EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Cantab26]

"Ireland's problem" means it becomes our problem as well if it results in the Good Friday Agreement being torn up and the resumption of paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland and England.

Clearly we would wish to avoid this, but in order to do so all parties must have something to lose and something to gain. If one party is expected to make all the running then the negotiations will fail and there will be no deal.

This then gives Ireland and the EU immediate problems to deal with:

• The EU will be insolvent
• Ireland must unilaterally rescind the Good Friday Agreement by imposing EU border controls

These factors very much go in the UK's favour during the negotiations and a negotiated solution means everyone can save face.

 

[fowler9]

My point is that the existence of the common travel area means that this does not apply.

And who said anything about simple?

The Common Travel Area will no longer apply when we leave the EU.

 

[fowler9]

Clearly we would wish to avoid this, but in order to do so all parties must have something to lose and something to gain. If one party is expected to make all the running then the negotiations will fail and there will be no deal.

This then gives Ireland and the EU immediate problems to deal with:

• The EU will be insolvent
• Ireland must unilaterally rescind the Good Friday Agreement by imposing EU border controls

These factors very much go in the UK's favour during the negotiations and a negotiated solution means everyone can save face.

Wow. And there was me thinking we may have a role to play since it is us that is instigating a change. I am gobsmacked that people are accusing the EU of being arrogant.

 

[Cantab26]

There's too many to list and as I haven't surveyed NI residents I don't which ones attracted the majority of NI residents to vote to remain in the EU.

I think it would be interesting to know the relative importance placed on intra-island rights versus rights in the EU more generally.

I am not aware of any research or polling that has been undertaken on this?

 

[Cantab26]

The Common Travel Area will no longer apply when we leave the EU.

If we leave without a deal.

As I have said, if there is going to be a deal then my view is that one based on the common travel area is the most likely outcome.

Your post - to which I was responding - implied that the common travel area area would be abolished come what may.

 

[northwichcat]

Clearly we would wish to avoid this, but in order to do so all parties must have something to lose and something to gain. If one party is expected to make all the running then the negotiations will fail and there will be no deal.

This then gives Ireland and the EU immediate problems to deal with:

• The EU will be insolvent
• Ireland must unilaterally rescind the Good Friday Agreement by imposing EU border controls

These factors very much go in the UK's favour during the negotiations and a negotiated solution means everyone can save face.

I suggested a good option for all parties earlier in the thread which would keep the Common Travel Area (wanted by Ireland and the UK), protect the EU borders (wanted by Ireland and the EU) and allow Britain to leave the EU (wanted by the UK.) You dismissed it and said it was something Ireland needed to sort out, not us.

 

[Cantab26]

Wow. And there was me thinking we may have a role to play since it is us that is instigating a change. I am gobsmacked that people are accusing the EU of being arrogant.

We do have a role to play, but this requires collaboration i.e. a deal.

 

[fowler9]

If we leave without a deal.

As I have said, if there is going to be a deal then my view is that one based on the common travel area is the most likely outcome.

Your post - to which I was responding - implied that the common travel area area would be abolished come what may.

What do you reckon the likelihood is of the EU saying we can have a soft border with a member state? Especially given the intransigence of so many leavers.

 

[Cantab26]

I suggested a good option for all parties earlier in the thread which would keep the Common Travel Area (wanted by Ireland and the UK), protect the EU borders (wanted by Ireland and the EU) and allow Britain to leave the EU (wanted by the UK.) You dismissed it and said it was something Ireland needed to sort out, not us.

Not quite.

You asserted that the UK would be required [sic] to adopt EU border controls post-Brexit. We eventually established that there would be no such requirement absent a 'deal' to that effect.

I suggested an alternative 'deal'.

Three options seem to have been raised as far as I can see (I apologise in advance if this brief summary does not reflect the specific proposals - let me know and I will amend):

1. No deal at all - Ireland imposes border controls - no common travel area
2. A deal is struck - UK and Ireland impose border controls around the common travel area - border controls between the common travel area and the rest of the EU
3. A deal is struck - the UK imposes EU standard border controls across the board

My view is that n.2 is the most likely outcome if there is a deal.

 

[Cantab26]

What do you reckon the likelihood is of the EU saying we can have a soft border with a member state? Especially given the intransigence of so many leavers.

Difficult to say. I think the EU would agree to it as part of a larger 'package' if it would avoid a major negative impact of 'no deal' on the EU.

 

[Cantab26]

For the record: I rather doubt that the UK would be much minded to admit people on an EU watchlist with or without a deal in place.

