Brexit - Deal or No Deal?

[najaB]

However, people will dismiss my views as stupid, or (like you) find unrelated things to say my critical thinking isn't good.

There's a difference between 'stupid' and 'rooted in emotion and lacking logical support'. I would rarely or never refer to someone's posts as the former, but I can certainly say that - to date - you have consistently demonstrated the latter.

Note that I'm not making an ad hominem attack - I'm playing the ball, not the man.

 

[DarloRich]

Ah I see what you mean now, I shall look into it.


I do, and I cannot provide evidence per se, as biased can be subjective. However, we know that the government advised people to vote remain back in 2016, and as the Prime minister voted remain, I don't know whether to trust this current government. However trust and bias is viewed differently by many people, so even if I don't trust the source, I will check it out, and see if other sources say the same thing.

well show that you know how debate works. Show me some of the sources upon which you base your view. Show me this evidence and try and persuade me that leaving the EU is for the best. You have decided it is. Try and persuade me.

 

[fowler9]

This is all very depressing. I am still yet to see anything at all from the Brexit side that shows we will actually be better off. Seriously, nothing at all. It all sounds very Donald Trump. Remainers don't like Brexiters and aren't being positive about all the great things that are going to happen and the great great trade deals we will have and that is sad. We will have great trade deals with India (Who I believe would like more freedom of movement with the UK, that will go down great with some Brexiters).

At best we will have a worse deal than we already have, at its worst we have just scr*wed the country for generations to come.

 

[deltic]

It doesn't matter if we conform to their standards, that's fine. We can conform to each country's specified standards. Also, UK is Germany's second biggest market after the USA.

France is Germany's 2nd biggest export market, UK is third just ahead of Netherlands and China. We account for well under 10% of Germany's exports - we are not a priority for Germany. To the surprise of the likes of Nigel Farage Brexit was not an issue in the recent German general election.

 

[deltic]

This is all very depressing. I am still yet to see anything at all from the Brexit side that shows we will actually be better off. Seriously, nothing at all. It all sounds very Donald Trump. Remainers don't like Brexiters and aren't being positive about all the great things that are going to happen and the great great trade deals we will have and that is sad. We will have great trade deals with India (Who I believe would like more freedom of movement with the UK, that will go down great with some Brexiters).

At best we will have a worse deal than we already have, at its worst we have just scr*wed the country for generations to come.

We could have a very good deal for the UK. This would involve scrapping all tariffs on imported goods and removing non-tariff barriers on services. However, the impact on certain sectors of the economy eg agricultural will be dramatic and there will be huge hardship and unemployment as the economy rebalances. As with globalisation the people who will suffer most will be the like of farmers and the low skilled who heavily voted for leave.

 

[najaB]

We account for well under 10% of Germany's exports - we are not a priority for Germany.

It varies year-on-year from anything as high as 12% to as low as 8%, but you're right: a priority we are not.

 

[Barn]

It varies year-on-year from anything as high as 12% to as low as 8%, but you're right: a priority we are not.

Let's keep this in perspective: that's a lot higher than Canada which has scored a fairly decent FTA without paying anything.

 

[najaB]

Let's keep this in perspective: that's a lot higher than Canada which has scored a fairly decent FTA without paying anything.

Canada negotiated a deal with the EU, so it's the value of EU-Canada trade (which includes a not insubstantial amount of UK trade) that matters. And we don't have (and won't have until post-2019) a trade agreement with Canada.

 

[DarloRich]

Let's keep this in perspective: that's a lot higher than Canada which has scored a fairly decent FTA without paying anything.

but they do have all that maple syrup. Germans are mad for it.

 

[jon0844]

We want German products. That's fine, post Brexit, we'll just pay more for our cars. It won't stop Germany exporting here - but it may stop many of us according the products.

Germany will seek to push products elsewhere.

Now can we say the same in reverse? Will Germany want to buy from us, or spend the next year or two finding alternative suppliers?

What so we make that they can't get elsewhere, compared to the things we want from Germany?

In my mind it's crazy to want to seek trade deals with countries further afield, all likely wanting to look out for number one - like the USA.

But I'll chuckle when we do deals with China, India and middle eastern countries and allow more immigration from there. Because I know that many leave voters will be well happy to have people from these locations potentially replace those from EU states, and won't feel let down by those who suggested we were going to send everyone home and make the UK only for native British born white anglo-saxons...

