Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Bletchleyite]

They might well be a good fit for Manchester/Liverpool to North Wales - particularly as these are hybrids of commuter and inter-regional services which would suit the combination of suburban door layout and InterCity seating quite well. Would probably want to remove or reduce First Class, though.

 

[Chester1]

There will be too many spare to work solely on Liverpool-Nottingham services, but then not enough spare sets to justify sending 8 or 9 units to a different operator. Plus there's the speed differential issue along the Hope Valley, compared to the 158 which flies along at 90. The 158s seem good enough to continue running these services, as pairs.

I've mentioned North Wales Interurban as a possible good choice in the past. Since it seems they won't be suitable for Cardiff services, perhaps their future lies with connecting Manchester, Crewe and Liverpool with Chester and the North Wales Coast/Holyhead.

TPE already run them through the Hope Valley fine. Assuming 2 spares there would be 10 left over which is sufficiently large to cascade. Alternatively they could leased temporarily and be used to introduce a third Hope Valley express once the passing loops eventually get built, or some 185 services could be increased again to 9 coaches. I suspect 6 coaches will be filled quickly on the Hope Valley due to the current overcrowding and because a 6 coach 185 only has an extra 30 standard and 30 first class seats compared with 2 x 2 coach 158.

They might well be a good fit for Manchester/Liverpool to North Wales - particularly as these are hybrids of commuter and inter-regional services which would suit the combination of suburban door layout and InterCity seating quite well. Would probably want to remove or reduce First Class, though.

The downside of using them is cost. They are a waste of money unless used on steep routes, transpennine north and south services are virtually the only routes they are suited to. They would provide an extra 18 standard and 15 first class seats compared with a 2 coach 175, 45 less seats than a 3 coach 175 and 110 less seats than a doubled up 2 coach 158. A Liverpool to North Wales is not guaranteed and if it does not happen capacity will need to be primarily through lengthening existing services. An extra 12 class 158s cascaded from EMT would complement existing stock and keep maintenance simple by not adding another class of train on top of multiple sprinter types, 175s and loco hauled mark IIIs.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Here's a spreadsheet with all the DMU's that are coming off lease and the franchises that are still to be let as you can see there approximately 612 DMU carriages (of which the 60 Pacers at ATW will go for scrap), 121 are coming off lease.

You can have an approximate 25% increase in carriages per franchsie with the off lease stuff assuming Pacers in Wales get replaced by LRT or EMU's and he 153's stay in service.

Enjoy

 

[squizzler]

The nature of franchising means there no real flexibility to shuffle fleets around the regions to meet demand or new trains coming on stream it all has to be done within the confines of whats available at the time a franchise is let which is then set in stone for several years with the next bidder in line then having to formulate their plans on whats left over.

I imagine the MTR Wales and Border bid did not include any ex SWt 158/159's however one of the others might have gambled that they would be free and are now hurriedly putting Plan B in place....

The franchise is presumably whatever the TOC concerned has undertaken to do. Flexibility can be part of the bid if the bidder chooses it.

Having said the above, the difference between a diesel and an electric railway is really starting to become night and day. Run electric, and there is now a mature market for spot hire of quality products both new and re-engineered. Run diesel, and you are having to account for the what diagram will be covered by which unit in ten yeas time. Rolling electrification seems inevitable despite the cost.

 

[gareth950]

Notice how it's gone quiet regarding whether Wales will get loco-hauled 442s to boost it's fleet this year? Seems that was just a speculative story in the local press in January. If it was, Wales can look forward to another Autumn of severe DMU shortages this year due to leaf fall season.

 

[northwichcat]

The previous poster was referring to the Liverpool-Norwich service (split in half), which is currently operated with 158s by EMT. If TPE took over the Liverpool end, and used185s, then the 158s might become available for W&B.

