Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Gareth Marston]

That's quite positive as it offers a genuine choice rather than all bids being much the same and just differing on minor details like which rolling stock is to be procured and the exact price as is more common on the mainline.

Same source says there's little difference between them on what's been proposed elsewhere in the franchise.

 

[Chester1]

As I posted previously my sources confirm one bidder has gone for all heavy rail metro one an all LRT system and the other 2 a mixture.

I am surprised a bidder has gone for all LRT due to problems with mixing trams with freight. I am generally pro heavy rail conversion to LRT because I find Manchesters on street running very convenient and switching heavy rail commuter services to LRT frees up city centre paths. LRT would be especially beneficial for South Wales if there is sufficient funding for new sections with gradients too steep for heavy rail.

Are any of the bidders considering reopening freight only lines for passenger services?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am surprised a bidder has gone for all LRT due to problems with mixing trams with freight

Tram-train? (These, as you might note from Sheffield, look remarkably like just trams, but are structurally stronger so they can inter-work with trains).

 

[gareth950]

I am surprised a bidder has gone for all LRT due to problems with mixing trams with freight. I am generally pro heavy rail conversion to LRT because I find Manchesters on street running very convenient and switching heavy rail commuter services to LRT frees up city centre paths. LRT would be especially beneficial for South Wales if there is sufficient funding for new sections with gradients too steep for heavy rail.

Are any of the bidders considering reopening freight only lines for passenger services?

Apart from possibly the Cardiff Bay branch and any extension, I doubt there will be any on-street running with the current valley lines network, which is on very high embankments through Cardiff. Central Cardiff is a very compact city and believe me, there's no room for any trams in the streets unless cars and buses were banned from said streets, at least north of Central station.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Apart from possibly the Cardiff Bay branch and any extension, I doubt there will be any on-street running with the current valley lines network. Central Cardiff is a very compact city and believe me, there's no room for any trams in the streets unless cars and buses were banned from said streets.

Might not be an altogether bad thing if they were?

 

[gareth950]

Might not be an altogether bad thing if they were?

Agreed, but try getting that past Cardiff council and the Welsh Govt.

 

[Chester1]

Tram-train? (These, as you might note from Sheffield, look remarkably like just trams, but are structurally stronger so they can inter-work with trains).

The Sheffield trial is very behind schedule so it would be a risk proposing it for South Wales for now. Tram trains in Europe work best with limited sections of heavy rail electrics so they would be more suited to South Wales than Manchester. Freight wouldn't need overhead electrification and would be low frequency. One of the routes from Radyr to Cardiff could be switched entirely to LRT as well, so the mixed use track could be small.

Apart from possibly the Cardiff Bay branch and any extension, I doubt there will be any on-street running with the current valley lines network, which is on very high embankments through Cardiff. Central Cardiff is a very compact city and believe me, there's no room for any trams in the streets unless cars and buses were banned from said streets, at least north of Central station.

Without an on street section LRT is a non starter surely? How could the heavy rail system cope with a much higher frequency of services within Cardiff?

 

[Envoy]

Trams on the streets of Central Cardiff would be ridiculous. The main shopping areas (& office blocks) are within 7 minutes walk of both Central & Queen Street Stations. The streets are relatively narrow and full of pedestrians. So, why would you wish to have trams on busy streets? Far better the system we have now with trains segregated from traffic/streets and therefore able to keep to a schedule.

Trams replacing local buses on the streets is also not a good idea as they can’t overtake. Metal on metal is also noisy and the wheels screech on tight corners.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Without an on street section LRT is a non starter surely? How could the heavy rail system cope with a much higher frequency of services within Cardiff?

I think the capacity issue would be the ability of Cardiff Central to act as a terminous turning-back a high-frequency service of trams from one direction and trains from the other. I doubt it could work, and I don't think trams (lots of standing room and few seats) are suitable for the longer journeys on the ValleyLines network (Cardiff-Coryton is about the limit).

Trams on the streets of Central Cardiff would be ridiculous. The main shopping areas (& office blocks) are within 7 minutes walk of both Central & Queen Street Stations. The streets are relatively narrow and full of pedestrians. So, why would you wish to have trams on busy streets? Far better the system we have now with trains segregated from traffic/streets and therefore able to keep to a schedule.

