Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Gareth Marston]

As Neil Williams suggested many pages back, here's a network-map of the W&B franchise with bus-style service numbers (attached). It shows my current thinking as to what would be a good minimum service pattern if only the infrustructure allowed it. Places where I don't think it would actually work are:

• service R4 (Swansea - Pembroke Dock), which with the only loop being at Tenby doesn't form a neat half-hourly pattern in one direction when combined with R2 (Swansea - Fishguard/Milford).
• Service RE5 (Cardiff-Liverpool) clashes with RE1b (Birmingham-Wrexham-Chester) in the northbound direction; this can only be fixed by moving the times of either RE1 northbound/westbound or moving the times of both RE5 northbound and RE3 (Swansea-Manchester) northbound

The second can be worked around by sending northbound RE5 via Crewe every two hours (replacing the faster OSLM (Birmingham-Shrewsbury-Crewe) service), which means IS2 (Chester-Shrewsbury) has to run hourly to provide a 30min-interval service through Wrexham northbound with the soundbound extra taking the OSLM path via Crewe.

Not sure how I can illustrate that on a map, so not sure whether to send the map to TfW or not. If you have any comments for changes to the map; fire away. Also, for RE4 (Manchester-Holyhead), which of Earlestown or Newton-Le-Willows do pepole think would be the more-useful stop?

Unfortunately I haven't managed to make the SEW Metro map; I cannot figure out whether it is possible to get away with Cathays-Radyr being converted to tram (sending all heavy-rail services via Fairwater) or whether the frequency involved requires both routes into CDF available for heavy-rail services.

far too Cardiff centric for what passengers and communities on the Marches and Severn/Dee require

 

[traveller1]

As Neil Williams suggested many pages back, here's a network-map of the W&B franchise with bus-style service numbers (attached). It shows my current thinking as to what would be a good minimum service pattern if only the infrustructure allowed it. Places where I don't think it would actually work are:

• service R4 (Swansea - Pembroke Dock), which with the only loop being at Tenby doesn't form a neat half-hourly pattern in one direction when combined with R2 (Swansea - Fishguard/Milford).
• Service RE5 (Cardiff-Liverpool) clashes with RE1b (Birmingham-Wrexham-Chester) in the northbound direction; this can only be fixed by moving the times of either RE1 northbound/westbound or moving the times of both RE5 northbound and RE3 (Swansea-Manchester) northbound

The second can be worked around by sending northbound RE5 via Crewe every two hours (replacing the faster OSLM (Birmingham-Shrewsbury-Crewe) service), which means IS2 (Chester-Shrewsbury) has to run hourly to provide a 30min-interval service through Wrexham northbound with the soundbound extra taking the OSLM path via Crewe.

Not sure how I can illustrate that on a map, so not sure whether to send the map to TfW or not. If you have any comments for changes to the map; fire away. Also, for RE4 (Manchester-Holyhead), which of Earlestown or Newton-Le-Willows do pepole think would be the more-useful stop?

Unfortunately I haven't managed to make the SEW Metro map; I cannot figure out whether it is possible to get away with Cathays-Radyr being converted to tram (sending all heavy-rail services via Fairwater) or whether the frequency involved requires both routes into CDF available for heavy-rail services.

A really good, well designed map, presentation wise, and some good thoughts into the potential network. I think that those ideals would present a very good improvement to what we currently have. I would be interested in seeing what ideas you have for the Metro area. I agree that connectivity is important, so through North to South Heavy Rail/EMUs through Cardiff Central is ideal in my opinion, but may not suit ambitions.

