Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[kieron]

For anyone who's interested, the consultation (as per the link in the original post) will end on Monday.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Had a chat with a Labour Councillor at Shrewsbury over weekend, not impressed with this consultation process agreed with me it was a bit of a sham. Apparently Conwy CC have formally complained about it. My councillor seemed to think most likely outcome was ATW getting an extension as Transport Wales not up to job.

We also learnt this weekend that WG have specified a Sunday service on the Maesteg branch

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/maesteg-finally-sunday-rail-service-13098423

 

[Cardiff123]

https://www.transportxtra.com/publi...nment-criticised-for-secretive-rail-franchise

I'll just leave this here......

Welsh Government criticised for ‘secretive’ rail franchise.

The Welsh Government is coming under fire for not consulting stakeholders on the next 15-year Wales and Borders franchise specification, which could include radical changes such as the conversion of some lines to light rail operation.

The specification is being developed through “competitive dialogue” with the four bidders. The procurement timetable does not include a period for consultation on the specification. Simon Jones, the Government’s director of transport, told a National Assembly for Wales committee that the specification, in draft or final form, would not be published until after the procurement process had ended.

“I think once the final specification is dealt with and we’ve been able to award a contract, then that finalised specification is something which ministers could consider making public,” he said.

(not the full article as it's a subscription site, but you get the idea)

 

[Gareth Marston]

The Welsh Government seems hell bent on turning what should be a positive for Wales and the Borders into a negative by this so called process. It could turn out all right on the night or not who knows.

The 2003 deal was done behind closed doors and presented as a done deal that couldn't be changed this is going the same way.

 

[Dai Corner]

The Assembly's Economy, infrastructure and Skills Committee considered their draft report on the franchise on 25 May. The rest of the meeting was open to the public but this part of the meeting (and their consideration of evidence in City Deals and regional economies) wasn't.
http://senedd.assembly.wales/ieListDocuments.aspx?CId=446&MId=4204&Ver=4

 

[Cardiff123]

I don't understand what the Welsh Govt have to hide in this process? Ironically, the Senedd in 2006 was built of glass to show 'openess and transparency' at every stage and level of the democratic and governmental process in Wales.

Do WG/TfW have to hide the fact that they don't know what the f**k they are doing? If not, then make the ITT public for consultation! The "competitive dialogue process" will be over by the time the ITT is made.

At least release the plans that are in place to save Wales from bustitution on 1/1/2020. It's only 30 months away which is a matter of weeks in rail industry terms.

 

[Rhydgaled]

https://www.transportxtra.com/publi...nment-criticised-for-secretive-rail-franchise

I'll just leave this here......

Welsh Government criticised for ‘secretive’ rail franchise.

The Welsh Government is coming under fire for not consulting stakeholders on the next 15-year Wales and Borders franchise specification, which could include radical changes such as the conversion of some lines to light rail operation.

The specification is being developed through “competitive dialogue” with the four bidders. The procurement timetable does not include a period for consultation on the specification. Simon Jones, the Government’s director of transport, told a National Assembly for Wales committee that the specification, in draft or final form, would not be published until after the procurement process had ended.

“I think once the final specification is dealt with and we’ve been able to award a contract, then that finalised specification is something which ministers could consider making public,” he said.

(not the full article as it's a subscription site, but you get the idea)

I had assumed the consultation just ended was intended to feed into the process of developing the franchise specifiction, which is why I sent TfW a 12 page suplementary response with the aim of telling them everything their survey questions didn't allow me to. Unfortunately I was trying to complete that in a mad panic late on the deadline day and I didn't manage to say everything I would have liked. Also, some mistakes crept in and weren't caught, for example my document refers to "the Northern Connect service between Leeds and Manchester"; I meant between Leeds and Chester; doh!

I'd write to my AM to ask these questions, but they are a member of the Welsh Govt so I won't get anywhere.

Write to ALL of you AMs. Even in the unlikely event that all are members of the Welsh Government, you might find that at least one of the five will take the issue seriously. For example, I believe that not all Labour AMs are in favour of the second M4 around Newport.

