Macron wins the French Election (edited)

[Barn]

Macron wins.
No Frexit.
So much for the 'doomed' EU.

Macron and the EU need to be slightly careful not to over-celebrate this. The fact that the people of France (rightly) decided to reject Le Pen should not be seen as a massive vote of confidence in the EU. Many people would have voted Macron simply because the alternative is so poisonous.

If I had to choose between Nigel Farage or Nick Clegg as prime minister, I'd choose Nick Clegg, but his enthusiasm for the EU would not be the reason why.

The numbers who did vote for Le Pen and the numbers who abstained should be very worrying.

 

[EM2]

The fact that the people of France (rightly) decided to reject Le Pen should not be seen as a massive vote of confidence in the EU.

And what about the Dutch, and the Austrians? They all voted in the pro-EU candidate too.

 

[Barn]

And what about the Dutch, and the Austrians? They all voted in the pro-EU candidate too.

Similar story in Austria. The nationalist candidate in Austria polled 46.2% of the vote. Like Le Pen, he represented a fairly nasty party. For him to get that level of support is very worrying. As with France, it's not about who won, it's about how well the opponent did.

Either Austria has a huge number of far-right fascists in it, or people are so unhappy with the current European structures that they are willing to vote for nasty people to show that dissatisfaction.

Clearly there should be absolutely no pandering to any sort of fascist / racist views. But if the EU looks at the winner only and ignores the groundswell of support for nationalist parties, it is not learning the lessons of these elections. They could merely be postponing the problem until next time.

In the Netherlands, the far-right party gained five seats and was the second-largest party but happily was dwarfed overall by moderate parties.

 

[jbg]

And what about the Dutch, and the Austrians? They all voted in the pro-EU candidate too.

No, they voted against an anti-EU candidate, different thing.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Maybe you should have a go at understanding what "Fascism" is:

https://www.marxists.org/history/etol/writers/guerin/1938/10/fascism.htm

Excessive Centralization

Dispersal of the Working Class

Etc etc, excellent descriptions of the EU.

I'm afraid AlterEgo is broadly correct. The EU is absolutely not fascist - to claim that it is really must be the ultimate in silly conspiracy theories . Try Wikipedia's (arguably more balanced) description of fascism:

Fascism /ˈfæʃɪzəm/ is a form of radical authoritarian nationalism,[1][2] characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and control of industry and commerce,[3] that came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.

• Nationalism? Clearly not, that is the very opposite of what the EU is about. (Nationalism is more like: Let's leave the EU so we can control our own destiny without people from other countries deciding things!)
• Dictatorial power? Nope. The various bodies that make up the EU are formed either by direct elections or by freely elected Governments sending representatives.
• Forcible suppression of the opposition? Nope. That's what happens in places like Saudi Arabia, China, and North Korea. Generally, the EU has a free press, freedom of speech and association etc. (although there are perhaps a few question marks in Poland).
• Control of industry and commerce? Well not really. The EU is based on the principle of free markets. Indeed one of the main complaints levied from the left is that it's too pro-business. It's definitely NOT about the Government controlling industry.

Reading on:

Fascists believe that liberal democracy is obsolete, and they regard the complete mobilization of society under a totalitarian one-party state as necessary to prepare a nation for armed conflict and to respond effectively to economic difficulties.

Far from believing that liberal democracy is obsolete, the EU insists that countries must be (broadly) liberal democracies in order to join it. In other words, the EU promotes exactly the very thing that fascism is, in general, opposed to. And would you care to name any countries in the EU that are 'totalitarian one party states'?

There are many criticisms you can legitimately make against the EU, but the idea that the EU is somehow fascist really is beyond ridiculous.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'm slightly curious that Marine Le Pen is reported as having got around 10% of votes cast abroad. Granted there will always be a few people with odd combinations of views or who will vote for candidates such as her purely in order to protest against 'the establishment' without particularly agreeing with her. But 10% is quite a lot, and I would have imagined wanting to go and live abroad would, in most cases, imply not holding the kind of nationalistic, anti-immigrant, views that Le Pen holds. Voting for her and living abroad don't seem to sit well together.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I'm slightly curious that Marine Le Pen is reported as having got around 10% of votes cast abroad. Granted there will always be a few people with odd combinations of views or who will vote for candidates such as her purely in order to protest against 'the establishment' without particularly agreeing with her. But 10% is quite a lot, and I would have imagined wanting to go and live abroad would, in most cases, imply not holding the kind of nationalistic, anti-immigrant, views that Le Pen holds. Voting for her and living abroad don't seem to sit well together.