 

[Dave1987]

I have read a lot about the from the pro Brexit camp and the main argument for leaving the EU seems to be that the pro Brexit camp don't like the EU telling the UK what to do. The arguments about better trading arrangements outside the EU have all but died out. It seems that pro Brexit people are hoping for trade deals that will make up and just about match what we have now being inside EU. The £350m a week (the BBC reality check said that when considering the rebate it is actually less than that) is clearly going to be gobbled up by the extra bureaucracy from setting up quangos that the EU did for us before and replacing a lot of the EU grants that many many areas of the country are going to lose when we leave. I have even seen quotes from Brexit supporters saying that no matter how bad it may be we should all pull together like the country did in the war. Now that kind of comment really annoys me. We are the protagonists in the whole sorry saga of Brexit, so we suffer the consequences of that decision. Least we forget that the EEC and then the EU was set up off the back of WW2 and it seems lessons learnt from that period are being conveniently forgotten again.

 

[highspeed990]

well show that you know how debate works. Show me some of the sources upon which you base your view. Show me this evidence and try and persuade me that leaving the EU is for the best. You have decided it is. Try and persuade me.

I don't need to show you anything, and I doubt you would be persuaded by anything.

 

[highspeed990]

And UK is definitely germany's 2 biggest export market, different sources may be slightly different, but know this: An estimated 3 million Germans will lose their jobs if they have a bad deal with us. Estimated that is, it may not be too accurate.

 

[cactustwirly]

I don't need to show you anything, and I doubt you would be persuaded by anything.

That isn't how a debate works, it's a two sided affair.
It's a bit hyprocritical of you so say that, after you asked me to show all my sources...

How do you know that we won't be persuaded unless you try, I may be a remainer but I'm interested in other peoples political viewpoint

 

[fowler9]

And UK is definitely germany's 2 biggest export market, different sources may be slightly different, but know this: An estimated 3 million Germans will lose their jobs if they have a bad deal with us. Estimated that is, it may not be too accurate.

Got any figures to back that up because that isn't what I am looking at. You can't just make stuff up and say it is definitely true.

 

[muddythefish]

And UK is definitely germany's 2 biggest export market, different sources may be slightly different, but know this: An estimated 3 million Germans will lose their jobs if they have a bad deal with us. Estimated that is, it may not be too accurate.

That can't be true.

Germany sells its superb manufactured goods all over the world (Global Germany). We're just a very small market for them

 

[najaB]

And UK is definitely germany's 2 biggest export market...

Would you be as kind as to provide a source since that contradicts what I've seen elsewhere.

 

[DarloRich]

I don't need to show you anything, and I doubt you would be persuaded by anything.

Thanks for confirming you have no idea how debate workls or any substance behind your statements. Mind how you go.

 

[highspeed990]

Thanks for confirming you have no idea how debate workls or any substance behind your statements. Mind how you go.

I suggest you look up the definition of debate, and seeing as you haven't shown me that you cannot have one without being childish, and in a respectful manner, I'm going to ignore all further posts by you.

 

[furnessvale]

Would you be as kind as to provide a source since that contradicts what I've seen elsewhere.

According to wiki, the UK is 3rd, behind the USA and France.
Imports from the UK to Germany don't even figure in the top 10 so the balance is very much in Germany's favour.

 

[DarloRich]

I suggest you look up the definition of debate, and seeing as you haven't shown me that you cannot have one without being childish, and in a respectful manner, I'm going to ignore all further posts by you.

What a surprise. Challenged. Nothing to offer. Run away.

 

[jon0844]

According to wiki, the UK is 3rd, behind the USA and France.
Imports from the UK to Germany don't even figure in the top 10 so the balance is very much in Germany's favour.

What I'd still like to know is how potentially higher prices for German goods (especially cars) harms Germany as much as it harms us? The fact being that we aren't likely to refuse to buy a BMW or Audi. We'll just have to pay more, as we arguably already have to thanks to the exchange rates.

Are we suggesting that leavers are going to boycott German goods?

If we're still going to stump up, how does that hurt jobs for them?

But then, what do we sell to Germany that they will gladly stump up for?

 

[birchesgreen]

I think people are too hung up on the finished goods (the cars) and forget all the components made all over the world that make these finished goods up. The biggest worry to me is the effect of leaving on supply chains, it could (probably will be) be absolute chaos!

 

[DarloRich]

What I'd still like to know is how potentially higher prices for German goods (especially cars) harms Germany as much as it harms us? The fact being that we aren't likely to refuse to buy a BMW or Audi. We'll just have to pay more, as we arguably already have to thanks to the exchange rates.

Are we suggesting that leavers are going to boycott German goods?

If we're still going to stump up, how does that hurt jobs for them?

But then, what do we sell to Germany that they will gladly stump up for?

