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General Election 2017: The Results and Aftermath

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AlterEgo

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The SDLP would probably be happy with some seats in the House of Lords.

Surely you mean the DUP here?

It would probably be "Sir" Jeffrey Donaldson who took the peerage, which I'm certain will be offered. It would likely be one seat.

The DUP will likely fail to notice that they're being used by the mainland again and I expect the pact to stick until the next election.
 
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Chester1

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Surely you mean the DUP here?

It would probably be "Sir" Jeffrey Donaldson who took the peerage, which I'm certain will be offered. It would likely be one seat.

The DUP will likely fail to notice that they're being used by the mainland again and I expect the pact to stick until the next election.

No I did mean the SDLP. The nationalists will need some compensation for the UK governing party being allied to the DUP. Sinn Finn won't take seats in Parliament but the SDLP do and have lost their seats in the House of Commons therefore would value some representation in the Lords. I am sure the DUP will get some Lords but that might be later down the line.

There isn't going to be a war.

Glad someone is talking sense. I was talking to a Northern Irish friend last night who was strongly of the opinion that there was no chance of the troubles restarting. Its a question of how things settle and how a compromise is made to appease the nationalists. Dont forget that if powersharing resumes then Sinn Finn will have strong influence over how the invitable Tory bribes are spent.
 

AlterEgo

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No I did mean the SDLP. The nationalists will need some compensation for the UK governing party being allied to the DUP. Sinn Finn won't take seats in Parliament but the SDLP do and have lost their seats in the House of Commons therefore would value some representation in the Lords. I am sure the DUP will get some Lords but that might be later.

Not sure of your logic. The SDLP for some time were the largest nationalist party in NI and only ever gained one Lord. Times have moved on a lot since Gerry Fitt went into the Lords.

The SDLP now have 0 Commons seats and are in terminal decline so to suggest they get representation in the Lords is undemocratic madness (mind you, that's the Lords for you!). None of the SDLP's current crop of politicians are suitable or even, I'd bet, willing to take a seat in the Lords. It would be political suicide in these times.

The idea that "nationalists" would feel appeased by a SDLP politician being offered a Lords seat is some way wide of the mark.

The SDLP will likely not exist in its current form in five years.

Dont forget that if powersharing resumes then Sinn Finn will have strong influence over how the invitable Tory bribes are spent.

That assumes that any promises made are for devolved matters. The DUP aren't stupid.
 
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Busaholic

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No I did mean the SDLP. The nationalists will need some compensation for the UK governing party being allied to the DUP. Sinn Finn won't take seats in Parliament but the SDLP do and have lost their seats in the House of Commons therefore would value some representation in the Lords. I am sure the DUP will get some Lords but that might be later down the line.



Glad someone is talking sense. I was talking to a Northern Irish friend last night who was strongly of the opinion that there was no chance of the troubles restarting. Its a question of how things settle and how a compromise is made to appease the nationalists. Dont forget that if powersharing resumes then Sinn Finn will have strong influence over how the invitable Tory bribes are spent.

Agreed, the troubles won't restart directly because of this jiggery-pokery. What may (I'd say guaranteed to) cause huge ructions is the nature of the 'border' with Eire in a post-Brexit era. The DUP are apparently insistent that neither the Single Market nor Customs Union option be applied, yet there be no physical check of people or traffic/goods at the border, nor any extra security at British ports/airports for anyone arriving from NI. This would seem to be illogical, untenable and most likely illegal.
 

Starmill

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People seem to have given up rather quickly on the re-establishment of Power Sharing in Northern Ireland.

I think it's of clear importance to do everything possible to get a deal on that. If the deadline is missed, it isn't a case of 'there will be war' but there is no denying that risk will increase. It's not outright war we need fear - it's the actions of the paramilitaries that we know still exist. I am not saying that no NI Executive means an end to the fragile peace, I'm saying should be no reason to grant excuses for violence.

Upholding the Northern Ireland peace process is of paramount importance here and I really really hope that both James Brokenshire and Theresa May understand what's at stake.

The DUP are apparently insistent that neither the Single Market nor Customs Union option be applied, yet there be no physical check of people or traffic/goods at the border, nor any extra security at British ports/airports for anyone arriving from NI. This would seem to be illogical, untenable and most likely illegal.

I certainly think there are some serious legal and practical realities on their way to the DUP. I don't quite see how what they have campaigned on is possible.
 
