First Group: General Discussion

[overthewater]

If any of the areas were to go for franchising, would they be worth buying?

Wouldn't First be entitled to a pay off because there lose its core work?

 

[Robertj21a]

Wouldn't First be entitled to a pay off because there lose its core work?

No, as far as I'm aware. They're not being taken over and, presumably, would still be free to include themselves as a willing franchisee (if they met the criteria).

 

[DragonEast]

The latest bus business review seemed a fairly downbeat (but realistic) assessment of the business. They've done everything they can think of and still the business (at least in terms of costs which are still higher than competitors, even disregarding the debt burden) and in most cases the passengers (and even the staff), haven't responded as they should have. Why? I fear even the seemingly well-conceived Ipswich revamp might be the latest example.

I know everybody is suffering. Except they aren't. The others in the main adapt their business and get the result they expect. First Bus often don't, it seems. (I'm inclined to the view that lack of resources, if it plays any part, is an excuse, not a reason). Are they too clumsy, hammy and patchy? It often looks like it. Their management just don't inspire confidence anywhere along the line as far as I can see. So the only thing left is cost cutting, again, which at least is under their control. And whistling in the dark.

Often reading on here, the options suggested look like those that might come from a receiver. Is the business really in that dire straits? I know it looks like the bankers bus company (as well perhaps as the auld description of the bonkers bus company). But if they can't run the business successfully, then surely it's fair to say that someone else should be given a go. Of course I realise that the bigger problem is that probably no-one wants it!

 

[317 forever]

Naturally we'd expect to see it focussed on ADL 200 and 400. Not expecting much for Wright so similar to last year.

Bristol is perhaps why the order is being delayed with no Metrobus announcement until after the election?

I did predict e200mmc for Kernow (but not e400) and a sizeable Bristol order irrespective of any Metrobus award. Leeds is due a chunk too but guess we won't have too much longer to wait

I wonder whether there is at least an approximate timescale for Metrobus to open yet?

 

[317 forever]

New bus order? Whoaa . . . surely you've all missed the Really Important News . . . they've appointed a Customer Service Improvement Director. Now that Really Will Make a Difference. Get the make-up bag out. Bus orders are old hat. When we're talking . . . Transformation!!! Though disappointingly you've have thought they could have managed Albus Dumbledore or Lord Voldemort, or even Gandalf, perhaps, but perhaps they're on the way (by First Bus, that'd explain it).

Next thing they'll say is ... First transforming travel! :roll: Oh, they've done that before.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I wonder whether there is at least an approximate timescale for Metrobus to open yet?

Update in March was

• Ashton Vale to Temple Meads (replace existing Park and Ride) - due to start in September;
• Ashton Vale to Hengrove (along the new South Bristol Link) - due to start in the autumn;
• Cribbs Causeway through the city centre to Hengrove - due to start in November;
• Emersons Green to the city centre - due to start sometime next year after work on Bromley Heath viaduct is finished.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The latest bus business review seemed a fairly downbeat (but realistic) assessment of the business. They've done everything they can think of and still the business (at least in terms of costs which are still higher than competitors, even disregarding the debt burden) and in most cases the passengers (and even the staff), haven't responded as they should have. Why? I fear even the seemingly well-conceived Ipswich revamp might be the latest example.

I know everybody is suffering. Except they aren't. The others in the main adapt their business and get the result they expect. First Bus often don't, it seems. (I'm inclined to the view that lack of resources, if it plays any part, is an excuse, not a reason). Are they too clumsy, hammy and patchy? It often looks like it. Their management just don't inspire confidence anywhere along the line as far as I can see. So the only thing left is cost cutting, again, which at least is under their control. And whistling in the dark.

Often reading on here, the options suggested look like those that might come from a receiver. Is the business really in that dire straits? I know it looks like the bankers bus company (as well perhaps as the auld description of the bonkers bus company). But if they can't run the business successfully, then surely it's fair to say that someone else should be given a go. Of course I realise that the bigger problem is that probably no-one wants it!

Firstly, don't believe most of what is posted on this thread. Sadly, all too often are people speculating, drawing wide conclusions from the highest level information.