My own ideas on Metro which may not be as well thought out as others/yours, with buses focussing on inter-valley links or connectivity into train services* (could be adaptations/extensions of current links), avoiding Cardiff. Again all infrastructure permitting probably requiring new routes, dual tracks etc, and certainly not initial from day one, probably within 5-8 years?),

M1 Treherbert - Cathays - Barry Island (every 15 minutes)
M2 Aberdare - City Line - Rhymney (every 15 minutes)
M3 Merthyr - Cathays - Penarth (every 15 minutes)
M4 Coryton - Cardiff Bay (every 15 minutes)
M5 Bridgend - Vale - Cardiff - Ystrad Mynach - Treharris/Nelson (every 30 minutes)
M6 Maesteg - Pencoed - Cardiff - Ebbw Vale (every 30 minutes)
M7 Abergavenny - Newport - Abertillery (every 30 minutes)
MB1 (Bus) Neath* - Aberdare* - Merthyr* - Tredegar - Ebbw Vale* - Brynmawr - Abergavenny* - Raglan - Monmouth (West-East, Hourly)
MB2 (Bus) Newport* - Caerphilly* - Pontypridd* - Beddau - Pontyclun* - Cowbridge - Bridgend* - Porthcawl - Pyle* (West-East, every 30 minutes)
MB3 (Bus) Taffs Well* - Pentyrch - Creigiau - Pontyclun* - Tonyrefail - Porth* - Maerdy - Aberdare* (North-South, every 30 minutes).

Bus Links might seem a bit crazy end-to-end, but would envisage people might use point-to-point connecting with trains at stations marked *.

Additionally Brecon is connected already via TrawsCymru.

First time posting my thoughts on this, have fed generic thoughts relating to connectivity and bus connections into the official consultation, and I look forward to seeing how this all develops.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Travelling westound, the Newton-le-Willows stop used to be useful as it provided a same-platform interchange from Manchester Victoria [dep. x37ish] with only 10 minutes or so to wait for the following x52 from Piccadilly. This was useful if you were in Victoria about x30 with no time to get to Piccadilly for the x52 North Wales service. Unfortunately, the connections were not as good when travelling eastbound.
However, when travelling westbound on the peak North Wales services [1552, 1650, 1750] from Piccadilly. I often wish both the Newton-le-Willows and Earlestown stops could be omitted and substituted by Northern services, as these ATW trains carry a lot of "local" passengers. who alight at Newtown and Earlestown, meaning longer-distance passengers have to stand from Manchester, especially when the 1750 ex Piccadilly is only a 2-car 175 instead of the 2x2 rostered.

Newton le Willows is the more important stop and is in the process of becoming a transport "interchange" with a much larger car park.
There's also the issue of the upcoming Northern Chester-Victoria-Calder Valley service and where it stops.
From a purely Welsh viewpoint, there's no reason to stop at either.
The same can be said of Frodsham and Helsby - through passengers west of Chester must be minimal.
Runcorn is a bit bigger, and Warrington is a key interchange station as well as the area centre.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Also, for RE4 (Manchester-Holyhead), which of Earlestown or Newton-Le-Willows do people think would be the more-useful stop?

Travelling westound, the Newton-le-Willows stop used to be useful as it provided a same-platform interchange from Manchester Victoria [dep. x37ish] with only 10 minutes or so to wait for the following x52 from Piccadilly. This was useful if you were in Victoria about x30 with no time to get to Piccadilly for the x52 North Wales service. Unfortunately, the connections were not as good when travelling eastbound.

The possibility of interchange is why I think the service should call at one of those two stations, with three routes converging, but stopping at both would be time-consuming.

However, when travelling westbound on the peak North Wales services [1552, 1650, 1750] from Piccadilly. I often wish both the Newton-le-Willows and Earlestown stops could be omitted and substituted by Northern services, as these ATW trains carry a lot of "local" passengers. who alight at Newtown and Earlestown, meaning longer-distance passengers have to stand from Manchester, especially when the 1750 ex Piccadilly is only a 2-car 175 instead of the 2x2 rostered.

Interesting, I didn't think 175s had been booked to working in multiple for quite a while. I suppose with the Halton curve the ability to change for Liverpool would become much less useful so maybe non-stop from Warrington to Oxford Road wouldn't be a bad idea.

Oh don't send them a light rail map of the Metro, they don't need encouragement!