 

[PHILIPE]

In other words, the Welsh Government and Transport for Wales have no idea or expertise as how to go ahead with the process.

 

[Cardiff123]

Write to ALL of you AMs. Even in the unlikely event that all are members of the Welsh Government, you might find that at least one of the five will take the issue seriously. For example, I believe that not all Labour AMs are in favour of the second M4 around Newport.

My constituency AM is a Welsh Govt member, my regional list AMs are from opposition parties, so yes maybe I should try them.

The article I posted goes on to say some local authority members have complained that the recent consultation was more like a marketing exercise than a rail franchise consultation, asking the all important questions about alignment of seats with windows and bicycle and luggage storage space, rather than aspirations for improved services in specific routes.

 

[Rhydgaled]

At least release the plans that are in place to save Wales from bustitution on 1/1/2020. It's only 30 months away which is a matter of weeks in rail industry terms.

Unless a factory is opened that can convert 153s into TSI-PRM compliant 155s in no-time then I think bustitution or a derrogation is inevitable. The best option for ATW's mark 3 sets is probably a derrogation, since nothing comparable is due for release from other TOCs until the mark 4s in 2020 and the window for a mark 5 order for delivery in 2019 is receeding fast if it hasn't already past.

As well as ATW I'm not sure how London Midland and EMT will make their fleets compliant, and Chiltern are probably struggling having withdrawn their class 121 diagram with no additional stock. The only DMUs off-lease by 2020 that are probably compliant are:

• 14x class 156
• 13x class 170 (3-car units)
• 8x class 172 (ex-London Overground units)
• 3x class 170 (2-car units)

A total of 38 units. ATW alone have 74 non-compliant DMUs, plus the three mark 3 sets. EMT have 17 class 153s and LM 11 class 15x DMUs. Clearly, only the class 319 Flex and class 230 can save the 2020 policy.

My reading of the ITT (or something) for the LM franchise contest is that they are prohibited from obtaining DMU cascades, so either LHCS or more-likely class 230s will be needed. Wales needs Pacer and 150 replacements that can go off-lease (or continue to be useful) once the ValleyLines are electrified. The only ValleyLines fleet that could continue to be useful after electrification is a bi-mode one with an outer-suburban interior suitable for lengthy all-stations journies such as Swansea/Cardiff - Cheltenham Spa.

 

[Rhydgaled]

the recent consultation was more like a marketing exercise than a rail franchise consultation, asking the all important questions about alignment of seats with windows and bicycle and luggage storage space, rather than aspirations for improved services in specific routes.

There was one question, number 12 if I've noted it down correctly, that asked for ideas for new services and issues with the current timetable.

 

[PHILIPE]

Unless a factory is opened that can convert 153s into TSI-PRM compliant 155s in no-time then I think bustitution or a derrogation is inevitable. The best option for ATW's mark 3 sets is probably a derrogation, since nothing comparable is due for release from other TOCs until the mark 4s in 2020 and the window for a mark 5 order for delivery in 2019 is receeding fast if it hasn't already past.

As well as ATW I'm not sure how London Midland and EMT will make their fleets compliant, and Chiltern are probably struggling having withdrawn their class 121 diagram with no additional stock. The only DMUs off-lease by 2020 that are probably compliant are:

• 14x class 156
• 13x class 170 (3-car units)
• 8x class 172 (ex-London Overground units)
• 3x class 170 (2-car units)

A total of 38 units. ATW alone have 74 non-compliant DMUs, plus the three mark 3 sets. EMT have 17 class 153s and LM 11 class 15x DMUs. Clearly, only the class 319 Flex and class 230 can save the 2020 policy.

My reading of the ITT (or something) for the LM franchise contest is that they are prohibited from obtaining DMU cascades, so either LHCS or more-likely class 230s will be needed. Wales needs Pacer and 150 replacements that can go off-lease (or continue to be useful) once the ValleyLines are electrified. The only ValleyLines fleet that could continue to be useful after electrification is a bi-mode one with an outer-suburban interior suitable for lengthy all-stations journies such as Swansea/Cardiff - Cheltenham Spa.

