New South Western franchise: Awarded to First/MTR

[HowardGWR]

All the talk on here is about the future of some trains. Is there no view about whether the new franchise will really make the hoped-for big improvement for customers, and are there opportunities that have been ignored?

 

[HH]

Surely it costs to build new rolling stock, where as already built rolling stock only costs to be used. I admit I don't understand it all so it may be that it's cheaper to buy new rolling stock.

If so perhaps South West Trains were ripped off. I don't know. Just seems rather odd. Especially when you have the DfT going on about saving money by converting guards to OBSs. I don't want to discuss guards here but more generally the DfT do go on about saving money and I can't see how not using the 707s is saving money.

You're looking at cost as if it's some global absolute, whereas each player in this game has their own costs to worry about: there's the ROSCOs that lay out there money to own the rolling stock and then hope to make a nice profit over time by leasing it out to TOCs; there's the TOCs that have to pay the ROSCOs for the use of said rolling stock. But the TOCs do not have to worry about the capital cost; all they look at is what the lease costs and what they cost to run, especially the maintenance (and of course the commercial/operational aspects, but these are largely guesswork). If the new rolling stock is cheaper to lease/maintain than the Class 707s it makes good sense to replace them.

 

[HH]

Could some of the 158s and 159s end up being "borrowed" for GWR routes?

Only the one that is borrowed already - it's in the ITT.

 

[Goldfish62]

As it stands at the moment they are moving onto the reading line.

No reason for them not to be used there until they come off lease in around 3 years time given that the platform extensions are nearly all done and longer trains have been promised. The question is, though, as I'm assuming none of the new trains will have 1st class to create an homogeneous fleet, I wonder if it will be considered worthwhile at all to reinstate the 1st class on the 458s, but instead abolish it on the Reading line early, or do the very minimum in terms of reinstate, eg not bother with the doors, reading lights or curtains.

 

[yorksrob]

Could some of the 158s and 159s end up being "borrowed" for GWR routes?

They haven't got enough to run the current service !

 

[antharro]

Presumably at some point First/MTR will come out with some details on what rolling stock they're going to use and what's definitely going to gotten rid of now and what's due to be retired/moved elsewhere within x years. Or am I being too optimistic?

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Only the one that is borrowed already - it's in the ITT.

In addition to that one

 

[Goldfish62]

If so perhaps South West Trains were ripped off. I don't know. Just seems rather odd.

Some might say that Stagecoach has spent years ripping off the DfT so it's divine justice, but I couldn't possibly comment.... And let's not forget the multi-million pound bung of taxpayers money that TfL had to give them to accept Oyster PAYG, including the absurd, but mercifully short-lived, Oyster Extension Permit (all quite well documented in archived TfL board meeting agendas).

Hopefully First/MTR will take a more collaborative approach to their stakeholders.

 

[HH]

It isn't just the ROSCO taking a haircut, though. SWT will have a comprehensive Driver and Guard training programme in full swing. Some sort of decision will now need to be made as to how long that needs to continue, to ensure there are enough crews for the 707s for the five minutes that they'll be in service, before being scrapped and a whole new plan developed for the replacement new stock. Those already trained on 707s will of course have to be retrained all over again, their newly gained traction knowledge going to eternal waste. All of this is not free, it costs an awful lot.

Network Rail will have just completed huge swathes of technical work to clear and approve the 707s on SWT metals, all of which will now have to be started all over again from scratch, because the manufacturer's badge doesn't suit the new boys. Again, that is not achieved free of charge.

If the trains are 'wrong', why the hell did the DfT approve them 10 minutes ago?! If they aren't 'wrong', then the new franchisee should be avoiding this absolute farce and making use of them. We can only hope that the incoming management don't take objection to the colour of the brickwork at Waterloo, or presumably they'll have the whole place demolished and rebuilt in a different shade of red!

Worst of all, though, is the system which allows the DfT to approve a TOC ordering a brand new fleet, towards the end of the franchise with bidding on the horizon, and then take the franchise away and give it to somebody else who makes it quite clear they don't want those new trains which the same government department has only just approved. The incompetence, the waste, and the general dog's dinner of the whole thing, just stinks.

1. While training on new rolling stock isn't free, the cost pales into insignificance against the whole life cost of the rolling stock itself. Ditto Network Rail's costs, not all of which will be wasted if the 707s are used elsewhere, which I rather suspect they will in time.

2. The trains aren't wrong, but they may not be ideally specified. I'm not sure if you're suggesting that the DfT should never change its mind if they realise they made a mistake? That would surely be wasteful.

3. And now for the pure speculation. There may not be too many tears shed at DfT if Siemens are inconvenienced by this (they made the sale, but lost the "on" costs). Most people thought that Siemens turned them over on Class 700s. And we know from past history that DfT have a habit of getting back at firms who do that...