That's given me an idea: make a map showing just MetroTram services. Since I think light-rail should be quite limited, that's a much-easier task than including all the heavy-rail parts of the Metro as well. While they might not need encouragement to have trams, they do need encouragement not to turn the whole network over to trams. My aim is to try and achieve the Metro aims while limiting trams to where they might actually be sensible. A key aim seems to be to have a link between Cardiff Bay and Cardiff Central; the only way that can be done is probably a tram to a street-level stop outside CDF. The important thing I think is to make sure the current Cardiff Central and Queen Street stations are both tram-free. Attached is the two options I've come up with, option 2 is the one I came up with first, which avoids converting anything apart from the Coryton and Penarth branches. The problem with option 2 is that the Cathays Park to Heath Low Level section makes this quite a major undertaking in terms of new construction of street-running tram sections. That's what lead me to come up with option 1, which reduces street-running at the cost of removing heavy rail from the Radyr-Cathays line. I think I prefer option 2 as it gets 6 of the 12tph from Pontypridd out of the way, possibly allowing a 2tph semi-fast service from Brecon via Storey Arms and Merthyr Vale to be added at a later date (no scope for anything other than all-stops services with a line that would be at capacity).

Of course the way round all the above difficulties might be tram-trains, but how much would that increase the costs? Tram-trains also risks WAG scope-creep of tram-style vehicles (tram-trains) further up the valleys.

Note that since PDF-ing the map I've noticed that the road goes under, not over, the railway at Ninian Park, so the stop on the map should be 'Low Level' not 'High Level'.

Maybe a fully heavy rail Metro map showing increased services on the Valleys with an extra track over Newport Rd bridge

Even without an extra track, doesn't the new signalling following CASR allow 16tph? Taking the routes shown on the slightly confusing Metro Map published by WAG the eastern arm of the ValleyLines north of Queen Street might have 4 or 5 destinations. Frequencies might be:

• 4tph to/from Rhymney
• 1tph from Treharris
• 1tph from Blackwood
• 2tph from Cardiff Gate
• 2tph from Taff's Well via Coryton (maybe)

If it's all heavy rail, that would be 10tph, leaving 6tph free for services via Cathays (2tph each for Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr Tydfil). Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr Tydfil would then have a further 2tph each to Cardiff via Fairwater, added to perhaps 4tph from the proposed Creigiau route giving 10tph into CDF from that direction. If you opted for my 'option 1' tram map all 12tph from the Pontypridd route would have to go via Fairwater, meaning that, with Creigiau, the full 16tph would be coming into CDF on that route plus 6tph from the Vale of Glamorgan (4tph Barry Island and 2tph Bridgend. That would actually ease pressure on the Newport Road bridge north of Queen Street since it would only have 8tph up from CDF to Treharris, Blackwood, Rhymney and Cardiff Gate. It would mean you have 22tph arriving at CDF from the east with only 8tph continuing to Queen Street though (unless you turn some services back at Queen Street).

If you want a path for an additional Northern service from Piccadilly to Earlestown in the peaks you'd either need to have the ATW service terminate at Oxford Rd or it running all stops via Altrincham to Piccadilly. The existing arrangement is the least worse option. At least it doesn't stop at Eccles, Patricroft and Deansgate as well!

As I understand it there will be 3tph in the peaks anyway, the Northern Connect to/from Elsemere Port and the two W&B services. One of the three could ommit stops, and I think it should be the all-day W&B service (RE4 on my map) that does so.

far too Cardiff centric for what passengers and communities on the Marches and Severn/Dee require

Can you be more specific? From your earlier posts, I'm guessing that you mean service RE5 (Cardiff-Liverpool) should run Bristol-Liverpool instead, but wouldn't that have to be at the expense of a Swansea-Bristol service due to limited paths available through the Severn Tunnel? And is Cardiff really of no more important as a destination from Wrexham than it is to Holyhead (since, if RE5 went to Bristol, Wrexham-Cardiff would only have the 3 per day Holyhead service)?

 

[43074]

Out of interest Rhydgaled, which software did you use to create those maps? I like the look of those.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Out of interest Rhydgaled, which software did you use to create those maps? I like the look of those.

Adobe Illustrator CS3. The mainline network map (Railway Wales Map (LSE-version)), as the title sugests, was made by openning a PDF version of the London & SouthEast map and editing it (I've done similar with the London tube map in the past).