Trams replacing local buses on the streets is also not a good idea as they can’t overtake. Metal on metal is also noisy and the wheels screech on tight corners.

Trains cannot link Cardiff Bay with Cardiff Central, and 25kv probably requires greater clearances from bridges than 750v light-rail OHLE. I think a mix of both heavy-rail and tram could be a good solution, as long as the longer journeys are all on heavy-rail units with plenty of seats (which makes it difficult as there is nowhere to put a depot for the trams, unless they are tram-trains which can run on heavy rail track and hence share Canton with heavy-rail EMUs).

 

[gareth950]

Without an on street section LRT is a non starter surely? How could the heavy rail system cope with a much higher frequency of services within Cardiff?

It most likely won't, which is why all the noises are suggesting that any valleys tram system will terminate at Queen St, but there's still the narrow 2 track bridge over Newport Rd and the flat junction before it to negotiate.
As Envoy has said, the 3 main stations in Cardiff of Central, Queen St and Cathays are all within comfortable walking distance of the employment, retail and education centres they serve, yet because it's widely expected that any valleys tram system will have to terminate at Queen St, the seamless HR link that currently exists between these 3 stations would be severed.

This has been described as an 'interchange penalty' :roll:

 

[gareth950]

which makes it difficult as there is nowhere to put a depot for the trams, unless they are tram-trains which can run on heavy rail track and hence share Canton with heavy-rail EMUs.

Welsh Govt has just recently brought a large plot of industrial land near Taffs Well station, which it has been suggested could be a new 'Metro' depot. http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/how-village-taffs-well-could-12472787

And http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/six-locations-could-heart-5bn-12494775

It's difficult using Wales Online as a reliable, unbiased source however, as they seem to have nothing but gushing praise for the Metro project.

 

[impster]

Alas I think they have it in their heads that they have to do something "innovative" and different to Westminster and will chuck out common sense in the process.

Nail hit firmly on the head there.

What's the odds on DfT taking control of the process before long....

Must be close to evens now...

 

[PHILIPE]

Nail hit firmly on the head there.

What's the odds on DfT taking control of the process before long....

Must be close to evens now...

Or the DFT may just say "You wanted it devolved now you get on with it".

 

[gareth950]

Or the DFT may just say "You wanted it devolved now you get on with it".

Most likely. Chris Grayling said words to that effect when he visited Cardiff and took a trip up to Llanishen on the valley lines in January.
Just imagine the toys that would be thrown in Cardiff Bay if DfT took over now!

 

[Rhydgaled]

Welsh Govt has just recently brought a large plot of industrial land near Taffs Well station, which it has been suggested could be a new 'Metro' depot.

Interesting. Unfortunately, going from Google Earth there looks to be a few tight spots between Radyr and Taff's Well where 4-track wouldn't fit. That would mean, if Taff's Well was a tram depot, everything north of there would also have to be tram. Tram-trains might work though.

IF you could 4-track Radyr to Taff's Well, you could convert Cathays-Radyr to tram and send Aberdare/Merthyr/Treherbert services via Danescourt like so (working on the assumption of 15min intervals on most of the network, and ignoring, for now, my concern about pathing on the GWML between Cardiff and Bridgend):
Treherbert - Danescourt - Rhymney (4tph)
Merthyr - Danescourt - Blackwood (2tph)
Merthyr - Danescourt - Trelewis (2tph)
Aberdare - Danescourt - Blackwood (2tph)
Barry Island - Abertillery (2tph)
Maesteg - Ebbw Vale (2tph)

But that still leaves some Aberdare (2tph), Maesteg (1tph), Swansea (1tph)
Bridgend (2tph) and Barry Island (1tph) services with no electrified destination to go to east of CDF. You have Chepstow (1tph), Cheltenham (1tph) and Hereford (1tph) as bi-mode destinations, but that still leaves 4tph to terminate at a rather busy Cardiff Central.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well one thing is certain 158/159's cascaded by new stock on SWT is not happening for Wales and Borders. Queue rampant speculation about 185's surplus from TPE.....