Secondly, others are suffering. We've seen plenty of smaller firms go to the wall. More pertinently, the big groups are cutting back in certain of their territories; even Stagecoach in their Newcastle ops have trimmed back their non core operations and they've also effected cuts in North Devon, Fife etc and closed a number of depots as well. Arriva have done much the same with their Midlands business, closing one depot and selling another and again cutting services etc. How about Go Ahead - their Wiltshire ops are certainly thinner than they were but that's nothing compared to their Eastern travails.

First have certainly got problems but no one on this board really understands the actual picture within the various subsidiaries. As for selling off to NX or Go Ahead - that's been predicted for the last 5 years.

With the benefit of hindsight, I am now more of the opinion of Winston - a large scale divestment earlier of something like Greyhound may have been the best solution?

 

[Volvodart]

With the benefit of hindsight, I am now more of the opinion of Winston - a large scale divestment earlier of something like Greyhound may have been the best solution?

I think it may have been you that said it, but that would have meant a hit to the balance sheet, as they would not have got what they paid for it given Greyhounds trading history.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

No, as far as I'm aware. They're not being taken over and, presumably, would still be free to include themselves as a willing franchisee (if they met the criteria).

The legislation would seem to allow that though I personally feel a business cannot be effectively privatised without compensation.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I think it may have been you that said it, but that would have meant a hit to the balance sheet, as they would not have got what they paid for it given Greyhounds trading history.

Indeed it would and perhaps that was the reason for doing it? Don't know TOT so can't say

However, I worked for a business that got itself into a similar situation. It didn't have a rights issue but it did suspend the dividend and divested itself of a number of subsidiaries. It still has some legacy issues (e.g. pension deficit) but it is stable and repaying the dividend and the share price has shot up.

I wouldn't always get too hung up on the share price though. There is invariably a time lag between the actual performance being reflected the share price (both ways). Also, if it were SO important..... Since 1st Jan 2015, the FGP share price has risen from 106p to 139p; Stagecoach has fallen from 370p to 209p.....

 

[DragonEast]

Firstly, don't believe most of what is posted on this thread. . . . How about Go Ahead - their Wiltshire ops are certainly thinner than they were but that's nothing compared to their Eastern travails.

First have certainly got problems but no one on this board really understands the actual picture within the various subsidiaries.

Agreed. I don't know the national picture, or anything like the complete local one for that matter. It might be interesting to see the eventual outcome of the current First v Go Ahead battle for Colchester-Uni-Clacton routes, probably one of the busiest local routes; and both (and Arriva) have done well out of the Essex comprehensive re-tenders at the expense of the independents, but I doubt anyone is saved by rural, evening and Sunday services. I'm beginning to admire the GoAhead tenacity if nothing else.

I don't have any problem with depot rationalisation or network and route reviews, indeed I'd worry more about a decent sized operator that didn't. But I'd look for it as part of a strategy that delivers, rather than as a reaction that raises more questions than it answers. First Essex have done the depot rationalisation, the customer service PR, the network consolidation (not just reduction), and are now highly competitive. The Suffolk unit have done the same, and I think are getting the quality ingredient right too. The open question is how it all translates - or not - into the bottom line. (In Norfolk it seems to be working, and even First are trumpeting it, the best indicator we have, I suspect). The problem, I think, is that often it's the same ingredients for a quality operator and a cowboy one. And, of course, being in the right place at the right time. The one that I suspect gives First the most difficulty of all. (And I'm not thinking of congestion, though of course that matters too).

 

[overthewater]

Has it all come down to the fact O'Tool bet on Black and it come up Red? IE it was hoping to win some rail franchises, but won nothing. Over the course of 5 years there has been a major change on how people travel and do shopping. Thus there focused on the wrong type of passengers since those are declining, Instead of focusing on commuters.

I have my doubt selling off Greyhound now would work, But O'tool is determinded not to sell of the rest of UK Bus, which is the part of the company that causing all the trouble.

 

[Robertj21a]

The legislation would seem to allow that though I personally feel a business cannot be effectively privatised without compensation.

I'd love to agree with you on that, hopefully it will prove correct if and when. My fear is that the view may be that a de-regulated bus operation, where others (subject to certain criteria) are totally free to compete, could be viewed as having little that needs compensation - the land/depots/buses/parts etc would still be owned by the operator, for them to dispose of as they wish.