GWR have 19 x 150/2s and all but 4 have now had their their PRM Mods, ATW have 36 and none have yet had their mods.

 

[Cardiff123]

IMO the most obvious options for Wales post 2020 are:

Modified 150/2s, plus
455 DEMUs
319 Flex
D-Train 230s

All of which need a commitment however, which as the Welsh Govt is not specfying anything, won't be decided on until the franchise is awarded next year and it's way too late.

 

[Gareth Marston]

GWR have 19 x 150/2s and all but 4 have now had their their PRM Mods, ATW have 36 and none have yet had their mods.

rode a PRM modified Northern Rail 150 between Piccadilly and Chester via Northwich yesterday, still only 2 car, hopper windows all open and still the same noisy mid 1980's sprinter experience, still had 2 + 3 seating and 90 minutes was overly long including the ridiculous 35 minutes between Piccadilly and Altringham.The stations on the Mid Cheshire were quite run down and forlorn.

Of course Disabled people suffer from these issues as well as the able bodied.

Access for All- but what are the "all" accessing?

 

[Parallel]

I think in a lot of cases, the TOCs see it as less about offering a service for disabled passengers, and more just doing the bare minimum so they can tick the boxes and run the units after 2020 - basically done on the cheap. And who can blame them? The TOCs and ROSCOs want maximum return with minimum investment.

 

[Rhydgaled]

IMO the most obvious options for Wales post 2020 are:

Modified 150/2s, plus
455 DEMUs
319 Flex
D-Train 230s

All of which need a commitment however, which as the Welsh Govt is not specfying anything, won't be decided on until the franchise is awarded next year and it's way too late.

How long would it take from contract signed to being able to put 20 or so bi-mode units (319 or 455 or whatever) into service? If the winning bidder signs on the dotted line in Feb. 2018, the ROSCO will have 8 months work on the trains before the franchise even starts, with about a year from then until the fleet needs to be ready. I really want to see modified 150s and 230s ruled out as options because they are diesel only and unsuitable for the rest of Wales once the ValleyLines are electrified (except in very small numbers, unless they build an extensive high-frequency diesel metro for Swansea).

 

[Cardiff123]

I agree diesel only trains are not the way forward, esp. 150s or D-trains. Converted 455s or 319s are the obvious solutions, esp. for the Valleys, Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff local routes network.

But until the Welsh Govt specifies whether it will be pure EMUs, bi-modes, trams, battery trams, hydrogen trains etc on the 'Metro', no decisions can be made.
Of course regrarding the rest of Wales decisions on future rolling stock could be made now.

 

[northwichcat]

I agree diesel only trains are not the way forward, esp. 150s or D-trains. Converted 455s or 319s are the obvious solutions, esp. for the Valleys, Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff local routes network.

But until the Welsh Govt specifies whether it will be pure EMUs, bi-modes, trams, battery trams, hydrogen trains etc on the 'Metro', no decisions can be made.
Of course regrarding the rest of Wales decisions on future rolling stock could be made now.

'Rest of Wales' (which I presume includes the services operated in England) will likely depend on whether 150s are released from Valley Lines or not. 153s can be replaced by 150s if they are but if they aren't then something else will be required to replace 153s. If it's 'something else' then it will also depend what EMT are going to replace their 153s e.g. EMT might snap up all the available 156s.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I agree diesel only trains are not the way forward, esp. 150s or D-trains. Converted 455s or 319s are the obvious solutions, esp. for the Valleys, Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff local routes network.

But until the Welsh Govt specifies whether it will be pure EMUs, bi-modes, trams, battery trams, hydrogen trains etc on the 'Metro', no decisions can be made.
Of course regrarding the rest of Wales decisions on future rolling stock could be made now.