The earliest that could happen would be the May 2020 timetable change and that date presumes TPE receives their new Hitachi stock on time. Even if the idea goes ahead the release of 158s isn't guaranteed (they could opt for an internal cascade and release 156s) and given the franchise renewal dates the winning W&B bidder won't know if EMT will release any units prior to submitting their bid.

 

[northwichcat]

Here's a spreadsheet with all the DMU's that are coming off lease

Northern are releasing 18 x 153s - one of which will be going to EMT, which will mean 18 x 153s at EMT when the current franchise ends. Not sure how you got 9 x 150 carriages at LM, they have 3 x 2 car 150s which are supposed to be going to Northern once they get more 153s from GWR.

The GWR franchise is also coming up for renewal (with some of their DMUs already planned to transfer to Northern and LM), plus there's still question marks over 5 x 156s which Scotrail are releasing (they should be releasing 10 in total and Northern have secured 5) and whether the rest of the Eversholt 170s being released by Scotrail are going to be in to service by Southern.

 

[northwichcat]

There will be too many spare to work solely on Liverpool-Nottingham services, but then not enough spare sets to justify sending 8 or 9 units to a different operator. Plus there's the speed differential issue along the Hope Valley, compared to the 158 which flies along at 90. The 158s seem good enough to continue running these services, as pairs.

A truncated Liverpool to Nottingham service using the current timetable would need 9 diagrams. If the services were 6 car (as per DfT's proposal) that would require 18 units so 22 units allocated for the route would be ideal as it would allow for maintenance/spares without the risk of short forming being too high. I take it you're not familiar with loadings on the route if you think 13 x 3 car would be sufficient!

Maybe the Hope Valley would get some improvements if most of the services on it will be 6 car 185s? (South TPE services will continue to be 185s with doubling up between Manchester and Sheffield.)

 

[Philip]

A truncated Liverpool to Nottingham service using the current timetable would need 9 diagrams. If the services were 6 car (as per DfT's proposal) that would require 18 units so 22 units allocated for the route would be ideal as it would allow for maintenance/spares without the risk of short forming being too high. I take it you're not familiar with loadings on the route if you think 13 x 3 car would be sufficient!

Maybe the Hope Valley would get some improvements if most of the services on it will be 6 car 185s? (South TPE services will continue to be 185s with doubling up between Manchester and Sheffield.)

No, only 6 diagrams would be needed to run an hourly Liverpool service, as the journey is less than 3 hours. If all diagrams ran in pairs then that'd require 12 x 185s, plus another 3 or 4 for maintenance. It'd leave only a handful available for another operator.

 

[northwichcat]

No, only 6 diagrams would be needed to run an hourly Liverpool service, as the journey is less than 3 hours. If all diagrams ran in pairs then that'd require 12 x 185s, plus another 3 or 4 for maintenance. It'd leave only a handful available for another operator.

Yes I miscounted.

The TPE franchise agreement does allow the option of introducing additional services, subject to DfT/ORR approval so maybe if TPE will use that option to find a use for the other 185s. Maybe 2tph to Hull could be one option?

 

[Chester1]

Yes I miscounted.

The TPE franchise agreement does allow the option of introducing additional services, subject to DfT/ORR approval so maybe if TPE will use that option to find a use for the other 185s. Maybe 2tph to Hull could be one option?

Another option would be extending the TPE South services from Manchester Airport to Crewe. It was an optional extra in the ITT that First decided not to take up. That would require 2 extra units to run as 6 car. More units and staff could be lent to Northern and as I have said some 9 coach services would be viable by the end of the franchise. The Rosco might have no other options than a cheap lease by TPE on all 22 units.

The earliest that could happen would be the May 2020 timetable change and that date presumes TPE receives their new Hitachi stock on time. Even if the idea goes ahead the release of 158s isn't guaranteed (they could opt for an internal cascade and release 156s) and given the franchise renewal dates the winning W&B bidder won't know if EMT will release any units prior to submitting their bid.