 

[northwichcat]

There's also the issue of the upcoming Northern Chester-Victoria-Calder Valley service and where it stops.

The Northern franchise agreement has the answer to that.

For arrivals between 10:00 and 15:59 at Victoria services will only have called at Warrington Bank Quay, Earlestown and Newton-le-Willows between Chester and Victoria. For pre-10am arrivals there will be 2 x Chester services and 1 x Ellesmere Port service which have made additional calls at Helsby, Frodsham and Runcorn East. There will also be an Ellesmere Port service departing between 18:15 and 19:30 which will call at those stations.

In the other direction there will be a Warrington to Ellesmere Port service calling at Runcorn East, Frodsham and Helsby which must leave Warrington before 07:30. The first ex-Manchester service to call at those stations will be after 16:00 and in total 2 x Chester and 1 x Ellesmere Port services will make calls at those stations.

 

[absolutelymilk]

There's also the issue of the upcoming Northern Chester-Victoria-Calder Valley service and where it stops.

Anyone know when this is likely to start? It was originally scheduled for December 2017 but that has been put back now I believe.

 

[northwichcat]

Anyone know when this is likely to start? It was originally scheduled for December 2017 but that has been put back now I believe.

Probably May 2018.

 

[gareth950]

Rhydgaled, whilst I understand where you're coming from. without going into the detail of the road and track layout between Cardiff and Penarth, believe me, trams between Cardiff and Penarth is a non-starter. Plus there's no need for it with Cardiff Bus already providing a regular bus service to Penarth every 10 minutes along the same route that any trams would take along Penarth Rd. To get trams then from Cogan hill junction onto the current Penarth branch line would be nigh on impossible due to the road and track layouts being on different levels. The area is already severly congested with traffic and trams would just be stuck in that traffic.
Whilst most of the old track bed beyond Penarth stn is still there as a walking path, halfway along a housing estate has been built on it.

The same applies to street tram running between Heath high/low level and central Cardiff. The entire section runs high above street level and crosses the A48. Heath high/low level - Queen St is currently done in 5 minutes by train, albeit non-stop. Trams are not going to beat that. I have no idea how TfW think they can get extra stops in at Cryws Rd and Roath Park.

Trams from Central to the Bay is feasible along Lloyd George Avenue, but again Cardiff Bus already provide a frequent bus service every 7 - 8 minutes using long, spacious bendy buses to the Bay and Porth Teigr from the south side of Central station.

The solution is simple - keep the current network heavy rail as is and any new stops or sections, apart from the extension to Hirwaun, build as light rail or express bus routes.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Trams from Central to the Bay is feasible along Lloyd George Avenue, but again Cardiff Bus already provide a frequent bus service every 7 - 8 minutes using long, spacious bendy buses to the Bay and Porth Teigr from the south side of Central station.

Looking at Google Earth it seems the Cardiff Bay branch was built with at least two tracks, so they wouldn't be any need for trams to use Lloyd George Avenue; they could just share the bay branch formation with the only street running being along the south side of Callaghan square and Tresillian Way. But none of that matters if it is the only feasible tram route in Cardiff as there would be no way to get to a depot.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Can you be more specific? From your earlier posts, I'm guessing that you mean service RE5 (Cardiff-Liverpool) should run Bristol-Liverpool instead, but wouldn't that have to be at the expense of a Swansea-Bristol service due to limited paths available through the Severn Tunnel? And is Cardiff really of no more important as a destination from Wrexham than it is to Holyhead (since, if RE5 went to Bristol, Wrexham-Cardiff would only have the 3 per day Holyhead service)?

Others will know better but the freight paths formally used by coal trains for Portbury through the Severn Tunnel will have freed paths.

Also I can't see your frequencies away from the Metro are being achieved which makes having trains go where the actual market is even more important. Demand between the Severn and the Dee is not to Cardiff, which i've seen evidence for - its only the 10th most popular destination from Wrexham despite having 9 direct trains a day.

