General Election 2017: The Results and Aftermath

[takno]

Despite all that is said above, the actuality of the 2017 General Election result proves such polls, well meaning in their very nature, cannot be said to be infallible.

Except that this is a poll with 25-50 times the typical sample size, and comes from the polling company that was pretty much spot on its later predictions. It's going to be pretty accurate

 

[Domh245]

Except that this is a poll with 25-50 times the typical sample size, and comes from the polling company that was pretty much spot on its later predictions. It's going to be pretty accurate

And further to that, it is a poll on what people did, not what people are going to do, which will help mask some of the issues that surround polling, such as changing your mind, saying you are going to vote but then don't, and the Shy Tory effect.

 

[me123]

Meanwhile, a boss at an IT firm sent his employees an e-mail on General Election day telling them to vote Conservatives, and stating that if Labour do win "Labour voters will be made redundant first". Mr Brooker claims it was in jest.

BBC news

Sounds like a lovely man to work for.

 

[Howardh]

Meanwhile, a boss at an IT firm sent his employees an e-mail on General Election day telling them to vote Conservatives, and stating that if Labour do win "Labour voters will be made redundant first". Mr Brooker claims it was in jest.

BBC news

Sounds like a lovely man to work for.

Shouldn't it be "whomever"?

 

[Howardh]

Despite all that is said above, the actuality of the 2017 General Election result proves such polls, well meaning in their very nature, cannot be said to be infallible.

If we brought he voting age down to 12, the Tories would never get in again! More flippantly, if the 16-17yr olds had a vote at the referendum - and they should have as it's their future we're destroying, maybe the result would have been different.

 

[northwichcat]

Despite all that is said above, the actuality of the 2017 General Election result proves such polls, well meaning in their very nature, cannot be said to be infallible.

But YouGov were the one company who used a different method and predicted a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party.

 

[berneyarms]

Polls by their very nature will usually give a national snapshot.

They don't reflect local constituency issues and with the first past the post electoral system that is a very important difference - without going through every single constituency individually it's going to be difficult to predict results using opinion polls, especially the closer the parties become.

 

[northwichcat]

If we brought he voting age down to 12, the Tories would never get in again! More flippantly, if the 16-17yr olds had a vote at the referendum - and they should have as it's their future we're destroying, maybe the result would have been different.

That's why there's opposition to a referendum on the leaving terms. The people who were 16-17 year olds in 2016 replacing deceased persons as voters by 2019 would possibly mean by 2019 the current population would be against leaving the EU.

 

[northwichcat]

Polls by their very nature will usually give a national snapshot.

They don't reflect local constituency issues and with the first past the post electoral system that is a very important difference - without going through every single constituency individually it's going to be difficult to predict results using opinion polls, especially the closer the parties become.

That's why YouGov's prediction was better. They asked people which party they were voting for, which candidate they are voting for (based on their postcode), how likely they are to vote and how likely they are to change their mind.

 

[Darandio]

And now Tim Farron has resigned.....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40281300

Tim Farron has stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats after the general election.

In a statement, he said he was "torn between living as a faithful Christian and serving as a political leader".

He said he should have dealt "more wisely" with questions relating to his faith during the election campaign, including his views on gay sex.

He insisted he had taken the decision voluntarily and he retained the support of his party.

 

[HSTEd]

Is anything officially being done to close such a loophole that seems to currently exist?

Not that I know of, but then it is not entirely clear how you could prevent this from occuring without some sort of national database of all electors.

Which sounds just 1984-enough for Theresa May....

 

[najaB]

Not that I know of, but then it is not entirely clear how you could prevent this from occuring without some sort of national database of all electors.

It's also far from clear that it happens in large enough numbers to affect the results of most ballots.

 

[Y961 XBU]

And now Tim Farron has resigned.....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40281300

Have to say am gutted, thought he did the job to a high standard and winning 4 MPs showed that, I still see him as the winner of the Leaders Debates so whoever replaces him has big shoes to fill

 

[Howardh]

Have to say am gutted, thought he did the job to a high standard and winning 4 MPs showed that, I still see him as the winner of the Leaders Debates so whoever replaces him has big shoes to fill

On other forums he was treated as a bit of a joke; so we might get a more respected leader in his place. Nothing to stop Clegg returning, you don't have to be MP to lead a party!