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Starmill

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The SDLP now have 0 Commons seats and are in terminal decline so to suggest they get representation in the Lords is undemocratic madness (mind you, that's the Lords for you!). None of the SDLP's current crop of politicians are suitable or even, I'd bet, willing to take a seat in the Lords. It would be political suicide in these times.

The idea that "nationalists" would feel appeased by a SDLP politician being offered a Lords seat is some way wide of the mark.

The SDLP will likely not exist in its current form in five years.

They still have 12 Northern Ireland Assembly Members and a smattering of Councillors. They're not gone totally. As to how likely it is that they will be gone I have no idea.
 

AlterEgo

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They still have 12 Northern Ireland Assembly Members and a smattering of Councillors. They're not gone totally. As to how likely it is that they will be gone I have no idea.

The SDLP have been on about merging with Fianna Fáil for years, and it'll probably happen (and be a good thing) in the next five.
 

St Rollox

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The most earth shattering event for the SDLP was the Leave vote in the EU Referendum.
They went on about the EU for years.
John Hume's catch phrase was "Europe of the Regions"
Theory was, it didn't matter if you lived in Belfast or Berlin, you were a EU citizen.
British or Irish, so what.
Borders meant nothing.
The EEC becoming the EU was like manna from heaven for the SDLP because in theory it bypassed constitutional politics in NI.
You didn't need to go overboard about a United Ireland because it no longer mattered.
The border was meaningless.
The SDLP even described it as post nationalist.
The SDLP can thank David Cameron and UKIP for it all going under a bus.
 

Tetchytyke

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People seem to have given up rather quickly on the re-establishment of Power Sharing in Northern Ireland.

I think it can and will be re-established...at some point.

The problem is that the DUP and Sinn Fein are at loggerheads over the Cash for Ash scandal. The DUP's leader, who was responsible for the £500m+ loss to taxpayers (much of which has gone to unionist-affiliated companies) won't resign. And if she won't resign then Sinn Fein, as the largest Nationalist party, won't nominate a Deputy. And if Sinn Fein won't nominate a Deputy then there can be no assembly at Stormont.

If Arlene Foster is persuaded to resign, we get the Power Sharing back. If the British Government were neutral peacemakers there could be a compromise which would allow this to happen without the DUP losing face. But Arlene Foster is now the Kingmaker, the British Government are entirely reliant on her and her party. How can a government in that situation act as a neutral peacemaker?

AlterEgo said:
The SDLP have been on about merging with Fianna Fáil for years, and it'll probably happen (and be a good thing) in the next five.

I'm surprised they haven't already. Sinn Fein are the only political party for the whole island, and so are the natural choice for nationalists in the north and in the south. SF have been steadily increasing their vote in the south for quite some time. And in the north they're almost equal with the DUP, which is an achievement given the way the six counties were deliberately gerrymandered. The only thing really holding SF back in the south is the paramilitary link, although as time progresses that link weakens.

If the SDLP and Fianna Fail merge, then you get a more moderate nationalist party, and that can only be a good thing. It might put Fine Gael in their place, for one thing.
 

AlterEgo

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The only thing really holding SF back in the south is the paramilitary link, although as time progresses that link weakens.

Indeed. Many people forget that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael both fell out of the bottom of the original Sinn Fein movement, and were themselves a product of paramilitarism - those vestiges long since forgotten.

McGuinness' death earlier this year will be seen in the future as a pivotal moment in Irish history. Adams' image worked most effectively with McGuinness as a foil - a perfect double act. Adams is a schemer, an academic, a strategist, but a (deliberately) shady figure with an odd family background - an enigma. McGuinness was the street fighter - an ostensibly honest, people person, a straightforward, good Catholic boy who didn't drink and knew everyone in his city. It's kind of like Lennon-McCartney in a way; two sides of talent which tessellated nicely, but one without the other is greatly diminished.

Adams now cuts a more isolated figure as more and more party figures rise through the ranks "clean" of any paramilitary links. He's easy pickings in the Dail. Adams must now be thinking about a succession strategy and this will inevitably involve Mary Lou McDonald as well as a more credible leader in Northern Ireland than Michelle O'Neill, who was chosen hastily and undemocratically following McGuinness' death.