 

[anthony263]

Personally there should just be the current 2 hourly Cardiff - Holyhead services along with Cardiff - Manchester hopefully perhaps with portion workings we could see direct services to Liverpool again from south wales.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Personally there should just be the current 2 hourly Cardiff - Holyhead services along with Cardiff - Manchester hopefully perhaps with portion workings we could see direct services to Liverpool again from south wales.

I think North Wales to Liverpool would be more representative of passenger demand.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Looking at the way other franchise agreements are panning out I don't think were going to see the step change in frequency beyond the Metro area that many posters are suggesting.

What do Forum members think are the most likely options for extra services in the franchise area?

North Wales Coast - with 5 trains every 2 hours between Llandudno Junction and Chester (incl VTWC) it already has a fairly frequent service. The issue here is more choice of destination off line.

Chester-Manchester/Manchester Airport- the 1 tph plus the extra peaks is set in stone by the Northern franchise agreement. The issue is where they terminate all to airport or not.

Wrexham Central-Bidston - a third unit diagrammed extending to Birkenhead North? with some peak extras over part of the line?

Chester to Crewe - frequency as now

Chester to Shrewsbury- will be determined by end destinations choices off North Wales Coast and Marches. Core of 1 tph as now, possible extras between Wrexham and Chester.

Shrewsbury to BHM INTL - 1 tph as now

Pwllheli- Machynlleth- as now

Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury - full hourly is attainable

Marches- 1 tph north of Crewe to Manchester as now, space for 2 tph Crewe to Abergavenny with some extras south of Abergavenny as part of Metro. Pattern will be determined by end destinations choices.

Cheltenham Spa - Cardiff - full hourly possible.

Cardiff - West Wales - looks like 1 tph path will be possible as far as Carmarthen- various end destinations possible?

Swansea-Pembroke Dock - frequency as now, maybe a few through trains to Cardiff.

Carmarthen - Milford Haven/Fishguard - a more balanced tt with better times for Fishguard best hope.

Swansea- Heart of Wales - maybe some extras over southern half that will help Swansea to Llanelli be 2 tph?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I was just thinking while squeezing into 2 packed 2-car ATW services yesterday (Birmingham-Holyhead then Manchester-Llandudno from Chester), that the simplest thing for WG to do would be for 2-car trains to be 3-car, and 3-car to be 4.
That's precisely what the current fleet prevents you from doing.
175s can't be extended, ATW doesn't have 3-car 158s and in any case they would need ETCS fitment, and there aren't any 3-car 150s.
Pacers and 153s are for the scrap heap.
So they are stumped, basically.
The biggest jam was on Chester-Holyhead, many people having just arrived on the Virgin terminating service at Chester (5 cars into 2), trying to board an already crowded service.
This was 2-car throughout from Birmingham.

Another noticeable thing was the long-distance traffic surge in early afternoon.
Most people on here talk about morning and evening commuter peaks, but yesterday's trains were full of long-distance travellers finishing off their journeys to Wales, complete with lots of baggage.
I noticed a Weymouth to Wrexham (changing at Bristol Pkwy and Newport), and a very odd Edinburgh-Llandudno (having arrived off an overnight New York-Edinburgh flight, and changing at Preston and Warrington).
Neither of these journeys is recognised in any planning I have seen.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's not hard to form 3-car 158s by splitting 2-car sets. It has been done several times before by several TOCs.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I was just thinking while squeezing into 2 packed 2-car ATW services yesterday (Birmingham-Holyhead then Manchester-Llandudno from Chester), that the simplest thing for WG to do would be for 2-car trains to be 3-car, and 3-car to be 4.
That's precisely what the current fleet prevents you from doing.
175s can't be extended, ATW doesn't have 3-car 158s and in any case they would need ETCS fitment, and there aren't any 3-car 150s.
Pacers and 153s are for the scrap heap.
So they are stumped, basically.
The biggest jam was on Chester-Holyhead, many people having just arrived on the Virgin terminating service at Chester (5 cars into 2), trying to board an already crowded service.
This was 2-car throughout from Birmingham.