May kept banging on about her "faith" - it's time faith and politics were removed from each other if it gets in the way of their duties. They should follow what the voters want, not what their flaming God wants. Rant over.

*Although if God hates Brexit I might change my mind....

 

[northwichcat]

Lib Dem leadership contest expected to be between Vince Cable and Jo Swinson according to Robert Peston.

 

[northwichcat]

On other forums he was treated as a bit of a joke; so we might get a more respected leader in his place. Nothing to stop Clegg returning, you don't have to be MP to lead a party!

May kept banging on about her "faith" - it's time faith and politics were removed from each other if it gets in the way of their duties. They should follow what the voters want, not what their flaming God wants. Rant over.

*Although if God hates Brexit I might change my mind....

Well yes the SNP, Plaid Cymru and UKIP are all known for having leaders who aren't MPs but has any party selected someone as leader who was an MP until they lost their seat? That would be more controversial.

 

[Howardh]

Well yes the SNP, Plaid Cymru and UKIP are all known for having leaders who aren't MPs but has any party selected someone as leader who was an MP until they lost their seat? That would be more controversial.

An example would be if Carswell had stayed with UKIP, lost his seat at the General Election but became the new leader after Nuttall, would that be controversial? Admittedly UKIP wouldn't have any MP's, but even if they did?

I know it's not a leader (!!) but hasn't May employed a former MP who is now high up behind the scenes? if so, strange that the public vote you out...and then you end up in an arguably higher and more important position?

here's a question - could the Tories make Ruth Davidson their leader even though they have the PM?? In a coalition, Lucas, Green Party, could be elevated to deputy PM yet not be the party leader, Clegg was DPM (although, of course, a leader) so minor parties can end up having a member on the top table.

 

[northwichcat]

Being the smaller party in a coalition doesn't guarantee you the deputy PM role. It was a surprise Clegg got it when the Lib Dems had under 60 seats, it'd be even more surprising for an even smaller party to get that position.

 

[Howardh]

Being the smaller party in a coalition doesn't guarantee you the deputy PM role. It was a surprise Clegg got it when the Lib Dems had under 60 seats, it'd be even more surprising for an even smaller party to get that position.

You're not small when you hold the balance of power

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Lib Dem leadership contest expected to be between Vince Cable and Jo Swinson according to Robert Peston.

I thought that Tim Farron was a popular choice as he wasn't 'in bed' with the Tories, he had no baggage. Both Cable and Swinson do.

 

[me123]

Well yes the SNP, Plaid Cymru and UKIP are all known for having leaders who aren't MPs but has any party selected someone as leader who was an MP until they lost their seat? That would be more controversial.

Another difference is that the leaders of three parties you mention have all held seats elsewhere.

The SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon sits in the Scottish Parliament and is the First Minister of Scotland. Alex Salmond previously also led the SNP from Holyrood.
Plaid Cymru's leader Leanne Wood sits in the Welsh Assembly and leads the PC AMs (soon to be MWPs?) from there.
UKIP's leader Nigel Farage led UKIP from within the European Parliament, as did Paul Nuttall and Diane James.

Nick Clegg currently holds no elected office.

Lesser parties obviously have leaders not elected, but that's generally out of necessity. The Greens were in the unusual position that their leader Natalie Bennett didn't hold an elected office despite having Green councillors and and an MP, and in fact are still in that position to some extent with co-leader Jonathan Bartley (although he's in a job share with Caroline Lucas MP). Obviously parties like the Wessex Regionalist Party (randomly selected from a Wikipedia list) have no choice in the matter - they have no elected representatives anywhere!

But it's hard to imagine a party the size of the Lib Dems selecting someone who holds no political office as their leader. They have a reasonable pool of candidates who will probably put their names into the ring. Jo Swinson could be a good asset for them (and I'm not surprised the hear that she's the favourite at the moment).

 

[Tetchytyke]

I thought that Tim Farron was a popular choice as he wasn't 'in bed' with the Tories, he had no baggage. Both Cable and Swinson do.

I don't blame Tim Farron for resigning, to be honest. The criticism he took for his "homophobia" was disgraceful. People should be judged on their actions, and his actions were largely liberal. Whatever his private opinions, he didn't let them get in the way of his public action.

