New South Western franchise: Awarded to First/MTR

[Muzer]

The number of new trains that First can claim surely must only be new trains that they have ordered, especially as some of the 707's should be in traffic by the time the franchise changes over.

The 30 x 707's plus the 90 new (First) trains would give you a total of 120 units, however if we assume that the 90 new trains are formed of 60 x 10 and 30 x 5 that would be the equivalent of 150 units with 5 coaches. That compares with 157 units with 4 or 5 coaches (excluding the 444's and 450's) which would be what the franchise will have as of the end of 2017. By having two fleets rather than three (including the 456's with the logistical headache that they could cause when trying to run 10 coach trains) there is probably some savings to be made in the total number of units required.

However with the 422's coming back they could allow 450's to supplement the services run by the older stock (i.e. Ascot - Guildford services) to make up some of the shortfall.

With the 707's being capable of 100mph running, if we assume the new trains are as well, then that could be where a lot of the time savings in journey times for the metro services are going to be found (it could also reduce the number of units required to run the same level of service).

I could be wrong but I think that there is a chance that the 707's are going to stay and it's the older units that are the ones moving on. From the above it certainly implies that to me rather than the 707's being the ones being moved on.

Good points. I reckon as well the promise that all mainland trains will have loos fits into this. Retrofitting loos to the 455s and 456s presumably wouldn't be as easy as fitting them to 707s, where the design would presumably be modular and just replace a few seats. So I can certainly imagine the franchise ending up with 444s, 450s, 442s, 707s, 458/5s, First's new units (which will probably be heavily biased towards being Desiro-based so they can be more homogeneous with 707s), 158s, 159s, and of course the 483s.

 

[The Ham]

Good points. I reckon as well the promise that all mainland trains will have loos fits into this. Retrofitting loos to the 455s and 456s presumably wouldn't be as easy as fitting them to 707s, where the design would presumably be modular and just replace a few seats. So I can certainly imagine the franchise ending up with 444s, 450s, 442s, 707s, 458/5s, First's new units (which will probably be heavily biased towards being Desiro-based so they can be more homogeneous with 707s), 158s, 159s, and of course the 483s.

I'm not so sure about the 485/5's, I had counted them as units that could be moving on in my figures.

 

[Muzer]

I'm not so sure about the 485/5's, I had counted them as units that could be moving on in my figures.

Oh, I see. That's also possible, but there's life left in them, they're reliable units, and they're unlikely to find another home for them by comparison to the 707s. There are also more 458/5s than there are 707s. I'm really not sure what to think.

 

[northwichcat]

More "make do and mend" for the Southern Region (inc retaining the oldest stock on the network whilst reintroduced redundant 442s) whilst Northern and Transpennine get brand new trains

Or another way of putting it - 750 new carriages for SWT including new trains to replace almost new trains supplemented by 90 additional carriages which have only ever been used in one part of the country. (90% of incoming carriages being new.) While they'll be 281 new carriages for Northern which will be accompanied by 164 cascaded carriages which will be cast offs from other parts of the UK. (63% of incoming carriages being new.) Although, of course both are inferior to Anglia were all existing trains will go and 100% of incoming carriages will be brand new.

Stagecoach's bid for TPE involved using redundant 442s. However, an ITT issued by Stagecoach indicated they looked at brand new self-powered and electric trains for their SWT bid but were not considering new self-powered trains for their EMT bid.

On the other hand First rejected the option of redundant 442s for TPE but included them in their SWT bid.

I wonder if companies are considering their other franchise bids when proposing options, so Stagecoach might have replaced the SWT 158s and 159s for the purpose of releasing DMUs for EMT?

 

[swt_passenger]

So I can certainly imagine the franchise ending up with 444s, 450s, 442s, 707s, 458/5s, First's new units (which will probably be heavily biased towards being Desiro-based so they can be more homogeneous with 707s), 158s, 159s, and of course the 483s.

Tony Miles and Roger Ford (of Modern Railways) have both stated elsewhere that the 707s are definitely going.

 

[swt_passenger]

I'm not so sure about the 485/5's, I had counted them as units that could be moving on in my figures.