That is the key isnt is? BMW ( and other German manufactures) know they will continue to sell their equipment in the UK and they know hypocritical leavers will continue to buy. I am unsure what the Germans will want or need to buy from us.

I think people are too hung up on the finished goods (the cars) and forget all the components made all over the world that make these finished goods up. The biggest worry to me is the effect of leaving on supply chains, it could (probably will be) be absolute chaos!

I agree. But this thread shows it is difficult for many leavers to grasp impacts on solid, final products. They cant cope with the level of detail required to protect the supply chains of the industry we do have in this country.

And UK is definitely germany's 2 biggest export market, different sources may be slightly different, but know this: An estimated 3 million Germans will lose their jobs if they have a bad deal with us. Estimated that is, it may not be too accurate.

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt or Destatis) puts us third on their list of top 10 exporters and not placed on their top 10 list of importers. We fall behind mighty Belgium in the german import stakes.

God sorry. That's one of those lying government bodies again. Yeah. really we are bigly first in everything. Massive.

We however have countries lining up to trade.

I see you subscribe to the David Davis school of thought. We can trade with Czechoslovakia. A country that ceased to exist on the 1st of Janaury 1993. FFS. Perhaps he can secure trade deals with Prussia, Saxony & Nassau. I hear Narnia is keen to enter talks. Middle Earth is very keen on a free trade zone.

 

[furnessvale]

I see you subscribe to the David Davis school of thought. We can trade with Czechoslovakia. A country that ceased to exist on the 1st of Janaury 1993. FFS. Perhaps he can secure trade deals with Prussia, Saxony & Nassau. I hear Narnia is keen to enter talks. Middle Earth is very keen on a free trade zone.

It is sad that you continually introduce such a mocking tone to the debate.
If I could be bothered, I would ask you to look at the list of 50 or so "countries" the EU has managed to negotiate free trade deals with in its existence.
If I could be bothered, I would suggest that an independent UK, negotiating on behalf of ONE country, would do much better.
But then, I can't be bothered.

 

[Barn]

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt or Destatis) puts us third on their list of top 10 exporters and not placed on their top 10 list of importers. We fall behind mighty Belgium in the german import stakes.
God sorry. That's one of those lying government bodies again. Yeah. really we are bigly first in everything. Massive.

I confess to finding it slightly strange when I frequently see people simultaneously making the points that we export hardly any goods to Europe but that any disruption to our goods exports to Europe would be absolutely calamitous to our economy.

 

[cactustwirly]

I confess to finding it slightly strange when I frequently see people simultaneously making the points that we export hardly any goods to Europe but that any disruption to our goods exports to Europe would be absolutely calamitous to our economy.

Yes because we're mostly a service economy, so we're never going to be the biggest exporter.

Which is exactly why a trade deal with India etc won't work, we don't really have anything they want, and we already trade services with the USA.

 

[Barn]

Yes because we're mostly a service economy, so we're never going to be the biggest exporter

Correct. And for this reason, if we were to negotiate our own FTAs, we would try our best to have them deal appropriately with the financial services, creative industries, professional services and other service exports that we specialise in. In many FTAs these items are excluded: put into the 'too difficult' category because many of our EU neighbours concentrate on goods exports.

 

[highspeed990]

Right guys, people have asked me to back up my statements: This link shows among many things that 44% of exports in goods and services go to EU countries, meaning we export 56% outside the EU, and not 80%. 53% of imports are from the EU, not 80%. It also says that an estimated 2% of our exports to the EU aren't actual exports and they just pass through ports, making the exports to non EU countries 42%.

It also shows that UK is Germany's second biggest export market in the EU and third in the world, however another pro brexit site says we are the second biggest in the world. Anyway here's the link, and these are government facts:

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

The following pro brexit side says we are germany's second largest export market in the world:

http://www.betteroffout.net/jobs-depend-on-trade-so-why-do-we-need-the-eu/

If anyone would like me to prove anything else or I've skipped anything, tell me and I'll find more information. I'm happy to discuss and debate with anyone unless I've specifically said I won't respond to you, and I will only do this if you've been repeatedly making condescending and/or insulting comments.

 

[highspeed990]

It is sad that you continually introduce such a mocking tone to the debate.
If I could be bothered, I would ask you to look at the list of 50 or so "countries" the EU has managed to negotiate free trade deals with in its existence.
If I could be bothered, I would suggest that an independent UK, negotiating on behalf of ONE country, would do much better.
But then, I can't be bothered.

Ignore people like him. They're either overestimating their own intelligence, or letting off steam by speaking to people in a manner they wouldn't dare to in person. They usually slither away silently when facts are presented.