Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Gareth Marston]

What I find intriguing is how Skayes can make the statements he is making unless either 1) the current franchise is extended by say a year with funding allowing any trains that will stay to be modified ahead of the new franchise 2) a new franchisee has made a commitment which will not actually be achievable.

On past form the tactic will be to wing it with promises of jam tomorrow and if people start asking too many questions scream blue murder that its somebody elses fault!

 

[sw1ller]

What I find intriguing is how Skayes can make the statements he is making unless either 1) the current franchise is extended by say a year with funding allowing any trains that will stay to be modified ahead of the new franchise 2) a new franchisee has made a commitment which will not actually be achievable.

I can’t see anything else other than option 1 happening. But I think it’ll be until 2020-2021

 

[gareth950]

Without going into the blame game, PRM Mods should have been started long ago. It's not as though nobody was aware of it.

All the parties involved in the running of the railway in Wales are to blame. ATW haven't done anything because their contract says they don't have to. DfT washed their hands of the Wales and Borders franchise long ago, and Welsh Govt have been in denial about the need to do anything, insisting that the new franchise would solve everything. Even though WG was warned by Porterbrook back in 2013 that it would be impossible to make the Welsh fleet compliant in under 15 months.

 

[gareth950]

I can’t see anything else other than option 1 happening. But I think it’ll be until 2020-2021

My understanding is that the current franchise can only be extended for up to 6 months, so a direct award would be needed. With the current ongoing procurement process this could be seen by other bidders as unfairly favouring Arriva.

The only solution to head off a 2020 crisis in Wales that I can think of is a substantial order for 769s immediately when the new franchise is awarded early next year to replace Pacers, allow 150s to be sent away for mods (or replace 150s as well) and enhance capacity all at the same time.

 

[gareth950]

The latest from ATW is:

Current franchise holder Arriva Trains Wales said work to modify its trains had already begun.

Lynne Milligan, customer services director for the current franchise holder Arriva Trains Wales, said they were working to make the network "fully inclusive and accessible to all".

She added that the modification of their trains had already begun ahead of the 2020 target, and said some of the fleet would be ready "as early as the beginning of 2018".

So which trains are these?

 

[Gareth Marston]

actually aren't we all being mislead by Skates not answering the question? Supposedly the 5 x 769's already announced are suppose to be to allow 150/158's to go off for their PRM Mods and ATW/ WG have funded the lease off them? Perhaps he forgot this as they were spun as some sort of solution to Valleys overcrowding!

 

[CardiffKid]

The 150/153s are being modified.

I think it's widely accepted that the 142/143s are off to the razor blade factory.

 

[Envoy]

What about the situation regarding disabled access at stations? I see that new lifts have gone in at Radyr but is much happening anywhere else?

 

[Mollman]

The 150/153s are being modified.

I think it's widely accepted that the 142/143s are off to the razor blade factory.

I would have thought the 153s would not be touched as given recent franchises changes they will be replace by cascaded modified 2 car units (especially as there are some spare DMUs from GA and West Mids)

 

[Rhydgaled]

I wonder why the question of PRM compliance has resurfaced now given the announcement that class 769s from next year will allow the 150s to go for PRM mods. I suppose there is still the question of what to do with the Pacers, 153s and mark 3s. The mark 3s I would suggest are the biggest problem, since if the franchise is awarded on time the new operator should be able to get in some more 769s to deal with the Pacer problem and hopefully 156s from Anglia and ScotRail to release the 153s (if the West/East Midlands haven't got dibs on the 156s). The mark 3s though, ummm............ tricky.

I would have thought the 153s would not be touched as given recent franchises changes they will be replace by cascaded modified 2 car units (especially as there are some spare DMUs from GA and West Mids)

We still don't know what the West Midlands rolling stock plan is, with the main manufacturers order books being full up to 2020 it will be interesting to see whether they can get rid of their 153s by 2020.

 

[northwichcat]

We still don't know what the West Midlands rolling stock plan is, with the main manufacturers order books being full up to 2020 it will be interesting to see whether they can get rid of their 153s by 2020.

A presentation to a RUG (which Old Hill Bank has linked to on here) indicates they'll get the LO 172s plus 2 x 2 car D-Trains (18 carriages) so on paper that would be enough to replace the 15xs in the LM fleet.

 

[gareth950]

What about the situation regarding disabled access at stations? I see that new lifts have gone in at Radyr but is much happening anywhere else?

That is even worse. Apart from the 'main' stations (Central, Queen St, Pontypridd, Caerphilly?, Radyr) most valley lines stations are completely inaccessible. There's no point spending millions making the trains accessible if disabled persons cannot get onto the correct platform in the first place!

Take Barry for example. The unofficial 'work around' at this station has always been if a person is on the train from Cardiff getting off there, to stay on the train to Barry Island and come back. With the new terminating facility at platform 3, if a train terminates short, a disabled passenger is marooned on P2/3 with no way to get off the platform. A disabled person hasn't got the option of getting a train from Barry to Llantwit Major - it's impossible.
That's just one example of many and in 2017 it's an absurd situation in Wales.

 

[PHILIPE]

I wonder why the question of PRM compliance has resurfaced now given the announcement that class 769s from next year will allow the 150s to go for PRM mods. I suppose there is still the question of what to do with the Pacers, 153s and mark 3s. The mark 3s I would suggest are the biggest problem, since if the franchise is awarded on time the new operator should be able to get in some more 769s to deal with the Pacer problem and hopefully 156s from Anglia and ScotRail to release the 153s (if the West/East Midlands haven't got dibs on the 156s). The mark 3s though, ummm............ tricky.