 

[Envoy]

Well one thing is certain 158/159's cascaded by new stock on SWT is not happening for Wales and Borders. Queue rampant speculation about 185's surplus from TPE.....

I hear that the 185’s are not well regarded?

 

[Gareth Marston]

I hear that the 185’s are not well regarded?

Seem perfect for London Midland just the right size fleet for Bhm to Salop and BHM to Hereford once chase line is wired freeing up 170's. Let's face it there's only 3 potentially homes left for the 185's free from TPE - eMT, LM and ATW.

 

[gareth950]

This document from this webpage on the TfW section of the Welsh Govt website from 1st March suggests WG are indeed starting to specify things.

Specifically:

Within the South Wales Metro:
o Ability to operate at least 4 tph across the Core Valley Lines with
increased frequencies south of Pontypridd and Caerphilly.
o Aim to reduce journey times on Core Valley lines by 20% compared to
present timetable.
o The future Core Valley Lines system is expected to retain or modify
freight operations including co-existing with other potential modes.
o Operate direct services between major residential areas in the Metro
area, including Cardiff City and Bay.
o The potential to be extended to provide additional stations and extensions
including future on street running.

Does the WG not realise the current Cardiff & Valleys local routes network isn't JUST the 'Core Valley lines'? The VOG line from Barry to Rhoose, Llantwit Major and Bridgend also needs major frequency improvements from the current 1tph to 4tph.

 

[Philip]

Seem perfect for London Midland just the right size fleet for Bhm to Salop and BHM to Hereford once chase line is wired freeing up 170's. Let's face it there's only 3 potentially homes left for the 185's free from TPE - eMT, LM and ATW.

I would add Northern to the list too. Once the Pacers go then attention will soon turn to replacing the Sprinters and 185s minus first class would be excellent replacements for 150s.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I would add Northern to the list too. Once the Pacers go then attention will soon turn to replacing the Sprinters and 185s minus first class would be excellent replacements for 150s.

It's first dibs for West Midlands, East Midlands and W&B, in that order though, according to the franchise timetable.
Northern won't get another go until 2025.
The Siemens base at Ardwick might come into it.
EM and W&B have no Siemens stock at the moment (but both pass Ardwick), while WM already has a depot for 350s at Northampton.
GA's 12x170s also come free at some point after the Stadler bi-modes come in.

 

[Philip]

It's first dibs for West Midlands, East Midlands and W&B, in that order though, according to the franchise timetable.
Northern won't get another go until 2025.
The Siemens base at Ardwick might come into it.
EM and W&B have no Siemens stock at the moment (but both pass Ardwick), while WM already has a depot for 350s at Northampton.
GA's 12x170s also come free at some point after the Stadler bi-modes come in.

I thought in addition to the stock we know about Northern were supposed to be receiving additional DMU coaches of which the type hadn't been specified? Have 185s been ruled out of this?

If they go to W&B, would they be suitable trains for Manchester-Cardiff services? The main issue seems to be the SP/MU speed differentials from what I've read; would their fast acceleration compensate for time lost through the speed differentials?

 

[Chester1]

Well one thing is certain 158/159's cascaded by new stock on SWT is not happening for Wales and Borders. Queue rampant speculation about 185's surplus from TPE.....

Or the other old chesnut of splitting Liverpool to Norwich, with TPE using some of the spare 185s for Liverpool to Nottingham. This would free up about a dozen 158s, potentially for Wales and Borders.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or the other old chesnut of splitting Liverpool to Norwich, with TPE using some of the spare 185s for Liverpool to Nottingham.

Are there enough to run it as 6-car? 3 would be inadequate.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's first dibs for West Midlands, East Midlands and W&B, in that order though, according to the franchise timetable.
Northern won't get another go until 2025.
The Siemens base at Ardwick might come into it.
EM and W&B have no Siemens stock at the moment (but both pass Ardwick), while WM already has a depot for 350s at Northampton.
GA's 12x170s also come free at some point after the Stadler bi-modes come in.