Isn't it the same as the Brits living abroad who voted for Brexit?

 

[AlterEgo]

Maybe you should have a go at understanding what "Fascism" is:

https://www.marxists.org/history/etol/writers/guerin/1938/10/fascism.htm

Excessive Centralization

Dispersal of the Working Class

Etc etc, excellent descriptions of the EU.

Maybe you should try using a more middle of the road source than "Marxists.org" (!!) to define political terms.

 

[Abpj17]

Yes, 65% for Macron, 34% for Le Pen. It's only the English speaking western world that's losing it's mind and is upside down and on fire.

I'm not sure France didn't loose its mind. But the electoral system naturally lead to a different outcome. And a much healthier system of multiple candidates and for new parties to get traction. (And the deep unpopularity of the socialists and the fillon scandal etc.)

DynamicSpirit - that was always one of the oddities of the National Front. Immigrants vote for them - it's really quite surreal. And you need to recall that there is a huge amount of youth unemployment in France. Some are forced overseas for jobs, so despite living overseas they may harbour resentment that they struggled to settle in France.

Apparently Macron's wife is 24 years older than him and his former teacher. I imagine if the relationship was the other way around (the man being the teacher 24 years older) the media would have made a huge fuss about it.

No, they wouldn't. It's been acceptable for years for French politicans to have young wives and mistresses. The UK press would have been a different matter.

 

[yorkie]

I see, a Woman with a Jewish partner is a fascist?

As opposed to the candidate that wants unelected EU autocrats to continue to run his Country.

It's pretty clear from this post (both paragraphs) that you are unaware of what fascism actually means!

Edit: I've realised you have re-registered yet another account. You need to stop doing this. Your unique posting style means we will always detect your duplicate accounts. I have merged this latest account into your most recent account.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Having followed this election fairly closely and listening to quite a lot of French political commentators being interviewed on TV, radio and in the press (French and UK), I think a lot of people here in the UK appear to have a skewed impression of the electoral events and about Macron.

The descriptions of being a "centrist" and "left of centre" are a little tenuous.
Although Macron has a foot towards the left of left of centre on some aspects of social policy, his main economic stance is very much right of centre.
He is a market liberalist, intends to make very large cuts in the state with plans to scrap 120,000 public sector jobs, make huge cuts in public spending and on public services (austerity), wants to reform the expensive and complex pension system (=cuts) and introduce more of the free market into the system (all long overdue for France).
Jezzer, McDonnell and co. he is not.


The results and polls make interesting reading and could be interpreted in various ways.
The lowest turnout in a presidential election for 40 years.
Abstentions (not voting - this time by many in protest) and spoilt ballot papers accounted for about a third of the electorate !!!!
The highest recorded number of spoilt ballots.
Le Pen had very little support from the older generations, particularly those over 60 years old (support estimated at less than 10% of that age group).
Estimates that 44 to 46% of 18-25 year olds voted for Le Pen.

One repeated theme by a number of French commentators was that in the two stage election process, usually in the first round, people vote for who they support and want to win; but in the second round, they vote against who they don't want to win.
Estimates are that 40 to 45% of the vote for Macron was a vote to keep Le Pen out and not particularly in favour of Macron.

The EU is not entirely out of the woods, with regard to the French though, as Le Pen's FN do not represent the full body of Euro scepticism.
An increasing body of socialists, including the socialist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon are very anti-EU.

Macron's party (or rather movement - as it now has to transform itself into a party) En Marche! has to start from scratch as it has no MP's as yet.
The elections in a few weeks time will be equally intriguing when they are again pitched against the established parties.
If he can't obtain sufficient support in parliament, or form useful alliances, governing may prove troublesome, especially as the unions and left will be fighting him on many of his plans.

 

[sk688]

Reminds me of a slightly poorer version of the US election, neither candidate in touch with reality, although I would imagine Le Pen does mix with the lower classes slightly more often

True , a significant proportion of her voting base was apparently working class

 

[BananaRepublic]

True , a significant proportion of her voting base was apparently working class

They have support right across the class spectrum, but yes, a large proportion of working class and a large proportion of young people.


.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Having followed this election fairly closely and listening to quite a lot of French political commentators being interviewed on TV, radio and in the press (French and UK), I think a lot of people here in the UK appear to have a skewed impression of the electoral events and about Macron.

