Scotrail Franchise - Abellio

[HH]

Sure Abellio are sending a healthy profit bach to the Dutch Government...

I'm pretty sure that they're not.

 

[me123]

For the first time in 14 years passenger numbers have not grown on the Scotrail franchise but remained static.

Is this in any way affected by the prolonged and severely disruptive engineering work in Glasgow Queen Street? I know perfectly well that the answer for many travellers was to choose another way rather than take one of Scotrail's alternative options, so it wouldn't surprise me if growth was masked by a temporary slump in Glasgow Queen Street's passenger numbers.

Or does the data take this into account?

 

[HH]

Is this in any way affected by the prolonged and severely disruptive engineering work in Glasgow Queen Street? I know perfectly well that the answer for many travellers was to choose another way rather than take one of Scotrail's alternative options, so it wouldn't surprise me if growth was masked by a temporary slump in Glasgow Queen Street's passenger numbers.

Or does the data take this into account?

I doubt it; there's no way to come up with a number that you could attach any degree of certainty to. But between that and the strikes, it would seem possible that the drop was a one-off. I also wonder if they normalised for the Borders Railway - that could be done.

 

[me123]

I doubt it; there's no way to come up with a number that you could attach any degree of certainty to. But between that and the strikes, it would seem possible that the drop was a one-off. I also wonder if they normalised for the Borders Railway - that could be done.

Not too difficult. Exclude the data for the affected period and on the affected lines (so everything out of Queen Street High Level from March to August 2016), and then do the same for the year before (March to August 2015). That will show you if there's been growth outwith the period of disruption.

It's not 100%, of course, but if the stagnation could be explained by the closure then this would demonstrate it.

 

[najaB]

It's not 100%, of course, but if the stagnation could be explained by the closure then this would demonstrate it.

I think you would also need to look at other public transport usage numbers across the same period as well.

 

[HH]

Not too difficult. Exclude the data for the affected period and on the affected lines (so everything out of Queen Street High Level from March to August 2016), and then do the same for the year before (March to August 2015). That will show you if there's been growth outwith the period of disruption.

It's not 100%, of course, but if the stagnation could be explained by the closure then this would demonstrate it.

It's not even close to 100% I fear. Railway data comes in periods and Periods 13 (March) and 1 (April) have different numbers of days. Then there's Easter being at different times, school holidays moving and the effect of season ticket factors. And that's the easy stuff. There's the effect of weather, significant events, price rises, Network Rail possessions, railway performance, etc. etc.

Plus there were strikes during the period.

 

[WatcherZero]

A high proportion of users of rail are generally commuters and/or have season tickets and will continue to travel through the disruptions.

 

[me123]

It's not even close to 100% I fear. Railway data comes in periods and Periods 13 (March) and 1 (April) have different numbers of days. Then there's Easter being at different times, school holidays moving and the effect of season ticket factors. And that's the easy stuff. There's the effect of weather, significant events, price rises, Network Rail possessions, railway performance, etc. etc.

Plus there were strikes during the period.

My hypothesis would be that the lack of growth could be accounted for by the Queen Street tunnel closures. To test this, I would look at the data excluding the lines that were directly affected by the closure. This would be any route that would ordinarily operate into Queen Street High Level, and any diversionary route advertised by Scotrail (for example, the line via Airdrie and Bathgate). You would then apply the same statistical model that would ordinarily be used to calculate growth to the remaining data - all the other variables do happen in every other year as well, so I'd assume that the statisticians involved can account for this.

If I'm right and the lack of growth can be explained by the closure of the route into Queen Street, then you'd expect that there would still be growth on the other lines, and there would still be growth on the main lines in the periods not affected by closure. If, on the other hand, you exclude the affected lines and there is still no growth, then you've demonstrated that there may well be a problem with growth on the Scotrail network. This would show you where the problem lies, and putting in the statistical model to account for variables (which, given that growth is a target for the Scotrail franchise, I'm sure/would hope is done anyway) you would get a reasonable estimate of growth.

A high proportion of users of rail are generally commuters and/or have season tickets and will continue to travel through the disruptions.

That isn't what I've seen in reality. Bear in mind that this is a five month closure of a main terminus station - something like this doesn't come along all that often. Whilst a commuter might be willing to put up with minor disruption over a short period of time, something like this really would be enough to push you over the edge and consider alternatives.

1) Not everyone buys annual season tickets, so people buying monthlies could simply not buy a season ticket for the period in question if they chose another way.
2) Even amongst those who bought annual season tickets, I saw quite a few people online demanding a refund of their season ticket; this would suggest to me that they weren't planning to use the train.
3) There are plenty of other options that they could have used. Driving is a viable alternative when you take into account the delays caused by the work and reduced frequency for some journeys. And on the M80 corridor, there are a reasonable number of express bus services into the city.
4) On the advertised alternative route between Glasgow and Edinburgh (via Airdrie and Bathgate), the trains really weren't any busier than they would be normally; that suggests that very few people compared to normal were actually using the train between the two cities.

