Next midland main line franchise?

[Breadman]

Hey all
Does anyone know anything about the future of the MML and EMT? I heard somewhere that virgin were gonna hold the next franchise :-\

 

[KashmireHawker]

The Bidders are the incumbent Stagecoach, Arriva and First/Trenitalia. Virgin are more looking towards Cross-Country and wanting to hold on to West Coast

 

[meolebrace]

Needs more competition not less

 

[Clip]

Needs more competition not less

In what way?

 

[whhistle]

Where did you hear that?
Virgin aren't interested in the MML - too small for them.

 

[gazthomas]

Needs more competition not less

Indeed we do as Stagecoach own, or at least part own the 3 major north-south franchises

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Virgin will only be a minority partner with Stagecoach in any new franchises it bids for.
The West Coast Partnership bid is only 30% Virgin, with 50% Stagecoach and 20% SNCF, compared to the current VTWC (51% Virgin, 49% Stagecoach).
And Virgin is not interested in East Midlands.
In fact EM might also be a problem for Stagecoach as the WCP/EM bids are likely to run in parallel this year, with the WCP ITT now 2 months late.

 

[DarloRich]

Where did you hear that?
Virgin aren't interested in the MML - too small for them.

old school spotter wibble. Quite how Virgin could " hold" a future contract before any franchise "competition" is unclear!

 

[LowLevel]

Virgin will only be a minority partner with Stagecoach in any new franchises it bids for.
The West Coast Partnership bid is only 30% Virgin, with 50% Stagecoach and 20% SNCF, compared to the current VTWC (51% Virgin, 49% Stagecoach).
And Virgin is not interested in East Midlands.
In fact EM might also be a problem for Stagecoach as the WCP/EM bids are likely to run in parallel this year, with the WCP ITT now 2 months late.

I would lay my 50p on the EM direct award being extended again to match the Cross Country franchise.

 

[A0]

I would lay my 50p on the EM direct award being extended again to match the Cross Country franchise.

I'm expecting EMT to lose - not because they've done anything wrong, but because currently Stagecoach have two of the three Inter City franchises heading north from London. On the whole I think EMT do a good job - they're likely to get the blame (unreasonably IMO) for the next timetable change which is being done in preparation for the 2 tph to Corby.

I'm no fan of them, but First have to be in with a shout - apart from their bus interests in Leicester and Sheffield and TPE running through Sheffield they don't have much of a presence - whereas Stagecoach have bus operations alongside the MML from Bedford to Leicester, all across Lincolnshire, an area of East Midlands and Sheffield including the tram.

 

[Domh245]

Virgin wouldn't be interested because it isn't an "MML franchise", it's an easy Midlands and so the glamorous high speed London work also comes with stopping trains all over the east Midlands.

I don't think that how many other franchises they may hold comes into consideration when assessing bids (presumably they are assessed blind from an early stage?) Just the bid itself. But you may well still be right, based on the relative success of both stagecoach and first with regards to franchise awards of late

 

[LowLevel]

I'm expecting EMT to lose - not because they've done anything wrong, but because currently Stagecoach have two of the three Inter City franchises heading north from London. On the whole I think EMT do a good job - they're likely to get the blame (unreasonably IMO) for the next timetable change which is being done in preparation for the 2 tph to Corby.

I'm no fan of them, but First have to be in with a shout - apart from their bus interests in Leicester and Sheffield and TPE running through Sheffield they don't have much of a presence - whereas Stagecoach have bus operations alongside the MML from Bedford to Leicester, all across Lincolnshire, an area of East Midlands and Sheffield including the tram.

The bids are anonymised. Other franchises are an irrelevance.

 

[whhistle]

First have to be in with a shout - apart from their bus interests in Leicester and Sheffield...

Which, if some (bus) drivers were to be believed, First are getting less and less interested in the bus market and getting more excited about some sort of train-only business.

Wonder if Arriva will loose Cross Country but gain East Mids.
First would be a good option as well especially from a staff free travel point of view.

But then I am biased - Among other things, I have never liked the "toy town" look of the Stagecoach livery!

 

[Lincoln]

I'm expecting EMT to lose

EMT is the franchise run by the owning group.

So it in itself doesn’t win or lose anything.

 

[A0]

EMT is the franchise run by the owning group.

So it in itself doesn’t win or lose anything.

Well, OK - to be pedantic, I expect Stagecoach to lose.

 

[A0]

The bids are anonymised. Other franchises are an irrelevance.

I suspect with some careful reading it would be possible to deduce or at least hazard a very educated guess as to who the bidder is.

 

[LowLevel]

I suspect with some careful reading it would be possible to deduce or at least hazard a very educated guess as to who the bidder is.

Quite possibly but I do find all these 'x will win, y will win' etc posts irritating because it's patently obvious that at present, nothing has happened or is happening - the services the franchise will operate haven't even been determined yet

 

[Muzer]

EMT is the franchise run by the owning group.

So it in itself doesn’t win or lose anything.

If you're going to be pedantic, I'd like to point out that you're wrong. The name of the franchise is simply East Midlands. East Midlands Trains Limited is the company operating that franchise, owned by Stagecoach. So it is, indeed, accurate to talk about EMT losing the franchise.

