South Wales 'Metro' updates

[gareth950]

Oh wow. No electrification of the Valley Lines. That would be a big mistake - whether you think HR or LR is the answer. Is there anywhere else in the whole of the UK with such a dense number of stations over such a relatively short distance, with the (current) frequencies, which are diesel operated?

He didn't say no electrification did he? He suggested partial, which points to bi-modes, which are the in thing right now with government.

Possibly electrification as far as Pontypridd / Abercynon on the MTA lines, along with Caerphilly / Bargoed and maybe to Barry with diesel or batteries the rest of the way.

It says a lot when we find out more about the award of a Welsh rail franchise from a Conservative UK Transport secretary rather than from a Welsh Labour transport secretary.

 

[Bwlch y Groes]

Also worth pointing out that in the other Wales & Borders thread, there's the document strongly suggesting ATW will get an extra year on their franchise, taking them up to December 2019, and that this was agreed as long ago as last March

Incidentally, I think Grayling's probably referring to HR electrification, and even if he's meaning generally, he may still be referring to Ebbw Vale and Maesteg which aren't due to be electrified anyway. I don't think it's that radical

 

[MarkyT]

Depends what one means by "Valley Lines". If it's actually Maesteg and Ebbw Vale, that's no surprise because in order to do the former one would have to pay NR to install 25kV on the main line as far as Bridgend, with all the latest clearance issues that NR were previously trying to solve involved. A small fleet of bi-modes are the best solution for these lines in the medium term, running under the wires between Cardiff and the Newport area, and a similar approach for the VoG and any extra Chepstow services could apply. Some low voltage overhead as far as Barry would not be incompatible with this strategy, or the tram trains could be specified already with 25kV capability for this section and AC provided on this section alone. Probably better to specify the TTs for future dual voltage capability as per T&W and do Cardiff-Barry as DC with Rotherham-style provision for future upgrade, unlike the rest of the core valleys which would be installed as a permanent lightweight DC power sytem. Grayling is once again trying to portray his brake on the electrification programme as being somehow enlightened long term policy, rather than being a treasury imposed 'realpolitik' response to difficult circumstances. Essentially he's pullled the rug from under the Maesteg line by cancelling Swansea electrification and WG are not going to pay alone for the same as far as Bridgend, so are likely to go bi-mode or stay DMU for that route. That's not a vindication of Graylings policy, merely a pragmatic reaction to it.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Perhaps this has caused a loss of confidence in heavy rail solutions, and light rail/tram trains might be an easier sell to improve the services, and make it easier to get new stock in future.

Loss of confidence? In Welsh Government yes you do infatratstructure work you need stock to go with it, it's called ordering it/ acquiring it nothing todo with inherent faults with heavy rail.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Birmingham Snow Hill and Manchester locals?

 

[gareth950]

Birmingham Snow Hill and Manchester locals?

What about them? Explain please?

 

[MarkyT]

Birmingham Snow Hill and Manchester locals?

What about them? Explain please?

Possible tram-train applications, with low voltage DC electrification? Possible integration with local tram networks perhaps (subject to difference in platforms heights in W. Midlands).

 

[rftorf]

Contract award in May according to the South Wales Argus.

http://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/ne...ntract_will_be_awarded_in_May__says_minister/

 

[gareth950]

Contract award in May according to the South Wales Argus.

http://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/ne...ntract_will_be_awarded_in_May__says_minister/

Yes, 'at the end of May', which is as late as you can get away with saying that you are awarding the contract 'in the Spring' without it being summer.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What about them? Explain please?

Sorry, ended up with other posts between. They are comparable DMU S-Bahnen with reasonably high frequencies.

 

[snowball]

Yes, 'at the end of May', which is as late as you can get away with saying that you are awarding the contract 'in the Spring' without it being summer.

Not necessarily. On one commonly used definition, spring lasts until the summer solstice, about 21st June.

 

[Envoy]

Not necessarily. On one commonly used definition, spring lasts until the summer solstice, about 21st June.

