EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[meridian2]

I think it is in the EU's interest to negotiate with us. But what the Brexiteers see as negotiation- that the EU continue to let us use the squash court and the sauna even though we've cancelled the gym subscription- really is living in cloud cuckoo land.

What Brexiteers (vile neologism) mostly seek, IMHO, is border control. If Cameron had returned waving a bit of paper that offered the UK any kind of control over who gets to live here, I think the referendum vote would have swung the other way. That he didn't illustrates how wedded the EU are to a completely borderless Europe, and an expanding one. The idea of passports and visas struck to the very heart of the European project. It shouldn't do, people travelled through border control and formally applied for domicile for years without issue, but complete internal permeability is an article of EU faith.

One would hope the pre-EEC situation will obtain, with visit and permanent residence based on the usual simple formalities.

 

[EM2]

Did you know that the form to apply for permanent residence in Ireland consists of five pages, and it is free to apply.
In Germany, the form to apply for permanent residence consists of two pages, and it costs €8.
In the UK, the form to apply for permanent residence consists of eighty-five pages, and it costs £65.

 

[bramling]

What Brexiteers (vile neologism) mostly seek, IMHO, is border control. If Cameron had returned waving a bit of paper that offered the UK any kind of control over who gets to live here, I think the referendum vote would have swung the other way. That he didn't illustrates how wedded the EU are to a completely borderless Europe, and an expanding one. The idea of passports and visas struck to the very heart of the European project. It shouldn't do, people travelled through border control and formally applied for domicile for years without issue, but complete internal permeability is an article of EU faith.

One would hope the pre-EEC situation will obtain, with visit and permanent residence based on the usual simple formalities.

It's hard to say, you may well be right.

Personally, I would have still voted leave even without the issue of free movement, and no doubt many others would too, but it's certainly possible the result might have tipped the other way. Likewise if immigration hadn't skyrocketed since the eastern enlargement then the issue may have had less salience. The fact that the EU was totally unprepared to compromise on this principle no doubt didn't help their case, if they really wanted Britain to remain a member then concessions would have been given.

 

[bramling]

One theory is that immigrants are willing to work for lower wages, so it stifles pressure for wage increases. Hence free movement of labour is bad.

This, of course, ignores the fact that UK citizens are free to go work in countries that have higher wages.

Simple economics - barring any form of regulation, wages are just like anything else in being determined by the interaction demand and supply. So if demand for labour increases at a lesser rate than the supply of labour, wages don't rise as fast. This effect is felt more in lower-skilled roles, as there are fewer barriers (e.g. training needs) to entering the labour market.

Meanwhile, there is of course the effect of population growth (not just down to immigration of course) on various things, in particular services and infrastructure. The UK is already comparatively densely populated, especially in the London area, and reality is there is pressure on services. For various reasons the services aren't keeping up with demand. This is where it comes down to controls on immigration - bringing in someone who can work in the NHS may be good, but bringing in someone who is going to do a low-wage unskilled role may well be more of a burden.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The fact that the EU was totally unprepared to compromise on this principle no doubt didn't help their case, if they really wanted Britain to remain a member then concessions would have been given.

Britain already has and has had plenty of concessions: we're not part of Schengen, we have juxtaposed borders in France and Belgium, the restrictions on A2 and A7 nationals were at our behest.

But free trade within Europe includes the free trade of people. That isn't really up for negotiation. Indeed, both Switzerland and Norway are part of the Schengen area even though they're not in the EU, and that was the price they had to pay to trade with the EU.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Simple economics - barring any form of regulation, wages are just like anything else in being determined by the interaction demand and supply.

That works both ways though. Companies generally claim that if the price for labour is too high, they simply won't bother buying it. They use this as arguments against the National Minimum Wage and they use it as an argument against extending employment rights.

I can't help but think that these people blaming the Polish for everything, and expecting a big wage rise after Brexit, are going to be in for a bit of a shock.

 

[meridian2]

It's hard to say, you may well be right.

Personally, I would have still voted leave even without the issue of free movement, and no doubt many others would too, but it's certainly possible the result might have tipped the other way. Likewise if immigration hadn't skyrocketed since the eastern enlargement then the issue may have had less salience. The fact that the EU was totally unprepared to compromise on this principle no doubt didn't help their case, if they really wanted Britain to remain a member then concessions would have been given.

