Therefore bidders are going to have to waste a deal of money (with the tight timescales increasing the cost) making existing units compliant that they then ditch a couple of years later. It looks like disastrous management by TfW.
That, or keeping the 150s long-term despite much reduced need for them once the ValleyLines are electrified, was always going to be the case due to the end date of ATW's franchise being too close to the 2020 PRM deadline to realistically order new trains.
Class 230s (as the D Trains are now termed) are one option. There are others, but I don't think it's possible to replace the whole existing fleet in time
I don't think the class 769 order has been cancelled, has it? So if the 769s are late, the 150s will be made compliant late, does the PRM legislation say anything about what happens if there is a plan in place to meet the deadline but implementation of that plan is delayed through no fault of the operator? The 158s I'm not sure are non-compliant anyway; the toilets dump onto the track which needs sorting but that's not a PRM thing. In what other respects do ATW's 158s differ from the GWR green 158s, which I believe are compliant?
As for the rest of the fleet, Greater Anglia's nine complaint class 156s are due off lease by the end of 2019; if the winning bidder for Wales & Borders can obtain them that's the 153s dealt with. If they can also get their hands on the five 156s ScotRail will be releasing (Dec 2018 possibly) that is four or five 150s moved to the valleys and, in turn, four or five Pacers gone. That leaves 25 Pacers, minus another couple when the 150s are all back from getting the PRM mods. There are 16 class 170s to be released elsewhere (some from ScotRail and some from GA) which could also be obtained to cascade 150s to replace Pacers, although EMT are likely to need those to replace their 153s. So, as you say, class 230s could be used but only, I hope, to replace the Pacers directly. That just leaves the two mark 3 rakes with no easy solution, unless CAF can tag on a few extra coaches to TPE's mark 5 order or Virgin East Coast release some mark 4s in time.
Hardly - the ROSCO is not to blame. Welsh Govt were warned by Porterbrook in October 2013 when Porterbrook gave evidence to an Assembly transport committee that Welsh Govt needed to take immediate action to start making plans to start modifying Wales' fleet to get it ready in time for 2020 without severe shortages due to trains being sent away. Welsh govt repeatedly ignored more warnings until last year when Ken Skates started to panic. He first blamed the DfT (as usual) then finally ordered 5 x 769s last July. If it hadn't been for the 2020 deadline those trains would not have been ordered.
I agree that the 769s, or something better, should have been ordered sooner; and that they would not have been ordered if the PRM deadline did not exist. However, I think the fact that somebody (presumably the ROSCO) had promissed the 769s would be in service this summer has got to count for something, and if the ROSCO fails to deliver the trains when expected that is not the fault of the TOCs or Welsh Government.
Disastrous mismanagement by first Welsh Govt, and now TfW. But I'm sure ATW, DfT and Porterbrook will be blamed somehow. It will be anyone's fault but Welsh Govt's.
I don't think anyone, except perhaps ATW, should come out of this with a clean face. The DfT should be blamed for letting a no-growth franchise with an end date so close to the PRM deadline, the Welsh Government should be blamed for not stepping in sooner to get additional trains ordered ahead of reletting the franchise and, if the 769s don't appear this summer as announced, Porterbrook (or their supplier) should be blamed for that.
Pacers running services usually operated by 150s will anoy passengers
Are the ValleyLines continuously welded rail? If they are, then it might not be too much of a problem provided enough additional Pacers can be found. ATW's Pacers and 150s are equally awful in most respects, with the main benift of the 150s being that they are bigger and hence contain more seats. A pair of Pacers replacing a single 150 therefore could be considered an improvement.