Summer Solstice is mid-summer's day = the longest hours of daylight. The met-office divide the year into 4 seasons = Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) ; Spring (March/April/May); Summer (June/July/Aug); Autumn (Sep/Oct/Nov). I think that most will agree that this is sensible.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Here's what's been put into CASR.
https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/our-routes/wales/south-wales-resignalling/

We’re delivering a £450m scheme

CASR at a glance

• More than 5,500 people have worked on the project
• More than 4m hours worked
• 192 miles
• 5 phases
• More than 830 wheel sensors fitted
• 370 new signals installed
• 100 sets of points installed, renewed or recontrolled
• 12 to 16 trains per hour through Cardiff Central station
• 6 new platforms (Tirphil, Caerphilly, Queen St x2, Central and Barry)

Its 7 platforms if you remember Pontypridd's turnback. Around half the work/expenditure relates to Valley Lines.

And if you convert it to Light Rail and want the hero frequencies that the Light Rail enthusiasts proclaim you'll probably have to rip out signalling that's just a couple of years old.

 

[Del1977]

The £450m project covers way more than the Valley Lines.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The £450m project covers way more than the Valley Lines.

Around half the work/expenditure relates to Valley Lines. - the entire extent of the extra platforms for a start and around 75 of the 192 route miles included are lines north of Queen St which have all been conventionally resignalled.

 

[Del1977]

Source for breakdown of the £450m? Agree it's going to be a chunk, but suspect not as much as perhaps thought.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Source for breakdown of the £450m? Agree it's going to be a chunk, but suspect not as much as perhaps thought.

I know the area and have traveled every inch of it many times I was also party to the original plans that became CASR. Whilst the signalling units and number of points are not as numerous out in the Valleys as they are on the mainline all the additional work, the new platforms, lines into them, points and signals for them, the complete remodeling of the eastern approaches to the higher number platforms at central are Valleys Lines associated. This is all heavy duty stuff and if you follow the problems we have with infrastructure costs on the railway you'll realize that its not peanuts. Trying to pretend otherwise is not facing the facts.

CASR arose out of schemes developed by professional railwayman to address capacity on Valley Lines by running higher frequency services close in to Cardiff in the peak hours as the best solution to provide capacity across the whole network. Its ready to use now and is future proved for heavy rail electrification but isn't because of the disconnect we have with decision's driven by politicians who change their minds and shy away from improving things now in the hope of something shiny and better later.

The fact remains is that we have spent hundred of millions preparing Valley lines for higher frequency heavy rail and have now changed our minds and will waste a lot of this expenditure. Its not as though were proposing converting a semaphored hangover to LRT.

 

[Del1977]

Right. But you must therefore be aware of the economic / project theory of 'sunk costs' then?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Right. But you must therefore be aware of the economic / project theory of 'sunk costs' then?

The only thing that is sunk Del1977 is the chances of anyone using the rail network in the South Wales Valleys having more capacity on PRM compliant trains by 2020.

 

[Del1977]

That's a different matter entirely, and down to the decisions of the current franchisee, the DfT and the Welsh Assembly.

The light rail / heavy rail / electrification / diesels debate as to which would best serve South Wales' future public transportation needs is separate to poor decisions made in the past, simply as we cannot go back and revisit past decisions.

The only relevant question is what will deliver the best results for South Wales users in the future.

 

[snowball]

Summer Solstice is mid-summer's day = the longest hours of daylight. The met-office divide the year into 4 seasons = Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) ; Spring (March/April/May); Summer (June/July/Aug); Autumn (Sep/Oct/Nov). I think that most will agree that this is sensible.

Summer solstice is the day when daylight is longest (usually 20 or 21 June) but that is not the same as midsummer's day. Midsummer's day is a traditional Quarter Day and is always 24 June.

I am well aware that the Met Office defines summer as June, July and August but that is not the only definition anyone ever uses. The Met Office hasn't existed for ever.

One traditional definition is that spring extends fom the vernal equinox in to the summer solstice, summer from then until the autumn eqinox, autumn from then until the winter solstice, and winter from then until the vernal equinox. This system has the advantage that it can be applied to other planets, and NASA has actually used it sometimes in talking about other planets!