 

[317 forever]

Update in March was

• Ashton Vale to Temple Meads (replace existing Park and Ride) - due to start in September;
• Ashton Vale to Hengrove (along the new South Bristol Link) - due to start in the autumn;
• Cribbs Causeway through the city centre to Hengrove - due to start in November;
• Emersons Green to the city centre - due to start sometime next year after work on Bromley Heath viaduct is finished.

Thank you for this update. Even if these dates slip, it should be easy to ride most if not all of it next year now.

 

[winston270twm]

First Group boss loses £723,415 bonus after Croydon tram crash that left seven people dead and 58 injured

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...roup-boss-loses-723-415-bonus-tram-crash.html

 

[DragonEast]

First Group boss loses £723,415 bonus after Croydon tram crash that left seven people dead and 58 injured

Not surprising. Once the lawyers have got involved in the Inquests/Inquiry it'll be interesting to see what comes out.

 

[DragonEast]

Thus there focused on the wrong type of passengers since those are declining, Instead of focusing on commuters.

Certainly in the Eastern ops they're doing exactly that, focussing on commuters (and students, another growth, but price is an issue). But the drivers, and buses, have to do something for the rest of the day.

I think the issue is that any operational issues are most likely to show up at the start (upon set-off) and end (as a result of the cumulative congestion) of the day, when you can least afford to upset the heavily paying commuter/season ticket customer. And adding services and buses (not least as a result of cleverly getting subsidies wherever they can find them from both public and commercial sources) they are now running very hot. We look like we might be getting the strange result that the "quality" independents are being undercut by the "cowboy" nationals!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Certainly in the Eastern ops they're doing exactly that, focussing on commuters (and students, another growth, but price is an issue). But the drivers, and buses, have to do something for the rest of the day.

I think the issue is that any operational issues are most likely to show up at the start (upon set-off) and end (as a result of the cumulative congestion) of the day, when you can least afford to upset the heavily paying commuter/season ticket customer. And adding services and buses (not least as a result of cleverly getting subsidies wherever they can find them from both public and commercial sources) they are now running very hot. We look like we might be getting the strange result that the "quality" independents are being undercut by the "cowboy" nationals!

First are not targeting the wrong customers, OTW. Think of the number of instances where they've increased/improved their student services in recent years, whether that be Bath and Bristol, Cornwall, Swansea, Stirling, York, or have been awarded Park and Ride schemes.

The problem is, as Dragon East says, that you can resource to peak (commuters) but...

• The increase in home working and other changes mean that there are fewer commuters and
• The central part of the day has an unenviable problem in that there is reduced footfall in town centres and those that do venture in are invariably pensioners for which you get a poor remuneration

This is highlighted in this press release...

"We have seen some big changes in our customers travel patterns in the last 2 years because of things like internet shopping, working from home and traffic congestion in our towns and cities. We have to adapt to these changes and that is why we are consulting on these proposals. We want our customers and other local stakeholders to help us shape a network of services in South & East Ayrshire that best serves the current and future needs of local workers, students, job seekers, retired people and visitors."

That's right - it's Stagecoach cutting services for the same reasons that First have highlighted. The problem for First is that the areas that were perhaps some of the best areas for travel are now experiencing some of the biggest challenges - e.g. Rotherham, Oldham, Potteries, etc

 

[DragonEast]

As everyone point out, changes to brick and mortar retail (surely there must come a time when our homes and wardrobes are so full of stuff after the buying splurge of the last 50 years, even without the internet), working patterns (though i think the demise of the shift working factory is more significant than home working, the alternative to which is car travel rather than bus travel), the exponential growth in pensioners (but not in the income from their passes); and other external factors are very important. But charity starts at home . . .

I'm still surprised how willing paying punters are to travel by bus, and even increasingly so, BUT NOT if the bus doesn't turn up or rattles and shakes them to bits, or perhaps even more importantly they feel they are treated like dirt. (The K&C lesson, perhaps?) Because as with everything else in modern life it's the "soft" issues that matter. Some young drivers (and even Giles Fearnley) get it, it's just the bunch in the middle that I'm not so sure about. (And I'm sure it's a problem for the rest of us too, how often don't we help because "they won't/don't appreciate it". Um, that's not the point). You can drag the horse to water (or to the customer service training well), but you can't make it drink.