Assuming the wires from Paddington to Swansea do actually happen, bi-modes are an obvious choice for Cardiff - Hereford and Swansea - Cheltenham Spa, but they need an outer-suburban interior (decent legroom and window alignment) which might be difficult assuming the bodyshells on the 319s and 455s are the same as 150s, with quite big areas around the doors with no windows. Otherwise the best option for those two routes is probably Turbostars.

'Rest of Wales' (which I presume includes the services operated in England) will likely depend on whether 150s are released from Valley Lines or not. 153s can be replaced by 150s if they are but if they aren't then something else will be required to replace 153s. If it's 'something else' then it will also depend what EMT are going to replace their 153s e.g. EMT might snap up all the available 156s.

Please no 150s in the rest of Wales, they are horrible for long journies. Even my grandmother (who is a lot shorter than I am) once complained when we were on the Gloucester to Fishguard service together (not enough legroom for her to sit how she wanted to sit).

 

[tomuk]

Why are people obsessed with bimodes. They are a compromise.

If they are running on diesel most of the time. The weight and complication of the electrical equipment is a waste.

If they are running on electric most of the time. The weight and complication of the fuel and engine is a waste.

Wales needs EMUs for the Valleys, if electrification goes ahead, and extra DMUs for the rest of Wales (England).

 

[Rhydgaled]

Why are people obsessed with bimodes. They are a compromise.

If they are running on diesel most of the time. The weight and complication of the electrical equipment is a waste.

If they are running on electric most of the time. The weight and complication of the fuel and engine is a waste.

They are a compromise yes, and I've been very critical about IEP for the reasons you suggest (particularly the class 801s, which have the weight and complication of a diesel engine and fuel but will never use that diesel engine in normal passenger operation). For London to Worcester services, a planned split of roughly 50:50 diesel/electric over a considerable total distance I reluctantly conceed that the compromise probably makes sense. The shorter off-wire stretches of the GW IC network (Swindon-Cheltenham for example) just look like poor planning, electrification should have started years ago so that they got around to sections like that by the time the last IC125s needed withdrawal. Newbury to Paddington on the other hand is such a small proportion of the route to Penzance that IC125s should be been retained in my view.

In general though if a market justifies 125mph intercity trains and associated infrustructure, then it ought to be electrified. Where diesel comes in useful is long-distance regional express services that cross between main lines, some of which may be electrified. Think Cardiff-Portsmouth (once electrification reaches Bristol), there's clearly scope to reduce greenhouse gas and harmful particulate emmisions by only firing up the diesel engine for the annoying little links that aren't important enough to have been electrified.

Wales needs EMUs for the Valleys, if electrification goes ahead, and extra DMUs for the rest of Wales (England).

It isn't that simple, although that might be ideal the TSI-PRM deadline in 2020 is a huge spanner in the works. Unless somebody can wave a magic wand and deliver electrification and EMUs by 2020 we need diesel trains for the ValleyLines until about 2023 when the wires are up. If said diesel trains are DMUs then a lot of them will need to leave the franchise at that point, as inner-suburban commuter trains are not suitable on many of the other routes (depending on how you develop (or not) certain services the inner-suburban diesel requirement could be as small as zero units). Bi-mode means a long lease can be taken out up-front, they can start operating the ValleyLines as diesel Pacer replacements and remain useful once the wires are up.

With the Cardiff metro, there is potential for hourly Cardiff-Hereford, Swansea-Cheltenham and Cardiff-Chepstow services which will still need diesel traction. Using the bi-modes (released by EMUs on the ValleyLines when the wires are up) saves roughly 23 miles of running diesels under the wires from Severn Tunnel Junction; 69 miles to Swansea if electrification has got that far by 2023. Even then, the proposed Swansea-Bristol service might still include a diesel leg in 2023 depending on how long the delay to Bristol electrification turns out to be.

Also, there is not enough time to build any more new DMUs by 2020 and there isn't enough compliant stock to go around everyone who needs to replace DMUs by 2020 unless we add diesel engines to EMUs or Northern's off-lease 153s can become compliant 155s in time.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Why are people obsessed with bimodes. They are a compromise.

If they are running on diesel most of the time. The weight and complication of the electrical equipment is a waste.