Upto 31/12/2019 6 sets of loco hauled mark IIIs could provide sufficient extra stock as an interim solution. Plenty of ECML GWML mark IIIs will have no home and the rosco could offer a very cheap short lease before scrapping them in 2020. W&B bidders have the option of trying to agree a lease of extra 158s with the Rosco. W&B can take them on until 2033 after which could be scrapped. EMT bidders would have (more expensive) alternatives available so DfT could sanction it, especially if knows it will eventually have to bow to political pressure and split Liverpool to Norwich services.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The earliest that could happen would be the May 2020 timetable change and that date presumes TPE receives their new Hitachi stock on time. Even if the idea goes ahead the release of 158s isn't guaranteed (they could opt for an internal cascade and release 156s) and given the franchise renewal dates the winning W&B bidder won't know if EMT will release any units prior to submitting their bid.

Quite whilst the big picture looks quite promising if viewed from a network view but franchise bidders operating in a partial vacuum and having to go one by one might mean a surplus of stock by the end of the franchise round. The winning bid as seen by DFT may not necessarily be the most efficient in terms of stock cascades.

 

[gareth950]

Quite whilst the big picture looks quite promising if viewed from a network view but franchise bidders operating in a partial vacuum and having to go one by one might mean a surplus of stock by the end of the franchise round. The winning bid as seen by DFT may not necessarily be the most efficient in terms of stock cascades.

And this sums up everything that is wrong with the franchising system. It's bonkers that stock cannot be shuffled around the country to meet demand as and when needed.
It's incredible to believe that there's been no political will to alter the current franchising system for over 20 years.

 

[PHILIPE]

And this sums up everything that is wrong with the franchising system. It's bonkers that stock cannot be shuffled around the country to meet demand as and when needed.
It's incredible to believe that there's been no political will to alter the current franchising system for over 20 years.

Exactly. ATW have been locked into a no growth franchise since 2003 but passenger numbers have risen by about 75% in this time with no additional resources. There is no facility in franchise agreements to be able to adapt to changing circumstances.

 

[Philip]

Swapping 158s for 185s on the Nottingham run does seem like a backwards step to me. The 185 is a superior train but not very suitable for this route. There is a fair difference in speed, 158s can go at 90mph pretty much all the way from Hazel Grove to Sheffield, whereas 185s can't go above 70 all the way between Cowburn and Totley tunnels. Then there's the issue of the lack of gangways on 185, if they're going to run in pairs. Better to stick with 158s with the option of more transferring to that route in the future.

Single 185 units should be enough for most Manchester-North Wales services, doubling up a couple of peak time extras shouldn't be too much of an issue. The frequent stopping pattern of these services would also suit the 185 layout and the fast acceleration.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Single 185 units should be enough for most Manchester-North Wales services

Really?

That's as short-sighted as having ordered them as 3-car in the first place.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Exactly. ATW have been locked into a no growth franchise since 2003 but passenger numbers have risen by about 75% in this time with no additional resources. There is no facility in franchise agreements to be able to adapt to changing circumstances.

Its was hardly a changing circumstance Growth was happening in the run up to letting it and continued after it. Pretending that they had magic crystal ball that said rail use was not going to grow was just plain incompetent.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The franchise is presumably whatever the TOC concerned has undertaken to do. Flexibility can be part of the bid if the bidder chooses it.

Having said the above, the difference between a diesel and an electric railway is really starting to become night and day. Run electric, and there is now a mature market for spot hire of quality products both new and re-engineered. Run diesel, and you are having to account for the what diagram will be covered by which unit in ten yeas time. Rolling electrification seems inevitable despite the cost.

Agree in principle but magic bi modes courageously ordered by civil servants in face of expert opinion will save the day ( if the engines don't blow up trying to keep to HST schedules!).

Theirs some application for bi modes and battery trains for that bit beyond the wires but they aren't the magic solution that Daft hope they are. Watch out for the pollution ruling in April - this could change things again.