I wonder if they can be easily (or economically) modified back into 100mph units? The decision to regear them to 75 mph specifically for the Windsor side routes makes them useless for many DC area services, unless they get changed back.

 

[infobleep]

It's pure speculation. Unlike some people think, this is nothing at all to do with DfT. Bidders had a choice on much of the Rolling Stock and First/MTR chose not to keep the 707s. I suspect for cost reasons; just like Siemens lost the order at ScotRail.

What happens to the existing and already ordered units is just like happened to the 442s. They have nowhere to go until someone wants them. However, being third rail they have limited options:

1. South Western; seems the horse has bolted on that one.
2. Southern; has pretty much all new rolling stock as is; possibly next franchise, but that's a way off;
3. South Eastern; coming up for bidding real soon now.

If you are in a hurry to get that nice, expensive new rolling stock earning money for you, then there would appear to be only one game in town. I suppose they could be converted to OHL use, but that's expensive.

So will the rolling stock company make a huge loss and if so be less prepared to lease rolling stock for a similar price in future?

 

[infobleep]

Which demonstrates the utter, utter nonsense of the whole system. As always, the waste is astounding.

Get rid of the guards that will save some money.

 

[infobleep]

How do you work that out?

Surely it costs to build new rolling stock, where as already built rolling stock only costs to be used. I admit I don't understand it all so it may be that it's cheaper to buy new rolling stock.

If so perhaps South West Trains were ripped off. I don't know. Just seems rather odd. Especially when you have the DfT going on about saving money by converting guards to OBSs. I don't want to discuss guards here but more generally the DfT do go on about saving money and I can't see how not using the 707s is saving money.

 

[3141]

So will the rolling stock company make a huge loss and if so be less prepared to lease rolling stock for a similar price in future?

It might be necessary to have inside knowledge of the workings of a ROSCO to know how big the loss will be. There will presumably be some income from leasing the 707s until First/MTR start getting their new stock. There could then be a loss, or at least a reduced income, IF the successful bidder for the SE franchise uses them.

But there's no guarantee that all bidders for SE will include leasing the 707s in their proposals, or that the winner will be one that does.

The ROSCO may try to increase its future leasing costs to cover any loss on the 707s, and to take account of the risk of any remotely similar situation happening again. Something similar already is with the 379s, and with so much stock apparently looking for a new operator (from GA, SW and maybe SE) it's going to be hard to put leasing charges up.

 

[Masbroughlad]

I take it that First having monopoly on London to the West Country doesn't matter?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I take it that First having monopoly on London to the West Country doesn't matter?

The competitor is the car and (to a small extent) plane.

 

[swt_passenger]

I take it that First having monopoly on London to the West Country doesn't matter?

I don't think it does, although people always often the question. Stagecoach are involved with ECML, WCML and MML at the moment without any obvious competition worries.

As Neil says the authorities are more interested in other modes of transport, especially buses and coaches.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As Neil says the authorities are more interested in other modes of transport, especially buses and coaches.

So are most passengers. There's quite a lot of call for on-rail competition on here, because people want to travel by train as cheaply as possible. But that isn't the market. Non-rail-enthusiast people just want to travel - rail is one offering in a wide market.

The market is travel from London to the Westcountry (or whatever). It isn't rail travel alone.

 

[new2this]

I'm not so sure about the 485/5's, I had counted them as units that could be moving on in my figures.

As it stands at the moment they are moving onto the reading line.

 

[new2this]

Get rid of the guards that will save some money.

WHY? Guards do play an in valuable service so it's obvious it's all about money to you then, its fantastic that SWT have a guard on every train.

 

[Muzer]

Well, if the 707s are going vice the 458/5s, that would mean more vehicles in total too.

 

[new2this]

Tony Miles and Roger Ford (of Modern Railways) have both stated elsewhere that the 707s are definitely going.

I really can not see them going nowhere.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Surely it costs to build new rolling stock, where as already built rolling stock only costs to be used. I admit I don't understand it all so it may be that it's cheaper to buy new rolling stock.

