New South Western franchise: Awarded to First/MTR

[Suraggu]

First group were pressed on the matter yesterday and they confirmed class 707's are not part of the First/MTR franchise commitment on rolling stock.

 

[Domh245]

I respect that and I have said that i could be wrong, but as yet I am yet to be aware of a clear statement saying that the 707's are actually going. It appears to be based on the lack of loos and that there are a load of trains being ordered that are taking on the roles that the 707's were expected to do.

That does not necessarily rule out the 707's being used for other purposes within the franchise.

Tony miles was pretty adamant on WNXX that they are going:

707s may be off - that was the discussion right back to when the refranchising began... they're apparently not cheap and the replacement stock is being touted around at very nice prices. Assuming Stagecoach didn't dare bid with the removal of the 707s (having ordered them) that may be one of many things that made its bid more expensive.

Quite a number of sources think the 707s aren't in First's plans... Roger Ford has been saying this for several months.

Confirmed the 707s aren't staying...

I'd be inclined to believe it. It's certainly not conjecture on their parts based on a lack of toilets...

 

[ag51ruk]

What happens to the existing and already ordered units is just like happened to the 442s. They have nowhere to go until someone wants them. However, being third rail they have limited options:

1. South Western; seems the horse has bolted on that one.
2. Southern; has pretty much all new rolling stock as is; possibly next franchise, but that's a way off;
3. South Eastern; coming up for bidding real soon now.

Have Merseyrail signed the contract for their new trains yet?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Have Merseyrail signed the contract for their new trains yet?

Yes, and the depot to house them and to Stadler to maintain them.

 

[ag51ruk]

Yes, and the depot to house them and to Stadler to maintain them.

You may have missed the wink Third rail is not exclusive to south of the Thames

 

[Bletchleyite]

Had Merseyrail not signed yet, they might have been offered at a very good price.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Had Merseyrail not signed yet, they might have been offered at a very good price.

5-car sets would have worked very well - if they fit the tunnels.
Anyway, it's too late.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Had Merseyrail not signed yet, they might have been offered at a very good price.

Surely not enough sets of 707's ? (without going off track here)

 

[SwindonBert]

I'd be inclined to believe it. It's certainly not conjecture on their parts based on a lack of toilets...

Didn't realise that any mainline trains didn't have lavatories. Whether you'd want to use them is a different matter

 

[BestWestern]

It's called competition, that the CMA complained was lacking when the SRA/DfT determined rolling stock allocations.
The ROSCOs take a haircut or cut their prices.
It's only when you have a surplus that the market works properly.

It isn't just the ROSCO taking a haircut, though. SWT will have a comprehensive Driver and Guard training programme in full swing. Some sort of decision will now need to be made as to how long that needs to continue, to ensure there are enough crews for the 707s for the five minutes that they'll be in service, before being scrapped and a whole new plan developed for the replacement new stock. Those already trained on 707s will of course have to be retrained all over again, their newly gained traction knowledge going to eternal waste. All of this is not free, it costs an awful lot.

Network Rail will have just completed huge swathes of technical work to clear and approve the 707s on SWT metals, all of which will now have to be started all over again from scratch, because the manufacturer's badge doesn't suit the new boys. Again, that is not achieved free of charge.

If the trains are 'wrong', why the hell did the DfT approve them 10 minutes ago?! If they aren't 'wrong', then the new franchisee should be avoiding this absolute farce and making use of them. We can only hope that the incoming management don't take objection to the colour of the brickwork at Waterloo, or presumably they'll have the whole place demolished and rebuilt in a different shade of red!

Worst of all, though, is the system which allows the DfT to approve a TOC ordering a brand new fleet, towards the end of the franchise with bidding on the horizon, and then take the franchise away and give it to somebody else who makes it quite clear they don't want those new trains which the same government department has only just approved. The incompetence, the waste, and the general dog's dinner of the whole thing, just stinks.

 

[Joe Paxton]

Not that it matters that much but any idea what name/brand the new First/MTR operation is going to go by?

 

[Muzer]

Not that it matters that much but any idea what name/brand the new First/MTR operation is going to go by?

If they had come up with a great brand they'd already have announced it

My money's either on South Western Railway, or retention of the South West Trains name. If I were a marketing guy (which I'm not), I'd avoid just South Western so as to avoid association with the currently-unpopular Southern and Southeastern. And First don't seem to like putting their name in things right now.