 

[northwichcat]

but passenger numbers have risen by about 75% in this time with no additional resources.

No additional resources isn't quite correct.

At the start of the franchise the 175s were shared between multiple operators, now they are used exclusively by ATW. ATW also increased the number of 150s they have and took on the two loco-hauled sets. They also weren't made to release a unit when Crewe-Chester went from a half-hourly to hourly ATW service following Virgin introducing an hourly Chester-Crewe-London service.

However, a disproportionally low number of additional carriages compared to the number of additional passengers is probably correct.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Northern are releasing 18 x 153s - one of which will be going to EMT, which will mean 18 x 153s at EMT when the current franchise ends. Not sure how you got 9 x 150 carriages at LM, they have 3 x 2 car 150s which are supposed to be going to Northern once they get more 153s from GWR.

The GWR franchise is also coming up for renewal (with some of their DMUs already planned to transfer to Northern and LM), plus there's still question marks over 5 x 156s which Scotrail are releasing (they should be releasing 10 in total and Northern have secured 5) and whether the rest of the Eversholt 170s being released by Scotrail are going to be in to service by Southern.

Yes theirs some tweaks that can be made and I should have stuck Chiltern on it for completeness but the big picture remains the same there is a the potential for the up and coming franchises to use off lease GA and TPE DMU's that could make a big impact.

 

[Chester1]

Swapping 158s for 185s on the Nottingham run does seem like a backwards step to me. The 185 is a superior train but not very suitable for this route. There is a fair difference in speed, 158s can go at 90mph pretty much all the way from Hazel Grove to Sheffield, whereas 185s can't go above 70 all the way between Cowburn and Totley tunnels. Then there's the issue of the lack of gangways on 185, if they're going to run in pairs. Better to stick with 158s with the option of more transferring to that route in the future.

Single 185 units should be enough for most Manchester-North Wales services, doubling up a couple of peak time extras shouldn't be too much of an issue. The frequent stopping pattern of these services would also suit the 185 layout and the fast acceleration.

The northern Chester - Victoria - Bradford service and an hourly Holyhead - Cardiff service would add allot of extra capacity but 30 more seats than a 2 coach 158 or 175 may still not be enough mid way through the franchise. Id expect the loco hauled extra Manchester services will stop by 31/12/2019. The time difference between the 158 and 185 Hope Valley services is negligible and W&B bidders will go for the cheapest option they can. If they can do a long lease with the Rosco for an extra 12 class 158s then they will. From the Roscos perspective W&B must be very appealing with a 14 year franchise, it can refurbish and lease old DMUs until they are overdue to be sent to the scrapyard, EMT and TPE can't compete with that.

 

[Philip]

Really?

That's as short-sighted as having ordered them as 3-car in the first place.

Why is it? The off peak trains aren't full by any means when leaving Manchester. Most are 3-car but the early afternoon sees a booked 2-car working leave Manchester and that copes ok normally. The peak time trains would need strengthening but I don't see how a single 185 wouldn't cope with off peak services. The option of the faster Northern Connect to Chester will also help relieve pressure on the Manchester-North Wales services.

 

[physics34]

Without me having to.trawl through pages and pages, please tell me what stock ATW is getting to provide the extra seats in may that has been announced today. Thanks.

 

[northwichcat]

Without me having to.trawl through pages and pages, please tell me what stock ATW is getting to provide the extra seats in may that has been announced today. Thanks.

Sounds like a reworking of the timetable from May to use existing units more intensively.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why is it? The off peak trains aren't full by any means when leaving Manchester. Most are 3-car but the early afternoon sees a booked 2-car working leave Manchester and that copes ok normally. The peak time trains would need strengthening but I don't see how a single 185 wouldn't cope with off peak services. The option of the faster Northern Connect to Chester will also help relieve pressure on the Manchester-North Wales services.