If so perhaps South West Trains were ripped off. I don't know. Just seems rather odd. Especially when you have the DfT going on about saving money by converting guards to OBSs. I don't want to discuss guards here but more generally the DfT do go on about saving money and I can't see how not using the 707s is saving money.

The financial risk for the 707s lies with the ROSCO (Angel Trains), not the TOC or DfT.
Sometimes the DfT issues a Section 54 agreement which guarantees future lease revenues to the ROSCO beyond the end of the franchise in question (usually for something like 10 years).
It seems it hasn't in this case.
So it all depends what deal Angel has with Stagecoach on the 707s.
Cost reduction is a prime motive of the refranchising competition.

 

[Suraggu]

I really can not see them going nowhere.

Mr Miles and Mr Ford do not like to report on rumours. They are respected railway journalists rather than platform end wibble.

 

[BBC]

Not really sure what all this hate is towards GWR, but in the 6 years iv lived in the west iv had 1 problem with them. I think First has done a decent job.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not really sure what all this hate is towards GWR, but in the 6 years iv lived in the west iv had 1 problem with them. I think First has done a decent job.

There's quite a difference between the InterCity services (which are by all accounts pretty good, particularly given the age of the equipment in use) and the Thames Valley commuter services (which are pretty dire at times).

 

[new2this]

There's quite a difference between the InterCity services (which are by all accounts pretty good, particularly given the age of the equipment in use) and the Thames Valley commuter services (which are pretty dire at times).

I think that's why first got MTR involved in the end and decided to not go at this franchise alone is because they are not very good at running metro services and by all accounts MTR are, time will tell I suppose.

 

[BestWestern]

The cross-channel ferries are a lengthy bus or taxi ride away so I'm not sure it's really possible to speak of a 'connection'.

They certainly are; they're in Portsmouth! From So'ton one can travel Red Funnel over to the Isle of Wight. I agree it isn't really a connection as such, the sailings are sufficiently frequent that travel to So'ton doesn't need to be too specific.

 

[urpert]

They certainly are; they're in Portsmouth! From So'ton one can travel Red Funnel over to the Isle of Wight. I agree it isn't really a connection as such, the sailings are sufficiently frequent that travel to So'ton doesn't need to be too specific.

Haha that'll teach me not to read the original post... do you think the OP is aware that you don't need a passport to travel to the IOW?

 

[ComUtoR]

Haha that'll teach me not to read the original post... do you think the OP is aware that you don't need a passport to travel to the IOW?

Might need a tetanus shot though

 

[swt_passenger]

I really can not see them going nowhere.

Was the double negative intentional?

 

[313103]

Get rid of the guards that will save some money.

Never a truer word said in jest!

 

[jimm]

I think that's why first got MTR involved in the end and decided to not go at this franchise alone is because they are not very good at running metro services and by all accounts MTR are, time will tell I suppose.

Not very good at running metro services?

Maybe it has something to do with Thames Trains followed by FGW/GWR being stuck with a suburban train fleet that hasn't increased in size since BR days in 1993 - unlike just about every other London commuter operation, not least SWT where there is no comparison between the amount of rolling stock now available and what Stagecoach took over from BR in 1996. If GWR was able to run 8-car or 10-car Turbo formations in the peaks, passengers might have had rather different perceptions of the service in recent years

And for the past decade we have been waiting for Crossrail to happen, which has meant no one at the DfT has been interested in doing anything much to help matters on GW suburban services, as they can just say 'TfL is going to sort it out...'

DfT funding for the return of five 180s and the use of the 150/0s on Reading-Basingstoke peak jobs to free a few Turbos for the Thames Valley peaks was a drop in the ocean frankly.

 

[The Ham]

Mr Miles and Mr Ford do not like to report on rumours. They are respected railway journalists rather than platform end wibble.

I respect that and I have said that i could be wrong, but as yet I am yet to be aware of a clear statement saying that the 707's are actually going. It appears to be based on the lack of loos and that there are a load of trains being ordered that are taking on the roles that the 707's were expected to do.

That does not necessarily rule out the 707's being used for other purposes within the franchise.