If they are running on electric most of the time. The weight and complication of the fuel and engine is a waste.

Wales needs EMUs for the Valleys, if electrification goes ahead, and extra DMUs for the rest of Wales (England).

The SWML and the commuter lines in SE Wales should all have been wired decades ago agree lets stoping pi@@£nag about and catch up.

 

[tomuk]

It's 31 months until the PRM-TSI deadline so we have options of 1) Refurb 2) New Stock 3) Conversions

Refurb

142s - Scrap
143s - Scrap
150/2s - If 3/4 done at a time might be ready for 2020 - Have corrosion
repairs been done already?
153s - Reforming as 155s doesn't appear to be on the horizon. Lock out the
toilets - What else needs to be done?
158s - Bit of finessing require at Mach or Crewe
175s - OK
67s & Mk3s - Swap for some sliding door HSTs?

New Bi-Modes

Hitachi - IEPs Too expensive even for N Wales/ S Wales route - Probably at capacity with existing orders.

Bombardier - No bimode (or DMU) currently available for UK

Siemens - No bimode (or DMU) currently available for UK

CAF - No bimode currently available for UK

Stadler - Flirt Bi-mode for Greater Anglia - Due for 2019/2020 intro - Stadler have never built anything for UK market so hopefully intro goes smoothly.

CRRC (China) - ?

Mitsui (Japan not Hitachi) - ?


New DMUs

Bombardier, Hitachi, Siemens - No DMU currently available for UK

CAF - Follow on orders for 195s? (New to UK)

Stadler - Follow on orders for FLIRTs (New to UK)

Others - ?

New EMUs

Need electrification first

Conversions
Vivarail 230s - Where to start? - Donor stock is not exactly modern
(Interior/Airon) - Conversion is comedy engineering (read
fire report) - 30 months to make 30 units, it's taken 4 years
to make a very badly engineered prototype
Flex 319 - No prototype yet but Brush Wabtec should be ok - 4 car only - Just a four car 150
Flex 455s - Just a four car 150 - Could be three car - 3rd Rail/Diesel only - Not available until First/MTR replace them

Conclusion

Complete mess - 158s and 75% 150/2s get PRMd by deadline - Everything else runs on derogations - maybe a few 319s - 2023 a batch of CAF DMUs to replace Pacers/concentrate 150/2s in Valleys - 2026 a few trams to cardiff bay.:roll:

 

[Bletchleyite]

Please no 150s in the rest of Wales, they are horrible for long journies. Even my grandmother (who is a lot shorter than I am) once complained when we were on the Gloucester to Fishguard service together (not enough legroom for her to sit how she wanted to sit).

That could be solved easily enough by taking a row out in each section and re-spacing.

 

[Cardiff123]

It's 31 months until the PRM-TSI deadline so we have options of 1) Refurb 2) New Stock 3) Conversions

Refurb

142s - Scrap
143s - Scrap
150/2s - If 3/4 done at a time might be ready for 2020 - Have corrosion
repairs been done already?
153s - Reforming as 155s doesn't appear to be on the horizon. Lock out the
toilets - What else needs to be done?
158s - Bit of finessing require at Mach or Crewe
175s - OK

Conclusion

Complete mess - 158s and 75% 150/2s get PRMd by deadline - Everything else runs on derogations - maybe a few 319s - 2023 a batch of CAF DMUs to replace Pacers/concentrate 150/2s in Valleys - 2026 a few trams to cardiff bay.:roll:

Wales / ATW doesn't have enough trains to allow up to 4 x 150/2s to be away for work at a time. If 150/2s stay beyond 2020, the most likely scenario is lock toilets out of use and allow derogations for everything else, then the new operator of the franchise can gradually take them out of service for modification work if 150/2s are staying on in Wales long term beyond 2022 ish.

The other option is cascading Northern and GWR Pacers to Wales as they're released end of 2018/early 2019 to allow 150/2s to go away for work in bulk throughout 2019, but that option is not very appealing.