The descriptions of being a "centrist" and "left of centre" are a little tenuous.
Although Macron has a foot towards the left of left of centre on some aspects of social policy, his main economic stance is very much right of centre.
He is a market liberalist, intends to make very large cuts in the state with plans to scrap 120,000 public sector jobs, make huge cuts in public spending and on public services (austerity), wants to reform the expensive and complex pension system (=cuts) and introduce more of the free market into the system (all long overdue for France).
Jezzer, McDonnell and co. he is not.


The results and polls make interesting reading and could be interpreted in various ways.
The lowest turnout in a presidential election for 40 years.
Abstentions (not voting - this time by many in protest) and spoilt ballot papers accounted for about a third of the electorate !!!!
The highest recorded number of spoilt ballots.
Le Pen had very little support from the older generations, particularly those over 60 years old (support estimated at less than 10% of that age group).
Estimates that 44 to 46% of 18-25 year olds voted for Le Pen.

One repeated theme by a number of French commentators was that in the two stage election process, usually in the first round, people vote for who they support and want to win; but in the second round, they vote against who they don't want to win.
Estimates are that 40 to 45% of the vote for Macron was a vote to keep Le Pen out and not particularly in favour of Macron.

The EU is not entirely out of the woods, with regard to the French though, as Le Pen's FN do not represent the full body of Euro scepticism.
An increasing body of socialists, including the socialist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon are very anti-EU.

Macron's party (or rather movement - as it now has to transform itself into a party) En Marche! has to start from scratch as it has no MP's as yet.
The elections in a few weeks time will be equally intriguing when they are again pitched against the established parties.
If he can't obtain sufficient support in parliament, or form useful alliances, governing may prove troublesome, especially as the unions and left will be fighting him on many of his plans.

Thanks, that's interesting to hear. Personally, although I see myself as quite left-wing, I would say I do largely tend to support what I've heard of Macron's plans for economic reform. My understanding (please correct me if I'm wrong) is that France does have a fairly bloated and bureaucratic state that is not helping businesses, and which is therefore arguably in need of the kind of reform that would probably not be appropriate in the UK, where we don't suffer from the same problems. It would be nice though if he could reform the state without making public sector workers redundant, but I guess that's a lot harder to do

I do find it very worrying that support for Le Pen is so much higher amongst young people - that's potentially a bad portent for the future. I do hope Macron is able to sufficiently address young peoples' concerns that more of them see the benefits of a more open economy, and a less nationalistic outlook.

 

[BananaRepublic]

There were protests and a small amount of rioting from far left and anarchists on Sunday evening in Paris. Riot police and tear gas etc, etc.
Monday the first protest marches took place....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/v...fter-macron-is-elected-french-president-video

Hundreds of protesters gathered in the French capital on Monday to demonstrate against Emmanuel Macron, the independent centrist who has been elected president. Some protesters scuffled with riot police and several arrests were made

 

[yorkie]

There were protests and a small amount of rioting from far left and anarchists on Sunday evening in Paris. Riot police and tear gas etc, etc.
Monday the first protest marches took place....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/v...fter-macron-is-elected-french-president-video

Anarchists don't like our way of life and don't like democracy. They were going to act this way regardless of who won. They don't know how to behave. If they had their way, there would be no civilised society.

 

[KN1]

Macron is already on borrowed time, the French unions who do exactly as they wish have already said they won't stand for any modernisation.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Anarchists don't like our way of life and don't like democracy. They were going to act this way regardless of who won. They don't know how to behave. If they had their way, there would be no civilised society.

Monday's protest march was mostly by organised unions though.

There is serious trouble ahead for France.
Macron has no parliamentary backing, as yet.
Despite his large majority vote in the second round, most French voters disagree with his policies. Many voting for him did so to prevent his opponent La Pen winning.
In the first round he polled less than a quarter of the vote.
In the second round, Le Penn received a third of the votes cast, but ended up in third place to abstentions and spoiled votes.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170508/eight-reasons-why-emmanuel-macron-shouldnt-be-celebrating-his-win

It doesn't look like a bed of roses.

 

[Tetchytyke]

There is serious trouble ahead for France.

In the first round he polled less than a quarter of the vote.
In the second round, Le Penn received a third of the votes cast, but ended up in third place to abstentions and spoiled votes.

It doesn't look like a bed of roses.

Hmm. It's interesting how the right-leaning media try and spin these things, isn't it.

In France, 56% of people didn't vote for Macron, and this is a bad thing that's going to spell doom and gloom and more doom.