Especially when you consider that Theresa May was campaigning in a "church" that believes in gay exorcism and that she has just promoted to her cabinet a man who is FUNDED by an organisation that believes in gay cure therapy.

I thought Tim was a stable pair of hands for the party after the chaos of the 2015 election.

I have a lot of time for Vince Cable but I think he has too much baggage from his time in office. I'd therefore have to look towards Jo Swinson to lead the party.

 

[AlterEgo]

I don't blame Tim Farron for resigning, to be honest. The criticism he took for his "homophobia" was disgraceful. People should be judged on their actions, and his actions were largely liberal. Whatever his private opinions, he didn't let them get in the way of his public action.

Indeed, people ought to be ashamed of themselves for bringing that up again and again. Like everyone, he's entitled to his opinion, and he never once suggested legislating against gay people.

Unlike a certain other party I can think of.

 

[northwichcat]

You're not small when you hold the balance of power

In 2010 the Conservatives only had two options of getting in power:
1. Work with Lib Dems
2. Work with Labour - not bloody likely!

When it's being discussed if the Greens could get Deputy PM position (which was suggested earlier in the thread), it's unlikely they'll have more seats than other smaller left leaning parties any time soon, so making too many demands might see them lose out on a place in government to another left leaning party, like Plaid Cymru.

 

[berneyarms]

Having the leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the NI Parties sitting in the devolved assemblies is the correct approach - that's where the main decisions affecting their voters will happen.

Why would anyone expect them to sit in Westminster anymore?

While Westminster clearly is important (particularly with regard to Brexit), the bread and butter issues are now dealt with locally (well they would be in NI if the Assembly gets going again), and that's where the leaders' focus needs to be.

 

[northwichcat]

I thought that Tim Farron was a popular choice as he wasn't 'in bed' with the Tories, he had no baggage. Both Cable and Swinson do.

Cable had a senior minister role and was responsible for overseeing the implementation of Tory policies but Swinson only had junior positions in the cabinet which were less toxic.

Farron, Cable and Swinson all came from ordinary backgrounds, unlike Clegg who came from a privileged background.

 

[northwichcat]

Indeed, people ought to be ashamed of themselves for bringing that up again and again. Like everyone, he's entitled to his opinion, and he never once suggested legislating against gay people.

I'd argue the media were biased against both Farron and Corbyn in the run up to the election.

Farron wanted to talk about the single market and the NHS but the media kept bringing up gay sex.

Corbyn wanted to talk about redistribution of wealth and state owned companies but the media kept bringing up Trident.

May wanted the media to talk about Brexit and they did, until she announced a very poorly thought out policy.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Tim Farron is entitled to his religious beliefs and to his opinions on what he considers to be an acceptable way of showing affection between consenting adults. He is also able clearly to distinguish quite well between his personal feelings and his political position despite the apparent cognitive dissonance.

However, his resignation speech had more than a hint of the tone taken by some on the religious right in the USA: that a person's religious sensitivities are more important than another person's rights. A bad move in my opinion.

 

[Tetchytyke]

However, his resignation speech had more than a hint of the tone taken by some on the religious right in the USA: that a person's religious sensitivities are more important than another person's rights. A bad move in my opinion.

It's a very tough one.

Criticising people for what they believe, not what they do, leaves me feeling very uncomfortable. But people should be able to choose their politicians based on their beliefs as much as their actions: whether you think your leader has your back is an important thing.

What I find most frustrating, though, is that Farron has been criticised for his beliefs but this criticism hasn't been extended to others actions. Theresa May voted against both equalising the age of consent for gay and straight people and against abolishing the homophobic section 28. The lack of criticism against her for this has been deafening.

 

[PHILIPE]

Jeremy "Do nothing" Hunt has suddenly come to life and for the good of the NHS for a change. According to BBC Teletext News service, he is going to ask the Chancellor to fund pay increases for NHS staff prompted by their response and efforts following their hard work and dedication in the light of recent tragedies.
The Pay Cap for public service workers is a disgrace whatever the Chancellor says. There is no difference in the cost of things in shops whether it is a fat cat, somebody other than a public service worker and public service workers themselves purchasing..