Another noticeable thing was the long-distance traffic surge in early afternoon.
Most people on here talk about morning and evening commuter peaks, but yesterday's trains were full of long-distance travellers finishing off their journeys to Wales, complete with lots of baggage.
I noticed a Weymouth to Wrexham (changing at Bristol Pkwy and Newport), and a very odd Edinburgh-Llandudno (having arrived off an overnight New York-Edinburgh flight, and changing at Preston and Warrington).
Neither of these journeys is recognised in any planning I have seen.

There's a lot to be said for just getting what we have now up to a decent length formation (i.e 4 cars on all long distance routes in franchise) rather than messing around with increased frequencies which just produce conflicts or need infrastructure work.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's not hard to form 3-car 158s by splitting 2-car sets. It has been done several times before by several TOCs.

Yes but then you need more of them, and ETCS-fitted.

 

[craigybagel]

Yes but then you need more of them, and ETCS-fitted.

To be fair, you could acquire 2 car non ETCS 158s (if any became available) and split them, and use them in the middle of an ETCS fitted 158 to increase them from 2 cars to 3 cars.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

They don't all need ETCS anyway, only the Cambrian ones.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Yes but then you need more of them, and ETCS-fitted.

Only possible source is EMT and there franchise is not let till Jul 18 to late if any are let go to plan for them...

 

[Chester1]

Only possible source is EMT and there franchise is not let till Jul 18 to late if any are let go to plan for them...

When is the W&B deadline? Its plausible that if all EMT bidders are planning to replace some or all of the 158s that W&B bidders will be told in advance (unless this breaks a law?)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

When is the W&B deadline? Its plausible that if all EMT bidders are planning to replace some or all of the 158s that W&B bidders will be told in advance (unless this breaks a law?)

Confidentiality clauses prevent advance knowledge of bid content, in the bidder teams, the Roscos or Network Rail.
The Roscos, however, will know if their stock is not being bid and can draw their conclusions.
W&B hasn't got a deadline really, as unlike DfT they haven't published the process or an ITT.

 

[Gareth Marston]

When is the W&B deadline? Its plausible that if all EMT bidders are planning to replace some or all of the 158s that W&B bidders will be told in advance (unless this breaks a law?)

I doubt DfT is going tell the Welsh Government whose won in advance. This is franchising you know! Where the outcome is always the "best deal for taxpayer" even if you end up with hundreds of brand new EMU's going straight off lease....

Its entirely plausible that EMT could replace its entire 158 fleet which will go off lease...

 

[Chester1]

I doubt DfT is going tell the Welsh Government whose won in advance. This is franchising you know! Where the outcome is always the "best deal for taxpayer" even if you end up with hundreds of brand new EMU's going straight off lease....

Its entirely plausible that EMT could replace its entire 158 fleet which will go off lease...

I didn't mean W&B might be told who had won East Midlands! I said in the event of all bidders deciding to replace the 158s. Presumably in that situation the Rosco will want to look for alternative homes. That would still work if EMT bidders wanted to lease different numbers of 158s, the Rosco will still know the minimium number of units that would go off lease regardless of who won.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I didn't mean W&B might be told who had won East Midlands! I said in the event of all bidders deciding to replace the 158s. Presumably in that situation the Rosco will want to look for alternative homes. That would still work if EMT bidders wanted to lease different numbers of 158s, the Rosco will still know the minimium number of units that would go off lease regardless of who won.

dafT will not reveal it's hand until time for the announcement. It can choose not to accept all aspects of a bid so even if all the bidders want to go down the replace all the emit 158 road there's no guarantee daft will accept it. It's a very stupid bidder who will bid on something that might not happen which it has no control over.

 

[PHILIPE]

It's not hard to form 3-car 158s by splitting 2-car sets. It has been done several times before by several TOCs.

GWR have done it.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Here's the recent consultation events summary.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Demand between the Severn and the Dee is not to Cardiff, which i've seen evidence for - its only the 10th most popular destination from Wrexham despite having 9 direct trains a day.