 

[HH]

My hypothesis would be that the lack of growth could be accounted for by the Queen Street tunnel closures. To test this, I would look at the data excluding the lines that were directly affected by the closure. This would be any route that would ordinarily operate into Queen Street High Level, and any diversionary route advertised by Scotrail (for example, the line via Airdrie and Bathgate). You would then apply the same statistical model that would ordinarily be used to calculate growth to the remaining data - all the other variables do happen in every other year as well, so I'd assume that the statisticians involved can account for this.

I wish I had your certainty. Unfortunately I've seen many growth reports from these "Statisticians" and there's rather more unexplained than there is explained. Maybe there would be a nice clear picture, but my expectation is that it would be as clear as the mud in a Scottish bog on a particularly rainy day in November.

Let's put it another way; growth will certainly have been affected by Queen Street, and by the strikes. And all the other factors I mentioned. Whether there's also a change in the underlying growth will be unclear, at least until we see the next year's results.

 

[me123]

Let's put it another way; growth will certainly have been affected by Queen Street, and by the strikes. And all the other factors I mentioned. Whether there's also a change in the underlying growth will be unclear, at least until we see the next year's results.

Absolutely - next year will be a really interesting one. If my hypothesis is correct and it's entirely down to Queen Street, next year will have a very high growth when compared to the year before (probably as expected when compared to two years prior).

 

[HH]

Absolutely - next year will be a really interesting one. If my hypothesis is correct and it's entirely down to Queen Street, next year will have a very high growth when compared to the year before (probably as expected when compared to two years prior).

Indeed. Whenever something like this last year occurs I always look at the two year growth in the following year. That's when all those numbers the "statisticians" provided the previous year prove their true worth...

 

[Northhighland]

Is this in any way affected by the prolonged and severely disruptive engineering work in Glasgow Queen Street? I know perfectly well that the answer for many travellers was to choose another way rather than take one of Scotrail's alternative options, so it wouldn't surprise me if growth was masked by a temporary slump in Glasgow Queen Street's passenger numbers.

Or does the data take this into account?

As a regular traveller form Inverness to Glasgow the train was equally overcrowded during this period, just ran later than normal and was generally dirtier than normal.

Anecdotally I would say people i know are tired of the constant stream of late running trains, poorly trained staff, poor quality trains with regular things like heating not working, WiFi not working, the few trains with sockets not working. the breakdowns, in general the very poor service. A lot of people have switched to taking the bus, although the roadworks form now to eternity on the A9 make this a less attractive option.

Wouldn't surprise me if the inept management of the network has reached numbers.

 

[HH]

Wouldn't surprise me if the inept management of the network has reached numbers.

Whatever that means, 95%+ of the management remains the same; a few guys at the top changed. However, Inverness has a reputation as being a bit of a 'rogue' depot; it gets visited by top brass once in a blue moon. It's possible that the new Directors aren't aware of the problems. I'd write to the (new) MD; it worked for me when we had similar issues.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Im with North Highland here, there does seam to be a lot of general disgruntlement about train shortages, faults and staff not to mention many other things and Scotrail as is appears unpopular with even some people I know who would previously never have been seen dead on a bus/coach now taking them for cumforts sake.

 

[380101]

As a regular traveller form Inverness to Glasgow the train was equally overcrowded during this period, just ran later than normal and was generally dirtier than normal.

Anecdotally I would say people i know are tired of the constant stream of late running trains, poorly trained staff, poor quality trains with regular things like heating not working, WiFi not working, the few trains with sockets not working. the breakdowns, in general the very poor service. A lot of people have switched to taking the bus, although the roadworks form now to eternity on the A9 make this a less attractive option.

Wouldn't surprise me if the inept management of the network has reached numbers.

I can't speak for staff at Inverness, but I and I'm sure other Scotrail staff on this forum take exception to your comment of "poorly trained staff". I can assure you that we are all highly trained in our respective roles. I suspect Inverness and Wick depots feel isolated and as if they have been forgotten about by Abellio. This will greatly affect their morale (I am not condoning bad manners or poor customer service - that just **** poor whatever the reasons).

2016 was an extremely difficult year for Scotrail due to major engineering works. This extra pressure was not helped by the endless political bitching towards the 2nd half of the year over what amounted to nothing really. I'll be honest and say staff morale isn't very high within Scotrail as most of us feel that Abellio have failed to honour alot of their pledges towards staff. They ran staff roadshows before the franchise began and promised us "the world" and that it would be a changed culture compared to how First had ran it. It's worse than what it was under First at the moment. Hopefully the new MD will shake things up a bit and things will improve.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Thanks for your open and honest reply 380101, reminding us all yet again that there are staff who genuinely care and would like to see things change. Im saddened but unsurprised to hear things are not good for you guys just now, the pax have noticed and when alls said and done Id wager many would come down on the staff side all things considdered.

Keep up the hard work, I dont know and rather doubt youv ever driven me as I live in the East but thanks all the same for carrying on in a lousy sounding situation

 

[92002]

Whatever that means, 95%+ of the management remains the same; a few guys at the top changed. However, Inverness has a reputation as being a bit of a 'rogue' depot; it gets visited by top brass once in a blue moon. It's possible that the new Directors aren't aware of the problems. I'd write to the (new) MD; it worked for me when we had similar issues.