And of course this is ignoring the fact that Wales desperately needs extra trains on top of what it's already got for added capacity on all routes.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Please no 150s in the rest of Wales, they are horrible for long journies. Even my grandmother (who is a lot shorter than I am) once complained when we were on the Gloucester to Fishguard service together (not enough legroom for her to sit how she wanted to sit).

That could be solved easily enough by taking a row out in each section and re-spacing.

If you align the remaining seats with the windows that could make them 'outer-suburban' rather than 'inner-suburban' and increase the number of routes they could run on but once you put an accessible toilet in too they won't have an awful lot of seats left. Also some of the routes you would open up are the Cardiff-Cheltenham/Hereford workings which will spend a fair bit of time under the wires and hence where any bi-modes would go.

67s & Mk3s - Swap for some sliding door HSTs?

Didn't think of that; or do the sliding door mods on the ATW mark 3s, but it seems a bit silly to have to throw money at such old vehicles when cascaded mark 4s are just around the corner (although replacing them on the ECML is silly in itself).

New DMUs

Bombardier, Hitachi, Siemens - No DMU currently available for UK

CAF - Follow on orders for 195s? (New to UK)

Stadler - Follow on orders for FLIRTs (New to UK)

Others - ?

The only follow-on order of anything that looks like it stands any chance of arriving by 2020 is mark 5 coaches, and even that is dubious if the same factory will be building the new TPE CAF EMUs as well. A new entrant to the UK market? Maybe, but unlikely I guess.

Vivarail 230s - Where to start? - Donor stock is not exactly modern
(Interior/Airon) - Conversion is comedy engineering (read
fire report) - 30 months to make 30 units, it's taken 4 years
to make a very badly engineered prototype same problem as 150s, cannot make use of OHLE and only suitable for inner-suburban work (but worse because the windows are smaller you can't even take seats out to make them outer-suburban, and don't they have a 60mph top speed vice 75mph?)
Flex 319 - No prototype yet but Brush Wabtec should be ok - 4 car only - Just a four car 150biggest problems are whether they can keep time and run all day without wires, and if 4-car is too much for Swanline/Cardiff-Cheltenham when they end up there
Flex 455s - Just a four car 150 - Could be three car - 3rd Rail/Diesel only - Not available until First/MTR replace themtempting as they have unit-end-gangways so could run 3-car units in pairs, but do the good-looking ones (455/9???) have a pantograph well?

Added some notes in red

ConclusionComplete mess - 158s and 75% 150/2s get PRMd by deadline - Everything else runs on derogations - maybe a few 319s - 2023 a batch of CAF DMUs to replace Pacers/concentrate 150/2s in Valleys - 2026 a few trams to cardiff bay.:roll:

How fast can 319s be flexed (and given some legroom to make them outer-suburban if their current interiors are anything like the 150s)? Use them to replace the pacers and get 33-50% of the 150s refurbished to outer-suburban PRM spec (using the ex-LO 172s on a short lease to free up 150s if they can fit toilets fast enough). The problem is 153s, mark 3s and the rest of the 150s.

No 195s please, unless they have a variant with UEGs (Unit End Gangways) or another TOC takes all the Turbostars that are coming off-lease there's plenty of outer-suburban stock around already.

 

[Parallel]

Wales / ATW doesn't have enough trains to allow up to 4 x 150/2s to be away for work at a time. If 150/2s stay beyond 2020, the most likely scenario is lock toilets out of use and allow derogations for everything else, then the new operator of the franchise can gradually take them out of service for modification work if 150/2s are staying on in Wales long term beyond 2022 ish.

The other option is cascading Northern and GWR Pacers to Wales as they're released end of 2018/early 2019 to allow 150/2s to go away for work in bulk throughout 2019, but that option is not very appealing.

And of course this is ignoring the fact that Wales desperately needs extra trains on top of what it's already got for added capacity on all routes.