What does that mean for NI? Who knows? But one thing is for sure - SF need a credible moderating influence within nationalism and that's not something the SDLP can provide on their own any more.
 

PHILIPE

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George Osborne can't shut up now he's started. Following his remarks on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday, I've just seen on TV that he's urging the Government to continue with austerity. It's all right for him with all his wealth and jobs.
 

Busaholic

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George Osborne can't shut up now he's started. Following his remarks on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday, I've just seen on TV that he's urging the Government to continue with austerity. It's all right for him with all his wealth and jobs.

It's quite simple - 'if Theresa's for it, I'm agin it'. All quite amusing for us hoi polloi, but Osborne should realise he's just as discredited a figure as May, in fact probably more so in that his arrogance and impetuousness, along with his mate Dave's, helped bring about May's premiership.
 

w0033944

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George Osborne can't shut up now he's started. Following his remarks on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday, I've just seen on TV that he's urging the Government to continue with austerity. It's all right for him with all his wealth and jobs.

I just came here to post about this. For those who are interested, here's the text article from the BBC site:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/40265875

Former chancellor George Osborne has urged the government not to change its economic strategy after being left without a Commons majority.

Mr Osborne's newspaper editorial said a so-called "end to austerity" would lead to a "loss of economic credibility".

Earlier Michael Gove, the new environment secretary, said ministers had to listen to public concern about how services are funded.

The Tories need Democratic Unionist Party support to stay in power.



The DUP is committed to lobbying for extra cash for public services in Northern Ireland and promised in its manifesto to "resist any assault" on universal benefits and to maintain the "triple lock" on pensions which Theresa May planned to scale back before the election.

It also opposes the so-called bedroom tax and wants to abolish air passenger duty and cut VAT for tourism businesses.

The Tories lost their majority after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who based his campaign on ending austerity, defied predictions and gained 30 seats.

Former MP Gavin Barwell, who lost his marginal seat, told Panorama Labour had "tapped into" concerns about the impact of years of public sector pay freezes.

Mr Barwell has since been appointed as Mrs May's chief of staff.


Mr Osborne, who implemented deep spending cuts during his six years in the Treasury, abandoned his bid to restore government finances to a surplus by 2020 shortly before leaving office.

His deficit reduction targets have been relaxed by his successor Philip Hammond.

An editorial in the London Evening Standard, which he edits, said: "Talk of 'an end to austerity' is code for 'we're going to allow the deficit to rise, and we don't care'.

"That would risk repeating the mistakes of the past that led Britain to the point where there was, in the words of that Treasury letter, 'no money left'."

It added: "The government already has enough on its plate. A loss of economic credibility would make those problems a whole lot worse."

Mr Osborne, who was sacked as chancellor by Mrs May when she became PM, has repeatedly criticised Mrs May since the election result.
'Semi-permanence'

Asked on the Today programme whether the government could change course, Mr Gove said ministers had to "reflect on what the election result told us about the way that people want to see the economy managed in the future".

He said there was a need to ensure public spending was kept at a sustainable level but stressed that "we also need to take account of legitimate public concerns about ensuring that we properly fund public services in the future".

Speaking on the BBC's Daily Politics, Tory MP Dominic Grieve said austerity had been a necessity after the 2008 financial crash, but warned against it becoming "a state of semi-permanence".

He said the government should not be "chucking billions of pounds at public services" and said "turning the tap on" on public spending could undermine wealth creation.

But he added: "The question is have the limits of reasonableness been reached with the electorate."
 

berneyarms

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While its very fun to mock the Tories on their current situation, I think people on this site and outside are getting a bit carried away. DUP wont risk putting Corbyn in Downing Street as he is an ally of Sinn Finn and frankly I doubt the nationalist have the stomach to fight another war. The likelihood is they will be bought off. The SDLP would probably be happy with some seats in the House of Lords. Maybe Foster would agree to resign in return for a peerage (a job for life) and a cushy position. The noise comming from Dublin about neutrality in the peace process is much more about figures within the ruling party trying to force their own party to rule out a future deal with Sinn Finn after the next Republic of Ireland election. The Lib Dems won't try to bring down the government anytime soon because hey can squeeze conncessions from them, they will abstain if the vote is too tight. The government is fairly safe with 327 out of 642 (650 members minus the speaker and Sinn Finn). The government should be solid until the next budget which is scheduled for November but could be delayed to as late as March. The Queens speach wont need to be big either because Brexit and HS2 phase 2a will fill a large chunk of parliaments time.

