Brexit and the UK Car Industry

[brel york]

Mod Note: Split from this thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/rolling-stock-masses-of-stock-coming-off-lease.155129

I think the thing that has changed is that, during the past 20 years or so, the rolling stock industry has transitioned from ad-hoc train designs made by domestic industries - or even within railway workshops. Railway operators now have access to designs that are based on ranges of carefully developed platforms from large multinational firms. This seems to have led to a quantum leap in quality, value, and future proofing relative to that which went before. No wonder the operators are replacing older stuff wholesale.

Ironically, whereas the railway industry is reconfiguring itself to what is perceived as successful and competitive like the motorcar and aviation trades, these other businesses are likely to become more insular. For a taste of what is to come, note the impact of Trump's industrial strategy on Bombardier C Series and that of "brexit" on motorcar manufacturing.

What effect has Brexit had on the car industry?

 

[Marklund]

What effect has Brexit had on the car industry?

Bribes Incentives from HMG to stay.

 

[brel york]

Nothing wrong with incentives

 

[Marklund]

They wouldn’t have needed incentives if Brexit hadn’t have happened,
It’s taking money away from vital services.

Imagine if that slogan was on a bus...

 

[brel york]

Regardless of Brexit the incentive is access to one of Europe’s largest car buying markets .

 

[Mikey C]

They wouldn’t have needed incentives if Brexit hadn’t have happened,
It’s taking money away from vital services.

Imagine if that slogan was on a bus...

If it wasn't for incentives we wouldn't have much of a car industry. Imagine the UK without Nissan, Toyota and Honda

 

[Marklund]

If it wasn't for incentives we wouldn't have much of a car industry. Imagine the UK without Nissan, Toyota and Honda

Agreed, but again, the incentives dished out on the scale since 2016 have come at a price, and one that needn't have been paid.

 

[Bornin1980s]

I understand the Japanese carmakers came to Britain for access to the whole European market. Hence the fear that they have no reason to stay after brexit.

 

[Chester1]

I understand the Japanese carmakers came to Britain for access to the whole European market. Hence the fear that they have no reason to stay after brexit.

Why would Nissan pull out after brexit? If there are tarrifs on cars sold between the UK and EU then they have a great opportunity to dominate the UK market. Only Peugeot-Citroën through ownership of Vauxhall and BNW through owning Mini would be in a position to do the same. It would be hugely disruptive to their supply chain and they would have to make more of their models in Sunderland but they would be mad to pull out. Hitachi is sort of in a similar position depending on how many orders it wins. If there are low or no tariffs then brexit won't make much difference.

 

[thejuggler]

Nissan are now little more than rebadged Renaults. The engines, gearboxes, switchgear, electrical components can all be found in Dacias and the Renault range.

 

[beeza1]

Why would Nissan pull out after brexit? If there are tarrifs on cars sold between the UK and EU then they have a great opportunity to dominate the UK market. Only Peugeot-Citroën through ownership of Vauxhall and BNW through owning Mini would be in a position to do the same. It would be hugely disruptive to their supply chain and they would have to make more of their models in Sunderland but they would be mad to pull out. Hitachi is sort of in a similar position depending on how many orders it wins. If there are low or no tariffs then brexit won't make much difference.

When you purchase/lease or whatever a new Nissan you are more than likely actually getting a Renault in all but name, especially the smaller models, my 2003 model has Renault electrics and brakes, but at least it has a Nissan engine unlike some of the current models which have a Renault engine. As would be expected, most of the problems with my car have been with the electrics and brakes! French cars do not have a good reputation when it comes to electrical problems.

 

[Pinza-C55]

Nothing wrong with incentives

Except in the minds of Remainers who need the UK economy to crash and burn in order to be right.

 

[nlogax]

Except in the minds of Remainers who need the UK economy to crash and burn in order to be right.

That's foolish. Nobody WANTS the economy to go base over apex. We've just been warning about the consequences for what seems like years and asking for Leave voters to see sense and consider the details. It hardly takes the likes of the Rand Corporation to forecast what's likely to happen.

..but hey, let's listen to what they have to say since we're here.

https://www.rand.org/news/press/2017/12/12.html

"A new study from the RAND Corporation projects that the UK economy is likely to suffer under the most probable post-Brexit trade scenarios.

Leaving the EU with no deal and operating under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules would lead to the greatest economic loss for the UK, reducing GDP by nearly 5 per cent, or $140 billion, 10 years after Brexit, compared with EU membership."

 

[Pinza-C55]

That's foolish. Nobody WANTS the economy to go base over apex. We've just been warning about the consequences for what seems like years and asking for Leave voters to see sense and consider the details. It hardly takes the likes of the Rand Corporation to forecast what's likely to happen.

..but hey, let's listen to what they have to say since we're here.

https://www.rand.org/news/press/2017/12/12.html

"A new study from the RAND Corporation projects that the UK economy is likely to suffer under the most probable post-Brexit trade scenarios.

Leaving the EU with no deal and operating under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules would lead to the greatest economic loss for the UK, reducing GDP by nearly 5 per cent, or $140 billion, 10 years after Brexit, compared with EU membership."

It's been a year and a half since the Referendum and the economic disaster which was widely predicted in the immediate wake of a Leave vote simply hasn't happened. But I am sure the Rand Corporation are right and we Leavers will have egg all over our faces at some unspecified time in the future.

 

[nlogax]

But I am sure the Rand Corporation are right and we Leavers will have egg all over our faces at some unspecified time in the future.

You misunderstand. If the Rand Corporation - and countless others - are right, we'll all be in the brown sticky stuff together. It's not a case of Remainers just wanting to be right. There's so, so much more at stake than the outcome of a mere ego contest.

 

[gordonthemoron]

It's been a year and a half since the Referendum and the economic disaster which was widely predicted in the immediate wake of a Leave vote simply hasn't happened. But I am sure the Rand Corporation are right and we Leavers will have egg all over our faces at some unspecified time in the future.

we haven't left the EU yet

 

[AM9]

we haven't left the EU yet

Not sure where you are coming from but I would say:

... and we haven't even left the EU yet! i.e. just the knowledge that we will cease to be a full member in about 3 1/2 years has damaged our standing.

 

[gordonthemoron]

Not sure where you are coming from but I would say:

... and we haven't even left the EU yet! i.e. just the knowledge that we will cease to be a full member in about 3 1/2 years has damaged our standing.

Yes, what I meant was that the full effect of Brexit will not be felt until we have left the EU

 

[AM9]

Yes, what I meant was that the full effect of Brexit will not be felt until we have left the EU

OK thanks. That's what I hoped you were saying. Too many of the leavers keep repeating the BoE pre-referendum warnings about the economy saying it hasn't happened, despite the fact that it has already and many 'informed authorities'* are forecasting a worse performance when we do lose the protection of the single market.

* - but of course, 'people in this country have had enough of experts!' (fingers firmly pressed into ears, - laa,laa,laa...) .