Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

[richw]

I've just read a Tory MP post on Facebook that it's to help the public decide who leads the brexit negotiating. Whether we get the Tory or labour wishes.

 

[Bromley boy]

I've just read a Tory MP post on Facebook that it's to help the public decide who leads the brexit negotiating. Whether we get the Tory or labour wishes.

And this is why Labour (and UKIP) are screwed.

If you want a hard brexit, you'd simply vote for the tories. If you don't want brexit, or want brexit but to remain in the single market, you wouldn't vote for Labour.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

I imagine that the Lib Dems and Greens are looking to overturn the result of the EU referendum, the SNP are looking to overturn the result of the 2014 Scotland referendum, and Labour will be looking to overturn the result of the 2013 Falklands referendum.

 

[phoenixcronin]

I imagine that the Lib Dems and Greens are looking to overturn the result of the EU referendum, the SNP are looking to overturn the result of the 2014 Scotland referendum, and Labour will be looking to overturn the result of the 2013 Falklands referendum.

And the Tories are looking to overturn their 2015 manifesto commitment to "safeguard British interests in the Single Market"

 

[me123]

Scotland is a big unknown. It will be interesting to see if the SNP fad continues, or if we start to see a revival elsewhere. It's worth remembering Labour has historically relied on Scotland, and the complete loss of this represents a major headache for them.

I think the SNP will lose handful of the more marginal seats to an organised unionist vote, but still comfortably hold the vast majority in Scotland. It's not a fad.

 

[GusB]

I think the SNP will lose handful of the more marginal seats to an organised unionist vote, but still comfortably hold the vast majority in Scotland. It's not a fad.

I think the SNP will remain fairly strong, but I don't know if they'll be able to hold all the seats gained in 2015. Ruth Davidson mentioned "peak SNP" on the news earlier today.

It will be interesting to see how David Mundell, our only Conservative MP, fares. His majority is very slim.

 

[krus_aragon]

Feel sick, when will this hell end.

May will now be able to push through all sorts of things without any opposition, in the name of "democracy"

Well, we've just seen it work in Turkey, so why not here?

 

[krus_aragon]

Sounds like he's effectively an 'Independent Conservative' who's working with the Conservatives.

But if he's an Independent, then the Conservative Party doesn't get bumped up to official opposition in the Senedd, which is what Andrew RT Davies was maneuvering for in the first place! An editorial write-up by Nick Servini of the BBC is available here.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think the SNP will lose handful of the more marginal seats to an organised unionist vote, but still comfortably hold the vast majority in Scotland. It's not a fad.

The question is: will the number of disaffected Labour voters with unionist leanings who switch to the Tories outweigh the number of disaffected SNP voters looking to switch but won't vote Tory (and thus vote Labour or Lib Dem) ?

Personally I think it will, which should lead to SNP retaining most of its seats, Lib Dem and Tories picking up a couple of marginals, and Labour losing votes (albeit perhaps by even gaining a seat or two).

 

[cjmillsnun]

This news doesnt surprise me and its a cute political move to bury Labour.

To get the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act repealed 66% of MP`s have to vote to repeal it in a vote tomorrow

Now what does Corbyn and the Labour Party do ? do they

1) Impose a 3 line whip to vote against it or

2) Impose a 3 line whip to vote for it or

3) Make it a free vote

especially as Corbyn has previously said he wants such a vote.

Here in sunny Southport, I will be voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out , as I have an intense political dislike for the Tories.

I cant wait for 7 weeks of media barrage regarding this

To repeal the act requires a simple majority on a bill to do so. If they can't get the 2/3 majority required for an election, then she'll repeal it. However Corbyn wants the election. He's deluded enough to think he will win. The 2/3 majority will be found and the election will go ahead.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Been reported as the by-election has been called it can't now be postponed or cancelled so someone will be elected as MP for Gorton and then face re-election a month later!

That will be a day after parliament has been dissolved. It will be cancelled.

 

[RichmondCommu]

To repeal the act requires a simple majority on a bill to do so. If they can't get the 2/3 majority required for an election, then she'll repeal it. However Corbyn wants the election. He's deluded enough to think he will win. The 2/3 majority will be found and the election will go ahead.

In all fairness he had no choice but to say that. He could hardly say "no I don't want an opportunity to win an election".

 

[507021]

To repeal the act requires a simple majority on a bill to do so. If they can't get the 2/3 majority required for an election, then she'll repeal it. However Corbyn wants the election. He's deluded enough to think he will win. The 2/3 majority will be found and the election will go ahead.

I get what you mean, but you can't win the raffle if you don't have a ticket.

I'm pretty sure the election will happen myself, although I wish the media wouldn't get ahead of themselves and say it's definitely happening before the Parliamentary vote has actually taken place.

