Are remaining 9 car Pendolinos likely to be lengthened

[Chester1]

There's tilting all the way to Glasgow

I take it from that statement that you've never travelled the route onboard a Pendolino or Voyager.

I have but not for 3 or 4 years.

Essentially there's no tilt north of Carstairs (the EPS section at Shieldmuir is too short to make any difference), and none towards Edinburgh.
Nor, for that matter, between Acton Grange and north of Wigan.
Low speed limits through Preston and Carlisle areas also mean EPS is not used there either.

Thanks for the detail! The time difference between Birmingham would be mimimal on a 397 or 801 compared with a Voyager with superior acceleration cancelling out much of the time lost through 110mph limit.

With Alliance cancelling its plan to buy new stock I think the chances of new tilting trains being made for UK use are now close to zero. There are capacity solutions that can bridge the gap until 2026 that are cheaper than a small bespoke order of new tilting trains.

CrossCountry really needs more capacity and should get a new fleet to send its 221s (with tilting equipment reinstalled) to the new WCML franchise and its Mark III sets to the scrap yard. Unfortunately that won't happen! 23 extra Voyagers would be more than enough to boost capacity to maximum on London-Chester/Holyhead with an hourly clock face timetable to Chester and two hourly to Holyhead (instead of a huge gap in the middle of the day) + provide as many extra services on other parts of the franchise as capacity allows for.

 

[The Planner]

That's impressive acceleration to 110 mph if it nullifies the Voyager tilt times....

 

[thenorthern]

Given there is a new franchise coming up there may be an option for more trains in it and it would make sense to have ones that can tilt as there is the technology for it so why not use it.

I was surprised that Transpennie Express didn't order tilting versions of the Class 397 given that they will be limited to 110 on the West Coast Main Line without tilting.

 

[MrCub]

And how much life do we think the Pendos still have to give? What is their overall condition mechanically and structurally? Are they likely to be replaced wholesale in the medium term or will they go on and on like some other stock?

 

[thenorthern]

And how much life do we think the Pendos still have to give? What is their overall condition mechanically and structurally? Are they likely to be replaced wholesale in the medium term or will they go on and on like some other stock?

Depends the trains they replaced were anywhere between 35 years old (Class 86) and 10 years old (The newest Class 90s). Because of their unique status of being the only electric train that can operate at 125 mph on the West Coast Main Line I would think probably around 20-25 years is the maximum realistically.

 

[NotATrainspott]

If there were any hope of extra capacity being provided on the route, it would have most likely been included in the West Coast Partnership information. Since it wasn't, then we can assume that the DfT sees there being no point investing in extra rolling stock for the franchise. Remember that there are other franchises which provide capacity on the WCML and are in a better position to increase it without HS2 affecting them. At the southern end there's much that could be done if all of the 360s ended up at London Midland, extending more services to 12-car and making it practical to push more commuters off of the ICWC services. For the northern end, TPE will now offer a competitive InterCity product with the 397s and the new Liverpool-Glasgow services. They've got options for more 397s to be delivered so any excess demand north of Wigan could be sorted that way.

 

[Bevan Price]

It is 12 coaches that are the problem, it is why (at least in part) the argument against HS2 by using longer 390's doesn't hold water.

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Yes, Liverpool Lime Street can just hold an 11 coach Pendolino, and it would be almost impossible (or prohibitively expensive) to make the platforms long enough for 12 (or more) coaches.

 

[Chester1]

That's impressive acceleration to 110 mph if it nullifies the Voyager tilt times....

I didn't say nullify but reduce to a minimal time. The steepness of the middle section of the route combined with the limited tilting north of Wigan should mean that if a couple of stops are removed the added journey time penalty should be very low. Between Wigan and Glasgow a TPE 350 is approximately 9 minutes slower than a VT 221 but makes 5 stops compared with the 221s 4 stops. A LM 350 is approximately 4 minutes slower between New Street and Crewe but makes an extra stop. A 397 or 801 should be slightly faster than a 350. I know my calculations are rough but if stopping patterns are alterted the Birmingham to Glasgow/Edinburgh journey time penalty could be kept very low.

 

[najaB]

Between Wigan and Glasgow a TPE 350 is approximately 9 minutes slower than a VT 221 but makes 5 stops compared with the 221s 4 stops.

You've not accounted for double the dwell time at stations. It's more like 16 minutes once you take that into consideration.

 

[Mordac]

You've not accounted for double the dwell time at stations. It's more like 16 minutes once you take that into consideration.

If the approach to Glasgow is anything like that to Edinburgh, there's so much padding on the timetable that southbound times give a much more accurate picture of the actual time taken than northbound ones. Either that or just count the time from Preston to Carstairs.

 

[Ianno87]

You've not accounted for double the dwell time at stations. It's more like 16 minutes once you take that into consideration.