 

[HH]

In addition to that one

They will have committed to the rest in the agreement otherwise there'd be bad news, which isn't allowed. The only way of moving them on would be to replace them with something better. That's not going to happen in the foreseeable.

 

[HH]

Presumably at some point First/MTR will come out with some details on what rolling stock they're going to use and what's definitely going to gotten rid of now and what's due to be retired/moved elsewhere within x years. Or am I being too optimistic?

It's already decided. I expect they'll make it public soon, because it will come out anyway if they don't.

 

[jopsuk]

Isn't this the stand-still period after the franchise announcement? I'd assume new rolling stock plans will be announced once that passes.

 

[HH]

All the talk on here is about the future of some trains. Is there no view about whether the new franchise will really make the hoped-for big improvement for customers, and are there opportunities that have been ignored?

Is there enough detail to know this? Anyway, fleet changes are surely the biggest single change that can be made in terms of improvements for customers?

 

[HH]

Isn't this the stand-still period after the franchise announcement? I'd assume new rolling stock plans will be announced once that passes.

This is the standstill period, yes. And I guess you don't want to make too many announcements in case there's a challenge.

 

[BestWestern]

1. While training on new rolling stock isn't free, the cost pales into insignificance against the whole life cost of the rolling stock itself. Ditto Network Rail's costs, not all of which will be wasted if the 707s are used elsewhere, which I rather suspect they will in time.

2. The trains aren't wrong, but they may not be ideally specified. I'm not sure if you're suggesting that the DfT should never change its mind if they realise they made a mistake? That would surely be wasteful.

3. And now for the pure speculation. There may not be too many tears shed at DfT if Siemens are inconvenienced by this (they made the sale, but lost the "on" costs). Most people thought that Siemens turned them over on Class 700s. And we know from past history that DfT have a habit of getting back at firms who do that...

Wow! Wasteful indeed. Unlike parking an entire fleet of brand spanking new trains in the sidings because of the abysmal way we choose to operate our railway. Not wasteful in the slightest.

Siemens won't give a stuff. The trains have been ordered and they'll get paid. If there was some sort of maintenance contract, it'll be dealt with by whatever terms were agreed at the point of order. It isn't as if the DfT are just going to tell them get lost and not pay the bill. Whatever they've lost isn't going to harm their profit margins too much I'm sure.

The whole exercise remains an illustration of a system ludicrously unfit for purpose. The railway needs to save money, we're told, and will cut everything it possibly can to get there, yet there seems to be a limitless supply of it when it comes to needless, gratuitous waste.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Most people thought that Siemens turned them over on Class 700s. And we know from past history that DfT have a habit of getting back at firms who do that...

And the ROSCOs, particularly.
Although they have all changed hands more than once since the big row.
If it is a price issue, Siemens may have trouble picking up more orders.
Silverlink/LM only went into 350s because the SRA let SWT order too many Desiros in the first place.
Funny how huge fleet builds come about almost by accident.

 

[Qwerty133]

Or another way of putting it - 750 new carriages for SWT including new trains to replace almost new trains supplemented by 90 additional carriages which have only ever been used in one part of the country. (90% of incoming carriages being new.) While they'll be 281 new carriages for Northern which will be accompanied by 164 cascaded carriages which will be cast offs from other parts of the UK. (63% of incoming carriages being new.) Although, of course both are inferior to Anglia were all existing trains will go and 100% of incoming carriages will be brand new.

Stagecoach's bid for TPE involved using redundant 442s. However, an ITT issued by Stagecoach indicated they looked at brand new self-powered and electric trains for their SWT bid but were not considering new self-powered trains for their EMT bid.

On the other hand First rejected the option of redundant 442s for TPE but included them in their SWT bid.

I wonder if companies are considering their other franchise bids when proposing options, so Stagecoach might have replaced the SWT 158s and 159s for the purpose of releasing DMUs for EMT?

Which would have been very short-sighted of stagecoach.
Without taking into account that the 158s are much more able to cope with their work at SWT than at EMT, it is just daft for a company to not put the best possible bid forward for one tender in the hope of being able to use some of the assets on another tender they are far from guaranteed from winning.

 

[HH]

Wow! Wasteful indeed. Unlike parking an entire fleet of brand spanking new trains in the sidings because of the abysmal way we choose to operate our railway. Not wasteful in the slightest.

And if the Class 707s are put to good use on South Eastern? Will that still be wasteful? This is actually how the Rolling Stock market was supposed to work. A bit of competition.

Siemens won't give a stuff. The trains have been ordered and they'll get paid. If there was some sort of maintenance contract, it'll be dealt with by whatever terms were agreed at the point of order. It isn't as if the DfT are just going to tell them get lost and not pay the bill.