 

[mallard]

I really hope Stagecoach lose. While they seem to have a very rose-tinted image on this forum, as a daily commuter whose local station is (I believe) the busiest station on the network served solely by EMT (although you'd never guess that from the service pattern) I haven't seen anything in the last few years to suggest that they're in any way above average.

Advance (and other unregulated) ticket prices have risen at an eyewatering pace, staion and train advertising (much of which is painfully insulting and patronising) has made the use of headphones while travelling a neciessity, all advertising for non-London destinations has been dropped (they clearly don't care about anyone not travelling to/from London; see also information issued during disruption), official customer information releases directly contradict the NRCoT, Leicester station is in a deplorable state (the departure display in the "down" side waiting room has been broken/switched off for years, the main concourse departure board has been replaced by a much smaller and less prominently placed version to make room for an advertising billboard, the platforms are dirty and the lifts break on a weekly basis; the last time that station recieved any non-trivial attention must have been when BR demolished most of it in the 1970s) and they can't even field enough HST stock to run at full capactity (while still loaning out stock to VTEC daily, AFAIK)!

 

[Lukespenceruk1]

Out if interested when a franchise is bid for will others be taken into account. For example first group have GWR, SWR, Etc.. so will there performance be taken into consideration when and if they bid for another franchise?...

 

[Domh245]

Out if interested when a franchise is bid for will others be taken into account. For example first group have GWR, SWR, Etc.. so will there performance be taken into consideration when and if they bid for another franchise?...

@LowLevel says that the bids are anonymised, so it would be theoretically impossible for the bids to be assessed on how the bidder is operating elsewhere.

 

[Muzer]

I've said it before and I'll say it again - the whole thing of keeping bids totally top secret is complete rubbish. Very little of the information in a bid is actually commercially-sensitive, and that which is can easily be redacted (eg the financial records of the company). Given rail franchises are in the public interest, it's frankly shocking that the bids aren't public knowledge. Besides this, other industries have in the past managed fine with public-knowledge bids - Ofcom when selling off capacity on a BBC-owned television multiplex released all the bids (with that little sensitive information redacted) pretty much as they came in. If bids for space on BBC's TV multiplexes is public knowledge, surely bids for operations on our railway should also be.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The "Partnership" model may raise it's head for this procurement.
NR's LNE route runs the MML as well as the ECML, which DfT has declared will be a partnership between the ICEC TOC and NR LNE Route.
If they are bent on integrating track and train, you could imagine a similar deal with East Midlands, or even to combine the two JVs.
But this model is still in its infancy, and there's West Coast and now East Coast to do first, so maybe EM will miss this one.
And then we don't know what leeway will be given to the franchise winner over acquiring new trains.
VTEC and GWR had no choice but to run the IEPs they were gifted by DfT, and WCP will be the same with HS2 stock.

 

[DenmarkRail]

No to Virgin because they want to be seen as the company who run fast 'sexy' trains, not the company which runs the small lines like Derby to Crewe with 153s. I'd be very happy to see Arriva win this, and I'd be excited to see what Arriva could bring to a more confined network of IC style trains, while using their knowledge from other franchises, to operate the regional services.

Someone also mentioned that Virgin want XC back... I would love to see that happen, and I am known for saying that I don't remember half the problems XC has today, when Virgin ran it. I can't see Virgin bidding again for this. The fundamentals of Virgin Trains as a whole have changed, and I think the network has too many problems, for what Virgin want. Remember both Franchises they hold, have been run when there was not a challenge from the incumbent operator, and where there were few problems that needed to be fixed. EC already was one of the 'best' operators, and the fleet renewal had already been laid out. WC was run from BR days, and had little to really live up to.

I think it is too early to suggest who will win the EM franchise, given we don't even know if Stagecoach will bid. I'd like to see a more transparent bid, in every competition, where the people who will be using this service, know what each company wants to do, to change their commute.

EM faces a more uphill challenge, for whoever wins, because the future isn't clear with rolling stock, and infrastructure. There is never anything wrong with change, but with many hard choices coming up with the EM franchise (which are not really present on EC/WC - We know what will happen pretty much) the franchise must be kept in hands which know how to navigate a train with no clear destination.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Without the new franchise ITT, we don't know what shape it will be.
Outside the ITT, DfT never reveals bid details, even after the award decision, and imposes confidentiality clauses on the bidders.
The consultation on the future of the East Midlands franchise is here: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/future-of-east-midlands-rail-franchise
The usual routine is to publish the response to the consultation at the same time as the ITT, which is due in April.
But franchising policy is clearly in flux, so who knows what will emerge.

I think this is the first time I've seen somebody want Arriva to win a franchise.
They also recently backed out of the Wales & Borders competition, where they are the incumbent.
Stagecoach lost SWT recently and are in trouble with East Coast.
Tricky.

 

[Breadman]

Where did you hear that?
Virgin aren't interested in the MML - too small for them.

On virgin's career website, they where offering jobs based at Nottingham in the coming future.

 

[whhistle]

On virgin's career website, they where offering jobs based at Nottingham in the coming future.

I wonder if that's in preparation for HS2 and Toton.

 

[centraltrains]

Would be funny to see a Virgin liveried 170!!

 

[ocelocelot]

Would be funny to see a Virgin liveried 170!!

I was imagining a nice little 153 trundling in with Virgin livery

 

[Muzer]

I was disappointed that the Virgin Cross Country 158s were never reliveried...