As you say it's impossible to be sure, and the issues go deeper, but the Tory machine would have sold immigration control for all it's worth as Britain regaining sovereignty. I reckon that alone would have swung it 51/49, probably much more.

 

[furnessvale]

I'm sure it will be one of the first things to be discussed after Article 50 is invoked.

Unless the Lords' amendment sticks, in which case the EU will have no interest whatsoever in prioritising it, and why should they?

 

[Trog]

Did you know that the form to apply for permanent residence in Ireland consists of five pages, and it is free to apply.
In Germany, the form to apply for permanent residence consists of two pages, and it costs €8.
In the UK, the form to apply for permanent residence consists of eighty-five pages, and it costs £65.

That makes the German form look really expensive at €4 a page.

 

[Senex]

One thing's for sure, it's not in the EU's interest to negotiate anything with us.

That's just what the Tory Right and their supporters totally fail to understand.

All I keep hearing is May rabbiting on about "the best deal for Britain".

And of course the 27 will want "the best deal for the EU" and will fight hard for that. Maybe there will be a few areas where the best deals for both sides will coincide, but in most areas that is unlikely to be true and we can expect the EU to fight very hard to look after its own interests -- and rightly so. Britain is scarcely in any position to be asking for favours.

 

[meridian2]

I can't help but think that these people blaming the Polish for everything, and expecting a big wage rise after Brexit, are going to be in for a bit of a shock.

Of the newer EU members, Poles are some of the better trained and more internationally mobile. When the Irish economy went belly up Ireland's airport car parks found they weren't making any money. They discovered it was due to Polish owned cars being left in parking spaces as they'd emigrated elsewhere. Where they stay Polish people tend to become part of the host society within a generation, with well educated aspirational English speaking children.

That shouldn't suggest it would be good for Britain or Poland to absorb a couple of million Poles over a short time, or any other EU nation. The Polish would be the first to understand the logic.

 

[Barn]

Well tough! I hope the EU don't give the UK a good deal.

Sadly this is something that one now hears all too frequently.

There is a sort of person that would prefer to win an argument and feel better about themselves than for their country to achieve a good result.

They would rather be miserable and able to say "I told you so" than be pleasantly suprised and have to say "well, I suppose it wasn't so bad".

Bear in mind, we're not talking about predictions, we're talking about hopes.

 

[Jonny]

How is allowing EU citizens who are currently here to remain in the UK a sign of weakness? Given that Britain also has lots of its own citizens living throughout the EU, and we presumably would like it to stay that way, should we not be looking to go straight for that kind of agreement to avoid things from becoming more sour than they already are?

My thoughts exactly - I voted to leave, but not to kick anyone out for the sake of it. It is of course necessary to ensure that British nationals overseas (in the "other 27") are also protected.

 

[bramling]

Britain already has and has had plenty of concessions: we're not part of Schengen, we have juxtaposed borders in France and Belgium, the restrictions on A2 and A7 nationals were at our behest.

But free trade within Europe includes the free trade of people. That isn't really up for negotiation. Indeed, both Switzerland and Norway are part of the Schengen area even though they're not in the EU, and that was the price they had to pay to trade with the EU.

There we go then; public opinion reached the point where Britain no longer wanted to be part of this (*), and the rest is history.

* One wonders at what point public opinion shifted - it's quite possible the referendum may have still produced an 'out' result in the 1990s after Maastricht, for example. With polling generally having been a little discredited recently, we don't really know how much of a factor immigration/free movement really was in the result. Certainly all the people I know who voted leave say they would still have done so even if free movement wasn't an issue.

 

[Jonny]

Well tough! I hope the EU don't give the UK a good deal.

Sadly this is something that one now hears all too frequently.

There is a sort of person that would prefer to win an argument and feel better about themselves than for their country to achieve a good result.

They would rather be miserable and able to say "I told you so" than be pleasantly suprised and have to say "well, I suppose it wasn't so bad".

Bear in mind, we're not talking about predictions, we're talking about hopes.

That is one more reason I wanted out of the EU - there is too much EU-inspired self-hatred going on, and just to make it worse they (try to) reflect it onto others. It is perfectly right that the UK government seeks the best deal without ill-will from its own citizens.