 

[southern442]

Feel sick, when will this hell end.

May will now be able to push through all sorts of things without any opposition, in the name of "democracy"

I honestly doubt whether it will be as predictable as it seems now. I reckon a lot of people feel cut off and clueless and just say they will vote Tory because they have the strongest message. When it comes down to campaigning there's a lot that could change their mind. Don't forget the Tory majority is still very small and whilst they no doubt will make gains they will also make losses.

 

[Butts]

I think the SNP will remain fairly strong, but I don't know if they'll be able to hold all the seats gained in 2015. Ruth Davidson mentioned "peak SNP" on the news earlier today.

It will be interesting to see how David Mundell, our only Conservative MP, fares. His majority is very slim.

Not as slim as the SNP Majority (328) over the Conservatives in Berwickshire,Roxburgh and Selkirk

 

[Cantab26]

To repeal the act requires a simple majority on a bill to do so. If they can't get the 2/3 majority required for an election, then she'll repeal it. However Corbyn wants the election. He's deluded enough to think he will win. The 2/3 majority will be found and the election will go ahead.

Outright repeal of the Act is not that straightforward. As I have already mentioned, repeal would require a simple majority in both the Commons and the Lords.

Insofar as I am aware, repeal of the Act was not a manifesto commitment. As such, the Salisbury Convention would not apply and the Lords would not necessarily allow the Bill through without a fight. This is especially the case given the number of peers on the temporal side, many of whom oppose Brexit, compared to numbers on the spiritual side.

Whilst the Commons could in theory re-present the Bill and invoke the Parliament Acts to bypass opposition in the Lords, this would of necessity put the the matter off to the next session and mean that there would not be a dissolution in time for a June 2017 election.

Moreover, it is not certain that the status quo ante under the Royal Prerogative would automatically obtain. I can well envisage new litigation on this point, adding yet more potential delay.

In these circumstances, if a supermajority is not forthcoming in the Commons, the only practical expedient available* to bring about an early election would be for the Government to encourage a vote of no confidence in itself, which hardly seems likely!

* Short of wholesale creation of new peerages, which carries its own political risks.

 

[meridian2]

Because there is no decent alternative moderate Labour Party:cry:

The good thing about a General Election is the result will probably be so disastrous that even the most block-headed leftist ideologues in the party will be forced to conjure a Plan B. If that means a traditionalist social and moral conservative Labour Party they'll nick the UKIP vote, Tory waverers, the more clear thinking Liberals, as well as tribal Labour and we'll have a political party that is both eminently electable and reflects the opinion of the majority of the British public in time for the inevitable Tory bun fight.

What's more likely is five years of Labour navel gazing and "issues" cul de sacs while the working people of Britain remain unrepresented.

 

[Bevan Price]

I predict that we will have around 7 weeks of incessant daily boredom on the TV & Radio news programmes.

The number of people voting in June will be the lowest proportion in recent history.

The tories will win - but by a much lower margin than they hope for (or the polls currently forecast.)

LD may gain some seats, but unlikely to have more than 20 -30 MPs.

Greens may gain a few seats due to support from ex-Labour voters disillusioned with "too-lefty" policies & uninspired leadership by Mr Corbyn.

SNP will lose some seats, most going to LD or Green rather than to Tories or Labour.

Labour may actually gain a few seats, getting votes fron one-time UKIP supporters, but may also lose 30 to 50 seats.

 

[Dave1987]

Anyone else find the images on some of the front pages of the papers truly chilling? Reminds me of the power grab in Turkey.

 

[WessexEclectic]

Anyone else find the images on some of the front pages of the papers truly chilling? Reminds me of the power grab in Turkey.

I agree with your signature.

 

[Jordeh]

Anyone else find the images on some of the front pages of the papers truly chilling? Reminds me of the power grab in Turkey.

I'm not a fan of these Turkish comparisons, the logic is that by going to the polls she's making a "power grab" - but that's how democracy works.

She's not going to get any additional power, the constitution isn't going to change, she is only going to gain an extra 2 years in power and most importantly we have an independent judiciary, free press and fair electoral system. It's nothing like Turkey.

Plus she's going from being an "unelected" PM to being an "elected" PM with her own policies (assuming she wins).

 

[southern442]

Plus she's going from being an "unelected" PM to being an "elected" PM with her own policies (assuming she wins).

I'm still really hoping that the Lib Dems can take enough seats off the majority for them to govern as a coalition. I don't like the Lib Dems very much, but picture this: May returns to EU negotiations, now that she has a mandate as leader, but oh, the embarrassment of sharing that mandate with a party that want to stay in!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

In the immortal words of Baldrick, will Momentum have "a cunning plan"...

