to a deep level London tube train or one of the 3 car DLR trains.

 

[gareth950]

A pair of those 50m articulated tram-train units coupled together would be similar in size and capacity to a deep level London tube train or one of the 3 car DLR trains.

Where has it been confirmed anywhere the Valleys are getting tram-trains, or that tram-trains are being considered?
How can you tell from looking at a non-specific planning application?

 

[MarkyT]

Where has it been confirmed anywhere the Valleys are getting tram-trains, or that tram-trains are being considered?
How can you tell from looking at a non-specific planning application?

I admit it's an educated guess. The CAF product line (for example) includes an Urbos TT product where the TT stands for tram train (although there's very little detail about these on their website), and if freight is going to continue to interrun on certain parts of the network, then conventional signalling and tram-train vehicles will be essential at least on those sections. A modern high floor tram-train or light metro vehicle derived from tram technology would be a formidable product for the UK.

 

[gareth950]

I admit it's an educated guess. The CAF product line (for example) includes an Urbos TT product where the TT stands for tram train (although there's very little detail about these on their website), and if freight is going to continue to interrun on certain parts of the network, then conventional signalling and tram-train vehicles will be essential at least on those sections. A modern high floor tram-train or light metro vehicle derived from tram technology would be a formidable product for the UK.

My overall point is that a hell of a lot of assumptions are being made on this thread based on a 'Task 1 Screening - Strategic habitats Regulations Assessment' carried out for Welsh Govt, published last August, even before the ITT was issued to bidders.

And unless these are diesel bi-mode tram trains (in which case, what's the point?), you'll still have the same problem of a cross-city network being split at Queen St / Central.
I'm still yet to hear a case from the LR enthusiasts of how to deal with that. (Remember: no wiring is planned for the Barry, Vale or City lines)

 

[MarkyT]

Remember: no wiring is planned for the Barry, Vale or City lines)

While it's true there's no NR 25kV wiring planned for the VOG anymore, my educated guessometer goes on to predict there could be a very good case to install some DC overhead installed as far as Barry. Cheaper and more efficient than all the trams having to carry a gen-set. Bridgend services would remain HR using DMUs or bi-modes that could then run on along the main line under the AC wires to the Newport area for Ebbw Vale, Marches or Chepstow, along with the Maesteg trains.