 

[BestWestern]

Not that it matters that much but any idea what name/brand the new First/MTR operation is going to go by?

'Southwestern Railway' looks likely.

 

[BestWestern]

If they had come up with a great brand they'd already have announced it

My money's either on South Western Railway, or retention of the South West Trains name. If I were a marketing guy (which I'm not), I'd avoid just South Western so as to avoid association with the currently-unpopular Southern and Southeastern. And First don't seem to like putting their name in things right now.

I supoose they could opt for Southwestern Trains, which I believe is the 'proper' name of SWT?

 

[Morgsie]

One way to clarify the situation of the 707s is for a MP whose Constituency is on the routes affected to ask a formal question (Written or Oral) to DfT in the Commons after the Easter Recess

 

[abn444]

I supoose they could opt for Southwestern Trains, which I believe is the 'proper' name of SWT?

Well according to Wikipedia (not the best source I know), the new TOCs name (at least officially) is South Western Trains.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Western_Trains

 

[Class 170101]

One way to clarify the situation of the 707s is for a MP whose Constituency is on the routes affected to ask a formal question (Written or Oral) to DfT in the Commons after the Easter Recess

Just don't bother getting Chris Grayling, Justine Greening or Philip Hammond to ask the question because they won't.

 

[Class 170101]

In terms of the Class 707s how about these trains running services between Ashford and stations around the Kent Coast into Cannon Street / Blackfriars / Victoria / Charing Cross releasing 465s to operate SE suburban services closer to London?

 

[ExRes]

In terms of the Class 707s how about these trains running services between Ashford and stations around the Kent Coast into Cannon Street / Blackfriars / Victoria / Charing Cross releasing 465s to operate SE suburban services closer to London?

You are, hopefully, going for the toilet fitting option then?

 

[MrCub]

It isn't just the ROSCO taking a haircut, though. SWT will have a comprehensive Driver and Guard training programme in full swing. Some sort of decision will now need to be made as to how long that needs to continue, to ensure there are enough crews for the 707s for the five minutes that they'll be in service, before being scrapped and a whole new plan developed for the replacement new stock. Those already trained on 707s will of course have to be retrained all over again, their newly gained traction knowledge going to eternal waste. All of this is not free, it costs an awful lot.

Network Rail will have just completed huge swathes of technical work to clear and approve the 707s on SWT metals, all of which will now have to be started all over again from scratch, because the manufacturer's badge doesn't suit the new boys. Again, that is not achieved free of charge.

If the trains are 'wrong', why the hell did the DfT approve them 10 minutes ago?! If they aren't 'wrong', then the new franchisee should be avoiding this absolute farce and making use of them. We can only hope that the incoming management don't take objection to the colour of the brickwork at Waterloo, or presumably they'll have the whole place demolished and rebuilt in a different shade of red!

Worst of all, though, is the system which allows the DfT to approve a TOC ordering a brand new fleet, towards the end of the franchise with bidding on the horizon, and then take the franchise away and give it to somebody else who makes it quite clear they don't want those new trains which the same government department has only just approved. The incompetence, the waste, and the general dog's dinner of the whole thing, just stinks.

This is possibly the best summary of the whole farce I've read and it needs repeating and repeating until someone in authority starts asking the same questions and getting proper answers.

 

[Muzer]

Well according to Wikipedia (not the best source I know), the new TOCs name (at least officially) is South Western Trains.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Western_Trains

That provides a source for their assertion of the name; that source is the Companies House page showing that the company is called First MTR South Western Trains Ltd. While that's a good indication, it's not foolproof — as others mentioned, South West Trains's company name was Stagecoach South Western Trains Ltd. It's basically up to the branding/marketing guys (if any) to decide whether to go with that or not...

 

[Domh245]

It isn't just the ROSCO taking a haircut, though. SWT will have a comprehensive Driver and Guard training programme in full swing. Some sort of decision will now need to be made as to how long that needs to continue, to ensure there are enough crews for the 707s for the five minutes that they'll be in service, before being scrapped and a whole new plan developed for the replacement new stock. Those already trained on 707s will of course have to be retrained all over again, their newly gained traction knowledge going to eternal waste. All of this is not free, it costs an awful lot.