 

[Jordeh]

I'm still really hoping that the Lib Dems can take enough seats off the majority for them to govern as a coalition. I don't like the Lib Dems very much, but picture this: May returns to EU negotiations, now that she has a mandate as leader, but oh, the embarrassment of sharing that mandate with a party that want to stay in!

I think you're right that the Lib Dems will do well and take seats off the Conservatives, perhaps anywhere from 10 to 30 at absolute best.

But then there will be considerable gains from Labour seats I suspect, like the Copeland by-election but on a much bigger scale.

 

[Busaholic]

Here's one for conspiracy theorists everywhere. The IPCC report into Alison Hernandez, the Police and Crime Commissioner for Devon and Cornwall who was election agent for the victorious Tory MP at Torbay in 2015 has just gone to the DPP. The LibDem candidate. and previous MP for the constituency, didn't lose by too many - in fact, the swing against him was by far the least in the whole of the West Country. What chances the DPP announcing any 'action' against individuals in any of the constituencies being investigated prior to June 8th? Nil, I would suggest.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Interesting point, and one supported by an article in one of broadsheets this afternoon (I forget which, possibly the Telegraph) which made the point that Labour holds a disproportionate number of *very* safe seats. Therefore even a healthy swing towards the tories won't necessarily translate into Labour losing as many seats as some are predicting.

Of the 20 safest seats in the U.K., 17 are held by Labour, was one figure given.

It depends how you define safe. The simplest measure is size of actual majority which ignores variation in turnouts and demographic changes. By this measure Conservative and Labour have a similar number of safe seats.

I noticed there is a by-election in Gorton on May 4th. Will this still go ahead?

Been reported as the by-election has been called it can't now be postponed or cancelled so someone will be elected as MP for Gorton and then face re-election a month later!

That will be a day after parliament has been dissolved. It will be cancelled.

It was reported this evening that the Returning Officer for Manchester is having to take legal advice on the matter as an MP elected on May 4th would have no Parliament to attend! But Parliamentary procedures have already been enacted which creates a problem in itself. Perhaps MPs will have to have an additional vote to deal with this.

 

[Jonny]

The good thing about a General Election is the result will probably be so disastrous that even the most block-headed leftist ideologues in the party will be forced to conjure a Plan B. If that means a traditionalist social and moral conservative Labour Party they'll nick the UKIP vote, Tory waverers, the more clear thinking Liberals, as well as tribal Labour and we'll have a political party that is both eminently electable and reflects the opinion of the majority of the British public in time for the inevitable Tory bun fight.

Unfortunately, some of Labour's hardcore are so block-headed that they could never do that. The chances of your average labour-ite embracing even small c aspects of conservatism are practically nil.

Here's one for conspiracy theorists everywhere. The IPCC report into Alison Hernandez, the Police and Crime Commissioner for Devon and Cornwall who was election agent for the victorious Tory MP at Torbay in 2015 has just gone to the DPP. The LibDem candidate. and previous MP for the constituency, didn't lose by too many - in fact, the swing against him was by far the least in the whole of the West Country. What chances the DPP announcing any 'action' against individuals in any of the constituencies being investigated prior to June 8th? Nil, I would suggest.

Probably very slim, and apparently the cut-off is the next general election

 

[HSTEd]

Greens may gain a few seats due to support from ex-Labour voters disillusioned with "too-lefty" policies & uninspired leadership by Mr Corbyn.

If yo thought labour was too far left.... why in god's name would you vote Green?
They are to the left of Labour on virtually every issue.

I am rather stuck since I am not sure who an economically left wing social libertarian who supports nuclear arms and nuclear power should vote for......

 

[Senex]

I predict that we will have around 7 weeks of incessant daily boredom on the TV & Radio news programmes.

The number of people voting in June will be the lowest proportion in recent history.

The tories will win - but by a much lower margin than they hope for (or the polls currently forecast.)

LD may gain some seats, but unlikely to have more than 20 -30 MPs.

Greens may gain a few seats due to support from ex-Labour voters disillusioned with "too-lefty" policies & uninspired leadership by Mr Corbyn.

SNP will lose some seats, most going to LD or Green rather than to Tories or Labour.

Labour may actually gain a few seats, getting votes fron one-time UKIP supporters, but may also lose 30 to 50 seats.

All of that sounds entirely plausible to me -- and certainly the point that a Tory win is likely to be by a much lower margin than polls and media are predicting (and May is desperate to get).

As for Labour, it's hard to see how they will lose many more of their "safe" seats, particularly with what looks like a much-weakened UKIP challenge, but judging from the interviews with their people so far -- and especially with John McDonald this morning -- they don't seem to have much idea of what positive policies they are going to be putting forward and just what sort of Brexit they really want to achieve.

 

[infobleep]

It's one way to get rid of George "6 Jobs" Osbourne

More than likely as probably have no legal choice in the matter.