As more passengers in Pembrokeshire (267,338) now annually travel over the Whitland-Pembroke Dock line than on the Milford Haven line (239,372), according to the latest official figures quoted recently in the Tenby Observer, surely all direct services from Manchester Piccadilly should, in future, serve the Dock rather than the Milford branch where the 150s currently on the Dock line can be used instead?
The Pembroke & Tenby line may have more passengers, but how many of them are travelling long distances? A report by AECOM for SWWITCH in 2013 said that about half of the passengers using Pembroke Dock station were going no further than Narberth. The travelling from Pembroke Dock to Whitland via Tenby is not particularly direct, so the train isn't really time-competitive for longer journeys whereas Pembroke Dock to Tenby (the busiest station on the line) works rather well.
The Milford line is partly double track so it has more flexibility to accommodate late running.
I don't think it is; apart from from the passing loop at Haverfordwest station it is all single from Clarbeston Road to Milford Haven (unless you are counting Clarbeston Road to Whitland as part of the Milford Haven branch even though Fishguard trains also use that stretch of double track).
Personally though, I think no station in the Pembrokeshire/Whitland/Carmarthen area needs a through service to Manchester. An hourly through fast service from Carmarthen to Cardiff (very much preferably via the Swansea District Line), starting back from Milford Haven every two hours (and twice a day from Fishguard, meeting the ferries) would surfice for long-distance links. If that were to run anywhere beyond Cardiff, in a world with no silo-mentality (franchises), I'd say linking it into the Portsmouth service would be the most sensible option (mainly for the Bristol link). That aside, the three Pembrokeshire branches need a train every two hours to Swansea (so Milford would have a roughly hourly service, alternating between Cardiff and Swansea), ideally also a trip every two hours between Carmarthen and Swansea to bring that section up to every half hour.
cing the number of units needed so hopefully ensuring they can all be 3-cars. BUT, the Welsh Assembly would doubtless kick off about Llanelli, Carmarthen etc losing a direct link to "the City which is the centre of the known universe"
To be fair, Cardiff is probably quite an important destination for passengers from Carmarthen and Llanelli (unlike passengers from Holyhead). I do think the Manchester-Carmarthen services should become seperate Manchester-Swansea trains (which can have more coaches due to serving the buiser section of the route) and Carmarthen-Cardiff ones (that don't stop at Swansea).
Wrexhams a bit of a non event in terms of where folk from Newtown go to. In fact more folk go to Scotland. What folk want is better connections toward Manchester/ Crew at Shrewsbury the current 40 minute waits in both directions are very poor.
Are the W&B franchise's paths into Manchester and Birmingham fixed or could either the Manchester-Cardiff/Swansea or Aberystwyth-Birmingham paths be retimed (for example Swansea services leaving Manchester on the hour instead of xx:30) to sort out those connections?
I too would love to see Chester - Birmingham revert to the direct route via Stafford, Crewe - Liverpool, but neither are covered in the agreement with the Transport Secretary re: English services.
Maybe with HS2 coming the ICWC services to Holyhead could be diverted to run via Birmingham New Street (since it would probably be faster to change at Crewe for HS2 to Euston anyway, taking longer to reach Euston on the through train would matter less).
my benchmark for the replacement franchise is
"the end of 2 car DMU's running Wales and Border long distance services services into Manchester/Birmingham/ Cardiff'.
If there was to be a Cardiff - Milford Haven service calling only at Johnston, Haverfordwest, Whitland, Carmarthen, Llanelli and Port Talbot Parkway, do you think that would also need to be more than two coaches? And how about Carmarthen-Cardiff with the same calling pattern? I'm wondering whether that could be a use for the 2-car class 175 units if longer trains are ordered to replace them on the Manchesters.
Pacers living beyond 2021 (giving them a little leeway) = fail
Trams on the valley lines as far as Cardiff Queen Street = fail
Trams on the valley lines into Cardiff Central = probable fail but I'll wait and see what happens before judging too much
Full heavy rail electrification of the valley lines and an increase in capacity on those services = success
Full heavy rail electrification of the valley lines but the same capacity as now = better than the worse options so I'll still say a success even if the extra capacity is really needed!
Mine would be...
... actually, this is a bit tricky, some of what I'd want to say is probably a bit unrealistic. But, how about:
- loss of through trains to/from Cardiff Central from any ValleyLines station = FAIL
- trams on the ValleyLines network north of Taffs Well = FAIL
- 2-car units on Manchester/Birmingham/Cardiff services = FAIL
- removal of toilets on any route longer than about Cardiff Bay to Coryton = FAIL
- new trains with suburban door arangment ('doors at thirds') ordered = FAIL (there are quite a few such trains coming off lease, use them instead and spend the money on...)
- ... new trains with doors at the vehicle ends, good legroom and window alignment, for long-distance (semi-)fast services, = SUCCESS unless...
- ... new short multiple units (4/5 coaches or less) ordered without Unit End Gangways FAIL
- a plan for a significant capacity increase (including the ability for fast trains to overtake slow ones) on the GWML between Bridgend and Cardiff = SUCCESS
- full electrification from Cardiff Central to Treherbert, Aberdare, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhymney, Ebbw Vale, Penarth, Barry Island and Bridgend (via Llantwit Major) by 2030 = SUCCESS (if electrification is not complete but work is underway to an extent that it can't be cut back that is also ok). Bonus points for getting the above in hand so that Maesteg-Cardiff can also be electrified
- stations (except for some of the smaller ones on the Heart Of Wales) with less than a train every two hours = FAIL (I will accept a 3 hour gap in the Fishguard timetable to allow the September 2011 pattern of trains departing at 07:50, 09:50, etc. in the morning and 18:50, 20:50, etc. in the evening which probably works well for Fishguard-Carmarthen commuters)
- 150s, Pacers, 153s or anything else with less legroom than some of the better seats in the refurbished ATW 158s used on any route longer than an hour = FAIL
- anything with a suburban door layout regularly scheduled for use on a principal fast service = FAIL
- more than through 3 trains per day (each way) between Holyhead and Cardiff = FAIL
- more than 9 intermediate stops between Holyhead and Cardiff (exclusive) on any through service between those places = FAIL