 

[Dai Corner]

Hasn't Railway commuting been increasing, to the extent that some routes can barely cope and desperately need more capacity?

Why is commuting by bus falling at the same time?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

As everyone point out, changes to brick and mortar retail (surely there must come a time when our homes and wardrobes are so full of stuff after the buying splurge of the last 50 years, even without the internet), working patterns (though i think the demise of the shift working factory is more significant than home working, the alternative to which is car travel rather than bus travel), the exponential growth in pensioners (but not in the income from their passes); and other external factors are very important. But charity starts at home . . .

I'm still surprised how willing paying punters are to travel by bus, and even increasingly so, BUT NOT if the bus doesn't turn up or rattles and shakes them to bits, or perhaps even more importantly they feel they are treated like dirt. (The K&C lesson, perhaps?) Because as with everything else in modern life it's the "soft" issues that matter. Some young drivers (and even Giles Fearnley) get it, it's just the bunch in the middle that I'm not so sure about. (And I'm sure it's a problem for the rest of us too, how often don't we help because "they won't/don't appreciate it". Um, that's not the point). You can drag the horse to water, but you can't make it drink.

I can't disagree on the need to have reliability (the actual bus turns up and on time) - the single biggest factor cited by customers. Congestion is seemingly a greater problem - is it an increase in vans running hither and thither delivering parcels?

Also, the 1.6m extra cars in the last 5 years that have gone on the road? I know that people will say "if there was a decent alternative, then I'd use it" but that isn't the case often. If that were the case, there wouldn't be queues into city centres where there are parallel bus services, tram lines, rail services etc. For many, it's a case of a lifestyle choice (they have an divine right to drive their little metal box into town, listen to their music and not have to share their space with anyone) or they have a car and their decisions in where to live and work are then enabled/defined by having that car.

I realise that this is getting a bit tangential but these are the headwinds that bus companies are experiencing. The problem for First is that they were in a worse place because of the mismanagement of the past.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Hasn't Railway commuting been increasing, to the extent that some routes can barely cope and desperately need more capacity?

Why is commuting by bus falling at the same time?

Rail doesn't share it's infrastructure to the same extent.

I am part of the problem - I live in the sticks and so drive into Bristol about once a week; my car ownership allows me to do this. I see people commuting into the centre by car and bus. It only takes one badly parked car or a delivery vehicle blocking the bus lane and service reliability is badly affected.

That's assuming that there is bus priority there!

 

[overthewater]

"We have seen some big changes in our customers travel patterns in the last 2 years because of things like internet shopping, working from home and traffic congestion in our towns and cities. We have to adapt to these changes and that is why we are consulting on these proposals. We want our customers and other local stakeholders to help us shape a network of services in South & East Ayrshire that best serves the current and future needs of local workers, students, job seekers, retired people and visitors."

That's right - it's Stagecoach cutting services for the same reasons that First have highlighted. The problem for First is that the areas that were perhaps some of the best areas for travel are now experiencing some of the biggest challenges - e.g. Rotherham, Oldham, Potteries, etc

Yet you look around Ayr and the congestion is awful and stagecoach had to put in extra resources to make the current timetable work

 

[Sybic26]

From an article in the Aberdeen Evening Express regarding changes proposed to First Aberdeen services. The last set of route changes in Aberdeen took place in April 2017.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp...rmation-proposed-changes-aberdeen-bus-routes/

I also noted on the First Group site that the Bristol based Director of Financial Operations, Libby Scourse, to move to Dallas, USA, for new position this summer. She will be working with Greyhound

 

[KendalKing]

Hasn't Railway commuting been increasing, to the extent that some routes can barely cope and desperately need more capacity?

Why is commuting by bus falling at the same time?

This is very true where I live, about 14-months ago Stagecoach cut my local service by 70%. The first bus in the morning is now at 9.40 (previously 7.05) which is no good for commuters. Most people now use the train as it is both cheaper and faster then the bus.

The bus takes 40-mins, and cost £4.90 return, whereas the train takes 10-mins, and cost only £2.05 return, also car ownership as doubled since the cuts to my local bus service was made.

 

[overthewater]

This is very true where I live, about 14-months ago Stagecoach cut my local service by 70%. The first bus in the morning is now at 9.40 (previously 7.05) which is no good for commuters. Most people now use the train as it is both cheaper and faster then the bus.