The piece quoted in bold above is complete nonsense and is not a reflection of Irish politics.

Enda Kenny, until this evening the Taoiseach (Prime Minister), (the new Fine Gael leader, Leo Varadkar will be elected Taoiseach tomorrow) certainly did not make that statement with any deal with SF in mind - he was making it quite clear to the UK government in his capacity as co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement that the Irish government expect them to honour their responsibilities as far as being impartial is concerned in the Northern talks.

There isn't a snowball's chance in hell of Fine Gael going into government with Sinn Fein as long as Gerry Adams, and other ex-members of the IRA are still members of the Irish parliament - in fact the two parties have diametrically opposing policies so I wouldn't see them ever going into government together.

Fianna Fáil have also made it clear that going into government with Sinn Féin is not an option.

Until SF have shaken their links with their paramilitary past, and frankly, ditched their extreme socialist agenda for a more mainstream approach, I don't see the Irish electorate giving them a mandate to enter government. That's going to take a while to happen.
 

Domh245

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The YouGov voting breakdown makes for interesting reading. Labour had the largest vote share amongst all employment groups bar the retired, and had a larger vote share among the under 50s.

Employment-01.png

Age-01.png

Age%20predictor-01.png
 

Busaholic

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Regardless of what the Irish/UK governments or NI assembly may wish for, the matter of post-Brexit arrangements for the border will exercise the EU greatly, as they have made abundantly clear. They will make sure that the UK pays dearly for what the EU rightly regards as a stupid and suicidal decision.
 

berneyarms

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Agreed, the troubles won't restart directly because of this jiggery-pokery. What may (I'd say guaranteed to) cause huge ructions is the nature of the 'border' with Eire in a post-Brexit era. The DUP are apparently insistent that neither the Single Market nor Customs Union option be applied, yet there be no physical check of people or traffic/goods at the border, nor any extra security at British ports/airports for anyone arriving from NI. This would seem to be illogical, untenable and most likely illegal.

There will be a deal on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland - you can be sure of that.

The sheer volume of cross-border interaction, along with the reality of some 300 border crossing points, together with the historical nightmare of the Troubles and their effects of the population, mean that a hard border is simply not an acceptable option.

A political fudge will be arrived at, that allows people to continue moving freely between Ireland and NI as they do at present to work, study and use health facilities - the Irish government have just co-funded a major expansion of cancer facilities in a Derry hospital to facilitate Donegal residents.

The notion of everyone being stopped at the border is not going to be acceptable to anyone in Ireland or NI, and all of the parties in NI, Ireland, GB and the EU have recognised this.

We will have to wait and see, but I will bet my home that a compromise deal of sorts that keeps everyone on both sides of the Irish border happy will be reached somehow.
 

berneyarms

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Regardless of what the Irish/UK governments or NI assembly may wish for, the matter of post-Brexit arrangements for the border will exercise the EU greatly, as they have made abundantly clear. They will make sure that the UK pays dearly for what the EU rightly regards as a stupid and suicidal decision.

The EU have repeatedly made it clear that they will not do anything that damages the Good Friday Agreement.

I genuinely don't think people in GB realise how important keeping that border open and unencumbered is to the local economy both north and south of the border.

At the same time, going back to any form of hard border is exactly the kind of political mess that would give rise to hotheads deciding to take matters into their own hands. No one wants that.
 

Busaholic

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There will be a deal on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland - you can be sure of that.

The sheer volume of cross-border interaction, along with the reality of some 300 border crossing points, together with the historical nightmare of the Troubles and their effects of the population, mean that a hard border is simply not an acceptable option.

A political fudge will be arrived at, that allows people to continue moving freely between Ireland and NI as they do at present to work, study and use health facilities - the Irish government have just co-funded a major expansion of cancer facilities in a Derry hospital to facilitate Donegal residents.

The notion of everyone being stopped at the border is not going to be acceptable to anyone in Ireland or NI, and all of the parties in NI, Ireland, GB and the EU have recognised this.

We will have to wait and see, but I will bet my home that a compromise deal of sorts that keeps everyone on both sides of the Irish border happy will be reached somehow.

I sincerely hope you're right.
 