The nature of franchising means there no real flexibility to shuffle fleets around the regions to meet demand or new trains coming on stream it all has to be done within the confines of whats available at the time a franchise is let which is then set in stone for several years with the next bidder in line then having to formulate their plans on whats left over.

I imagine the MTR Wales and Border bid did not include any ex SWt 158/159's however one of the others might have gambled that they would be free and are now hurriedly putting Plan B in place....

 

[Chester1]

Are there enough to run it as 6-car? 3 would be inadequate.

Yes, it would need 12 + spares to run doubled up. I think TPE are giving up 22 185s. 158s to Wales and Borders and 185s running Liverpool - Manchester - Sheffield would be much better fits than 185s in Wales.

 

[PHILIPE]

Yes, it would need 12 + spares to run doubled up. I think TPE are giving up 22 185s. 158s to Wales and Borders and 185s running Liverpool - Manchester - Sheffield would be much better fits than 185s in Wales.

TPE won't be giving up any 158s to anybody. They have none to give. If stock is allocated on a one for one basis there will still be a shortage to cover the backlog of overcrowding over the last 15 years.
I'm thinking that whatever happens, a bidder who proposes a Metro would have a better chance of becoming the preferred due to the Welsh Government's obsession with this project, a vanity project in fact.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Well one thing is certain 158/159's cascaded by new stock on SWT is not happening for Wales and Borders. Queue rampant speculation about 185's surplus from TPE.....

I imagine the MTR Wales and Border bid did not include any ex SWt 158/159's however one of the others might have gambled that they would be free and are now hurriedly putting Plan B in place....

Other than a straight-swap with another TOC, I see no way the SWT diesel fleet could have been taken off-lease by 2020 anyway; so not of much use to the urgent crisis the W&B franchisee will have on their hands with 74 non-accessible DMUs to deal with. The 185s are a bit of an unknown; how many (if any) would be available by 2020 (due for release between Nov 2019 - March 2020 I believe).

Seem perfect for London Midland just the right size fleet for Bhm to Salop and BHM to Hereford once chase line is wired freeing up 170's. Let's face it there's only 3 potentially homes left for the 185's free from TPE - eMT, LM and ATW.

I'm not sure the West Midlands ITT allows them to take on any extra DMUs.

If they go to W&B, would they be suitable trains for Manchester-Cardiff services?

185s would not be suitable in my opinion. They are only 3-car, just like the 175s which are too short, and (unlike the 175s) the doors on a 185 are in the wrong place for a regional express service. So the 175s win, but really we need longer trains which given the lack of regional express DMUs means LHCS, or waiting until after 2020 before being able to ease the overcrowding on the route.

I'm thinking that whatever happens, a bidder who proposes a Metro would have a better chance of becoming the preferred due to the Welsh Government's obsession with this project, a vanity project in fact.

The Metro a vanity project? Google defines vanity as:

1. excessive pride in or admiration of one's own appearance or achievements
2. the quality of being worthless or futile

If you are using the first of these two meanings, then you may be right, but the second is far from the case here. Electrification, assuming it happens, should be very worthwhile (especially if they can find a way of going direct from non-accessible Pacers and 150s to electric stock, either by derrogations or clever use of bi-modes mixed with hybrid part-accessible 150s).

 

[krus_aragon]

TPE won't be giving up any 158s to anybody. They have none to give.

The previous poster was referring to the Liverpool-Norwich service (split in half), which is currently operated with 158s by EMT. If TPE took over the Liverpool end, and used185s, then the 158s might become available for W&B.

 

[Philip]

The previous poster was referring to the Liverpool-Norwich service (split in half), which is currently operated with 158s by EMT. If TPE took over the Liverpool end, and used185s, then the 158s might become available for W&B.

There will be too many spare to work solely on Liverpool-Nottingham services, but then not enough spare sets to justify sending 8 or 9 units to a different operator. Plus there's the speed differential issue along the Hope Valley, compared to the 158 which flies along at 90. The 158s seem good enough to continue running these services, as pairs.

I've mentioned North Wales Interurban as a possible good choice in the past. Since it seems they won't be suitable for Cardiff services, perhaps their future lies with connecting Manchester, Crewe and Liverpool with Chester and the North Wales Coast/Holyhead.