 

[dosxuk]

• Ireland must unilaterally rescind the Good Friday Agreement by imposing EU border controls

How would it be Ireland unilaterally rescinding the agreement? They would only be having to terminate the agreement because of a decision made by the UK.

 

[northwichcat]

Not quite.

You asserted that the UK would be required [sic] to adopt EU border controls post-Brexit. We eventually established that there would be no such requirement absent a 'deal' to that effect.

I suggested an alternative 'deal'.

No we didn't. You suggested an 'alternative' which would require the EU will change it's border control requirements to suit us when we are leaving the EU and then claimed I was wrong - there's more chance of Farage admitting he was wrong with Brexit than that happening! As far as I can see no other posters have said your idea is valid, while you've ignored the excellent point fowler9 made about border controls between EU and non-EU parts of former Yugoslavia.

 

[northwichcat]

For the record: I rather doubt that the UK would be much minded to admit people on an EU watchlist with or without a deal in place.

It's already been established we won't have access to the watchlist unless a deal is agreed.

 

[AlterEgo]

We do have a role to play, but this requires collaboration i.e. a deal.

One of the issues is that Ireland has the power of veto over any deal. Both sides have much to lose over the border issue but I am certain neither party will allow customs posts on the border. Physical border crossing points attract paramilitaries like flies to flypaper.

If I was a betting man I’d say pragmatism will win the day (the CTA upon implementation was a rare triumph of pragmatism over ideology in even more tetchy times).

 

[fowler9]

I am constantly astounded by the number of people who live in a fantasy realm called 50 Shades Of Great Britain where everyone bends over and takes what we offer.

 

[Howardh]

Not quite.

You asserted that the UK would be required [sic] to adopt EU border controls post-Brexit. We eventually established that there would be no such requirement absent a 'deal' to that effect.

I suggested an alternative 'deal'.

Three options seem to have been raised as far as I can see (I apologise in advance if this brief summary does not reflect the specific proposals - let me know and I will amend):

1. No deal at all - Ireland imposes border controls - no common travel area
2. A deal is struck - UK and Ireland impose border controls around the common travel area - border controls between the common travel area and the rest of the EU
3. A deal is struck - the UK imposes EU standard border controls across the board

My view is that n.2 is the most likely outcome if there is a deal.

No2 sounds a possibility, but falls down when Ireland would still have to allow (virtually) anyone from the EU in (under FoM) and then they can stroll into the UK unchecked - so it means the UK wanting "control of it's borders" falls to pieces as we would have to allow anyone from the EU access via Ireland. Unless there's a hard border (UK/IRL) they can't be stopped, so the simplest arrangement would be for the UK to accept freedom of movement, stay in the single market and customs union and the problem has vanished overnight and we can have Brexit tomorrow.

Even the papers that the government is trying to hide would become null and void as business could simply carry on as before. Just means Brexit voters who voted because there are "too many immigrants" or "control of immigrants" will just have to back down a touch in order to get their Brexit. And in any case, even it they couldn't accept that, there's nothing they can do as they refuse a second referendum when the outcome is clear.

BUT there is a get-out clause, we could simply allow anyone in, but only allow them to work legally if they have a permit (or get one if they obtain employment) and that wouldn't require any immigration official to check at the ports of entry, just the employer would check and if the permit is valid, they get their NI number; and if there is no permit and they are still employed - the employer could face charges.

So there is a way round, just needs the will of Brexiters to get behind the latter proposal, and we can all skip through immigration as if it weren't there. And no visas!!

 

[EM2]

It's being reported that the 'divorce bill' has been agreed at approximately €50billion.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ee-brexit-divorce-bill/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

British and EU negotiators have reached a deal over the so-called Brexit bill, opening the door to a potential breakthrough in the talks this December, the Telegraph has learned.

Sources on both sides confirmed that an agreement-in-principle has now been reached over the EU’s demand for a €60bn financial settlement ahead of a crucial lunch meeting next Monday between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president.

Two sources confirmed that the terms were agreed at a meeting in Brussels late last week after intense back-channel discussions led by Oliver Robbins, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator.

The Telegraph understands that the final figure, which is deliberately being left open to interpretation, will be between €45bn and €55bn, depending on how each side calculates the output from an agreed methodology.