So, what are the 10 most popular destinations from Wrexham? I would guess at the following, but it really is a guess and not a very informed one, and I can only think of 8 destinations before Cardiff:

1. Chester
2. Birmingham
3. Shrewsbury
4. Liverpool
5. Manchester
6. Warrington
7. London
8. Leeds
9. Cardiff

I can't see your frequencies away from the Metro are being achieved

Looking at the way other franchise agreements are panning out I don't think were going to see the step change in frequency beyond the Metro area that many posters are suggesting.

Outside the metro, my map is mostly only showing 0.5tph increases over what you gave (although my definition of the S.E. Wales Metro area is larger than WAG's)

What do Forum members think are the most likely options for extra services in the franchise area?
North Wales Coast - 3tph (my map) vice 2.5tph
Chester-Manchester/Manchester Airport- Unchanged on my map (expcept transfering stops to Northern Connect); re. the airport, I think either the off-peak service should use the current peak path in one direction (turning at Piccadilly in much less than the current 50+mins) or all go to the airport except when turning short at MAN to form the peak extras
Wrexham Central-Bidston - Unchanged on my map
Chester to Crewe - frequency as now (but extended on my map)
Chester to Shrewsbury- 1tph to 2tph + 3xGerald, one the biggest increases on my map
Shrewsbury to BHM INTL - 1 tph as now
Pwllheli- Machynlleth- as now
Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury - full hourly
Marches (SHR-CDF) - 2tph as you suggest (+ 3x Gerald on my map), but with Metro extras to Hereford vice Abergavenny
Cheltenham Spa - Cardiff - full hourly
Cardiff - West Wales - 1tph (as you suggest, but with extras MFH-SWA on my map)
Swansea-Pembroke Dock - frequency as now, but with extras CMN-SWA and in summer

I was just thinking while squeezing into 2 packed 2-car ATW services yesterday (Birmingham-Holyhead then Manchester-Llandudno from Chester), that the simplest thing for WG to do would be for 2-car trains to be 3-car, and 3-car to be 4.
That's precisely what the current fleet prevents you from doing.
175s can't be extended, ATW doesn't have 3-car 158s and in any case they would need ETCS fitment, and there aren't any 3-car 150s.
Pacers and 153s are for the scrap heap.
So they are stumped, basically.

There's actually more than one problem there. One problem is the long-distance fleet (158s, 175s and mark 3s), where the most-affordable option would probably be to get the mark 3s a derrogation and hang on until 2021/22 (using cascaded Turbostars to shift a 158 or two off the Maesteg/Cheltenham/Ebbw Vale diagrams) by which time options of mark 4 coaches or possibly a new design of DMU should be available. The only alternative I can see is if it is possible to tag onto TPE's mrk5a order. Could a follow-on order be delivered in 2019 if the winning bidder commited to it when the W&B contract is awarded (due Feb 2018 I believe)?

Whether mrk4s, mrk5s or new DMUs, the extra fleet gives you 4-car trains (and maybe some 5-car ones) to displace the 3-car 175s onto 2-car routes. The 2-car 175s you either subject to some 458/5-style hacking (either to add UEGs or convert half the driving vehicles to intermediates) to make more 4-car trains or just stick them on HOWL and Conwy Valley as they are.

If you do the latter, you help with the second problem which is the regional fleet. Currently, ATW has no appropriate stock for this; the 150s are no good for a long trek (too uncomfortable) and neither are the 153s in their current state. Either bring in the ex-Anglia and ex-ScotRail 156s or some extra 153s. In the latter case, strip the interiors completely and reconfigure with airline-style seating throught with only one row per window (it's the only way of getting comfort and window alignment in a 153, a table bay is too big for the windows and with the current seat-pitch the airline seating is too uncomfortable). How many you need depends on what you do with the 2-car 175s.

The third, and probably hardest, problem is the metro fleet. Could a winning bidder sign a lease in Jan 2018 for bi-mode 319s for delivery Oct 2018 giving a month or two for staff training before a Dec 2018 introduction of 319s? The Turbostars mentioned earlier will help for the outer-metro, but the inner-metro needs about a third of the 150s and all the Pacers removed from the franchise by the time electrification is completed.