The bus takes 40-mins, and cost £4.90 return, whereas the train takes 10-mins, and cost only £2.05 return, also car ownership as doubled since the cuts to my local bus service was made.

That just stupid management that in place there, mind there seems to be flavour of the months of late.

 

[THarris123]

Hasn't Railway commuting been increasing, to the extent that some routes can barely cope and desperately need more capacity?

Why is commuting by bus falling at the same time?

Better parking at stations, new homes being built closer to stations and people moving.

People won't go by car if they end up doing the same long commute day in day out and sitting in a traffic jam each time, so they'll look to go by bus. The issue is bus services have become so unreliable nationally. Passengers want a comfortable and simple ride with a cheap simple fare to pay. If it doesn't turn up on time or at all, if it is very unfrequent or if it isn't any quicker than going by car, they'll look away from buses and this is what the public are doing. All the operators need to look to do things simply and improve things for passengers and drivers, until they do that they'll continue to lose revenue and profits.

 

[THarris123]

This is very true where I live, about 14-months ago Stagecoach cut my local service by 70%. The first bus in the morning is now at 9.40 (previously 7.05) which is no good for commuters. Most people now use the train as it is both cheaper and faster then the bus.

The bus takes 40-mins, and cost £4.90 return, whereas the train takes 10-mins, and cost only £2.05 return, also car ownership as doubled since the cuts to my local bus service was made.

The issue is the train fares are incredibly daft and the bus services aren't there to provide a cheaper alternative.

Look at my travels over the last couple of weeks:
A single on the train from Taunton to Bristol at about 20.15 was £12.70 and as the 29 doesn't run after 17.20, that was my only choice. 29 would have been £5.20 to Wells or £11 to Bristol.
Then a single from Falmouth to Plymouth the other day was £10.30. The bus services down there are pretty good and I could have got to Plymouth by bus, but it's more expensive at £13 (ride cornwall)

I think there should be better interworking between the buses and railways and there should be decent simple links from rail stations

 

[DragonEast]

I suspect many of us may have reached the stage where bus fares are more expensive than competing train journeys. With lower subsidy, ever increasing costs (on everything from salaries to insurance, estate costs and maintenance and fuel) and lower patronage, delays and fleet renewal (DDA if nothing else), what alternative is there to keep in business? Phase out the on board ticket in favour of prepaid multiples next? (It'd save costs, and reduce delays which we all want, at least). My approach is to go the other way and cut down on the number of journeys I make to save costs. I suspect I'm not alone.

I suspect too that whereas computers allow us to make lots of calculations the fomulae to decide what level of service is approriate can give some pretty nonsensical results. Essex' funding formula is leaving some medium sized towns (without rail) cut off outside weekday daytimes (though retaining evening services on Sundays) whilst kept for others with bus and rail alternatives.

We all seem to expect some sort of magic wand to sort out every problem in life, but who's got it? Since OMO buses have hardly improved efficiency at all, or rather any efficiency gains have been more than wiped out. In modern jargon, it's not sustainable. Perhaps time for a reform of the taxi too off the major corridors, somewhere between Uber and DRT, and cheaper. Meanwhile everyone is struggling to find something within the price we are prepared to pay. or perhaps we've just forgotten that life has always been get what you're given, for most people most of the time.

After all the heading of this thread is Operations and Improvement isn't it?

 

[winston270twm]

Better parking at stations, new homes being built closer to stations and people moving.

People won't go by car if they end up doing the same long commute day in day out and sitting in a traffic jam each time, so they'll look to go by bus. The issue is bus services have become so unreliable nationally. Passengers want a comfortable and simple ride with a cheap simple fare to pay. If it doesn't turn up on time or at all, if it is very unfrequent or if it isn't any quicker than going by car, they'll look away from buses and this is what the public are doing. All the operators need to look to do things simply and improve things for passengers and drivers, until they do that they'll continue to lose revenue and profits.

How figure? Those people will sit in exactly the same traffic that they would be sat in their car. At least in their own car they have their own comforts, don't have to share the space with others & in these temperatures, hopefully aircon.

More & more people seem to be switching to the train to make some journey's they would have previously only ever done by car, buses just get snarled up in the same congestion and is making them even less attractive / reliable