There won't be any bill to pay. If there's no maintenance they can't charge for it; and their contract will be with SSWT, which will soon cease to exist, not the DfT.

 

[cjmillsnun]

And the ROSCOs, particularly.
Although they have all changed hands more than once since the big row.
If it is a price issue, Siemens may have trouble picking up more orders.
Silverlink/LM only went into 350s because the SRA let SWT order too many Desiros in the first place.
Funny how huge fleet builds come about almost by accident.

I would argue that SWT ordered the correct number of Desiros but they were then told after the order that they now had to take less.

 

[D1009]

So are most passengers. There's quite a lot of call for on-rail competition on here, because people want to travel by train as cheaply as possible. But that isn't the market. Non-rail-enthusiast people just want to travel - rail is one offering in a wide market.

The market is travel from London to the Westcountry (or whatever). It isn't rail travel alone.

We will have a situation where 2 First owned franchises will be in completion for London Bristol traffic.

 

[HH]

I would expect CMA to make some requirements of First, but that's as far as it's likely to go.

 

[jopsuk]

That's nothing, Stagecoach have a stake in the three intercity franchises from London to the north of England (and two to Scotland), with Govia running the suburban franchises on all three of those lines!

 

[HowardGWR]

Is there enough detail to know this? Anyway, fleet changes are surely the biggest single change that can be made in terms of improvements for customers?

I think that is highly discutable. One could mention:
- new services, is Farnham to Guildford really where it's at?
- higher frequencies, we down in Devon wait with baited breath (not)
- shorter travel times, fair enough some improvement to be expected
- comfort, I like the 159, just more leg-room required on a three hour journey.

And so one could continue, but we seem to be besotted whether this 707 order goes to some other user or remains on SWT. What does it matter, as long as the new franchiser provides the all-singing and dancing commuter metro vehicle that he has promised?

 

[HarleyDavidson]

Guildford - Farnham is a waste of time.

You have a 4 minute wait at Aldershot for a train and when you come back you have a 4 minute connection again.

Also there's the issue of platforming at Farnham, unless they completely rewrite the Guildford - Ascot timetable so that there's a decent gap between the Up/Down London's & Guildford - Farnham/Ascot trains.

You're going to need to have extra time to do the shunt move down the reception road, change ends and then back out again and still have a decent gap between the London's.

Headways under the new signalling is approx 3', but it's pointless running them too close as there won't be enough passengers to convey and make it worthwhile.

It has to be asked if one of the trains will miss out Wanborough or not, as most of the time you stop there no one boards or alights.

 

[Uzair]

Slightly irrelevant the grand scheme of things, but if the name of the new TOC will not be South West Trains, then what happens to the announcements that have been recorded by Phil Sayer? As he is no longer with us, there can't be a recording of his voice with the new TOC name.

I am an incredibly big fan of Phil Sayer's announcements across the SWT network (as I'm sure others are), so is there a chance that a name change will warrant a complete re-recording of station/platform announcements?

 

[HH]

Slightly irrelevant the grand scheme of things, but if the name of the new TOC will not be South West Trains, then what happens to the announcements that have been recorded by Phil Sayer? As he is no longer with us, there can't be a recording of his voice with the new TOC name.

I am an incredibly big fan of Phil Sayer's announcements across the SWT network (as I'm sure others are), so is there a chance that a name change will warrant a complete re-recording of station/platform announcements?

There's more than a chance. They'll probably need changing anyway and even if they didn't, the new broom generally sweeps...

 

[Uzair]

There's more than a chance. They'll probably need changing anyway and even if they didn't, the new broom generally sweeps...

Upsetting.

 

[Muzer]

It's definitely upsetting. Long shot, but I wonder how terrible editing together "Great Western Railway" with "South West Trains" to form the new franchise name (again, with the caveat that that might not actually BE the new franchise name) would sound?

 

[HH]

Upsetting.

I was rather amazed to find that there are fans. Is this a nostalgia thing, because I fail to see the attraction. Sounds like a poor man's R2D2 to me.

 

[Muzer]

I was rather amazed to find that there are fans. Is this a nostalgia thing, because I fail to see the attraction. Sounds like a poor man's R2D2 to me.

...not quite sure you mean R2D2 there. Anyway, besides the nostalgia, I do think it's a genuinely good voice for train announcements. It's clear and it carries very well (much easier to hear over accelerating diesels than Celia, say). It's well-spoken enough not to sound annoying (Atos Anne) but not too well-spoken as to sound overly posh. It also still sounds like a human being rather than a robot (is it Roger? The GWR one, honestly it took me a while to figure out that it WASN'T a text-to-speech voice...)