We still don't know what the West Midlands rolling stock plan is, with the main manufacturers order books being full up to 2020 it will be interesting to see whether they can get rid of their 153s by 2020.

Even with the 769s to cover for the PRM Mods will there be the capacity available to complete the programme by the deadline date.
Wolverton Works is supposed to be closing.

 

[CardiffKid]

Arriva Group have withdrawn from the bidding process.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Arriva Group have withdrawn from the bidding process.

Good riddance. Who does that leave?

 

[387star]

Abellio MTR and Keolis./Amey I think

 

[CardiffKid]

Good riddance. Who does that leave?

MRT, Keolis and Abellio.

If you're glad to see that back if ATW, I hate to break it to you but the problems the franchise has won't be solved simply by changing the franchisee holder. They are far more complex and deep routed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Keolis leading? That's unusual.

MRT, Keolis and Abellio.

If you're glad to see that back if ATW, I hate to break it to you but the problems the franchise has won't be solved simply by changing the franchisee holder. They are far more complex and deep routed.

I'm sure that's true to some extent, but whenever I see Arriva I see a lackadaisical half-job, and ATW is no exception.

 

[gareth950]

Arriva Group have withdrawn from the bidding process.

Confirmed by the BBC

 

[CardiffKid]

I don't disbelieve you, but do you have a source & link for that please? A few weeks ago it was posted on various forums, including here, that 2 bidders had pulled out, which was proved to be false.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-41809874

Arriva has said Arriva Trains Wales was "no longer participating in the Wales and Borders competition", adding it had "not been an easy decision".

https://twitter.com/wgcs_economy/status/925045222970707970

 

[313103]

A letter from Tom Joyner MD ATW.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Arriva Group have withdrawn from the bidding process.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-41809874

Arriva Rail Wales has told Transport for Wales that it is withdrawing from the bidding process for the next Wales and Borders franchise.
The Welsh Government quango said it was "not uncommon" for bidders for major projects to withdraw.
An Arriva-owned company has run the franchise since 2003. Three bidders are left.

Oops!
It can't possibly be good news for WG that the incumbent has backed out of the competition.
If anyone knows the scale of the task to come, it's Arriva.
I can't immediately think of reasons why Arriva would withdraw, unless DB are unhappy with the financial performance of their UK portfolio.

 

[gareth950]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-41809874


Oops!
It can't possibly be good news for WG that the incumbent has backed out of the competition.
If anyone known the scale of the task to come, it's Arriva.
I can't immediately think of reasons why Arriva would withdraw, unless DB are unhappy with the financial performance of their UK portfolio.

Maybe because of the nonsense over the future of the Valley Lines?

If any other bidders drop out it will be highly embarassing for TfW and Welsh Govt.

 

[CardiffKid]

WG will undoubtedly view this as a victory.
Imagine the headlines in the Echo/WalesOnline had Arriva won?
Who ever wins has got an almost impossible task ahead of them to satisfy the public and Welsh Government.

 

[northwichcat]

It can't possibly be good news for WG that the incumbent has backed out of the competition.
If anyone knows the scale of the task to come, it's Arriva.
I can't immediately think of reasons why Arriva would withdraw, unless DB are unhappy with the financial performance of their UK portfolio.

Well there goes any chance of early/late W&B services being operated by Northern and vice versa to save on ECS moves and paying for taxis to move crews around.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well there goes any chance of early/late W&B services being operated by Northern and vice versa to save on ECS moves and paying for taxis to move crews around.

That wasn't going to happen anyway - Chiltern got their fingers burnt on allowing other "TOCs" (WSMR) to perform their franchise obligations.

 

[Parallel]

WG will undoubtedly view this as a victory.
Imagine the headlines in the Echo/WalesOnline had Arriva won?
Who ever wins has got an almost impossible task ahead of them to satisfy the public and Welsh Government.

Indeed. This is big news, really. I'd imagine this would be a big wake up call to the other bidders.

 

[CambrianCoast]

Would it be fair to say “better the devil you know” considering who the remaining bidders are?

 

[northwichcat]

That wasn't going to happen anyway - Chiltern got their fingers burnt on allowing other "TOCs" (WSMR) to perform their franchise obligations.

ATW did have an arrangement in place with FNW but that ended as soon as Abellio/Serco took over Northern. Do TPE still have an arrangement with Northern for early Lincolnshire services?

 

[craigybagel]

Good riddance. Who does that leave?

Thank you for your deep and thoughtful contribution to this thread.

MRT, Keolis and Abellio.

If you're glad to see that back if ATW, I hate to break it to you but the problems the franchise has won't be solved simply by changing the franchisee holder. They are far more complex and deep routed.

Exactly. Arriva have had a very difficult hand dealt them in the form of a no growth franchise and they've actually done a reasonable job. I would also argue that as a group their record is no worse than Abellio or Keolis, and MTR haven't really had enough opportunity yet to show what they can do.

It doesn't matter which colour scheme goes on the stock - at the end of the day it's government investment that is required to get it to catch up to its peers.

Would it be fair to say “better the devil you know” considering who the remaining bidders are?

I'd say it's too early to say. But I fail to see how Arriva backing out can be seen as good news to anyone.