In the UK, 66% of people didn't vote for Brexit, with 30% of the electorate abstaining. Yet leaving the EU is the undeniable will of the people that's going to give us glorious sunshine forever more.

 

[Barn]

Hmm. It's interesting how the right-leaning media try and spin these things, isn't it.

In France, 56% of people didn't vote for Macron, and this is a bad thing that's going to spell doom and gloom and more doom.

In the UK, 66% of people didn't vote for Brexit, with 30% of the electorate abstaining. Yet leaving the EU is the undeniable will of the people that's going to give us glorious sunshine forever more.

The point is that it would be complacent to take from the victory that all is fine and dandy in France when the context is a very large fascist vote and a very large abstention rate. Given the choice of the final two I'm delighted Macron won, but the trend is not positive.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The point is that it would be complacent to take from the victory that all is fine and dandy in France when the context is a very large fascist vote and a very large abstention rate.

I don't think things are well in France, you only have to look at the unemployment rate to see that. But I find it interesting that the right are focusing on Le Pen managing to get someone to vote for her- bearing in mind she was the favourite to win a few months ago- rather than the fact her vote was much less than expected and the abstention rate was less than it was in the UK for the Brexit vote.

The vote for Macron was more overwhelming than the vote for Brexit.

 

[BananaRepublic]

The point is that it would be complacent to take from the victory that all is fine and dandy in France when the context is a very large fascist vote and a very large abstention rate. Given the choice of the final two I'm delighted Macron won, but the trend is not positive.

Precisely.

 

[BananaRepublic]

....I find it interesting that the right are focusing on Le Pen managing to get someone to vote for her- bearing in mind she was the favourite to win a few months ago- rather than the fact her vote was much less than expected.....

At no time was Le Pen considered the favourite. All the polls have consistently suggested that the sum total of opposition would not allow her to win, even if she had the highest percentage in the first round (assuming that it wasn't an outright 51%+, in which case there would be no second round).

The worry is that despite not winning, the FN have increased their support dramatically over recent years and increased it during the election, from the 1st to 2nd round.
They had set themselves a target of 40% (regardless of a win or loss) as a measure of their progress. They have failed to achieve this, but unfortunately now constitute the likely main opposition, at least in public support terms.
How will they perform in the forthcoming legislative elections (general election)?

The other interesting aspect, is how the socialists and left will react and how much opposition will they put up to Macron's attempts to make the sweeping reforms and carry out deep cuts in public spending and services.
If they put up strong resistance and carry a significant body of public opinion with them, there will be a lot of disruption and disquiet.
A lot now hinges on those legislative elections in a few weeks time.

 

[Senex]

In the second round, Le Penn received a third of the votes cast, but ended up in third place to abstentions and spoiled votes.

Does anyone know what the numbers actually were?

We've been told that 75% of the electorate turned out to vote and that of the valid votes case two-thirds were for Macron and one-third for Le Pen. But we also know that there were just over 11 million spoilt or blank papers. Do these count as part of the 75% or of the 25%? What is the total size of the electorate in France? And how many actual votes went to Marcon and Le Pen? Although Macron got two-thirds of the votes cast, did he actually have a majority of those who went to the polls, let alone of all voters?

I've seen much less detail than we should expect to have of a British election by this stage.

 

[sk688]

.
In the second round, Le Penn received a third of the votes cast, but ended up in third place to abstentions and spoiled votes.

Forgive me if im wrong , but surely the second round was a run off between two candidates ? Were there seriously more abstentions then people who voted for Le Pen ?

I am kinda confused about this , appreciate if someone could elaborate ( unless im just being dopey )

 

[me123]

Yes.

With a turnout of 74.6%, 25.4% of the electorate abstained (12,101,416 voters). Mme Le Pen received 10,644,118 votes. So yes, she "lost" to abstentions.

In the same way, in the 2015 election we had a 66.1% turnout which means that around about 15M people didn't vote. The Conservatives formed a majority government with just shy of 11.3M votes.

 

[Domh245]

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html

Summary:

Total electorate: 47,568,588
Total votes: 35,467,172 (74.56%)
Abstained: 12 101 416 (25.44%)

Valid votes: 31 397 916 (66.01% total, 88.53% votes)
Blank: 3 019 724 (6.35% total, 8.51% votes)
Null: 1 049 532 (2.21% total, 2.96% votes)

---

Macron: 20 753 798 (43.63% total, 66.10% votes)
Le Pen: 10 644 118 (22.38% total, 33.9% votes)

"total" is total registered voters, "votes" refers to ballots cast