Starmill

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I strongly agree that anything and everything needs to be done to preserve the open border and uphold the Good Friday Agreement. I am just concerned that the cost of that will be very, very high to the UK Government, but still there is no choice. There can be no impediment to crossing the border again.
 

northwichcat

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I just came here to post about this. For those who are interested, here's the text article from the BBC site:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/40265875

George Osborne's handed the sensible comment baton to Cameron and gone back to idiotic comments himself.

BBC News said:
Theresa May will have to "listen to other parties" as she reviews her Brexit strategy in the wake of the election, David Cameron has said.

The Financial Times reported the former PM saying there would be pressure for a "softer" exit from the EU after his party did not win an election majority.

Speaking in Poland, he said his successor should "consult more widely" both inside Parliament and beyond.

It comes as Mrs May tries to seal a deal with the DUP to govern.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40268504
 

northwichcat

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The YouGov voting breakdown makes for interesting reading. Labour had the largest vote share amongst all employment groups bar the retired, and had a larger vote share among the under 50s.

Interesting students and full time workers are the most likely to vote Lib Dem, considering it was suggested not blocking the Conservative's tuition fee plans lost them all the votes. While full time workers would have paid more income tax to fund the NHS under Lib Dem plans and retired people would benefit the most for that.
 

Kite159

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I wonder how many students made use of the loophole in the registration system to have voted twice (registered for a postal vote at their home address and also registered to vote at their student accommodation address to cast a vote in that area)?
 

YorkshireBear

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I wonder how many students made use of the loophole in the registration system to have voted twice (registered for a postal vote at their home address and also registered to vote at their student accommodation address to cast a vote in that area)?

Except its not really possible is it?
 

Domh245

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Except its not really possible is it?

It is feasible. I was registered in two constituencies, and applied for a postal vote in one of them (my uni constituency) and voted with it. I could have also voted in my home constituency in person, had I been in the country, despite the illegality of it, although it would require the two different constituencies to check with each other if I had voted in either and then pass it on to the police. Entirely possible, although perhaps a bit too much effort for most students! :P
 

northwichcat

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It is feasible. I was registered in two constituencies, and applied for a postal vote in one of them (my uni constituency) and voted with it. I could have also voted in my home constituency in person, had I been in the country, despite the illegality of it, although it would require the two different constituencies to check with each other if I had voted in either and then pass it on to the police. Entirely possible, although perhaps a bit too much effort for most students! :P

Doesn't work like that. Once my brother was once registered to the address I was living at and another. He had applied for a postal vote at his other address. When I went to vote at the polling station and the clerk was crossing out my name I noticed my brother's name had a computerised line through it already.

Even if the system failed what student wants to risk a criminal record to give one party an extra vote (both the polling cards and postal vote forms saying about voting twice being a criminal offence)?
 
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HSTEd

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Doesn't work like that. Once my brother was once registered to the address I was living at and another. He had applied for a postal vote at his other address. When I went to vote at the polling station and the clerk was crossing out my name I noticed my brother's name had a computerised line through it already.

Even if the system failed what student wants to risk a criminal record to give one party an extra vote (both the polling cards and postal vote forms saying about voting twice being a criminal offence)?

Yeah.... its extremely unreliable if that is the case.

I normally vote via postal ballot at my home address, and merely vote in council elections at university. (Although I did it the other way around this time).

I have nearly been passed MP ballot papers at the University polling station twice, both in 2010 and in 2015. On both occasions I had to tell the person that I only wished to recieve a council election ballot.

Additionally, requesting a postal voting slip does not render you unable to vote at the other location, using it does.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Yeah.... its extremely unreliable if that is the case.

I normally vote via postal ballot at my home address, and merely vote in council elections at university. (Although I did it the other way around this time).

I have nearly been passed MP ballot papers at the University polling station twice, both in 2010 and in 2015. On both occasions I had to tell the person that I only wished to recieve a council election ballot.

Additionally, requesting a postal voting slip does not render you unable to vote at the other location, using it does.

Is anything officially being done to close such a loophole that seems to currently exist?
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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The YouGov voting breakdown makes for interesting reading. Labour had the largest vote share amongst all employment groups bar the retired, and had a larger vote share among the under 50s.

Employment-01.png

Age-01.png

Age%20predictor-01.png

Despite all that is said above, the actuality of the 2017 General Election result proves such polls, well meaning in their very nature, cannot be said to be infallible.
 
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