How does that work? 350s have faster dwell times than 221s; that would reduce the differential, not increase.

 

[Chester1]

Its all a bit irrelevant at this stage. There are capacity increases between London and Birmingham by Chiltern, Birmingham to Crewe (making Liverpool LM services 8 cars) and TPE Liverpool and Manchester to Scotland that would all need to be filled up before more capacity on ICWC services would make financial sense. I am not sure even then it will make sense because 11 car trains will be difficult to cascade after 2026 and the Pendalinos should have at least another 10 years of service left. The 21 x 9 car units will be much easier to cascade. There is no point making a bespoke order of 42 new tilting cars for them to be surpless to requirements in 2026. Refurbishing and reinstalling tilt and cascading CrossCountry's 221s would make more sense. They need a big upgrade to last another 15-20 years anyway! Stadler bi modes would be more suitable for CrossCountry or 800s for East Midlands and cascade the Meridians to CrossCountry.

 

[thenorthern]

Given that after HS2 phase 1 beyond Lichfield the line will continue to use the West Coast Main Line to get to Glasgow, Liverpool, Preston and Manchester I would think the HS2 trains will be built for tilting operation as it would be unrealistic to have them running at "up to 250mph" and then limited to 110 mph beyond Lichfield.

Given that the Class 390s were built for 140 MPH operation but are limited to 125 mph I think it wouldn't be hard to add a couple of extra trains if capacity requires it.

 

[The Planner]

They will not tilt.

 

[HSTEd]

There is always the chance that some of the 9-car sets could be taken off the route post HS2 and sent someplace else, if the electrification programme somehow gets back on track.

 

[najaB]

How does that work? 350s have faster dwell times than 221s; that would reduce the differential, not increase.

The Voyager timings include more time stopped at stations. To compare like-for-like you need to pretend that the two services spend the same amount of time stopped. This has the effect of 'speeding up' the Voyager.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Given that after HS2 phase 1 beyond Lichfield the line will continue to use the West Coast Main Line to get to Glasgow, Liverpool, Preston and Manchester I would think the HS2 trains will be built for tilting operation as it would be unrealistic to have them running at "up to 250mph" and then limited to 110 mph beyond Lichfield.

Given that the Class 390s were built for 140 MPH operation but are limited to 125 mph I think it wouldn't be hard to add a couple of extra trains if capacity requires it.

The specification for the classic-compatible fleet has already been released to prospective bidders and, lo and behold, there will be no tilt.

Please remember that not having tilt means saving considerable amounts of mass. Without that mass, and with the high-performance traction package capable of reaching 205km/h in between Euston and Old Oak Common, acceleration away from speed restrictions will be even faster. Tilt means not having to slow down and speed up, which is harder for a tilting train because they're that much heavier.

 

[driver_m]

You can get a 221 non tilt to Chester on time from Euston. The issue is what gets held up behind it because of it not tilting. The knock on effect. The 350 is a seriously impressive unit performance wise but it still gets in the way if Joe bloggs decides to take his time getting on and off the set. What you need on the West coast line more than anything is utter reliability of the train in front to be working at 100% and to leave at right time, every time. A tilting 221 is more of a pain if you're stuck behind it because it's got de-rating engines or a traction pack out.

As to the original issue, every line wants an 11 car. The 9 cars have to go somewhere I wouldn't imagine them being stretched to 11 and a 10 car can't work without serious rebuilding.

 

[Mag_seven]

Originally they were all going to be EIGHT cars, till the then Railtrack messed up PUG1 and PUG2 (remember them!).

http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/single-view/view/storm-clouds-gather-over-wcml-upgrade.html

 

[thenorthern]

There is always the chance that some of the 9-car sets could be taken off the route post HS2 and sent someplace else, if the electrification programme somehow gets back on track.

I can't see them leaving the West Coast Main Line any time soon simply because of their ability to tilt, they may end up with London Midland or Transpennie in the future but given their unique ability I can't see them moving to another line.

 

[edwin_m]

Depends the trains they replaced were anywhere between 35 years old (Class 86) and 10 years old (The newest Class 90s). Because of their unique status of being the only electric train that can operate at 125 mph on the West Coast Main Line I would think probably around 20-25 years is the maximum realistically.

By the mid-2020s all the principal Pendolino destinations will have their principal services provided by HS2 conventional compatible units. This will create a surplus of Pendolinos, which any new ones ordered now would just add to after less than a decade of service.

The HS2 units may be slower than Pendolinos on some sections, due to lack of tilt and possibly traction current limitations. However they will certainly be faster end-to-end on any London journeys due to using HS2 phase 1. There is also scope for some sections of the WCML to be increased beyond 110mph for non-tilting trains - it's not been done because nobody has really needed to run one before now.