A few years ago when the "big bang" extensions of Manchester Metrolink were being built, there were problems with the Tram Management System leading to lines opening late. Metrolink relied several times on the latter definition of the seasons when narrowly achieving forecast dates.

Incidentally one of Roger Ford's "Laws" is "never trust a forecast based on the seasons."

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Right. But you must therefore be aware of the economic / project theory of 'sunk costs' then?

CASR is indeed a sunk cost.
But that should make people think twice before ripping it all out on the Valley lines and install a new system for a tram network.
I should think a public accounts committee somewhere would point fingers.
It will reduce the BCR for both the main line and metro projects.

 

[Del1977]

Well it's factored in to the future decision only to the extent that new signalling may not be required in a HR project plan.

So let's take:

Project 1: HR electrification: New / cascaded rolling stock, utilise existing signalling / platforms, but need overhead electrification.

Project 2: LR: New rollings stock, rip-out and install new signalling, LR overhead electrification.

If Project 2 is less than Project 1, the fact that project 1 can reuse the existing signalling isn't relevant.


Obviously - the decision isn't just on money. Other factors such as extensions, or comfort, toilets on trains, capacity etc. will form part of the overall decision.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Project 2 could re-use the existing signalling on segregated rail sections too, just like it did for years on Metrolink.

As for toilets, are the Valleys really that much different to Merseyrail, where they are not provided on board and only at the main stations and nobody seems too bothered?

 

[edwin_m]

CASR is indeed a sunk cost.
But that should make people think twice before ripping it all out on the Valley lines and install a new system for a tram network.
I should think a public accounts committee somewhere would point fingers.
It will reduce the BCR for both the main line and metro projects.

I agree dispensing with existing equipment would create accusations of wasting money. but it would not affect the BCR. The "C" in BCR is the cost to get from the current situation to implementing whatever is proposed (plus operating costs). It doesn't depend on what might have been spent wisely or unwisely in the past.

 

[Del1977]

Project 2 could re-use the existing signalling on segregated rail sections too, just like it did for years on Metrolink.

As for toilets, are the Valleys really that much different to Merseyrail, where they are not provided on board and only at the main stations and nobody seems too bothered?

Toilets are a complete non-issue.

 

[Chester1]

Project 2 could re-use the existing signalling on segregated rail sections too, just like it did for years on Metrolink.

As for toilets, are the Valleys really that much different to Merseyrail, where they are not provided on board and only at the main stations and nobody seems too bothered?

The journey times are shorter at roughly 25-45 minutes to Liverpool city centre vs upto an hour to Cardiff city centre.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Project 2 could re-use the existing signalling on segregated rail sections too, just like it did for years on Metrolink.

As for toilets, are the Valleys really that much different to Merseyrail, where they are not provided on board and only at the main stations and nobody seems too bothered?

Having experienced a group of lads who got on at Birkenhead Hamilton Square going to Chester on a Saturday evening and watched one wet himself and another get left behind at Bache relieving himself on the platform ive not been too keen on no toilet trains.....

Trams even doubled up running under the CASR signalling will be a backward move capacity wise.

 

[Del1977]

The journey times are shorter at roughly 25-45 minutes to Liverpool city centre vs upto an hour to Cardiff city centre.

Amersham -> Aldgate

Epping -> Oxford Circus

No toilets. London commuters appear to manage.

And come to think of it - there's plenty of bus trips that are as long as a train trip from Merthyr Tydfil to Cardiff Central.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Amersham -> Aldgate

Epping -> Oxford Circus

No toilets. London commuters appear to manage.

And come to think of it - there's plenty of bus trips that are as long as a train trip from Merthyr Tydfil to Cardiff Central.

Genuine question - how many of the intermediate stations on those journeys have toilets if you must need to use one? For Merthyr to Cardiff Central there are off the top of my head, 3 stations with only one of them actually being during the main journey (the stations are Pontypridd, Cardiff Queen Street and Cardiff Central).

As for buses, good point to be fair. Though I would argue that it is much more normal to not have toilets on buses than it is for trains. Especially as, as I have mentioned before, it would be a downgrade to lose the toilets. Standard buses or tube trains currently do not have toilets. The current valley line trains do.