 

[bramling]

That's just what the Tory Right and their supporters totally fail to understand.

And of course the 27 will want "the best deal for the EU" and will fight hard for that. Maybe there will be a few areas where the best deals for both sides will coincide, but in most areas that is unlikely to be true and we can expect the EU to fight very hard to look after its own interests -- and rightly so. Britain is scarcely in any position to be asking for favours.

That's all true, but we weren't getting anywhere whilst in the EU. Eventually there came a point where public opinion decided we had to take the plunge and bail out. Personally I think this may prove to have been a timely move, as there are other structural failings within the EU, like their ideological attachment to the single currency. I'm not sure there will be an EU in its current form in 2025, especially in the (unlikely) event Le Pen wins in France.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Of the newer EU members, Poles are some of the better trained and more internationally mobile. When the Irish economy went belly up Ireland's airport car parks found they weren't making any money. They discovered it was due to Polish owned cars being left in parking spaces as they'd emigrated elsewhere. Where they stay Polish people tend to become part of the host society within a generation, with well educated aspirational English speaking children.

Going back to more historical times of post WW2, my father had held the second chair of Mathematics at Warsaw University in the 1930s and he came to Britain with four colleagues, via Sweden, prior to the outbreak of war.

My two younger brothers and I all gained a First in our respective studies at University. We all subscribed to the benefits that education offered and all my children, nieces and nephews obtained good degrees at University and they all hold good employment positions and own their own homes.

 

[bramling]

That is one more reason I wanted out of the EU - there is too much EU-inspired self-hatred going on, and just to make it worse they (try to) reflect it onto others. It is perfectly right that the UK government seeks the best deal without ill-will from its own citizens.

One spin-off benefit of Brexit, although not something which would have been a factor in my voting one way or other, is that at least once we have finally left hopefully that will be the end of the constant strained relationship we have had with the EU for many years - it's been going on all my lifetime, even thinking back to the 1980s and things like Margaret Thatcher and the rebate debacle.

Meanwhile, Europe has been a constant source of interference within our own domestic politics for the last generation - for example much of the chaos within the Conservative party during the Major government had its roots in the European question - with hindsight how ridiculous that it became public knowledge that a serving Prime Minister felt a need to refer to some of his own cabinet ministers as "*******s". Today we now see the EU even having the potential to break up the UK as a result of the Scottish issue. I really hope that all this will become a thing of the past once things have settled down. UK/EU politics have had a toxic flavour right through my lifetime, and I'd like the second half of my life to be characterised by something different.

 

[bramling]

As you say it's impossible to be sure, and the issues go deeper, but the Tory machine would have sold immigration control for all it's worth as Britain regaining sovereignty. I reckon that alone would have swung it 51/49, probably much more.

Again, quite possibly. But even with the full weight of the Cameron government coming very strongly in favour of remain, the result went the other way. Unlike Blair who is a toxic brand, I think it's fair to say Cameron was a reasonably respected PM, even to those occupying alternative positions on the political spectrum.

It would actually be very interesting to have a referendum purely on immigration, just to see what the result would actually be. Something like "Do you want (1) Unlimited immigration (2) Immigration to fill defined skills shortages only (3) Zero immigration (4) Zero immigration plus not allowing EU citizens to remain in UK after Brexit. The privacy of the polling booth can produce surprising results... I suspect (2) would probably win, but I also suspect (4) would poll higher than people might expect.

 

[WelshBluebird]

It would actually be very interesting to have a referendum purely on immigration, just to see what the result would actually be. Something like "Do you want (1) Unlimited immigration (2) Immigration to fill defined skills shortages only (3) Zero immigration (4) Zero immigration plus not allowing EU citizens to remain in UK after Brexit. The privacy of the polling booth can produce surprising results... I suspect (2) would probably win, but I also suspect (4) would poll higher than people might expect.

Of course, just because people may vote for it in a referendum does not make it a good idea (imagine a vote on getting rid of income tax for example).

Also I wonder in such a scenario how many people would vote for option 4, but totally be ignorant to how it would affect them and their friends and colleagues (certainly the phrase "we didn't think it would affect you" comes to mind).