Considering that the 707s will be in service until their replacement stock arrives (I'd guess about 2 years from now, depending on who is building it, and in what order they choose to replace their suburban stock, so it could be more, or less), it's almost certainly worth finishing the training, unless you want cancellations for a few years...

 

[ExRes]

...unless you want cancellations for a few years...

Isn't that how Stagecoach started off their stewardship of the South West lines?

 

[Domh245]

That provides a source for their assertion of the name; that source is the Companies House page showing that the company is called First MTR South Western Trains Ltd. While that's a good indication, it's not foolproof — as others mentioned, South West Trains's company name was Stagecoach South Western Trains Ltd. It's basically up to the branding/marketing guys (if any) to decide whether to go with that or not...

Indeed, GWR's official name is still First Greater Western Ltd, having previously been "QUAYSHELFCO 1087 LIMITED". I noticed as well that a lot of bidders will often reuse a registered company from a failed bid to go for a new one, albeit with a name change, eg

 

[Class 170101]

You are, hopefully, going for the toilet fitting option then?

Of course.

 

[HH]

The number of new trains that First can claim surely must only be new trains that they have ordered, especially as some of the 707's should be in traffic by the time the franchise changes over.

The 30 x 707's plus the 90 new (First) trains would give you a total of 120 units, however if we assume that the 90 new trains are formed of 60 x 10 and 30 x 5 that would be the equivalent of 150 units with 5 coaches. That compares with 157 units with 4 or 5 coaches (excluding the 444's and 450's) which would be what the franchise will have as of the end of 2017. By having two fleets rather than three (including the 456's with the logistical headache that they could cause when trying to run 10 coach trains) there is probably some savings to be made in the total number of units required.

However with the 422's coming back they could allow 450's to supplement the services run by the older stock (i.e. Ascot - Guildford services) to make up some of the shortfall.

With the 707's being capable of 100mph running, if we assume the new trains are as well, then that could be where a lot of the time savings in journey times for the metro services are going to be found (it could also reduce the number of units required to run the same level of service).

I could be wrong but I think that there is a chance that the 707's are going to stay and it's the older units that are the ones moving on. From the above it certainly implies that to me rather than the 707's being the ones being moved on.

I honestly don't know where to start here. There are 707s coming in after the franchise starts; it would be normal for DfT to claim them in the numbers if they were staying. They haven't.

Your maths is a bit dodgy; 60 x 10 plus 30 x 5 is 750 vehicles. That is more than the class 707 (including second phase), 458, 455 and 456 combined, which comes to 742 vehicles. The new units will also have a higher capacity.

The 707s are going to go. There's no room for them with all the other commitments made.

 

[HH]

From the view that they have only just been ordered.. I don't see the 707's disappearing. Surely DFT would have taken this into account with the bids, maybe First/MTR put their bets on these 90 new vehicles also being Desiro City variants but with the toilets they should have always had, and sending off the current 707s delivered to be retrofitted with toilets etc?

I expect we'll have an announcement of the supplier soon and this speculation can cease. If it's Siemens then I'll eat my virtual hat.

 

[Goldfish62]

I honestly don't know where to start here. There are 707s coming in after the franchise starts; it would be normal for DfT to claim them in the numbers if they were staying. They haven't.

Your maths is a bit dodgy; 60 x 10 plus 30 x 5 is 750 vehicles. That is more than the class 707 (including second phase), 458, 455 and 456 combined, which comes to 742 vehicles. The new units will also have a higher capacity.

The 707s are going to go. There's no room for them with all the other commitments made.

Indeed, and add in the 90 carriages-worth of 442s so that's 98 extra carriages over and above what SWT will have by the end of this year. The 707s, 458s and the rest are simply not needed. Barmy it might be, but that's how it's panning out.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

How likely is it that whatever replaces the 455s, 456s, 458s and 707s will see some examples being 8, 10 or 12 car fixed formation units?

Could some of the 158s and 159s end up being "borrowed" for GWR routes?

 

[Goldfish62]

Considering that the 707s will be in service until their replacement stock arrives (I'd guess about 2 years from now, depending on who is building it, and in what order they choose to replace their suburban stock, so it could be more, or less), it's almost certainly worth finishing the training, unless you want cancellations for a few years...

A PowerPoint presentation I saw today suggests that the first of the new stock is delivered late 2019, running though to the end of 2020.

Logically the 455s and 456s would go first, then the 458s and finally the 707s. So the 707s will have over three years service before being moved elsewhere.