I don't think locking the toilet doors on the 150s is really an option. It'd be OK for those that spend their day on the valleys (would probably also help reduce fare evasion!), but 150s also make it on the HOWL, to Pembroke Dock, Fishguard Harbour, Hereford and also occasionally cover on Milford Haven - Manchester Piccadilly, Cardiff Central - Holyhead routes amongst others.

With it being unlikely that the 455s will be released and ready to work in South Wales by the 2020 deadline, I agree with you that one option is literally to take on whichever Pacers are freed up in 2018 and 2019. I understand 143s and 144s are similar, but what is the difference between them (the 2-car sets anyway)? Would every member of staff require training to operate them?

The other option is to take on the 143s and 144s permanently and have them refurbished. GWR will release 8 and Northern will release 23 - Which would make 72 carriages replacing 30 carriages (the 142s) which is not bad, and they're already cleared to run the routes. These would then run until the valley lines are electrified.

Out of both options I think the 455s would be best for South Wales, but if refurbishing Pacers would be considerably cheaper then I'm for that. Both are effectively stop gaps until the wires go up.

 

[northwichcat]

Regarding Turbostars Northern are required to secure more DMUs which are 170s or equivalents post 2020, so it might be the case if another franchise takes on freed up 170s then more 195s will be procured for Northern.

 

[Rhydgaled]

one option is literally to take on whichever Pacers are freed up in 2018 and 2019. I understand 143s and 144s are similar, but what is the difference between them (the 2-car sets anyway)? Would every member of staff require training to operate them?

The other option is to take on the 143s and 144s permanently and have them refurbished. GWR will release 8 and Northern will release 23 - Which would make 72 carriages replacing 30 carriages (the 142s) which is not bad, and they're already cleared to run the routes. These would then run until the valley lines are electrified.

Out of both options I think the 455s would be best for South Wales, but if refurbishing Pacers would be considerably cheaper then I'm for that. Both are effectively stop gaps until the wires go up.

As I posted above, I'm not sure if the 455s have a pantograph well. The 319s do and are coming off-lease already. Either 319s or 455s would be bi-mode for the Cardiff+Newport metro so would not be a stop-gap, as they could continue to be useful when the wires are up.

The 'Pacers as a stop-gap' is a nice 'outside the box' kind of idea but I'm not sure a diesel stop-gap is a workable option in practice. The TSI-PRM modifications are probably more involved for a Pacer than a 150, and Porterbrook has said the following about a PRM programme for the ATW 150s:

the conversion is only financially viable if the trains go on lease for a time that is sufficient to recoup the circa £10m investment from incremental lease rentals beyond the PRM - TSI compliant date of 1 January 2020

That's from here. Pacer mods would probably be more expensive.

Can't work out from the numbers I have how long the lease would need to be to recoup the investment, but I'm guessing four years (2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023) won't be long enough for Porterbrook. Electrification should be complete by then, so a lease any longer than that for diesel-only trains for the ValleyLines isn't a good idea.

Regarding Turbostars Northern are required to secure more DMUs which are 170s or equivalents post 2020, so it might be the case if another franchise takes on freed up 170s then more 195s will be procured for Northern.

Post-2020 there will be 185s coming off-lease as well (these actually start to become free in November 2019 but I've not included them in my figures because it isn't clear how many of the 22 sets will be available before the PRM deadline).

 

[Chester1]

The other option is cascading Northern and GWR Pacers to Wales as they're released end of 2018/early 2019 to allow 150/2s to go away for work in bulk throughout 2019, but that option is not very appealing.

And of course this is ignoring the fact that Wales desperately needs extra trains on top of what it's already got for added capacity on all routes.

It may not be appealing but it looks like it will be the only option left. If the flex project works Northern could order more than the intial 8 and even if they don't converting sufficient 319s to allow a large number of 150s to be upgraded would be a challenge. According to Rail issue 822, by 6th January 2018 Northern will have released 13 2 car 144s and 33 142s. Porterbrooks website states that 5 GWR 143s will go off lease on 31/12/2018. Collectively there will be enough pacers to release all 150s for a year. There will are some routes that Pacers can't run but not enough to prevent every 150 being upgraded by 31/12/2019.