 

[Dave1987]

That is one more reason I wanted out of the EU - there is too much EU-inspired self-hatred going on, and just to make it worse they (try to) reflect it onto others. It is perfectly right that the UK government seeks the best deal without ill-will from its own citizens.

Mrs May and her Government are tearing the country apart. She and her Government have no one to blame but themselves for the ill feelings they have created. I hope they offer her a terrible deal. She is already looking at thousands of job losses from pandering to the extremists in her party. Maybe once the EU has offered her a terrible deal and the job losses start to mount they might reconsider this 'hard Brexit'. Huge amounts of those who voted to leave won't be alive to suffer the consequences of leaving the biggest trading block in the world.

 

[Senex]

Mrs May and her Government are tearing the country apart. She and her Government have no one to blame but themselves for the ill feelings they have created. I hope they offer her a terrible deal. She is already looking at thousands of job losses from pandering to the extremists in her party.

Well said. Of course, it doesn't help at all that the leader of the only party that can offer her a real challenge is busy doing all he can to pander to the extremists in his party -- no refuge for the Centerists among us!

 

[Trog]

I hope they offer her a terrible deal. She is already looking at thousands of job losses from pandering to the extremists in her party. Maybe once the EU has offered her a terrible deal and the job losses start to mount they might reconsider this 'hard Brexit'.

You hope for a terrible deal, that would mean even more job losses.

Surely the thing to hope for is that it goes as well as possible so the minimum number of people are harmed, on both sides of the channel.

 

[Dave1987]

You hope for a terrible deal, that would mean even more job losses.

Surely the thing to hope for is that it goes as well as possible so the minimum number of people are harmed, on both sides of the channel.

A terrible deal would force May to stop pandering to the right wing extremists in her party or face mass job losses.

 

[najaB]

Mrs May and her Government are tearing the country apart. She and her Government have no one to blame but themselves for the ill feelings they have created.

Bear in mind that Mrs May was ('reluctantly' as she says) pro-Remain.

 

[Senex]

Bear in mind that Mrs May was ('reluctantly' as she says) pro-Remain.

She's certainly moved whole-heartedly and enthusiastically to the other side now!

 

[Dave1987]

Going back to more historical times of post WW2, my father had held the second chair of Mathematics at Warsaw University in the 1930s and he came to Britain with four colleagues, via Sweden, prior to the outbreak of war.

My two younger brothers and I all gained a First in our respective studies at University. We all subscribed to the benefits that education offered and all my children, nieces and nephews obtained good degrees at University and they all hold good employment positions and own their own homes.

This post Paul is complete case in point as far as I'm concerned to your entire mantra on things. It's the constant I'm alright Jack philosophy. Your family have all been educated to a high standard, you all own your own home, and no doubt you all have gold plated pensions with a lovely big lump sum. Many hundreds of thousands or even millions would love to be in your position. Many people can only dream of getting on the property ladder.

 

[najaB]

She's certainly moved whole-heartedly and enthusiastically to the other side now!

She's been given a job to do and intends to do it how she sees best to do it. It doesn't mean that she relishes it.

 

[Tetchytyke]

She's been given a job to do and intends to do it how she sees best to do it. It doesn't mean that she relishes it.

I think she's a pragmatist. She kept very quiet in the referendum whilst the others tore each other to shreds, she did the same in the leadership vote. She'll say what she thinks will give her power. She didn't know a principled stand if it bought her a £1000 pair of leather trousers.

And right now, the right wing UKIP fruitloops are ruling the roost. I hope the lefties who voted Leave feel pleased.

That's the reason why she's so determined to promise "hard Brexit", even though there's no need to. It's not to start negotiations with the EU, it's to keep the whackos in her party quiet.

As for immigration, the awkward truth is a significant minority of people are racist and will vote for "send the buggers back", regardless of consequences. Couple that with understandable but misdirected anger at foreigners "stealing" jobs, and we are where we are.

Sven Hassel books are looking less like pulp fiction and more like prophecy.

 

[najaB]

I think she's a pragmatist. She kept very quiet in the referendum whilst the others tore each other to shreds, she did the same in the leadership vote. She'll say what she thinks will give her power. She didn't know a principled stand if it bought her a £1000 pair of leather trousers.

I agree with most of that, but she's never struck me as being driven by a lust for power. She seems more to be driven to be successful, even if she has to be ruthless to get there.