185s have very low capacity compared with 175s.

185: 154 Std, 15 1st, total 169
175 2-car: 136 Std
175 3-car: can't find a figure but the centre car is more than 64, so at least 200, probably about 210

It *might* work on the 2-car diagram, though that leaves little space for the expansion that needs to be planned for over the coming years (to me standing loads on nominally off peak services are totally unacceptable). It *won't* work on a 3-car diagram. Even if you reseated 1st to Std you wouldn't get more than an extra 5 (2+1 to 2+2 on same layout) to 9 (change to all airline and cram in an extra row) seats in, so still well under.

They would need to be *at least* 4-car. (For North Wales route reforming them to 2s and 4s would make a lot of sense, allowing 2, 4 and 6 to be formed - and you could do clever things like portion working Liverpool to North Wales via the Halton Curve with 4 from Manchester and 2 from Liverpool).

 

[northwichcat]

Even if you reseated 1st to Std you wouldn't get more than an extra 5 (2+1 to 2+2 on same layout) to 9 (change to all airline and cram in an extra row) seats in, so still well under.

If you were to completely refurbish the 170s with standard class only there is no reason why the seating capacity would be much different to the 3 car standard only 170s which have which have 198 seats.

Interesting Angel Trains give the capacity for 2 car 175s on their website but don't give the 3 car 175 figure!

 

[Gareth Marston]

Sounds like a reworking of the timetable from May to use existing units more intensively.

The Cardiff Area Re signalling has allowed some tweaking of AM diagrams at the expense of maintaining 15 minute frequencies in the middle of the day. Suspect its consequence of restricted remains of sempahore signalling being abolished on Rhymney lines that delivered it and Tir Pil loop.

 

[gareth950]

The Cardiff Area Re signalling has allowed some tweaking of AM diagrams at the expense of maintaining 15 minute frequencies in the middle of the day. Suspect its consequence of restricted remains of sempahore signalling being abolished on Rhymney lines that delivered it and Tir Pil loop.

Ironically it's going to mean passengers from Dinas Powys, Eastbrook, Cogan and Grangetown actually losing a key morning peak time service through Cardiff to Queen St and Cathays. Now, if the 0815 from Barry (0742 from Bridgend) is 4 carriages, its possible to board this service from these stations and be in Queen St by 0845 or Cathays by 0847. Now this service will run non-stop from Cadoxton to Central and instead a new train will run just before it, but terminating at Central.
So I'll have to leave 15 mins earlier for a 9am start in Cathays from May, as will other passengers, making the 0800 from Barry service even more crowded than it is, and its already 2 x Pacers every day and packed full.
I don't get ATW's management of the 0742 BGN - ABA service. It serves 2 peak time diagrams every weekday, inc the 1725 Central - Barry in the evening, yet you never know if you will get on it. Yesterday it was a single 150 so was crush loaded, today it was a double 150 so everyone has a seat! If it was simply a double 150 every day, everyone would always get a seat and there would be no need for these AM timetable amendments, which I predict on the AM Barry peak commute into Cardiff will make little difference. It could make things worse.

 

[PHILIPE]

Without me having to.trawl through pages and pages, please tell me what stock ATW is getting to provide the extra seats in may that has been announced today. Thanks.

None. I haven't had the chance to go through the arrangements yet but I think it could be other services/or part losing seats but they won't tell you that. Similar type of spin has been announced before.

 

[krus_aragon]

185s have very low capacity compared with 175s.

185: 154 Std, 15 1st, total 169
175 2-car: 136 Std
175 3-car: can't find a figure but the centre car is more than 64, so at least 200, probably about 210

Centre car (B) on a 175 has 68 seats, excluding tip-up seats in vestibules. The figure of 136 for a 2-car includes tip-up seats and wheelchair spaces, I think it's nearer 120 without. That still gives a regular seating capacity on the order of 190+, in excess of that of a 185.