The new MD has not arrived as yet. Not due till after the Summer. Meantime being looked after by an Abellio UK manager.

 

[HH]

The new MD has not arrived as yet. Not due till after the Summer. Meantime being looked after by an Abellio UK manager.

Dominic Booth, the UK MD IIRC. He's a good guy; write to him.

 

[Carlisle]

I can't speak for staff at Inverness, but I and I'm sure other I'll be honest and say staff morale isn't very high within Scotrail as most of us feel that Abellio have failed to honour alot of their pledges towards staff. They ran staff roadshows before the franchise began and promised us "the world" and that it would be a changed culture compared to how First had ran it. .

Surely If we've learned anything from the whole GTR debacle, its that if you start a franchise intending to make controversial changes then it's best to be upfront, clear and committed long term, or alternatively don't endure all that hassle and run it like SWT or the old Northern did by trying your hardest to keep the unions always on side, Abellio probably believed there was some sort of third way, there wasn't

 

[scotraildriver]

Remember too that staff get just as frustrated as customers when things aren't right and we are unable to do our jobs properly. I work on the diesel fleet and the biggest frustration is the constant short formations at the moment. But you have to remember that due to the way transport Scotland specified the franchise and the refurbishment timetable Abellio are trying to operate the diesel side with 24 coaches a day than First did:

4x 170 units transferred to Southern
2x 170 units under refurbishment
2x158 under refurbishment
1x156 under refurbishment

Add to this the whole new borders railway and it's easy to see why the diesel fleet is under so much pressure resulting in more breakdowns, delay etc. Unfortunately until the electrics start on the E & G it's difficult to see any short term improvement.

 

[Carntyne]

^^^ The electrics start soon but it's getting over this summer that's going to be an issue. Staff are working like dogs to keep the place going.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I fear the summer, in particular the Edinburgh Festival and mass influx of visitors to the highlands may just break the system which due to so many factors is near to that point anyway.

Good to know the interim MD is a good bloke, I may well write to him not so much for a moan but to express a few concerns and perhaps praise where due.

 

[Blindtraveler]

How are the 158 refurbs going anyway? Have they started the Haymarket units yet and if so is the need for a major strip out slowing things down further?

 

[Jay92044]

How are the 158 refurbs going anyway? Have they started the Haymarket units yet and if so is the need for a major strip out slowing things down further?

Still some Inverness ones left to do, I think 705,708,720,725 are left to do, 710 is in works at the moment and possibly another. Meanwhile 158722 is heading to Glasgow Works for repairs to its cab today.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Thats been a while out of traffic, cant be helping things.

 

[Highland37]

As a regular traveller form Inverness to Glasgow the train was equally overcrowded during this period, just ran later than normal and was generally dirtier than normal.

Anecdotally I would say people i know are tired of the constant stream of late running trains, poorly trained staff, poor quality trains with regular things like heating not working, WiFi not working, the few trains with sockets not working. the breakdowns, in general the very poor service. A lot of people have switched to taking the bus, although the roadworks form now to eternity on the A9 make this a less attractive option.

Wouldn't surprise me if the inept management of the network has reached numbers.

I agree with some of that. The units are pretty awful sometimes but I live in Inverness and don't see a huge increase in bus traffic south or a mass abandonment of the train.

More concerning is that the railway industry is pretty silent on HML upgrades, big ones, as when the A9 is improved, it will be faster and cheaper for trucks and buses. That will drive the tiny amounts of freight off the railway and the industry appears to be asleep on this.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I was saying this only the other day to a friend actually. There are already certain key coach departures to the North which are quite busy and post A9 upgrade it will Im sure be the objective of the coach opperaters to ramp up services to the Highlands and market them effectively.

 

[Marklund]

Remember too that staff get just as frustrated as customers when things aren't right and we are unable to do our jobs properly. I work on the diesel fleet and the biggest frustration is the constant short formations at the moment. But you have to remember that due to the way transport Scotland specified the franchise and the refurbishment timetable Abellio are trying to operate the diesel side with 24 coaches a day than First did:

4x 170 units transferred to Southern
2x 170 units under refurbishment
2x158 under refurbishment
1x156 under refurbishment

Add to this the whole new borders railway and it's easy to see why the diesel fleet is under so much pressure resulting in more breakdowns, delay etc. Unfortunately until the electrics start on the E & G it's difficult to see any short term improvement.

Didn't some of the small infill electrification not cascade a few units, (Paisley Canal, and Cumbernauld), so it's not quite as many as 24?
Plus the addition of a loco hauled set, of course.

 

[Blindtraveler]

It is my understanding that that particular capacity has been swallowed up by borders, strengthaning and refurbs.

 

[Marklund]

It is my understanding that that particular capacity has been swallowed up by borders, strengthaning and refurbs.

That's the point, they're in a similar position to First.
Down a few units maybe, but not as many as the top line figure.