 

[Hornet]

Ireland will do whatever their Political and Economic Masters in Brussels, Berlin and Paris command them to do. They are held firmly by their short and curleys in respect to their €200bn debt, dodgy tax dealings and incoherent, corrupt Government.
http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/ire...aching-a-very-serious-crisis-3568652-Aug2017/
http://www.thejournal.ie/oxfam-ireland-tax-haven-3720144-Nov2017/
https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...d-in-smear-campaign-against-him-36361660.html

 

[fowler9]

Ireland will do whatever their Political and Economic Masters in Brussels, Berlin and Paris command them to do. They are held firmly by their short and curleys in respect to their €200bn debt, dodgy tax dealings and incoherent, corrupt Government.
http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-competitiveness-2-3505319-Jul2017/
http://www.thejournal.ie/oxfam-ireland-tax-haven-3720144-Nov2017/
https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...d-in-smear-campaign-against-him-36361660.html

Oh please

 

[Howardh]

It's being reported that the 'divorce bill' has been agreed at approximately €50billion.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ee-brexit-divorce-bill/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

That's about a grand per adult in the UK, give or take the bill might be more or less.
Now, I know of better things I could spend my grand on. Top of my head...the NHS. Schools. Roads. Rail. Defence. Police. Research and Development. The BBC. Care for the elderly.
All of which are a tad more important than keeping what we already had and were never going to lose, but then again I'm just a poor solitary voter that's a grand worse off tonight.

 

[dgl]

That's about a grand per adult in the UK, give or take the bill might be more or less.
Now, I know of better things I could spend my grand on. Top of my head...the NHS. Schools. Roads. Rail. Defence. Police. Research and Development. The BBC. Care for the elderly.
All of which are a tad more important than keeping what we already had and were never going to lose, but then again I'm just a poor solitary voter that's a grand worse off tonight.

But...
We are leaving the EU and that's going to make everything better and we will be much better off won't we

In other news the NHS will take it's 350m as soon as possible assuming it will be available.

 

[Howardh]

But...
We are leaving the EU and that's going to make everything better and we will be much better off won't we

In other news the NHS will take it's 350m as soon as possible assuming it will be available.

I'll be dead by then

 

[AlterEgo]

Ireland will do whatever their Political and Economic Masters in Brussels, Berlin and Paris command them to do. They are held firmly by their short and curleys in respect to their €200bn debt, dodgy tax dealings and incoherent, corrupt Government.
http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/ire...aching-a-very-serious-crisis-3568652-Aug2017/
http://www.thejournal.ie/oxfam-ireland-tax-haven-3720144-Nov2017/
https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...d-in-smear-campaign-against-him-36361660.html

The narrative of the EU as an abusive and controlling parent springs up again. The Brexiteer’s narrative.

 

[furnessvale]

That's about a grand per adult in the UK, give or take the bill might be more or less.
Now, I know of better things I could spend my grand on. Top of my head...the NHS. Schools. Roads. Rail. Defence. Police. Research and Development. The BBC. Care for the elderly.
All of which are a tad more important than keeping what we already had and were never going to lose, but then again I'm just a poor solitary voter that's a grand worse off tonight.

More than I would have paid, but equal to 4 years existing payments, give or take. We were committed to 2 of those years anyway.
So we currently pay gbp250 per adult head every year with no end in sight. After 4 years that payment will end.
Sounds like a classic compromise.

 

[DarloRich]

I find it surprising that Conservative politicians thought they could get divorced without making any financial contribution to the wronged spouse.

The narrative of the EU as an abusive and controlling parent springs up again. The Brexiteer’s narrative.

It is easier to use that narrative than look at the real and extremely complex issues issues around "brexit" or admit that the decision taken to leave the EU might not, possibly, have been a good idea.

 

[Senex]

After 4 years that payment will end. / Sounds like a classic compromise.

We're all going by unconfirmed reports at the moment, but that's not how I've understood what I've heard. It appeared to me that they were not talking about calculating out the ultimate cost of all liabilities and settling by payment of a lump sum over a 4-year period but rather agreeing to a calculation of all the liabilities but then making payment over many decades until the last pensioner for whom there is some responsibility dies off. In other words, a government passing on payment to future generations of the young people who, if they bothered to go and vote, tended to vote against Brexit. A classic comprimise indeed—though I'd call it a classic politicians' compromise.

 

[thejuggler]

After 4 years that payment will end.

Any evidence of that? There is no timetable for repaying the money. I suspect it will be much longer than 4 years. I still maintain it will be 30-40 years before we could ever say we no longer have any financial links or potential liabilities to the EU.

 

[najaB]

Any evidence of that? There is no timetable for repaying the money. I suspect it will be much longer than 4 years. I still maintain it will be 30-40 years before we could ever say we no longer have any financial links or potential liabilities to the EU.

David Davis said as much on Channel 4 News last night.

 

[Domh245]

David Davis said as much on Channel 4 News last night.

David Davis also said he'd hand the Brexit impact papers in full to the Brexit select committee and that doesn't appear to have happened.